NFL Week 9 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 9 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 5.
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SUNDAY, NOV. 8

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: Joe Burrow and Michael Penix Jr. are both coming off career days: Burrow notched a career-best six total touchdowns in an overtime win; Penix threw a career-worst four interceptions in a rain-soaked loss. But I'm not here today to talk about either quarterback. Rather, I'd like to spotlight a Bengals receiver -- and it isn't the one we usually fawn over. Yes, this is a Tee Higgins appreciation blurb. Typically overshadowed by perennial Pro Bowler Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins currently ranks second in the NFL (behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba) with 636 receiving yards, putting him on pace for nearly 1,800 yards on the season. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder has always been a beast at the catch point, but he's become a true monster after the catch this season, owning a career-high rate in missed tackles forced (27.9%, per Next Gen Stats). In related news, NFL Research tells me that Burrow and Higgins comfortably boast the highest passer rating of any QB-WR combo in the league (min. 45 targets) at 132.3. Of course, Burrow and Chase still rank fifth in that category at 113.6, leading me to the larger point here. We've all been saying Cincinnati has two WR1s for years; nowadays, that almost feels like an undersell. The Bengals have two of the most frightening offensive weapons in the league at the moment, with Higgins (10/155/2) and Chase (11/141/1) both posting primo stat lines last Sunday. And this week, they draw an Atlanta CB group that's been marred by injuries and inconsistency. In a potential shootout on the international stage, give me the league's best receiving duo.

Why Gennaro picked the Panthers: Riding a four-game win streak, Denver has shot to the top of the AFC West. And yet, there are still plenty of reasons to doubt these Broncos. The offense, quite frankly, is boring. (Well, until Bo Nix decides to put together a game-winning drive.) And the defense, while solid in some of the advanced statistics, just hasn't been the shutdown unit of the past two seasons, ranking 20th against the pass, 25th against the run and 25th on third down. Yes, Denver's a perfect 4-0 at home, compiling an impressive collection of victories (over the Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks and Chiefs). But this week's game is in Charlotte. And away from Mile High, the Broncos have been rather unremarkable, beating the also-rans (Chargers, Cardinals) and losing to the contenders (Chiefs, 49ers). Which brings us to the Panthers: Are they an also-ran or a contender? Honestly, it's kind of hard to say. Despite being below .500, they currently sit atop a dull NFC South. And while they opened October with an impressive win over the Lions, they closed the month with one-sided defeats to the Buccaneers and Packers. Consequently, this feels like a midseason hinge game, especially with Carolina set to hit the road in three of the next four weeks. Now, it's possible Denver's pass rush just overwhelms Carolina's battered offensive line. And the firing of DC Ejiro Evero could either spark or spike the Panthers' defense. But with Carolina having a few extra days to recuperate and regroup following last week's appearance on Thursday Night Football, I envision Dave Canales rallying his plucky team to a narrow home win over a Broncos squad that currently feels far closer to 6-3 than 7-2.

Why Jeremy picked the Cowboys: It's a matchup of fire sale vs. fire everybody! The Colts and Cowboys are entering Sunday's game at arguably the lowest points of each of their seasons. Indy is more focused on the trade deadline than the play between the lines, despite what Shane Steichen has to say. Dallas is coming off an unthinkable choke job at home against the Cardinals, casting doubt on whether it can really compete in a limp NFC East. Something's gotta give. Jonathan Taylor is set up for a big day against Dallas, the 32nd-ranked run defense in the league, but the Colts RB has recently been corralled by opposing defenses while trade rumors swirl. The more defining matchup Sunday will be whether Indianapolis can slow down Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who can put up yards and points against the Colts' 30th-ranked scoring defense. With Javonte Williams getting good touches against the league's least-efficient run defense, the Cowboys should wrangle the Colts on Sunday -- unless their lasso loosens in the second half again.

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: While both teams enter Week 9 on a losing streak, there are not many games that could offer a better get-right environment to the Chiefs than a meeting with the Jets at home. Kansas City's offense has taken a step back with injury woes at receiver and defenses bottling up Kenneth Walker III, but Gang Green should offer far less resistance than Seattle and Denver did in the last two weeks. Aaron Glenn's crew has allowed 30.7 points per game in its three-game losing streak, second-most in the league during that span. No team has allowed more EPA per dropback over the last two weeks than New York (0.53), and that was against the likes of Malik Willis and Kirk Cousins. Glenn's offense is coming off a season-high 33-point performance, but Geno Smith might be without his top weapon, Garrett Wilson, who is in the concussion protocol. It's been more than two years since the Jets won on the road against an above-.500 team, and it would take a very uninspired performance from Patrick Mahomes and Co. to end that skid on Sunday.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: On Friday, Jets coach Aaron Glenn said Garrett Wilson will not play in Sunday's game.

Why Bobby picked the Lions: Miami has played better after its Week 6 bye, beating the Jets and then holding an ill-fated, double-digit halftime lead over the Patriots, but Detroit also seems to be finding its stride. After going 2-2 over the first month of the season -- with the two wins feeling far more contested than the losses -- the Lions have now rattled off three consecutive victories. Detroit's Achilles' heel, the defense, has improved during the winning streak. The Lions have allowed their three lowest point totals and three lowest yardage totals of the season in the past three contests, giving up a per-game average of 17.7 points and 305.7 yards since Week 5 (compared to 31.8 points and 423.8 yards in Weeks 1-4). It's a touch dramatic to call a Nov. 8 game for a 5-2 team a must-win, but that's how brutal the NFC North is. The Lions simply can't afford to drop a game against a one-win team when they have four tough divisional matchups still to go -- plus dates with the Patriots, a resurgent Buccaneers club, a Falcons team that knocked the 49ers off their unbeaten perch and the NFC East-leading Giants. They know that and, as the superior squad, they'll play like it.

Why Brooke picked the Saints: Shedeur Sanders is in line to start for the Browns with Deshaun Watson, who was playing his best ball since 2020, entering concussion protocol earlier this week. The biggest difference with Sanders under center appears to be his willingness to stretch the field, as his average of 7.1 air yards per target in 2025 trumps Watson's 6.7 mark through eight games this season. Sanders is also working with better receivers than he did a year ago with rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion earning big roles in Todd Monken's offense. None of that will ultimately matter if the run game is dormant -- as it was last week (34 yards) in Pittsburgh. The Saints' defense has been anything but great against the run, allowing 139.4 rush yards per game (29th in the NFL) and giving up north of 100 yards in all but one game in 2026. But I do see this being a get-right game for New Orleans on all fronts, with the Saints fresh off the bye. Changes were made to the run game (firing run-game coordinator T.J. Paganetti, signing RB Audric Estimé) and the kicking ranks (Charlie Smyth is expected to handle duties after Daniel Carlson's release), and the entire roster got a little healthier. First-round receiver Jordyn Tyson returned to practice and could be a boon -- if he does indeed make his NFL debut this week -- for Tyler Shough opposite Chris Olave. Getting Kelvin Banks Jr. back along an O-line that has struggled to keep Shough clean in the pocket will significantly benefit Kellen Moore's unit whenever Banks returns to game action. Sanders can smile all he wants, but the Saints will get the last laugh Sunday.

Why Jeremy picked the Giants: In a meeting of former Michigan Men, J.J. McCarthy and Joe Milton III (backups on other franchises in September) will renew one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries to kick off November. McCarthy will get his second start leading the Giants offense, while Milton, on his third team, will see his first-ever NFL start for Philadelphia after being called on to replace an ineffective Tanner McKee. The G-Men have played close games under John Harbaugh -- they've entered the last minute of each of their tilts separated on one score or less, save for the Rams debacle -- and this one should be no different, even against a beat-up Eagles side. Philly historically plays New York well at home -- the Giants have dropped 12 straight at a hostile Lincoln Financial Field -- and the infusion of Milton to the offense could provide a spark for Nick Sirianni's squad. Milton is a bomb-thrower, averaging the second-most air yards per attempt since 2024 (min. 50 attempts) in his relief appearances. McCarthy has had a similar run of play in his six quarters with Big Blue, helping make Malik Nabers the reigning Offensive Player of the Month. There will be big plays and maybe bigger mistakes made in Sunday's game, but unlike the injury-riddled Eagles, the '26 Giants know how to win tight tussles and should ride the Amtrak back to New Jersey victorious.

Why Jeremy picked the Rams: Sean McVay will coach the Rams in Landover on Sunday for the first time in front of a home crowd since he left for Los Angeles in 2017 after three years as Washington's OC. (McVay's Rams made this long trip east in 2020, but that year never happened if you think about it.) McVay returns to the nation's capital at a critical juncture, with the once-Super Bowl favorites at 4-4 but on a two-game winning streak. The Commanders are also amid a midseason turnaround after a get-right win out of the bye over the wounded Eagles. But Jayden Daniels and Co. may be running into a buzzsaw in a Rams defense that could return Myles Garrett, who was back at practice this week. If the reigning DPOY is in the lineup, he will line up alongside three-time DPOY Aaron Donald for the first time since both joined the Rams this offseason. Perhaps it'll be the straw that breaks opponents' backs; Donald has yet to log a sack this season. Daniels has played carefully since his injury; he hasn't thrown a pick this season, and Washington has just three giveaways on the year. The QB may need to let it loose Sunday to keep up with Matthew Stafford and the fourth-ranked Rams offense. This one will be closer than most expect, but L.A. presents a much more difficult task for the Commanders than Tanner McKee's Eagles.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: On Friday, NFL Network's Mike Garafolo and Ian Rapoport reported that Myles Garrett (knee) is expected to play on Sunday.

Why Dan picked the Texans: When the Chargers take the field on Sunday, it will have been nearly a full month since they last scored a touchdown. Yes, there was a bye week during that stretch, but they've still gone nine full quarters without putting the ball in the end zone, scoring just 15 points (five field goals) in that span. In other words, WOOF. Now, the Texans have been nearly as disappointing as their Week 9 opponent. Last we saw Houston, it was being overpowered in overtime by a J.J. McCarthy-led offense to fall to 2-5. DeMeco Ryans' squad enjoys a rest advantage, though, coming off a bye, and has done a respectable job of putting points on the board thanks to a reassuring Year 4 showing from C.J. Stroud that flies a bit under the radar because of the team's struggles. The outlook might be bleak for the Texans right now, but if they have any hope of salvaging their season, they cannot let the Chargers win their first game since Dec. 21, 2025.

Why Brooke picked the 49ers: The Raiders snapped their four-game skid with a road victory over the Jets; parlaying that into two straight Ws isn't likely, as they head to Santa Clara to face the 49ers. It's true that San Francisco struggled big-time with turnovers prior to the bye, with the offense coughing up eight giveaways in the last three games, and Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans are still dealing with injuries. It's also true that these Niners have the advantage in most major categories, per NFL Pro. The two exceptions are overall passing efficiency and pressure rate when the Raiders' offense and 49ers' defense share the field. Enter Nick Bosa, who's in line to play for the first time since Sept. 20, and DeForest Buckner, whom GM John Lynch brought back to San Francisco during the break. Per Next Gen Stats, when aligned as a DT, Buckner recorded four sacks (tied for second-most at the position), 15 pressures (tied for 16th), six quick pressures (tied for ninth) and eight quarterback hits (tied for fourth) through the first seven weeks of the season, despite being double-teamed 83 times as a pass rusher (tied for seventh-most among DTs). In addition, he has one missed tackle on 32 tackle attempts, tied for the fewest at the position among those with 25 or more attempts. Buckner's addition should pay dividends for San Francisco moving forward, beginning Sunday against the visiting Raiders.

Why Brooke picked the Patriots: The Packers and Patriots have had the same results every week of the 2026 season, and I pray they don't follow suit in Week 9 because that would mean a dreaded tie (please no!). These clubs have won four of their last five games, significantly improving upon their rocky starts, and feature many similar aspects, including top-10 defenses (the countdown to Micah Parsons' return to game action is on!) and quarterbacks who aren't afraid to heave it deep. Green Bay's Jordan Love leads the NFL with 21 completions of 25-plus yards and downfield pass yards (1,253) in 2026, per Next Gen Stats. New England's Drake Maye sits third in both categories but first in pass TDs of 40-plus yards (four), so we should expect some explosive plays come Sunday, regardless of which pass catchers are healthy enough to take the field. The one area that continues to trip me up is the Packers' run game, That unit welcomed Josh Jacobs back from the Commissioner's Exempt List two games ago and nothing's changed. Green Bay's averaging an NFL-worst 60.6 rush yards per game in 2026 -- which would be the fewest by any team in a season since the 1970 merger -- and a ghastly 2.9 yards per carry. I'm not confident that changes Sunday against a New England defense allowing the sixth-fewest rush yards per game (92.6). It's a weakness the Packers have been able to overcome in past weeks, but it'll catch up to them this time.

Why Gennaro picked the Seahawks: In their first game of this season, the Cardinals upset the overrated Chargers, only to be smashed by the Sam Darnold-less Seahawks on the following Sunday. In their first game of this month, the Cardinals upset the overrated Cowboys, and look who's on the slate this Sunday: the Sam Darnold-less Seahawks! With Darnold sidelined this week by a fresh quad injury, Seattle plans to roll out Drew Lock against the Cards once again (as long as the backup QB isn't hindered by a recent elbow issue). Lock performed admirably in his winning spot start at Arizona back in Week 2, tossing three touchdown passes to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in an efficient outing that saw him complete over 73% of his throws and post a dazzling 139.1 passer rating. Can the second-stringer log a second win over this division rival? With JSN at his disposal and Seattle's defense on his side, Lock doesn't have to play hero -- especially against an Arizona team pulling its own levers at quarterback. Gardner Minshew has taken the job from Baltimore-bound Jacoby Brissett. Do I believe in Minshew mania? Well, as a nothing-to-lose, late-game endeavor against the Cowboys' moribund defense, sure! But in the journeyman's first start of the season ... at Seattle ... against the league's top-ranked defense ... with the Seahawks fresh off a humbling, nationally televised home loss? Not so much. Mania is a fleeting sensation.

Why Dan picked the Bears: I believe the clock is about to strike midnight on the Bucs' recent Cinderella-like run after an 0-4 start to the season. Their recipe for success is not sustainable long-term. They won -- by 30 points! -- a couple weeks ago despite throwing for just 64 yards and then they were victorious last week in a rain-soaked game where they didn't complete a single pass, becoming the first team since the 1974 Buffalo Bills to do so. Meanwhile, the Bears have planted their flag as legit contenders with prime-time wins at home against the reigning AFC champion Patriots and on the road versus the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks in consecutive weeks. The defense is operating on a different level with trade acquisition Jeffery Simmons wreaking havoc, and Caleb Williams is generating MVP chatter. Tampa Bay's defense will be the best unit Williams has faced since leaving Chicago's Week 2 loss to the Vikings with the hamstring injury that sidelined him for three full games, but I think it will take multiple takeaways by Todd Bowles' group to jeopardize the Bears' winning streak. The home team has more paths to victory than the Bucs do right now.

MONDAY, NOV. 9

Why Bobby picked the Bills: With Kyler Murray battling a hamstring injury, Carson Wentz is starting this game for the Vikings. Frankly, that development doesn't really change my feelings about this matchup, which never hinged on the home team's quarterback. Minnesota's best chance at coming away with a victory will be to blitz Josh Allen into oblivion and hope it disrupts Buffalo's offense enough to result in a low-scoring slugfest. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores, as everyone knows, is very much up to that task. His defense is blitzing at a rate of 71.0%, which is 30.7% higher than the second-ranked Giants (40.3%), per NFL Pro. For an idea of how absurd that is, the gap between Giants and the least blitz-happy team (Bengals, 18.9%) is 21.4%. Compared to the rest of the league, Allen hasn't been particularly amazing against the blitz. He is currently 20th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks with an 88.2 passer rating when facing extra rushers. However, that doesn't take into account the times he beats the blitz with his legs, and running back James Cook could also very well take some weight off Allen's shoulders against a defense that is in the middle of the pack against the run. While Minnesota has allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL, it's giving up the 17th-most rushing yards per game. Suffice it to say, the Bills will find a way to get theirs. I'm not so sure the Vikings will, which could result in a second straight loss to a premier offense they fail to keep up with.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Bobby picked the Jaguars: Jacksonville enters Thursday night with the No. 5 scoring offense and No. 2 defense in points allowed, while Baltimore is limping into the prime-time contest without star quarterback Lamar Jackson (thumb) for the long term. Not only that, but backup Tyler Huntley is out for the season due to a turf toe injury. There is a trade for Jacoby Brissett in the works, but for at least one game the baton passes to undrafted rookie QB Joe Fagnano, who went 10 of 21 for 91 yards and an interception after being thrust into the Ravens' Week 8 loss to the Bills as their emergency option. Will he improve enough to make a difference with an abbreviated week to prepare for his first-ever NFL start? It's hard to imagine, especially facing a defense boasting the seventh-highest pressure rate (39.6%) in the league. Derrick Henry has struggled during Baltimore's three-game losing streak -- he hasn't topped 58 yards rushing in any of those contests -- and Zay Flowers just put up a goose egg (zero catches on five targets) versus Buffalo. Things are at risk of falling apart, and the Ravens don't exactly have one of their classic shutdown defenses of yesteryear to come to the rescue.

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