NFL Week 4 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 4 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 1.
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SUNDAY OCT. 4

Why Jeremy picked the Commanders: With or without Jayden Daniels, Washington has a chance to give the Colts fits in London. Jonathan Taylor, Indy's main outlet for offensive production over the years, is facing a Commanders run defense that ranks third in the NFL through three weeks. Taylor is an international legend after last year's blistering Berlin showing, but he hasn't broken 100 yards in a game this season. Washington has been careful with the ball on offense, committing just one giveaway all year, while the Colts defense has been among the league's worst in terms of yards and points allowed but also takeaways (1). Both clubs are turning a corner after getting off the schneid in Week 3, but the Commanders are in a better place, even with their starting quarterback rehabbing another dislocated elbow.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Washington coach Dan Quinn announced on Friday that Jayden Daniels has been ruled out of Sunday's game. Veteran QB Marcus Mariota will make his second straight start after leading the Commanders to a 33-31 upset win over the Seahawks.

Why Jeremy picked the Ravens: Derrick Henry's first meeting with his former team isn't necessarily a "revenge game." After all, he left the Titans in 2024 as they downsized, and little of the regime that "shipped" him out remains. That fact won't stop Henry from trying to run all over Tennessee on Sunday afternoon. History, however, may be against Henry; no player has ever rushed for at least 100 yards against a team with which he recorded at least 9,000 career rushing yards. Plus, the Titans, for all their faults in this season's early going, have been competitive against the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt. When Henry plows into the teeth of the Titans front on Sunday, Jeffery Simmons has vowed to "hit his ass." Tennessee's main issue remains Cam Ward, the offense and its slow starts. The Titans should expect no relief against a Ravens outfit rejuvenated by its resounding win in Rio.

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: What is the best representation of New England's well-documented offensive struggles? I'm partial to one simple statistic that has made the rounds this week: In 30 offensive drives this season, the Patriots have scored 29 points. For comparison's sake, the Bills have logged 32 offensive drives … and scored 101 points. Another painful Pats stat that's burning up the interwebs: Going back to January's playoffs, Drake Maye has turned the ball over 15 times in his past seven games. What on earth has happened to last season's MVP runner-up? The 24-year-old's putrid play has spawned theories far and wide, some more conspiratorial than others. Is Cover 6 his kryptonite? Is the shoulder still barking from last season's injury? Is there a rift between Maye and Mike Vrabel? I won't pretend to have any of those answers, but one thing is pretty easy to surmise: The quarterback misses A.J. Brown. Unfortunately, the blockbuster trade acquisition's high ankle sprain is expected to keep him out until late October. And in the here and now, New England's other notable offseason addition out wide, Romeo Doubs, has gotten off to a rough start in Foxborough. If Maye and Co. are indeed suffering the infamous Super Bowl hangover, it's hard to believe the best remedy is a trip to Buffalo for a game against their undefeated division rivals.

Why Brooke picked the Bears: Will the Bears start Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent at quarterback? That's the question Ben Johnson must weigh. The veteran diced up the Eagles on Monday night, but the HC insists there are reasons Bagent ended camp as QB2. We'll find out soon enough, but no matter. The Jets have held a lead or been tied in the fourth quarter of all three games, but I don't see that to be the case Sunday after myriad injuries to key Jets, including RB Breece Hall, WR Adonai Mitchell, TE Mason Taylor, OG Dylan Parham (all are week to week, per HC Aaron Glenn). The offense faces an uphill climb -- especially with its bell-cow back sidelined -- against a Bears D that has held its last two opponents to fewer than 10 points. New York's defense has impressed and made plays, to be sure. It's good enough to make stops, but can it make enough stops to help its undermanned offense keep pace? A competitive game gets away from Gang Green late with the league's top-ranked rushing attack running out the clock to give Chicago its second straight win at Soldier Field.

Why Bobby picked the Jaguars: After two superb weeks for Cincy's defense, Bengals fans must have been having flashbacks to recent seasons as their team was suddenly unable to slow down the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers threw for over 290 yards and three touchdowns for the first time since he was a Packer in 2021, and Jaylen Warren went off for 176 yards from scrimmage. It's just one game, but the result also necessitates looking back at the first two weeks that caused Cincinnati to earn praise for a supposed offseason transformation. The four takeaways against Tampa Bay in Week 1 were great, but the Bengals still gave up points to an offense that has since struggled. And after doing nothing against Cincinnati in Week 2, Houston was just quieted by a Colts team that had allowed the second-most yards through the first two games in a season in NFL history. Now the Jaguars come to town with the most high-functioning offense the Bengals have faced thus far -- by a wide margin. They just blew the doors off the reigning AFC champions, defeating the Patriots, 35-6. Trevor Lawrence enters the contest playing well, with 616 passing yards, seven touchdowns, two picks and a 107.8 passer rating. If the Bengals prove unable to limit the damage again defensively, Joe Burrow and Co. will have a mighty tough task keeping up against the No. 1 defense in points allowed.

Why Brooke picked the Cowboys: The Battle for Texas is back with both teams aiming to avoid their worst starts since 2020. In two career games against the Texans, Dak Prescott has struggled, with a 61.8 completion percentage, 2:4 TD-to-INT ratio and a 69.0 passer rating. And he's yet face a DeMeco Ryans-led unit (with Houston or San Francisco), so things could continue to go south. I'm a big believer in the Texans' defense but think the Cowboys are too talented an offense to lay down this early in the season. That said, Brian Schottenheimer must coach smarter this week, and there are major concerns with that defense, which continues to get hit with the injury bug. It'll be without DT Jonathan Bullard, S Jalen Thompson and potentially CB Shavon Revel Jr. this week after losing CB Cobie Durant, S P.J. Locke, LB DeMarvion Overshown and S Malik Hooker in weeks prior. The Cowboys made a trade Wednesday night for disgruntled Pittsburgh corner Joey Porter Jr., which should aid the waning secondary once he's on the field. The saving grace for that unit right now, though, is that the Texans' offense has been abysmal, scoring a total of 23 points in the last two games. Notably, No. 1 receiver Nico Collins returned to practice Wednesday, but can his presence alone make all the difference for C.J. Stroud and Houston's floundering offense? It's definitely possible, and I won't be all that shocked if Collins spurs the Texans to victory, but on the whole, I've seen a bit more from Dallas at this juncture.

Why Jeremy picked the Cardinals: It's a rivalry renewed in the Meadowlands! Oh, you don't remember the old divisional clashes between Big Blue and the Chicago/St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals? Well then, you surely don't recall that the Giants have never beaten the Cards in MetLife Stadium and haven't won against these birds at home since Week 1 of 2005, in the Kurt Warner Bowl. It's been a while for the G-Men, but will the stain of that two-decade-long failure play into Sunday's showdown? The more pressing elements in the game will be whether Jameis Winston can finally get the Giants in the end zone against a Cards defense that was exploited by the NFC West elite in Weeks 2 and 3, and whether a Giants defense sans Brian Burns can pressure Jacoby Brissett and Co. into critical errors. At this point in the season, I have more faith in the steady Brissett and Mike LaFleur's overachieving Cards team than a New York outfit making desperate September trades to stabilize a roster depleted of star power. (Oh yeah, and Arizona doesn't lose at MetLife. Math.)

Why Gennaro picked the Eagles: Last Sunday night, Los Angeles blew a 16-0 halftime lead at Denver to drop back below .500 in a season that began with the Rams as prohibitive Super Bowl favorites. One night later, Philadelphia was blown out of Chicago by a Bears team that was forced to give Case Keenum his first start in 1,009 days. So, after a pair of nationally televised debacles, who's in better position to bounce back? Well, the expected return of star WR Puka Nacua is certainly a boon to Sean McVay's squad. But can the Rams coach exorcise his demons against the Eagles? McVay is 1-6 vs. Philadelphia, having dropped all four matchups against Nick Sirianni. Last season's loss at Lincoln Financial Field was particularly painful: Not only did the Rams blow a 19-point third-quarter lead, but they had two fourth-quarter field goal attempts blocked, including a would-be game-winner from 44 yards out on the last snap of the contest. In addition to swatting that final kick, hulking DT Jordan Davis memorably scooped up the ball and galloped for an exclamation-point touchdown. But the big man's triumphant rumble was easily the Eagles' best run of the day, as the Rams held Saquon Barkley to just 55 total yards on 22 touches. That was a huge departure from Barkley's previous two games against L.A., when he piled up 534(!) scrimmage yards. Philly's had trouble getting a consistent ground attack going under new OC Sean Mannion, but Barkley did enjoy success against Chicago this past Monday night before the game got out of hand, potentially signaling a schematic breakthrough. In a matchup between two established powers that have yet to play up to their talent level this season, I'm far from bullish on the Eagles. But I anticipate Sirianni will rally the troops once again versus McVay, with the Birds feeling disrespected as home underdogs.

Why Bobby picked the Buccaneers: Once upon a time, undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito led the Giants to a shocking upset over the Packers, rushing for 71 yards while throwing for another 158 and a touchdown. That was against a 2023 version of Green Bay playing far better than a Packers squad currently in full-blown crisis mode. With Baker Mayfield out several weeks due to a dislocated thumb, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, who impressed enough in preseason to win the backup job, has a chance to pen a similar story. Daniels finding a way to spark Tampa Bay's struggling offense isn't as farfetched as it might seem. That's not to say he's the quarterback Mayfield is, but Baker currently sits dead last among qualified quarterbacks with a -35.6 expected points added, per NFL Pro. The bar for Daniels to surpass what the 2026 version of Mayfield did through three games is not remotely high, and everyone saw what Michael Penix Jr. achieved against the Packers D during his first game back since tearing his ACL on Nov. 16 last season. Green Bay's Thursday night debacle didn't portray its offense in any more of a positive light. The offensive line is Swiss cheese, allowing the quickest average time to pressure (2.29) and struggling to forge a path for the league's worst rushing attack, which has managed 146 yards in three games. Do the patchwork signings of Mekhi Becton, Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler change that? Not nearly soon enough, which could lead to the Bucs' first win of the season.

Why Bobby picked the Vikings: Generally, a good rule of thumb is to go with the 3-0 team over the 0-3 one. Minnesota would be the correct pick regardless of records, though. The Vikings offense, which currently sits last in the league in yards, should be in line for a reprieve against a porous Miami squad. The Fins rank 28th in points allowed through three weeks, and their +0.15 expected points added per play allowed is tied with the Colts for worst in the league, per NFL Pro. There might be some concerns moving forward if Kyler Murray and the offense don't fully wake up against Miami, but it shouldn't affect this particular result. That's because Minnesota's dominant defense is set to feast on the Dolphins' struggling offense, which just lost its best player, De'Von Achane, to a season-ending ACL tear. Miami has yet to score more than 13 points this season, while the Vikings are allowing an average of 13.7. Brian Flores will ensure the Dolphins don't have an easy time trying to buck those trends. The most daring defensive coordinator in the league boasts a blitz rate of 68.1%, 24.2% higher than the second-most blitz-happy team. Malik Willis enters Week 4 tied for the fourth-worst completion percentage (50%) against blitzes, and now he must face the Purple Porpoise Eaters. (I know Dolphins aren't porpoises -- allow me the alliteration.)

Why Brooke picked the Raiders: Two of the five remaining undefeateds reside in the AFC West, and who thought the Raiders would be one? (Put your hand down.) They face their toughest opponent to date in the Chiefs, whose offense continues to steadily improve with Eric Bieniemy back as OC -- SEE: a much-improved run game led by the NFL's leading rusher, Kenneth Walker III, with Patrick Mahomes leveling back up to his MVP-caliber standards -- and whose defense is a top-five overall and scoring unit. I believe these Raiders are up for the challenge. Kirk Cousins is jibing with Klint Kubiak's scheme, throwing three TDs in each game this season, and plays well against man coverage, which Steve Spagnuolo's defense runs on 37.6 percent of dropbacks (fifth-most in the NFL). Per Next Gen Stats, Cousins has six pass TDs, zero INTs and a 126.2 passer rating vs. man this season, while recording three pass TDs, three INTs and an 85.2 passer rating vs. zone coverage. Cousins has time to deal with the way his O-line is playing (five sacks allowed through three games), but the Raiders need Week 3 AFC Offensive Player of the Week Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty to show up in a big way. Las Vegas leads the league with a +5 turnover differential, and defensively, the team is tied for fourth in sacks. But the Raiders must limit Walker -- that's a huge key to this game. This is the most inspiring the Raiders have looked in eons, and though the Chiefs might be the more experienced of the two, Vegas' newfound confidence -- and the energy the Black Hole will bring to Allegiant Stadium on Sunday -- will be just enough to eke out a W, giving the franchise more wins heading into Week 5 than it managed in the entire 2025 season.

Why Bobby picked the Seahawks: The Seahawks' Week 3 loss to the Commanders was their first since Nov. 16 of 2025. When they square off against the Chargers, they will have suffered just two defeats in the previous 365 days. It was shocking to see them falter against a formerly winless Washington team led by backup quarterback Marcus Mariota, but that's easy enough to wave away as any given Sunday. These Chargers? It's impossible to dismiss all that plagues them. They're so offensively challenged that, even with the Bills turning it over five times, they only managed 16 points in their recent loss to Buffalo -- and that was the most Los Angeles has scored all season. Regardless of one takeaway-filled day, the Chargers defense isn't performing up to its typical stellar standard. The unit currently ranks 20th in points allowed, down from ninth in 2025 and first in 2024. The struggles have even carried over to Pro Bowl kicker Cameron Dicker, who has missed a field-goal attempt in each of the last two outings. The Chargers will be desperate to turn it around Sunday and start salvaging their season, but the Seahawks, a much better team, will also likely play with a little extra fire coming off such a jaw-dropping loss.

Why Dan picked the 49ers: I'd like to see the Broncos play a complete game before I predict them to go on the road and defeat the team that's arguably been the best in football through three weeks. Denver is 2-1, but it's been outscored 40-10 in the first halves of its first three games. The concerningly slow starts are not lost on head coach Sean Payton, who said this week that trying to play catch-up will "cost us in bigger games." Sunday's matchup feels like it could be one of those, featuring two squads with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The Broncos have already proven they can come back against the league's better teams, doing so at home versus the Jaguars and Rams in consecutive weeks, but now they're the visitors against the undefeated 49ers, who must be feeling pretty comfy as they prepare for their third consecutive game at Levi's Stadium, a scheduling quirk for a club that opened the season in Australia. Brock Purdy is playing at an elite level, even with injuries once again plaguing San Francisco's receiving corps, and Kyle Shanahan is on a coaching heater dating back to last season. It won't come easy, but I'm expecting the Niners to be 4-0 entering Week 5 for the first time since 2023.

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: Three weeks into the season, Detroit ranks near the bottom of the NFL in most defensive categories. Fortunately, the Lions continue to field one of the league's most potent offenses, having scored exactly 31 points in all three games. How will the Panthers look to counter defensively? That's a good question. After all, Ejiro Evero's unit ranks dead last in run defense, giving up a bountiful 5.7 yards per carry -- more than half a yard worse than any other team. Good luck containing Jahmyr Gibbs ... Does Carolina at least have the horses to keep up with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in the passing game? Not anymore! Star CB1 Jaycee Horn and underrated CB2 Mike Jackson just hit injured reserve. Now, one thing that could help the Panthers slow down the Lions is the outdoor environment at Bank of America Stadium. Not only is Detroit a dome team, but at publishing, it looks like this could be a rainy weekend in Charlotte. Then again, if precipitation ultimately plays a role on Sunday night, Carolina might not be able to take full advantage of Detroit's disastrous secondary. The Panthers should put some points on the board, but I'll be surprised if they keep up with the Lions' posse of playmakers.

MONDAY, OCT. 5

Why Dan picked the Saints: New Orleans is a few plays away from being 3-0 right now. I can't say the same for the Falcons, although the rout of a lost Green Bay team in Michael Penix Jr.'s 2026 debut was highly encouraging. The Saints have the smallest margin of defeat (-4.5) among the 16 teams with multiple losses entering Week 4, and they beat themselves last Sunday, turning the ball over on all four of their possessions in the fourth quarter against the Raiders. I'm expecting a cleaner performance from Tyler Shough, who ranks second in the league in passing yards (917) and is tied for third in touchdown passes (8) entering Week 4. Jeff Ulbrich has Atlanta's defense playing inspired ball even with injuries to key players, but Kellen Moore's group should provide the stiffest test it's faced so far. The Superdome crowd always brings the energy, and the vibes will likely be off the charts on Monday night as the Saints celebrate the 20th anniversary of one of the most iconic games in franchise history. Give me the home team in a tight one.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Dan picked the Steelers: I know the recent history of the Steelers' trips to Cleveland -- it's the stuff of nightmares for Pittsburgh -- but I'm not ready to trust the Browns' offense. It ranks among the bottom-five units in too many categories, including total yards, third-down conversion rate and red zone touchdown percentage. Now, I'm certainly not convinced the Steelers are a finely-tuned offensive machine, either, even after their 30-point outburst against the Bengals. Mike McCarthy's crew was held to three points in a loss less than two weeks ago, so I'm predicting a low-scoring contest on Thursday night. If the Browns' defense -- led by second-year breakout DT Mason Graham -- keeps Aaron Rodgers from ever getting comfortable, the upset will be in play. I saw too many poor throws from Deshaun Watson last week to forecast such an outcome, though, especially with injuries leaving Cleveland vulnerable on the interior of the offensive line.

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