Week 11 NFL picks: Eagles unanimously chosen to beat Commanders on Thursday night; Chiefs or Bills?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their NFL picks for every Week 11 game below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 14 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

THURSDAY, NOV. 14

Why Dan picked the Eagles: Combine the Eagles being able to sleep in their own beds on a short week (home teams are 6-4 on Thursdays this season) with the disparity between these two defenses, and I end up seeing Philadelphia with an edge here. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have flipped a switch on defense, allowing just four touchdowns in their last five games. They now rank seventh in defensive DVOA, while the Commanders rank 25th. Plus, Philly has the power of Vic Fangio on its side. His defenses are 6-2 against rookie QB1s in the past five seasons, holding the opposition to 17.1 points per game and a TD-to-INT ratio of 9:11 in those eight games, per NFL Research. As I said last week in this space -- when I also (successfully) picked against Washington -- I realize Jayden Daniels is a rare talent and the typical rookie QB narratives don't apply to him. Yet, his team had a season-low 242 total yards last week in the loss to the Steelers, and we know Kliff Kingsbury's offenses traditionally gear down around this time of year. I don't see the Eagles' momentum slowing this week.

SUNDAY, NOV. 17

Why Gennaro picked the Packers: Because Matt LaFleur doesn't lose to the Bears. No, seriously. Green Bay's head man is a perfect 10-0 against Chicago with an average margin of victory of 12.7 points. Fresh off a bye week, LaFleur and Co. just had extra time to prepare for this rivalry bout. Oh, and apparently Jordan Love's groin is no longer a concern, as the quarterback is back to practicing in full. Meanwhile, the Bears are teetering on the brink of collapse.

With three straight losses since its own bye week, Chicago has plummeted into the NFC North cellar with no relief in sight. The Bears face the toughest remaining strength of schedule -- by far -- with forthcoming opponents owning a robust .708 winning percentage. The vibes around Halas Hall heading into his gauntlet? Absolutely brutal. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams just lost games to No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels and No. 3 pick Drake Maye, and Chicago hasn't scored a touchdown in its last 23 possessions. In related news, the Bears just fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Did I mention that Chicago's offensive line is an injury-riddled mess and the team's best defensive lineman, Montez Sweat, has a balky ankle?

Perhaps the Bears channel all this adversity into an inspired effort against their chief tormentors. But it feels a lot more likely Green Bay just kicks Chicago while it's down. Again.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: I don't think there is a more lopsided game on the Week 11 slate. Last week, Detroit overcame a 16-point deficit and five Jared Goff INTs(!) to win its seventh consecutive game. Meanwhile, Jacksonville held the Vikings to a season-low 12 points but still lost because the Jaguars couldn't muster even 150 total yards or more than one TD with Mac Jones, who'll get his second straight start in place of an injured Trevor Lawrence. This tilt is all about the Lions, who were gifted this matchup a week after that near-miss in Houston. Goff will be looking to right his wrongs in the pass game against the Jags' last-ranked total defense, and his supporting cast -- the only group in the NFL with three players boasting at least seven scrimmage TDs this season -- shouldn't have trouble gobbling up plenty of yards. Detroit should be well on its way to nine wins by halftime.

Why Tom picked the Dolphins: The season-long picture doesn't offer too much guidance in this matchup; both teams are nestled together near the bottom of the AFC standings, and Miami's D is the only unit solidly above water in total EPA rankings, sitting at No. 11 (34.10), per TruMedia. So let's dig into the vibes. The Raiders might come out of their Week 10 bye with a little extra juice courtesy of new offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who took over for the fired Luke Getsy, but how much can he elevate an attack that has managed fewer yards per play (4.6) than every NFL team but the Patriots, Bears and Browns? Strong quarterbacking and, of course, wins are two reliable drivers of positivity. Vegas has been in short supply there lately, but the Dolphins are trending up in both departments. By the time the first three minutes had elapsed in Monday's contest with the Rams, Tua Tagovailoa and Co. had jumped out to a 7-0 lead. The Fins didn't exactly steamroll L.A. from that point, but they did secure their first win since Tagovailoa returned from a concussion that cost him four games. It's starting to feel like the band is back together, which is something -- and that's a more optimistic take than I can muster about the Raiders (who, for what it's worth, have won just three times in Miami since 1990).

Why Gennaro picked the Rams: On a short week, fresh off a frustrating home loss, the Rams have to travel across the country to face an unfamiliar interconference foe. Conversely, the Patriots are back in the friendly confines after a pair of roadies, having just posted their first double-digit victory in nearly two years. So, why pick the former to beat the latter? Because Shiny Object Syndrome can really burn you in a zero-sum game.

Drake Maye has showcased immense upside in his debut season, but with seven turnovers in five starts -- including four in the last two -- the No. 3 overall pick remains gaffe-prone. No surprise there; such is life for a rookie quarterback. Rookie head coach Jerod Mayo is also finding his way in his new role. And while his defense is coming off a nine-sack demolition of the Bears, the unit is one game removed from giving up 400 yards in a loss to the lowly Titans.

Now, these Rams haven't exactly been a model of stability. Injuries ravaged the offense over the first two months of the season. With the health meter trending up, though, Los Angeles could be poised to make a second-half run for the second straight season. If that is indeed in the cards, this game feels like a must-win.

With Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay on one side, I'll ride with experience over excitement.

Why Dan picked the Browns: I've heard it's good to get out of your comfort zone, so I'm going to try it here: I'm going to trust Jameis Winston to limit mistakes in his return to New Orleans. He's done a Jekyll and Hyde thing in his two starts this season, slicing up a bad defense (334 pass yards, three TDs, no INTs vs. the Ravens) and unraveling against a good defense (235 pass yards, one TD, three INTs vs. the Chargers). Unfortunately for the Saints, they are in the bad defense category this season. Yes, I know they held the Falcons to 17 points last week, but they benefitted from two missed field goals and a blocked kick. New Orleans still ranks 24th in scoring defense and 28th in yards allowed per game. Coming off a bye, Kevin Stefanski should be able to draw up a game plan that allows Cleveland's offense to bounce back from its disastrous Week 9 performance. For all the talk -- including my own -- of Winston's turnover woes, let's not overlook that Derek Carr hasn't been much better at avoiding throwing the ball to the other team. Winston is tied for the most INTs since entering the league in 2015 with 102, while Carr ranks third in that span with 99. Overall, it's hard to trust either team in this matchup.

Why Tom picked the Ravens: I almost went with the Steelers, especially after learning that Lamar Jackson hasn't produced a touchdown -- either on the ground or through the air -- against Pittsburgh since Week 13 of the 2021 season, nearly three full years ago. Mike Tomlin's crew is rolling, and Russell Wilson is surely capable of pushing Baltimore's 32nd-ranked pass defense. Plus, there's the Ravens' tendency to play teams close, which stands out even more against AFC North opponents, who are narrowly outscoring them (101-100) this season. So home-field advantage might tip the Steelers over the edge. But enough about the ways my pick could go wrong. Because -- like so many hapless would-be tacklers -- those worries ultimately did not stand up to the presence of Derrick Henry. The bruising ball-carrier has helped Baltimore top 100 rushing yards in all but one game so far this season. The Steelers have given up 100 rushing yards just three times, but both of their losses are in that group, to the Colts in Week 4 and the Cowboys in Week 5. And just like in those contests, Pittsburgh will be without Alex Highsmith, who helped slow Jayden Daniels last week. I trust Jackson and Henry to give the Steelers enough trouble to make the difference in this one, even with trade acquisition Preston Smith and Nick Herbig -- returning from injury -- on hand to cover for Highsmith.

Why Ali picked the Vikings: Check out this juicy nugget from NFL Research: Since 2010, teams that have committed three or more turnovers and scored zero touchdowns in a single game are 1-147. The lone victor? The Vikings last Sunday in Jacksonville. Nice to make that kind of history if you're Minnesota's defense. Less so if you're Sam Darnold, the source of those three giveaways -- all of which occurred in Jags territory. It'd be one thing if Darnold's carelessness was an isolated incident, but no player has had more turnovers over the past four weeks than the Vikings passer (seven). Zone schemes, specifically split-safety looks, have been particularly problematic for Darnold, who's forcing far too many downfield throws into coverage. His recent recklessness would be a cause for concern against most opponents, but there are few teams less equipped to capitalize on giveaways this year than the Tennessee Titans.

If NFL games were 30 minutes long, the Titans might be a legit playoff contender: They've been tied or leading going into halftime in six of their nine outings so far. Unfortunately, they've been abysmal after the break, getting outscored by 76 points in second halves this season -- 17 more than the next-closest team -- in part because they're tied for the worst turnover margin in the final two quarters (nine giveaways to one takeaway). The Vikings, meanwhile, have forced the most second-half turnovers in the league (14).

For Minnesota to get where it ultimately wants to go, it needs Darnold to play far better than he has of late. This weekend, though, Minnesota's defense should be more than capable of showing out should Bad Sam show up. This one might be uncomfortably close to start, but the Vikings should pull away by the final whistle.

Why Brooke picked the Jets: The biggest storyline coming in is Indianapolis' decision to turn back to Anthony Richardson for the rest of the season. The Colts badly need a spark -- will the QB about-face be it? -- after falling flat in two games with veteran Joe Flacco and after several of Indy's best players voiced concern about the team's effort. Richardson will be welcomed back by a New York team that boasts a top-10 overall and scoring defense, allowing just 12.3 points per game at MetLife Stadium this season. We can expect a heavy dose of the dual-threat QB and Jonathan Taylor in the run game against the Jets' 25th-ranked run defense. (I sure hope those re-learned tackling tips stick.) Like Indy's offense, New York's attack has been extremely inconsistent, with Aaron Rodgers and his supporting cast still struggling to be on the same page for more than a few plays at a time. One positive for that unit: The Colts are allowing the sixth-most pass yards per game this season and 24.7 points per game in their last three contests (all losses). In a matchup between subpar teams, the unit I have the most trust in -- and honestly, it's not much -- is New York's defense.

Why Dan picked the Broncos: When these two teams collide -- with both squads extremely hungry to end long playoff droughts -- it looks to me like the matchup favors the rookie QB (Bo Nix) over the crafty veteran (Kirk Cousins). For one thing, the Broncos have a top-five defense that held Patrick Mahomes and Co. to one touchdown last week. Cousins has been a different QB this season depending on the quality of the group lining up across from him. He has 12 TD passes and one INT versus bottom-five defenses (based on their rank entering Week 11). Against top-27 defenses, he has five TD passes and seven INTs. In addition, no team blitzes at a higher rate than Denver (43.1 percent, per Next Gen Stats), which seems unfair to a not-particularly-mobile Cousins, who has a 59.3 percent completion rate against the blitz in 2024 (25th among 35 qualified QBs). While the Broncos can crank up the heat, the Falcons have the lowest pressure rate and fewest sacks in the league. That should play into the hands of Nix, who has done reliably solid work over the past several weeks.

Why Ali picked the 49ers: The Seahawks return from their week off in must-win mode. Losing five of their last six, including at home to San Francisco, has left them with few outs -- even fewer should they fall on Sunday. The only way out of their slump is through it. For Seattle, that means beating their division rival for the first time since Dec. 2021 (0-6, including playoffs).

How will this team respond after some much-needed self-evaluation? Will a collective look in the mirror and a linebacker change cure Mike Macdonald's ailing defense? He better hope so, with a healthy Christian McCaffrey set to make his 2024 home debut. The 49ers are no stranger to playing teams fresh off the bye, with Sunday's contest marking the seventh such game since the start of last season -- three more than the next-closest team. But it's how the 49ers have fared in games after their break that is most telling. Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 44-18 in all games played after the team's bye, including 1-0 so far this year and an NFL-best 17-2 since 2022. The vibe, the precedent, the veteran experience, the offensive and defensive matchups, all lean San Francisco's way. But as I noted last week, division games are weird (nice one, New Orleans!), so I wouldn't sleep on Seattle keeping this one interesting.

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Why pick against the NFL's last remaining undefeated team? The Chiefs haven't lost a game since last Christmas, winning their second straight Super Bowl in the process. At first blush, this feels like a fool's errand. Maybe it is! Fading Patrick Mahomes feels like fading the sun. But the best player in the sport is having his worst statistical season. And Kansas City hasn't exactly rampaged its way to 9-0, winning seven games by one possession. Shoot, the Chiefs don't even have the best point differential in their own division. And now they're visiting a Bills team that has won 22 of its last 24 regular-season games at home and boasts the top point differential in the AFC this year. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, and Buffalo presents matchup problems to Kansas City in certain areas. In fact, the Bills appear poised to attack the Chiefs' one true Achilles' heel.

Kansas City has a major issue at left tackle. The Chiefs have tried out rookie Kingsley Suamataia and second-year pro Wanya Morris at the crucial position, but neither has shown the ability to protect Mahomes' back. That could be a serious problem against an emerging star in Buffalo. Greg Rousseau is enjoying a breakout season in Year 4. The long, strong, freakishly athletic edge lines up over the right tackle on most early downs. But on passing downs, the Bills like to insert Von Miller at LOLB, sending Rousseau across the formation to hunt from the blind side. This prediction says the man nicknamed "Groot" significantly impacts this game by exploiting K.C.'s weakest link.

Why Tom picked the Chargers: Over the past three weeks, the Chargers have converted me into a true believer, boosting their balanced attack with increasingly, ahem, beastly quarterback play from Justin Herbert. Their opponents this Sunday, on the other hand, might be so flawed that they end up wasting all-star QB play -- a former specialty of the pre-Jim Harbaugh Bolts. Joe Burrow should provide a nice test for L.A., which has responded well to a softer stretch of the schedule, ascending to contender status by winning three straight against the Saints, Browns and Titans. The Bengals' offense should be able to put up points, perhaps at a higher clip than the three offenses that foiled the Chargers earlier this season (the Steelers, Chiefs and Cardinals). Then again, those losses were bunched before Herbert -- who was perhaps hampered by an ankle injury -- leveled up to beast mode. Over the past three weeks, Herbert is averaging 9.4 yards per throw, which is not the greatest sign for a Cincinnati team that is 0-4 in games against QBs who are topping 8 yards per toss this season (Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels).

MONDAY, NOV. 18

Why Brooke picked the Texans: The schedule-makers are here for you, CeeDee Lamb, providing a sunless prime-time game at AT&T Stadium. (You know I wasn't not going to discuss this.) In all seriousness, both of these teams are hobbling toward this Battle of Texas, with Dallas losing four straight and Houston falling in three of its last four. Dallas' offense feels too far gone. The run game ranks second-to-last in the NFL and neither QB option (starter Cooper Rush, backup Trey Lance) averages more than 200 pass yards per game in the NFL. On the other side, Houston could get top receiver Nico Collins back this week, which would, as DeMeco Ryans said, "help everybody" -- but namely, C.J. Stroud. The second-year QB's production is night and day with Collins on the field this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

• Collins on the field: 151 dropbacks, 70.5 completion percentage, 8.5 pass yards/attempt, 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 107.0 passer rating.
• Collins off the field: 237 dropbacks, 57.9 completion percentage, 6.4 pass yards/attempt, 5:4 TD-to-INT ratio, 77.1 passer rating.

Even with Micah Parsons back in the fold for the Dallas D, Bobby Slowik's offense is in good position to have its best output in a while, even if Collins doesn't play. The Cowboys have the worst red zone defense league-wide, second-worst run defense and are allowing the second-most points per game (28.8) -- including an incredible 38.3 points per game yielded at home!

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