NFL Week 10 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 10 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12.
• Stream live local and prime-time games on mobile with NFL+.

THURSDAY, NOV. 12

Why Dan picked the Giants: I'm not seeing the needed sense of urgency in the Commanders' play, given where they currently sit in the standings. With a golden opportunity to start their first winning streak since the 2024 season last Sunday, they fumbled a chance to upset the Rams at home, turning their two drives that began in Los Angeles territory into a total of just three points. Washington has the talent to beat the Giants. If not for botched late-game decision-making, the Commanders might have done so when the teams met five weeks ago. It feels like asking a lot to count on them to complete the task on the road -- where they're 0-3 this season -- with a condensed week of preparation. Any lingering effects of the hip injury J.J. McCarthy suffered last week could certainly swing things in Washington's direction, but with running back Cam Skattebo expected to return from an injury of his own and the New York defense seemingly on the ascent thanks to DROY front-runner Arvell Reese, I'll take the home team.

SUNDAY, NOV. 15

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: Because the NFC North is clearly the best division in football, and nobody is more aware of that these days than the Patriots. Following a slow start to the season, New England appeared to cure its Super Bowl hangover with three straight wins to open October. But over the past three weeks, the Pats have dropped two games, with both defeats coming to NFC North squads. First, New England lost in Chicago on a short week, with the Bears rolling up 30 points and 405 yards under the lights of Thursday Night Football. Then, after New England's road win at Miami, the Patriots returned home to get blown out of their own building by the Packers. Not only did Jordan Love and Co. post a season-high 478 yards of offense, but they scored the most points by a visiting team (45) in the 25-year history of Gillette Stadium. Now, after that humbling experience, Mike Vrabel's bruised-and-battered bunch must travel to Munich to face the Lions, who lead their loaded division in scoring for the fifth straight season. It's a tough spot for an ebbing operation. With CB Christian Gonzalez fresh off one of the worst games of his career, QB Drake Maye turning the ball over again and injuries piling up across the roster, the Pats can't get to their Week 11 bye soon enough. All of this benefits a Detroit team that has made significant defensive strides since its own bye in Week 6.

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: I'm not sure I can trust the Falcons' run defense against Offensive Player of the Year contender Kenneth Walker III. In the last three weeks, Atlanta has allowed the most rushing yards per game (a whopping 190) and the most rushing yards over expected (182). Of course, a huge chunk of that production came courtesy of the Buccaneers' 324(!) rushing yards in a wet Week 8 tilt, but the Falcons allowed the previously dormant Bengals running game to churn out a season-high 123 yards last week (5.1 per carry) in Madrid. Now they have to try to recover on the fly after taking an overseas thumping from Cincinnati, and they'll be doing so without team captain Jessie Bates III, a three-time second-team All-Pro safety who was traded to the Jaguars this week. Leaning on the running game might be particularly important for the Chiefs on Sunday as Patrick Mahomes deals with the right elbow injury he suffered last week. Assuming Mahomes is good to go, Kansas City's passing game could have a little extra juice with this week's trade acquisition, Josh Downs, sliding into the slot.

Why Brooke picked the Texans: Even sitting at 3-5, the Texans appear to be full steam ahead toward a playoff berth with the way their offense is playing and defense is improving. C.J. Stroud has Nick Caley's unit absolutely humming now that most of his main targets are healthy. The real key to that success is Nico Collins. In the 257 snaps Collins has played this season, the Texans have averaged 8.2 yards per passing play, more than the 49ers' league-leading 7.9. He could be stalled when matched up against cornerback Denzel Ward, who's allowing 0.5 yards per coverage snap, fifth-fewest among cornerbacks (min. 150 coverage snaps). That duel is sure to be dogfight Sunday, but no matter, as I have faith in Stroud's other weapons (Tank Dell, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kayshon Boutte and Xavier Hutchinson) to get it done. Houston's lone offensive weakness matches up nicely against the Browns' permeable run defense. Getting Deshaun Watson back is a boost for Cleveland, but even with him, the Browns have struggled to put together a full game, instead relying on a few big plays each week from their young stars. An all-around performance is exactly what the Browns must have to beat the current version of DeMeco Ryans' team. Thus, Cleveland will fall short of improving to 4-0 at home for the first time since the 1963 campaign, when Jim Brown led the NFL in rushing and scrimmage yards in a 14-game season.

Why Gennaro picked the Packers: After starting the year at 6-0, Minnesota has dropped its last two games. Don't blame the defense, though. Brian Flores' fierce unit admirably contained two of the league's most prolific attacks -- Detroit and Buffalo -- but Kevin O'Connell's offense couldn't hold up its end of the bargain. In fact, Carson Wentz's play was so putrid in Monday night's home loss to the Bills that the Vikings hit the trade market before Tuesday's deadline, flipping a third-round pick to bring Kirk Cousins back to Minnesota. The last time Kirko Chainz started a game for the Vikes, they beat the Packers at Lambeau Field. Unfortunately, Cousins tore his Achilles in the fourth quarter of that triumph, upending his career and the Vikes' quarterback situation. Three seasons later, the 38-year-old is back in purple. Can he pick up right where he left off, guiding Minnesota to a rivalry win in Titletown? Well, O'Connell refused to name Cousins as his QB1 on Wednesday, but Matt LaFleur is clear-eyed about the situation.

"He'll be starting," the Packers coach told reporters on Wednesday. "I'm fairly confident of that."

Aren't we all? Minnesota doesn't have any time to waste in a wildly competitive NFC North. So, presuming Cousins gets the nod, can he keep up with one of the hottest quarterbacks on the planet? Jordan Love is throwing haymakers at a dizzying rate, as evidenced by the fact that Christian Watson (879) and Matthew Golden (783) currently rank third and fourth in the NFL in receiving yards. But Green Bay's audacious MVP candidate did have two critical fourth-quarter turnovers in the Week 1 loss at Minnesota. Could Flores get the best of Love again? Perhaps. But Cousins faces a stiff challenge of his own, as Green Bay's defense is really coming together under first-year coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Since the beginning of October, the Packers have given up the third-fewest points per game at 16.7. Cousins ultimately could save this season of Skol -- pre-existing chemistry with KOC/Justin Jefferson is something to believe in -- but it's a tall task asking him to completely flip the offensive script a few days after he got it. Green Bay evens the season score.

Why Brooke picked the Colts: For all that's gone wrong for the Colts in 2026, including parting ways with numerous starters leading up to this week's trade deadline, I have them winning this game for one primary reason: Kyle McCord, a 2025 sixth-round draft pick of the Eagles, is making his first career start for the Dolphins in place of the injured Malik Willis. Miami's youthful offense, the second-lowest-scoring unit league-wide (15.8 points per game), was slowly building together, and it feels like it's back at square one with McCord under center. This is a real chance for the more experienced Indy squad to get its first win since Oct. 4, and the non-traded Jonathan Taylor is the one with the goods to secure the victory in a low-scoring affair.

Why Gennaro picked the Saints: While the NFC North is the only division with all four teams above .500, the NFC South is the only division with all four teams below .500. Therefore, this isn't exactly a clash of the titans, but it IS a crucial tilt in the division race. In fact, the winner of this showdown between 3-5 squads will hold sole possession of first place. So, who will that winner be? Good question. I'd be lying if I said I were bullish on either side. The Panthers own the most impressive win of the two -- a 32-26 victory over Detroit in Week 4's installment of Sunday Night Football -- but they've been unable to replicate that offensive output since, carrying a three-game losing streak into New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Saints have beaten winning teams in two of their past three outings, but let's be honest: The Giants and Browns hardly resemble world-beaters. Simply put, this is a matchup between underwhelming division rivals. And when that's the case, it's tempting to just throw up my hands and take the home team. The depleted state of Carolina's offensive line only pushes me further in that direction, considering Chase Young (8 sacks) and Carl Granderson (7.5) quietly comprise the league's most potent pass-rushing duo thus far in 2026. I'll ride with the edge menaces in the Superdome.

Why Dan picked the Bills: Buffalo's offense has been among the league's elite for the better part of a decade now, but it's currently cruising at altitudes not reached since the Bills' heyday in the 1990s, leading the league in both scoring (32 PPG) and yards per game (386.4). MVP candidate Josh Allen (12 pass touchdowns, 9 rush TDs) is doing things we've not seen before. He's the first player in league history with 10+ pass TDs and 9+ rush TDs in his team's first eight games of a season. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost four in a row and are still searching for their first win over a division opponent since Aaron Glenn was hired before last season. If Glenn's squad is going to make things interesting on Sunday, it'll need a relentless pass rush, which might be achievable for a team with the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL (39.2%). Allen has a 66.6 passer rating under pressure this season (110.2 with no pressure), per Next Gen Stats. I won't be shocked if Buffalo is dragging a bit coming off a physical Monday night game to play its second straight road contest, but I don't like the Jets' chances against a well-oiled machine.

Why Bobby picked the Jaguars: A 6-2 team with the fourth-ranked scoring offense, second-ranked scoring defense and a +108 point differential is squaring off against a 1-7 squad that has the 28th-ranked scoring offense, 22nd-ranked scoring defense and a -55 point differential. It doesn't take a math whiz to work out that equation. The Jaguars have destroyed both of their opponents following a Week 7 bye, and the Titans haven't showcased an ability to stop that from happening to them. Beyond the numbers, there's anecdotal evidence to suggest Jacksonville could very well play out of its mind on Sunday. The Jags just traded for three defensive difference-makers, making moves for defensive tackle Jordan Davis, DT Davon Godchaux and safety Jessie Bates. In Micah Parsons' first game as a Packer following his '25 trade, Green Bay's defense shut down the Lions while looking like one of the best groups in the league. Since Jeffery Simmons' trade to the Bears two weeks ago, Chicago's D has become a unit transformed. Tennessee was the club that traded away Simmons, and on Tuesday said goodbye to safety Amani Hooker. Just as those departures were likely demoralizing, the energy introduced by taking big swings can go a long way for a defense. The Jags were already a terror defensively, and the front office just put out the word its gunning hard for a Super Bowl. Jacksonville will perform accordingly against a team that was a cellar-dwelling seller at the deadline.

Why Brooke picked the Rams: Even with all the injuries to the Rams' roster -- Puka Nacua is the latest star to be sidelined -- they are big road favorites in the desert. The major reasons for this: First, reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett returned in style last week, logging three sacks and a forced fumble in L.A.'s win. Second, facing Garrett and that formidable defensive front will be third-round rookie quarterback Carson Beck. That's a tough ask for anyone, let alone a guy who has yet to take a regular-season snap. The shorthanded Rams are still the more talented team, and although Arizona (with new Raven Jacoby Brissett in at QB) bested Los Angeles in their first meeting back in Week 6, the Rams shouldn't have an issue stacking their fourth straight win against Beck and Co.

Why Jeremy picked the Seahawks: Fernando Mendoza could not have asked for a more daunting opponent in his first NFL start. The reigning Super Bowl champions' defense hasn't lost its fastball through the 2026 season's first half, ranking first in yards per game, per play and pass yards per game allowed, getting top-tier production without having to blitz (31st-ranked rate in the NFL). In short: Dark Side > Black Hole. Mendoza will be the fifth first-round QB since 1950 to make his first career start against the top-ranked defense in the league; only Phil Simms in 1979 came away victorious. With next to no run game to support Mendoza in this endeavor, it's hard to see the rookie having much success on Sunday. Usually, Seattle starting its backup quarterback (Drew Lock) would give me pause to be so assured of a Seahawks victory. While the game won't be a runaway -- Klint Kubiak knows his former side intimately -- Lock's undefeated run under center for Seattle should continue, as long as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jadarian Price can get loose against the league's bottom-ranked total and run defense.

Why Bobby picked the 49ers: The Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Their victories have come against the Commanders, Texans, Eagles and Colts, who are a combined 9-24-1. Now they face a 7-1 Niners team that is only a couple wins shy of matching that quartet's victory total all on its own. With San Francisco and Dallas' offenses both residing in the top six in the league in scoring, the difference Sunday will likely come down to defense. The 49ers have one -- their unit is also top six in points allowed -- while the Cowboys don't. Despite all of Dallas' work to fix things in the offseason, it's quite clear by now that the defense remains a sieve. The Cowboys are 25th in scoring D, better than their last-place finish last year, but are 30th in total D, just as they were in 2025. That's bad news with Brock Purdy coming to town. The former Mr. Irrelevant is playing more like Mr. MVP. He's thrown for 1,980 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions with a sterling 109.8 passer rating and 69.1 completion percentage. He's liable to tear it up at Jerry's World.

Why Jeremy picked the Bengals: Few offenses are playing better ball than Joe Burrow's Bengals. The MVP candidate's connection with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is hard to defend, and in their first matchup against Pittsburgh, the duo feasted. Yet the Steelers still won at Acrisure, thanks to Aaron Rodgers' immaculate short game and a dual-threat dream of a day from Jaylen Warren. Pittsburgh is coming off its bye, while Cincinnati just returned from its trip to Spain. NFL teams coming off their bye week facing an opponent coming off an international game in the previous week are 5-0 all time, per NFL Research, which bodes well for the Steelers. But the Bengals have already gone toe to toe with Pittsburgh this season, losing due to unforced errors, and will benefit from a prime-time White Out atmosphere on the banks of the Ohio River on Sunday night. Cincy also needs this one more in a battle of 6-2 division rivals. A Pittsburgh win would essentially give the Steelers a two-game lead with the tiebreak. Burrow and Co. should be able to lean on their aerial assault against Pittsburgh's pass defense -- an Achilles' heel on its otherwise-top-five unit -- in addition to an improving ground attack led by Chase Brown. As long as Burrow avoids the turnovers that nearly scuttled Cincinnati's OT win over Tennessee, the Bengals can outshoot Rodgers' more methodical Steelers.

MONDAY, NOV. 16

Why Jeremy picked the Ravens: In the offseason, this mid-November matchup looked electric. On paper, Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel vs. Lamar Jackson was one of the most intriguing offensive matchups of the season. Fast-forward to today and ... not so much. The winless Chargers have no juice, with the Herbert-McDaniel experiment having short-circuited weeks prior. Jackson is on IR, as is his backup, for a Ravens team sliding out of contention in the competitive AFC North. In steps Jacoby Brissett to salvage the intrigue for this Week 10 finale. Brissett is the most competent replacement for Jackson that Baltimore has tried this season and should bring a semblance of balance to an offense that couldn't move the ball with Joe Fagnano under center against Jacksonville. It may be too little, too late for the last-place Ravens, but they are bound for a get-right game against a Los Angeles team that looks (and plays) like it would rather be anywhere else but an NFL field come game day.

Visit ResponsiblePlay.org to learn more about responsible betting.