NFL Week 6 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 6 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 15.
• Stream live local and prime-time games on mobile with NFL+.

THURSDAY, OCT. 15

Why Gennaro picked the Seahawks: Seattle's defense is the best unit in this game. By far. Don't let the 32-29 score from last Sunday's loss to San Francisco fool you; the Seahawks' D did its job, holding the 49ers to a season-low 269 yards while producing three turnovers. Through five weeks, the "Dark Side" sits atop the league in total defense, yards allowed per play and takeaways, while ranking second in pressure rate and third in third-down D. Meanwhile, Denver's defense has taken a step back from last year, thanks to some offseason attrition up front and a few in-season injuries in the back end. Vance Joseph's group still has the ability to carry this team to a win -- like it did last Sunday against the Chargers -- but it hasn't been the havoc-wreaking machine that flirted with the single-season record for sacks in 2025. Both quarterbacks in this prime-time showdown have experienced regression of their own this fall, inherently diminishing their respective offenses. But Seattle has a true trump card in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has backed up his Offensive Player of the Year campaign with an even more dominant showing to start this season, pacing the league in receiving yards (116.6 per game) and touchdowns (seven). With the best unit and the best player in this matchup, the defending Super Bowl champions are hard to pick against. Add in the fact that Mike Macdonald is 16-3 on the road as a head coach, and I see the 'Hawks soaring to a win at Mile High.

SUNDAY OCT. 18

Why Jeremy picked the Texans: For the third time in four years, Jacksonville is playing a second straight game overseas; it won the latter matchup in the previous two instances. The Jags franchise is well-versed in these London tilts and is coming off a dramatic, uplifting victory over the Eagles. Their opponents on Sunday are a woeful 1-4. Houston's starting running back is dealing with an injury. Everything is aligning for another Duval dub, right? Not so fast, my friends! The Texans got right with last week's victory over Tennessee and then added a missing piece with their postgame trade for the untapped Marvin Harrison Jr. No one knows what to expect from the former No. 4 overall pick, including the Jags. Even without Harrison, Houston's offense was performing at a much higher level than Philly's was last week -- though its run game leaves a lot to be desired -- and its defensive front remains one of the league's best, a poor matchup for Duval's banged-up O-line. The fans at Wembley shouldn't expect many points in this one, but the Texans, having finally turned the corner after their 0-4 start, are in position to pull off the upset over a Jacksonville team that isn't quite firing on all cylinders yet.

Why Bobby picked the Bears: Caleb Williams appears to be trending in the right direction after missing three weeks due to his hamstring strain. There's still a question of whether Williams can perform like his same dynamic self -- think back to Lamar Jackson's sapped mobility in 2025 following his own three-game absence with a hamstring injury -- but he could still provide a much-needed spark should he return to the lineup after Chicago's shellacking at the hands of the Packers in Week 5. The name of the game will be getting the ball out quickly against an Atlanta defense that paces the league with 97 pressures. While that's not Williams' normal M.O, he's capable of operating within rhythm, especially with a hammy to protect. The Falcons happen to be dealing with a QB injury of their own, though Michael Penix Jr. is expected to start after missing the end of Atlanta's overtime loss to the Ravens due to a rib injury. Just for the record, I would take Ben Johnson with Williams or Case Keenum over Penix in this one, and Johnson plus any Bears signal-caller (probably dating back to the Jay Cutler years, if we're honest) against the Falcons' underwhelming backup QBs. Another point in Chicago's favor? Bears DC Dennis Allen held Bijan Robinson to 49.0 rushing yards per game in three previous matchups when he was coaching the Saints, per NFL Research.

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: The Ravens got some good news this week as DE Trey Hendrickson and WR Ja'Kobi Lane returned to practice. QB Lamar Jackson's status for Sunday is still uncertain, but it might not matter. Backup Tyler Huntley proved last week to be more than capable of running Declan Doyle's offense and the Derrick Henry-led rushing attack should feast on a Browns unit that could be without Carson Schwesinger (ankle) a week after Braelon Allen ran all over them. Jackson's return would be great for the vibes, but I trust Baltimore's sixth-ranked scoring offense to do enough to outproduce Cleveland's often one-dimensional attack. The run game has been pretty stagnant with Quinshon Judkins, whose averaging a measly 3 yards per carry and also dealing with an ankle injury. Running mate Dylan Sampson could return to action after spending the last month on IR. I like the Browns' talented young receiving corps, and stud rookie Denzel Boston could challenge Baltimore's secondary deep, but until the run game improves, Todd Monken's group will struggle to rise above more complete teams week in and week out.

Why Gennaro picked the Titans: Because no team has ever gone 0-17, and the odds are against Tennessee joining Cleveland and Detroit's winless (0-16) outfits from the recent vintage. Robert Saleh's Titans will hit the winner's circle at some point, and there's no time like the present! First of all, division games always have a "throw out the records" quality to them. And secondly, even though Indianapolis does have two victories to its name -- having beaten Houston (now 1-4) without Nico Collins and Washington (now 1-3-1) without Jayden Daniels -- it hasn't looked anything like the world-beater that went 7-1 in the first two months of last season. Daniel Jones has underwhelmed in his return from last December's Achilles tear, and the offense is particularly punchless with $114 million field stretcher Alec Pierce on injured reserve. That's the Colts' better half, too, as the defense has been a bottom-tier unit through five weeks. Long story short: This is an extremely beatable team. Admittedly, Tennessee has played like the most beatable team in the entire league, particularly on offense, where the Titans rank dead last in points and yards by comfortable margins. But Saleh's D at least has some bite, especially up front. Jeffery Simmons is an absolute force of nature, and while John Franklin-Myers has yet to validate his $63 million deal as a pass rusher, he remains quite effective against the run. Is it that hard to imagine the Titans containing Jonathan Taylor, getting just enough offense from Cam Ward and eking out a low-wattage win?

Why Brooke picked the Patriots: Drake Maye has turned a nice little corner over the last six quarters, completing 71.4 percent of his passes with six TDs and no INTs. That's helped the Patriots to average an NFL-best 37 points per game since Week 4, after posting 12 points per game in Weeks 1-3 (tied for league-worst). That's without No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown, who hasn't played since Week 1 but is eligible to return from IR. He'll be a game-changer for Maye, who leaned on Kyle Williams, Demario Douglas and Efton Chism III against the Raiders, when he does return. That said, Aaron Glenn has a frisky, high-floor defense with an underrated pass rush that could make life uncomfortable for Maye. Though the Jets aren't lighting up the scoreboard on a weekly basis, Geno Smithis playing well right now and generally protecting the football. Despite throwing just six TDs, he's one of four qualified QBs without an INT in 2026 and ranks third in completion percentage (69.4). That'll keep Gang Green in this for a while, but the reality is, New England is playing better ball at the moment. If the Patriots get CB Christian Gonzalez back healthy, they could separate from the division foe sooner rather than later on Sunday.

Why Jeremy picked the Giants: If you like turnovers, boy, do I have a game for you. The skidding Saints are the only team in the league through five weeks with a point differential worse than -30 and turnover margin worse than -5. The first-place Giants are quarterbacked by a giveaway in human form in Jameis Winston. Let chaos reign. New York is undefeated since Winston took over as starter for the injured Jaxson Dart (2-0-1), with the QB doing just enough to avoid falling to its lowly opponents (Tennessee, Arizona, Washington were in the top seven of the 2026 draft). I have more faith this week that Winston will be able to move the ball against a struggling Saints defense than a banged-up Tyler Shough overcoming New York's pressure. Turnovers can swing this game in either direction, but I'll lean toward Big Blue building to a once-inconceivable 4-1-1 start.

Why Bobby picked the Panthers: Bouncing back from a third consecutive defeat -- especially a heartbreaker like the Eagles experienced, capturing and then surrendering the lead in final 10 seconds of their loss to the Jaguars -- is hard enough. The task is made more difficult by the Birds needing to travel back home from London to host the Panthers, who are well-rested coming off a bye. Oh, and quarterback Jalen Hurts is out due to a superficial blood clot. His absence is the latest blow to a Philadelphia squad that has already been dealt a ton of them: Right tackle Lane Johnson abruptly retired last week, the Eagles traded offensive lineman Cam Jurgens and running backs are dropping like flies. Saquon Barkley is the headliner as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, but Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve and Will Shipley could be sidelined multiple weeks after partially tearing his plantar fascia. That makes it tough to envision the Eagles taking full advantage of Carolina's 31st-ranked rushing defense, and Philly's passing offense was already struggling with Hurts to the tune of 170.6 yards per game. Add it all up and Carolina has a considerable edge despite venturing into enemy territory.

Why Dan picked the Steelers: I'm not convinced the Buccaneers have enough offensive juice. Jalon Daniels -- expected to make his third start in place of the injured Baker Mayfield -- has yet to prove he can push the ball down the field. The undrafted rookie might be riding high after last week's upset of the Cowboys, but he's just 4 of 10 for 121 yards, no touchdowns and one interception on passes of 10+ air yards in his two games as a starter. However, it's also hard to trust Aaron Rodgers to avoid a back-breaking mistake against one of the league's better defenses. The Bucs shut down what had been the No. 2 scoring offense last Thursday night, and they have had extra time to prepare for Rodgers and Co. The Steelers' formula for success is pretty straightforward -- they are 2-8 when Rodgers has at least one turnover, including the playoffs. They are 11-1 in his starts when he does not turn the ball over. If the four-time MVP takes care of the rock, Pittsburgh should win, but I'm expecting a low-scoring fight to the finish.

Why Brooke picked the Rams: Weird things happen in this league, but this one feels pretty straightforward. The Rams' offense is averaging 424.4 yards per game, and to be honest, it feels like they haven't come close to reaching peak performance in 2026. Sean McVay has a pick-your-poison attack that makes defenses pay on the regular, and Arizona's league-worst scoring defense will be no match for Matthew Stafford and Co. On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles' defense has been steady, ranking third in yards allowed and fifth on third down, and should do enough to stall an Arizona offense that'll likely have its share of chunk plays featuring Trey McBride but ultimately won't sustain most drives. The Rams' biggest issue has been their special teams, and they didn't waste time replacing kicker Harrison Mevis for Blake Grupeafter Monday night's fiasco. We'll see if one change does the trick.

Why Jeremy picked the Chiefs: An undefeated Andy Reid-coached side coming off a bye against a winless, banged-up Bolts roster? This is the football equivalent of an unstoppable force meeting a movable object. No winless team has beaten a 4-0 or better club since 2002, and such outfits are 2-11 in these matchups since the 1970 merger, per NFL Research. The Chargers have been the most disappointing team in football over the first five weeks, and though they gave the Broncos a run for their money in Week 5, Los Angeles is so riddled with injuries and milquetoast on offense that it's hard to see it keeping the game as close at Arrowhead.

Why Bobby picked the Bills: We are going to know a lot more about who the Raiders truly are a few weeks from now. At one point 3-0, they then narrowly lost to the rival Chiefs before getting utterly dominated by the Patriots in Week 5, and now have games on deck against the Bills and Rams. The Raiders surely aren't as bad as they looked in their 45-17 loss to the Patriots, but are they good enough to take down the Bills? Probably not. After appearing to have one of the more suffocating defenses in the league the first couple weeks, Las Vegas has now given up an average of 34 points in its past three outings. Kirk Cousins and Co. should have an easier time keeping up against Buffalo, but the running game is still a major concern, sitting at 28th in the league with 72 or fewer yards in three of five games in 2026. There's also the superman factor: Josh Allen hasn't been stellar through the air for several weeks now, but he simply finds ways to win, having rushed for 239 yards and a league-leading eight touchdowns. His 5.6 yards-per-carry average is tied for fourth in the league with his teammate James Cook, who is similarly liable to shred a feeble Raiders run defense that hasn't held a team under 120 yards on the ground since Week 1.

Why Dan picked the Packers: It's going to be very difficult for the Cowboys to win with their current defense, and they are running into a team that knows how to exploit their weakness on Sunday night. Dallas is the only NFL team to allow 375 or more yards in each of the first five games. The Cowboys have given up 20+ points in 12 consecutive contests dating back to last season, the league's longest active streak. At least they're consistent. Unfortunately for first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker (and new hire Mike Pettine), the Packers' offense just awoke from its slumber, with Jordan Love dropping deep throws on the Bears repeatedly last week (367 pass yards, two touchdowns). Now WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden -- the only teammate duo to each have 375+ receiving yards -- get to line up across from a secondary that has looked overmatched all season. I'm expecting a better showing from the Dak Prescott-led offense than the dud it produced against the Buccaneers last time out, and having a rest advantage (nine days between games versus six for the Packers) undoubtedly helps, but I have no confidence his defense will support him. Give me the home team in a shootout.

MONDAY, OCT. 19

Why Gennaro picked the 49ers: In the wake of Washington's all-time brain fart to snatch a tie from the jaws of victory, it's hard to even remember what transpired in that game before its inexplicable finish. And that's unfortunate for Jayden Daniels. That afternoon will forever be marred by his 60th and final snap, but he looked pretty damn dynamic in the first 59. Daniels showed no ill effects from the dislocated left elbow that cost him the previous two and a half games, completing 17 of his 25 passes for 199 yards and gashing the Giants for 103 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just nine carries. Frankly, he looked like 2024 Jayden, the guy who ran away with Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and guided the Commanders to the NFC title game. That's the kind of preternatural playmaker who could, in theory, carry an overmatched team to a massive road upset. Throw in the fact that 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw is suspended for Monday night's contest, and it's not hard to imagine last week's ultimate embarrassment giving way to prime-time redemption. Only one problem: The Niners have another linebacker by the name of Fred Warner. You know, the best 'backer in football? Talk about showing no ill effects from injury ... Just over a year removed from the gruesome ankle fracture/dislocation that ended his 2025 campaign, Warner is flying around the field like he never left. And in this island game to close out Week 6, I think he plays a starring role, spawning discussion about an off-ball linebacker winning Defensive Player of the Year for the first time since Luke Kuechly back in 2013.

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