NFL Week 5 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 5 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 8.
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THURSDAY, OCT. 8

Why Bobby picked the Cowboys: Defensive issues continue to plague Dallas, but the Buccaneers don't have enough firepower to keep up with Dak Prescott and Co. regardless. Tampa Bay is the only team this season that has amassed fewer than 200 net passing yards and 150 net rushing yards in every game heading into Week 5, per NFL Research. Just take a look at CeeDee Lamb versus the entire Bucs' WR corps: Lamb, who collected 17 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' 34-30 win over the Texans, now has 37 receptions, 498 receiving yards, 28 receiving first downs and four TD catches. Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Ted Hurst, Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson have combined for 44 receptions, 501 receiving yards, 22 receiving first downs and two TD catches. Sure, Tampa Bay could presumably home in on limiting Lamb, but that still leaves threats like George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams to deal with. Home-field advantage and history is also on Dallas' side as Jalon Daniels prepares for his second career start. Only one undrafted rookie QB in NFL history has ever started and recorded a win over the Cowboys -- Washington's Ed Rubbert, during the 1987 strike. That Washington squad of replacement players provided inspiration for The Replacements, which won Best Picture at the 2001 Oscars. (Just kidding, that was Gladiator.) Unfortunately, Shane Falco isn’t walking through the door for Tampa Bay.

SUNDAY, OCT. 11

Why Jeremy picked the Jaguars: The Eagles are flying into London battered, bruised and beleaguered. Lane Johnson (retired) and Cam Jurgens (traded) are no longer with the team, while Saquon Barkley and myriad other starters are nursing injuries. That's not how you want to show up against the Jaguars, who are bullying the competition so far. Jacksonville hasn't allowed over 20 points in a game through four weeks and is playing remarkably consistent offensive ball (league-low four three-and-outs). While Duval does the London trip every year -- and will be staying an extra week this season -- Philly hasn't played in the U.K. under Nick Sirianni. The midseason voyage couldn't come at a worse time for coach and club.

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: We need to talk about Joe Burrow. Cincinnati has a problem with the quarterback, and surprisingly, it has nothing to do with his health. Rather, it's the backbreaking turnovers he's committed in consecutive losses. After successfully surging out of the gates with a pair of wins, the Bengals have dropped to .500 with Burrow's fourth-quarter blunders, both of which occurred on first down in plus territory. It's quite unexpected to see Joe Brrr freeze up at winning time … Or is it? The late flubs in the past fortnight have rekindled a debate in Cincy about whether or not Burrow is clutch, with doubters dusting off an infamous statistic that Burrow is now 1-35 when trailing at any point in the final eight minutes of a game. Put me in the camp of those who dismiss this figure as noisy data. I believe in Joe's clutch gene. But I'm not entirely bullish on the current state of his offense. The Bengals have been unable to get the run game going this year, and now the aerial attack's in limbo, with Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin/neck) dealing with injuries. Cincinnati should still be able to handle winless Miami, but the contest could be closer than you expect.

Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: A week ago, it felt like Drake Maye carried the weight of the world on his shoulders. The 24-year-old responded admirably, playing his best game of the season to lead the Patriots to a road upset of the previously unbeaten, rival Bills. Meanwhile in Las Vegas, the Raiders entered last week with a surprising 3-0 record that some attributed to underwhelming competition. How would the Silver and Black fare against the big, bad, resurgent Chiefs? Pretty well! Kirk Cousins actually outdueled Patrick Mahomes, but Kenneth Walker III ultimately proved to be too much for the home team, lifting Kansas City to a hard-fought rivalry win. So, are the Patriots back? Are the Raiders for real? I answer both questions with a definitive MAYBE. Look, all of us -- teams and analysts alike -- are still feeling out this young season. At this point, both sides give reason to believe while also leaving room for doubt. But the most established unit in this game is New England's defense. Combine that with my lingering skepticism of this Kirko Chainz renaissance and the fact that Vegas' run game has largely stalled since Ashton Jeanty's wondrous Week 1, and I'll ride with the home team in a low-scoring affair.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: Minnesota has got to find some offense because field goals aren't going to cut it every week. Despite how poor that unit has been, the Vikings have the edge against the Saints' defense in overall passing and rushing efficiency, per NFL Pro. Veteran Aaron Jones has been a boon, averaging 108.3 scrimmage yards per game since Jordan Mason was placed on IR after Week 1, while Kyler Murray slowly finds his footing. Getting Justin Jefferson (ankle) back would certainly help Murray in that process. The Saints underwhelmed on all fronts against the Falcons, giving up a 40-burger and struggling offensively. Things won't get easier for Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough. Brian Flores' defense has blitzed on 70.5% of dropbacks this season and generated a 46.8% pressure rate, both the highest marks since 2018 (per NGS). Shough has recorded 5.7 yards per attempt against the blitz (seventh-lowest in the NFL) and 8.1 yards per attempt against pressure (third-highest); most notably, he hasn't faced a blitz rate above 38.5% of his dropbacks in any game he has started in his career. The second-year QB faces an uphill climb, and it doesn't help that Alvin Kamara's dealing with a back injury. It certainly feels like Minnesota has been playing with fire -- eking out weird wins by the week -- but consider this another good-timing matchup with a foe that's searching for some answers on multiple fronts. The Vikings improve to 5-0 heading into the bye week.

Why Bobby picked the Browns: It's time to admit the Browns might have something cooking. They've now won three straight after an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars to begin the season. Two of the three opponents that have fallen to them, the Buccaneers and Steelers, have some big question marks, but Cleveland is the only team thus far to have silenced the Panthers' offense in any way. Plus, bad teams don't typically rattle off three victories in a row, no matter how the schedule looks. Deshaun Watson has completed at least 72 percent of his passes in three of four contests, buoyed by a trio of young pass catchers who have helped change the offense's trajectory: Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion and Harold Fannin Jr. The Mason Graham injury absolutely hurts Cleveland's defensive outlook, but the unit is performing well enough to contain the Jets, who just played one of the most confounding games in recent memory. The 23-12 scoreline of New York's Week 4 loss to the Bears doesn't come close to telling the full story. Gang Green lost the time-of-possession battle 17:15 to 42:45 and managed only seven first downs to Chicago's 34 -- notably two more first downs than the amount of plays (32) the Jets even ran. Kudos to the Bears, but it's difficult to back a team coming off a performance like that and mired in a three-game losing streak. Count on the Browns to move to 4-1 for the first time since 2020.

Why Jeremy picked the Steelers: Pittsburgh is going through it. The Steelers have stewed for a week after their TNF loss to Cleveland in which every veteran seemed to have lost his temper. By Sunday, heads should be cooler, just as Jonathan Taylor is heating up. The Colts' star RB carried his team to victory in London and is finding the end zone at a near-league-best clip. If Taylor can dictate Sunday's game, Indy will come away with it. Daniel Jones may be standing in the way. A turnover machine in the past few weeks, Jones faces an opportunistic Pittsburgh defense in Week 5, one that has logged two takeaways in each of its first four games. Indianapolis hasn't won a game's turnover battle since November 2025. For two teams on the edge of the postseason discussion in the AFC, Sunday's result could be critical down the line. Whoever takes care of the ball should come out ahead. Point, Pittsburgh.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: Seeing how Tennessee has finished each of the last two seasons with a league-low three wins, nobody's too surprised the Titans are 0-4. But the Texans remaining winless in mid-October? That's utterly shocking, especially with C.J. Stroud playing his best football since his transcendent rookie campaign in 2023. Houston's defense, which entered this season with great expectations to be the league’s preeminent stopping unit, has fallen flat. Not only do the Texans rank in the 20s in total defense, scoring D, EPA/play and a host of additional metrics, but they can't close. Houston has held a lead in the final two minutes of three of its four losses; the talent-rich defense just cannot get that final stop. It's truly confounding, given the retention from last season's top-ranked group. With the Texans' season reaching a state of emergency, head coach DeMeco Ryans broke glass, taking over defensive play-calling duties for this week's divisional game. I think this leads to a spirited effort against the league's last-ranked total offense. If Houston can't get off the schneid against the only team that's yet to produce 300 yards in a game this season, the Texans are broken beyond repair.

Why Jeremy picked the Commanders: New York narrowly escaped a home loss to the Cardinals last week, surviving the full Jameis Winston experience with a field-flipping pick-six on the last play of the game. The first-place Giants haven't played up to their 3-1 record so far this season. Against the 1-3 Commanders, the sides should even out. Washington is likely returning its star QB Jayden Daniels from a dislocated left elbow after it was forced to play Athan Kaliakmanis for the bulk of its international effort. The Commanders have a laundry list of injuries, but Daronte Jones' blitz-happy front figures to give Jameis Winston fits with whoever takes the field. Washington's revamped O-line will face a real test with New York's defensive front, led by Abdul Carter and DROY candidate Arvell Reese, but the Commanders have fared well against the Giants in all forms since Dan Quinn took over (4-0) and should continue to do so Sunday.

Why Dan picked the Bears: I need to see a defense slow down Ben Johnson's running game before I pick against the Bears. The sample size is still small in 2026, but Chicago's 196.3 rush yards per game are the second-most by any team in the last 40 seasons (2019 Ravens: 206.0), per NFL Research. The Packers rank 28th against the run and they just lost one of their best players, linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, to a season-ending Achilles tear. The contrast here is stark. Green Bay averages 58 rush yards per game, the fewest in the league. It seems well within the realm of possibility that the Bears absolutely dominate in time of possession for the third straight week. If Caleb Williams fill-in Tyson Bagent is mistake-prone in his second start of the year, the Cheeseheads could feast. He's going to see his share of pressures -- the Packers blitz at the eighth-highest rate in the league (39.3%) -- but I'm expecting the ground game to provide him another relatively stress-free day.

Why Bobby picked the Broncos: A lot of the elements that could've rendered this a precarious matchup for the Broncos are balanced out by the Chargers dealing with similar issues. Denver has scored only 13 first-half points through four games, requiring a pair of comebacks from double-digit deficits just to be sitting at 2-2. Unless Sean Payton taking over play-calling from first-year offensive coordinator Davis Webb drastically changes those early-game woes, the Broncos will remain vulnerable to opponents jumping out to sizeable leads. Luckily for Denver, the Chargers haven't proven to be capable of doing that thus far. They only cracked the 20-point mark for the first time last week. The Broncos could also be without their two top cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (rib), but Los Angeles will be dealing with absences at both offensive tackle spots; Joe Alt (neck) and Rashawn Slater (ankle) are both set to miss the contest. As long as Denver manufactures pressure against Justin Herbert, who has experienced a nightmare start to the campaign, the defense should be able to make life easier on its corners stepping into expanded roles. With this being a divisional matchup, the result could still end up closer than the records -- and general vibes --  suggest, but that's technically another point in the Broncos' favor. They tend to wake up and thrive in the clutch.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: After a hot start in Week 1, the Cardinals certainly have cooled off. They have allowed at least 30 points in each of their last three games. Fortunately, one of the three teams allowing more points per game this season is this week's opponent, the Lions, who have scored and allowed 24-plus points in all four games. Simply put, expect plenty of offense (and fantasy points) in this one. The Lions' pick-your-poison unit -- with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta in tow -- should have no problem rebounding from last week's roller-coaster loss in Carolina. Jacoby Brissett has done some good things, too, notably when targeting Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. The Cardinals must find the end zone to stay with the ever-explosive Lions, but a few too many field goals by the home team will likely put them on the losing end.

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: I still believe in the Seahawks' defense, even after some rough moments in the past couple weeks. Seattle still has allowed the fewest total yards per game (246.8), yards per play (4.0) and pass yards per game (144.8), while also tying for the most interceptions (6) in the league. 49ers QB Brock Purdy is rightfully one of the top MVP candidates through Week 4 -- the man hasn't been sacked yet! -- but can he keep it going at Lumen Field? He had just two touchdown passes, four interceptions and a 72.5 passer rating in his three games against Seattle last season. The Seahawks were the only 49ers opponent to stop Purdy from throwing a TD pass in 2025, and they did it twice (in Week 18 and in the Divisional Round). There's no guarantee history will repeat itself, and the Seahawks are not operating like the finely-tuned machine they were toward the end of last season. It's probably going to take forcing a Sam Darnold error or two for San Francisco to win, but I'm not banking on the team with the league's seventh-lowest pressure rate (31.6%) to discombobulate him.

Why Brooke picked the Falcons: Is anyone better in prime time than Bijan Robinson? Not in my book, though Derrick Henry might have something to say about that. But God bless the schedule-makers for giving us Bijan thrice in night games over the first five weeks. In Atlanta's last two games (road routs of Green Bay and New Orleans), he has rushed for 339 yards and four scores. It feels like there's no stopping Bijan at this juncture. I expect a heavy dose of the run game from two of the league's top rushing attacks, especially if Lamar Jackson doesn't suit up. The two-time MVP has an outside chance to play Sunday night after sustaining an ankle injury in Baltimore's last game. If he can't go, Tyler Huntley would make his first start of the season. He's proven to be a capable backup (winning both of his starts for the Ravens in 2025), but will he do enough in the pass game to keep Atlanta's defense from solely keying on Henry? Stepping in for Jackson in the second half last week, Huntley attempted only one pass of 10 or more air yards, while three were short throws (0-9 yards) and five occurred behind the line of scrimmage. Not sure that'll get the job done against a Falcons' offense that's scored with ease with Michael Penix Jr. under center. If Jackson is healthy and plays, this becomes much harder to predict. Yet it's hard to go against these Falcons right now.

Extra note: Sunday would mark Falcons left tackle Jake Matthews' 200th consecutive start. The longtime veteran exited Monday night's game with a groin injury, leaving the NFL's longest active consecutive starts streak in jeopardy. This type of longevity is extremely rare, and it'll be a real shame if he falls just short of such a milestone number.

MONDAY, OCT. 12

Why Dan picked the Rams: We saw last week that the Bills have a get-right defense for quarterbacks, with Buffalo allowing Drake Maye to have his best game of the season -- by far -- after a horrendous start to 2026. I'm counting on Matthew Stafford to shake off his struggles (6:6 TD-INT ratio) against a defense that doesn't appear up to the challenge of covering Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The Bills rank among the bottom 10 in scoring and total defense, while Los Angeles ranks among the top 10 in both categories. Now, if the Rams keep trying to beat themselves -- with turnovers and poor special-teams play -- we know Josh Allen will make them pay. L.A. needed a fourth quarter rally to beat the Eagles last week despite outgaining them 415-172. Sean McVay is too good a coach to have his team playing sloppy football for long, though. I don't like being in the position of picking against Allen, even though he has four giveaways in the last two games (3 INTs, 1 fumble lost), but the Rams look like the more well-rounded squad at the moment.

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