NFL Week 8 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 8 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 29.
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THURSDAY, OCT. 29

Why Dan picked the Packers: It's hard to be excited about the Panthers' trajectory heading into Week 8. They were just blown out, in front of their home fans, by a Bucs team that only needed seven completed passes for 64 yards to win by 30 points. Now Carolina has to go on the road in a condensed week, without a pillar on each side of the line -- the injured RT Taylor Moton and OLB Jaelan Phillips -- against a squad that is one dropped would-be touchdown pass (or two chip-shot field goals, take your pick) away from being 5-2. Yes, the Packers have their own issues, namely finding a way to jump-start a running game that has barely registered a pulse all season. If they can't gain some traction on the ground against the Panthers -- who have now given up 250-plus rushing yards in two separate games this season, including last week's -- it might never happen for Green Bay in 2026.

SUNDAY, NOV. 1

Why Bobby picked the Bills: The numbers are in Buffalo's favor. Josh Allen is 4-2 in his career against Lamar Jackson, including the playoffs, and the Bills are in the midst of a magic run in terms of post-bye wins. The organization has won 11 consecutive games directly after a bye, behind only the Eagles' 13 straight wins from 1999-2011 in the record books. It's a streak that predates Allen, meaning he's never lost an NFL game after being idle the week prior. There's also health to consider. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that Jackson, who has practiced in full so far this week, is expected to return after a three-game absence due to an ankle injury, but will he be the same Lamar who can dismantle defenses with ease? He hasn't historically played well when banged up -- just think back to his struggles last season. If he's at all affected still, that could give Buffalo's beleaguered defense (30th in points allowed; 31st in yards) just enough of a reprieve to make the difference. Even so, the Bills, currently owners of the highest-scoring offense in franchise history (32.8 points per game), have enough firepower to win if a shootout does end up taking place.

Why Bobby picked the Bengals: Cincinnati is maddeningly inconsistent on offense, but when Joe Burrow and Co. are on, no one can touch them. Last week's victory over the Ravens was the most obvious example of Cincy's extreme peaks and valleys this year, as the Bengals managed 59 yards and no points in the first half, only to turn it on for five consecutive second-half touchdown drives in a sudden rout of Baltimore. Despite unpredictability becoming a theme throughout their season, the Bengals still boast the fourth-ranked scoring offense. Regardless of whether they come out firing on all cylinders against Tennessee or not, the talent on the roster should put up enough points to win comfortably over the Titans' anemic offense (31st in points, 32nd in yards). And even if it does turn out to be another one of those oddly frustrating days, the Bengals finally have a tenable backup plan for one of the first times in years: Cincinnati's defense, currently top 10 in points allowed for only the second time this decade, is legitimately good. The Bengals are clearly better than the Titans on both sides of the ball -- especially with Tennessee having just traded its best player in Jeffery Simmons -- and have home-field advantage, to boot. The only obvious element working against them is me picking them with confidence.

Why Gennaro picked the Cowboys: The vibes are trending back up in Dallas, as the Cowboys just emerged from a two-week coma on offense to tag the rival Eagles with a season-high 38 points. And now they get to face the team that has allowed the most points in the league. Arizona's defense has authored two inspiring performances this season; coincidentally, both came in Los Angeles, where the Cardinals held the Chargers and Rams below 17 points and 300 yards in their only two wins of 2026. Outside of SoFi Stadium, the Cards are giving up 35.6 points and 385.2 yards per game. This contest is taking place at AT&T Stadium, which is actually the site of Arizona's last non-SoFi win, in Week 9 of last season. In fact, the Cardinals own a 4-0 record at Jerry World, and they've won eight of their last nine showdowns with the Cowboys. It's a surprising trend that dates back to 2008, but I'm more persuaded by what we just saw from these two teams in Week 7: The Cardinals gave up 30 points to a Broncos team that had previously struggled to put points on the board, while the Cowboys provided their most balanced offensive effort of the season, eclipsing 200 yards passing and rushing. With an offensive line that's coming into its own as a physical force and a collection of dynamic playmakers around Dak Prescott, Dallas just has too much firepower for an Arizona team that still feels like it's a year away from being a year away.

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: How is Jared Goff against the blitz? That's the obvious question for any quarterback facing the NFL's most audacious defensive coordinator. Brian Flores dials up the blitz on a mind-bending 70.8% of pass rushes. That's the highest rate in the league by a mile, per Next Gen Stats, with no other team even reaching 44%. In last week's 16-10 win over Indianapolis, Minnesota sent extra rushers on a staggering 85.2% of Daniel Jones' dropbacks, racking up 15 QB pressures and four sacks. Expect Flores to scale back from that season-high blitz rate in Detroit. For one thing, the DC has immense respect for this particular QB, who's gone 4-2 against his Vikings defense in their time as division rivals.

"Command of the offense, cadence, his ability to just extract information from the defense with shifts, motions, cadence, and his ability to gather that information and make the correct reads, throws ... is high level," Flores said of Goff on Tuesday. "Statistically, he's been one of the best quarterbacks -- not even statistically, period, he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League over a good amount of time.

"He's seen all of the blitzes -- he's seen them all. I think he's one of the best in the league, and they've got a great skill group, and he knows how to distribute the ball to all of them. This is a major challenge -- certainly keeping me up the last couple nights."

Sleeplessness makes sense here. Against the blitz this season, Goff has sparkling production, ranking among the league leaders in passer rating (123.3), completion percentage (70.0), success rate (52.7%) and EPA/dropback (0.25). I think he weathers Flores' storm of pass rushers and hands the Vikings their first loss.

Why Dan picked the Jaguars: Considering the pace of the Colts' fire sale in advance of the Nov. 10 trade deadline, I'm not sure who will be remaining on Indianapolis' active roster by the time we get to Sunday. With Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner already dealt away for draft picks, what was already going to be an uphill climb against the division-leading Jaguars has grown even steeper in recent days. Throw in the fact that Jacksonville should be well-rested, coming off a bye for its first true home game since Sept. 27, and it would appear Liam Coen's crew has a decided advantage in this matchup. The Jaguars' defense sprouted some leaks in its last outing -- allowing 426 yards in a 34-31 loss to the Texans -- but I'm not confident Daniel Jones is the quarterback to locate and exploit anyone's weaknesses right now. Keeping the game close would be an achievement by head coach Shane Steichen given the current he's swimming against this week.

Why Jeremy picked the Jets: Last week in this space, I was confident to the point of cocky. Of course, the Jets would beat the winless Dolphins. The calculus, I said, is simple. I'll be sure to double-check my math this week. New York's embarrassing home loss to Miami looked to some to be the sure death knell to the Aaron Glenn era, but the coach remains, as does a roster that is getting healthier (Breece Hall could return Sunday) just in time to play a similarly skidding Raiders side. Kirk Cousins and the passing game remain uber-productive, and the QB got a vote of confidence from Klint Kubiak this week as Fernando Mendoza beckons, but the Raiders are not playing complementary football right now in all other phases. These are two 3-5 teams in the making, solid rosters without winning instincts. On what could be another soggy afternoon in the Meadowlands, I have more faith in the Jets to grind out a victory in the latest Geno Smith revenge game. Write me off, but keep this receipt.

Why Brooke picked the Steelers: In their first meeting, the Browns' defense controlled the line of scrimmage, sacking Aaron Rodgers five times with 10 total QB hits and keeping the veteran QB all out of sorts. Things have turned a corner for the Steelers' offense in the last three weeks, with Rodgers playing in rhythm, limiting the giveaways and accurately finding his targets to boot -- though there's still a lot of pressure on rookie right tackle Max Iheanachor, who allowed two sacks and seven pressures against the Browns in Week 4. Everything about the 38-year-old quarterback's play has trended upward since their last meeting, and the rushing attack should flex its muscle more this time around with the return of Rico Dowdle. The Browns have rightfully earned their place at the top of the division at the start of November, but how long can they end up on the winning side of close games? We've seen this type of playing with fire before and it rarely lasts. That said, watching this team get meaningful contributions from young players (Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, Spencer Fano, Carson Schwesinger) has been enjoyable and should keep it competitive should they maintain that level. But this Sunday, playing the steadily improving, veteran-laden Steelers within confines of Acrisure Stadium is going to be Cleveland's toughest matchup to date. Pittsburgh improves to 4-0 at home and takes over first place in the AFC North at midseason.

Why Brooke picked the Buccaneers: This NFC South bout features two dynamic rushing attacks and top-five run defenses. Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is the cream of this year's running back crop, leading the pack in rush yards (704), scrimmage yards (907), and explosive carries (five), while Tampa's Bucky Irving has gained 189 yards on missed tackles forced this season, fifth-most league-wide. These two ball-carriers will make their plays, but this contest will be decided by which quarterback -- Michael Penix Jr. or Baker Mayfield -- can protect the ball and best execute through the air against defenses that hold notable advantages in NFL Pro's overall passing efficiency. The latter has played well in Kevin Stefanski's offense, throwing three TDs without an INT in consecutive games. Mayfield wasn't stressed much in last week's win (he threw the ball 11 times), but he'll likely need to rely on that glove-wearing hand to in the very least move the chains, if not make game-winning-type throws late. Getting Emeka Egbuka back would certainly help, and the status of OT Luke Goedeke (calf) looms large. I expect this to be a back-and-forth battle with both teams coming off statement wins, and I'm leaning the Bucs' way if this game does come down to the final minutes, as the Falcons are 0-3 in close contests in 2026.

Why Bobby picked the Chargers: This is the one! The Chargers are shockingly the last winless team remaining in the NFL, but that will all change during Sunday's battle for Los Angeles. Yes, the Bolts have had a terrible go of things. They've averaged 15 points per game, and the top-10 defense of the past two years has vanished after former defensive coordinator Jesse Minter left to helm the Ravens. But when is the last time the Rams looked unbeatable? Probably Week 2 against the Giants? They collapsed against the Broncos in Week 3, pulled through against an Eagles team circling the drain, lost two straight -- including a shocker to the Cardinals -- and then flirted with letting the Raiders back into it in Week 7 after an admittedly terrific first half. They haven't yet proven capable of playing a complete game. Neither have the Chargers, obviously, but perhaps they'll come back rejuvenated after regrouping (and/or cracking open a cold one) over the bye. Jim Harbaugh's crew has come close before. They stormed back against the Seahawks and held second-half leads over the Bills and Broncos before losing to all three in one-possession games. If the Rams leave the door open, the Chargers could finally bolt through it for their first win.

Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: This matchup received the football world's undivided attention back in Week 1, when Kansas City made a 31-10 statement on the Monday night stage. Now, with the division rivalry shifting locales from Kansas City to Denver, and the Broncos finally showing signs of life offensively, it's automatically tempting to back the home team. But I'm left asking myself one question ...

Can Denver stop the run?

The Chiefs rushed for 220 yards against the Broncos in the season opener, with Kenneth Walker III turning 23 carries into 173 yards -- that's 7.5 per tote! Granted, K9 has been running circles around defenders all season. Well, until this past Sunday night, when the Seahawks held their former teammate to just 36 yards on 14 carries -- a meager 2.6 per tote -- and handed the previously perfect Chiefs a humbling 20-3 defeat. Can Vance Joseph's unit provide that kind of ground defense this Sunday? It's a tall task, though Denver has shown some improvement against the run during its current three-game win streak, yielding a middle-of-the-pack figure of 4.2 yards per carry during that span. After spending the first six weeks of the season on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, Jonathon Cooper just made his season debut last Sunday, reinfusing the defense with a powerful edge setter. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' offensive line is highly unstable beyond the Pro Bowl combo of C Creed Humphrey and RG Trey Smith. All that said, Denver must do a better job of tackling. The Broncos memorably missed 28 tackles in the season opener at K.C. -- the most whiffs by any team in a single game over the past three seasons, per NGS -- and comfortably lead the league with 94 missed tackles in 2026. I think they atone for a humiliating Week 1 performance with a more buttoned-up effort in the friendly, Mile High confines, settling the season score with the Chiefs in a low-scoring win.

Why Jeremy picked the Patriots: When the Patriots ship down to Miami, things tend to get a little weird. Think Kenyan Drake, Knowshon Moreno, Davone Bess and A.J. Feeley. For all its success since the turn of the century, New England is just 10-16 in Miami Gardens since 2000, their worst such road record vs. any opponent (min. five road games). Against a competitive Dolphins team coming off its first win of the season, will Mike Vrabel and the Patriots fall victim to the South Florida sickness again? Not so fast, my friends. Vrabel won his Miami debut in 2025, Drake Maye has been dealing since his early season slump, and until last week against the Jets, Miami hadn't led for a single second of action. Jeff Hafley's Dolphins are improving but aren't quite ready to go toe to toe with a top AFC contender like New England.

Why Dan picked the Commanders: Things are getting worse at a troubling clip for Nick Sirianni's Eagles, who were once 2-0. They have the league's second-longest active losing streak (five games) and a -745 differential in total yards (second-worst in the NFL and worst by the Eagles through seven games since 1999). Yes, they have entered worst of the century levels of bad, at least by their standards. The Commanders didn't win in October, either, but they enjoy a significant rest advantage entering Week 8. Washington is coming off a bye, while Philadelphia is playing on a short week after being blown out by the Cowboys on Monday night. Dan Quinn should have ample time to get his players ready to kick a division rival when it's down. Then again, the following from NFL Research makes me wonder if the Commanders can get out of their own way: Jayden Daniels is the eighth player in NFL history to have five or more touchdown passes, at least two rushing TDs and zero interceptions in his first four games of a season. Somehow, not only is Daniels the only member of that exclusive club without a winning record in that span, he didn't notch a single win in those starts (0-3-1). He's too talented to allow this to continue against a defense that appears to be fading fast.

MONDAY, NOV. 2

Why Jeremy picked the Bears: In the NFC title game rematch that could've been, USC legends Sam Darnold and Caleb Williams face off in the NFL for the very first time, each side coming off impressive prime-time victories. In a week full of Games of the Week, this is the Game of the Week. One of the league's hottest offense with Williams back from injury vs. a resurgent "Dark Side" defense fresh off holding Patrick Mahomes out of the end zone. What will either side do for an encore? Well, the game may be decided in the other matchup. The questions will be whether Chicago can limit big plays from Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Seattle offense -- the Bears average a league-worst 6.3 yards per play allowed -- and whether Darnold can avoid giveaways against a turnover-happy Bears defense that just added an All-Pro nose in Jeffery Simmons. (Seattle's mid-week Quenton Nelson acquisition sets up a fascinating clash on the interior.) Playoff seeding could very well be in the balance on Monday night. How will the NFC map look after this Election Day Eve clash? I'm leaning Caleb and crew in a thrilling squeaker.

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