Caleb Williams on Monday night did what no quarterback has done this season: bamboozle the Seattle Seahawks' defense.
Mike Macdonald's group entered Monday's tilt allowing a league-low 144.4 passing yards per game, and the stingiest total yards per game (233.9). No QB had hit the 200-yard passing mark against Seattle this season. The Seahawks flustered Brock Purdy in Week 5 into his lowest output (189 yards). They flummoxed Patrick Mahomes (165) and stonewalled running back Kenneth Walker III (36) in Week 7.
Then, the Bears and Williams rolled over them like a Ford F-450 Super Duty blasting through a Pinto en route to a 34-17 win.
Williams completed 70.6 percent of his passes (24-for-34) for 247 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions -- his third game with at least one touchdown, zero interceptions, and a 70-or-higher completion percentage this season, tied for most in the NFL, per NFL Research.
Williams is the first QB with such a game against the Seahawks since Baker Mayfield in Week 5, 2025. Jordan Love and Jared Goff (both in 2024) are the only other QBs with such a game against Seattle since Macdonald became the coach in 2024.
Mastermind Ben Johnson deserves credit for a Chicago offense that keeps defenses off-kilter. The Bears' O-line is as strong as any in the league. The RBs keep yards churning, and the WRs create space and gobble up yards after the catch. But it all funnels through Williams.
The QB was sublime on Monday night in the face of the NFL's top defense in a hostile road environment at Lumen Field. There were a few hiccups, including some errant throws and three three-and-outs, but overall, Williams showed he is in complete command of Johnson's offense. That should scare the rest of the NFC.
I went over Williams' improvement in Year 2 under Johnson in last week's column. Again, the QB showed the ability to play within the offense and take the layups when they're there. Against the Seahawks, he also feasted off play action, with a 40.0% downfield rate off play action and a 23.5% explosive play rate in Week 8 (his highest of the season), per Next Gen Stats.
What I didn't get into last week was how a hamstring injury that wiped out three games could dash any shot Williams has at swiping this year's MVP award.
History says he's a long shot simply because of those missed games.
In the post NFL-AFL merger era (since 1970) in non-strike-shortened seasons, only one player has missed three games and still won the NFL MVP award: Joe Montana in 1989. Joe Cool battled through various injuries that season, missing Weeks 6, 8, and 15, and portions of others.
Every single other MVP missed two or fewer tilts. Most missed zero.
Here is a complete list of games missed for MVPs since 1970 (not counting John Elway in 1987 and kicker Mark Moseley in 1982, both strike-shortened years):
- 1972 RB Larry Brown: Weeks 13 and 14
- 1989 QB Joe Montana: Weeks 6, 8, 15
- 1990 QB Joe Montana: Week 16
- 1991 RB Thurman Thomas: Week 17
- 1993 RB Emmitt Smith: Weeks 1 and 2
- 2000 RB Marshall Faulk: Weeks 9 and 10
- 2003 QB Steve McNair: Weeks 15 and 17
- 2011 QB Aaron Rodgers: Week 18
- 2019 QB Lamar Jackson: Week 18
- 2021 QB Aaron Rodgers: Week 9
- 2023 QB Lamar Jackson: Week 18
That's 11 players out of 53 who missed even a single game during their MVP seasons. Many of those came at the end of the regular season, with players sitting out to prep for a postseason run. Aside from Rodgers' positive COVID test in 2021, no QB has missed a game due to injury in their MVP season since Steve McNair in 2003.
Of the five MVPs who missed more than a single game, three were running backs, who racked up enough stats to run away with the award -- Emmitt Smith famously sat out the first two games in a contract standoff with the Cowboys in 1993. McNair split the award with Peyton Manning after missing a couple of late games with calf and ankle injuries; the Titans QB led the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt that year.
MVP voters have leaned toward QBs who rack up stats and stay on the field. In 2016, there was some chatter, particularly in the Northeast, as to whether Tom Brady, who missed the first four games of the season due to the Deflategate suspension, should be considered for the MVP after returning to lead the Pats to an 11-1 record with a 28-2 TD-INT ratio. Brady finished second to the Falcons' Matt Ryan with 20% of the vote.
Montana's 1989 season for San Francisco sits as the lone outlier. Despite missing three games, Montana was the best QB on the best team in the NFL, winning the MVP vote in a landslide (62 of 70 votes). The 49ers QB overcame the lack of counting stats by leading the NFL in all the efficiency categories: 70.2 percent completion rate, a 6.7 TD% rate, 53.7% success rate, 9.1 yards per attempt average, 270.8 yards per game, and set the then-record with a 112.4 passer rating -- when 100 passer ratings were uncommon.
That's Williams' path to the MVP: Be the most efficient passer on the best team.
The Bears QB currently sits second in completion percentage (70.9), fourth in INT rate (0.6), eight in success rate (49.7), fifth in yards per attempt (8.0), 11th in yards per game (253.4), fifth in passer rating (104.6), while ranking second in QBR (78.9), third in EPA per dropback (0.22) and fifth in win probability added (117.0%).
Overcoming missed games in terms of the MVP race is extremely difficult. Missing three is historically daunting. Williams isn't there yet, but if he manhandles other defenses like he did a studly Seahawks one on the road, he'll have a shot at joining Montana as an outlier in the record books.
Now, on to the rankings!
MVP RANKINGS
NOTE: Up/down arrows below reflect movement from the Week 8 edition.
Week 8 started a little wobbly for Allen in the first half of Sunday's win over Baltimore. He missed a few passes, including a ball behind tight end Jackson Hawes that was popped up for an INT. Allen completed 42.1 percent of his first-half passes. You don’t keep Allen down long, however. The QB hit 13 of his 15 second-half passes while divebombing the Ravens' defense. On throws of 10+ air yards on Sunday, Allen was 6 of 10 for 157 yards and two touchdowns, including a season-high 43 air yards on a completion to DJ Moore in the third quarter, per Next Gen Stats. Allen’s ability to play through rough patches keeps him at the top of the standings. He remains first overall in EPA per dropback (0.25) and nudged up his pass EPA to 60.1 (fifth in the NFL).
I’m keeping Purdy at No. 2 behind Allen coming out of the 49ers' bye week. The veteran QB still ranks first in the league in success rate (53.0%) and is second in EPA per dropback (.23). Purdy struggled for the six quarters heading into the Week 8 bye, though. He needs to come out on fire to keep his place. Luckily, he faces a Raiders defense on Sunday that Geno Smith just lit up.
Burrow blasted his way into the conversation with a ridiculous six-touchdown game against the Tennessee Titans (five pass, one rush) and 462 passing yards in Week 8. Yes, there were three interceptions, but each of those came at least 18-plus air yards. Call me particular, but if my QB’s going to make errors, I want them to be the aggressive type. Burrow is the perfect blend of pinpoint accuracy and big-play hunting. He leads the NFL with a 73% completion rate and is third with a 6.5% completion percentage over expected. The Bengals QB couples that with 17 big-time throws, second most in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Per PFF, Burrow has just seven turnover-worthy plays this season (tied with Purdy), so while three came Sunday, he hasn't been a mistake machine this season. Burrow’s massive Week 8 boosted him from seventh in success rate all the way to second (51.9%). The Bengals defense has made improvements this season, but they would have gotten walloped by Tennessee on Sunday if not for Burrow.
Steady eddy keeps on keeping on. The Jags have played so well for stretches this season that Lawrence gets lost in the shuffle. It’s hard to rack up stats when you’re sitting out the fourth quarter of blowout wins (like Sunday's 42-7 romper over the Colts). In seven games, Lawrence has attempted just 34 fourth-quarter passes, per Next Gen Stats. In those same seven games, Burrow has attempted 72 passes in the fourth quarter/OT. Lawrence has been efficient with his chances, leading the NFL in passer rating (112.6), tied for second in yards per attempt (8.5), fourth in EPA per dropback (0.21) and second in pass EPA (74.6). On Sunday against the Colts, Lawrence was pressured early but showed headiness, avoiding pressure and making throws on the move. When he's clean, the Jags passer has destroyed defenses. Lawrence has averaged 9.3 yards per attempt against four or fewer pass rushers this season, the most among qualified passers, along with a league-high 14 touchdown passes (two interceptions).
Monday night's loss pushes JSN down the list, but he remains by far the best non-QB in the game. In prime time, the wideout put up 118 yards and a TD; the rest of Seattle's offense generated 134 total yards. No other Seahawks pass catcher had more than 26 receiving yards -- combined they totaled 70. This season, JSN has 51.5% of the Seahawks' receiving yards and 39.2% of the receptions. Smith-Njigba's 123.1 yards per game keeps him above Calvin Johnson’s record-setting pace and puts him on track for 2,092.7 receiving yards over 17 games. The issue for JSN in the MVP discussion is the Seahawks falling to 4-4. A few more losses and even his otherworldly play will be lost in the wash.
Next in line: Bears QB Caleb Williams, Lions QB Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Drake Maye
