NFL Week 6 picks & predictions: Eagles beat Giants in tight TNF showdown

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 6 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 9.

THURSDAY, OCT. 9

Why Tom picked the Eagles: The vibes are different in New York with Jaxson Dart at quarterback -- but they aren't that different. Likewise, the Eagles are looking a bit suspect, with a few weeks of iffy play preceding their first actual loss of the season -- but they aren't looking that suspect. The normal TNF chaos factor gets a little bit of a bump here from Philly's injury report, with Landon Dickerson ruled out and Jalen Carter listed as questionable. Plus there's whatever psychic baggage the famously chill defending champs might still be carrying four days after falling on their faces against Denver. The Giants' defensive front is legit, capable of giving Jalen Hurts and Co. enough trouble to at least keep the handwringing about the offense going strong for another week. The talent gap is just too wide, especially with Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton out of the equation, to bank on this ultimately being more than a chance for Dart to test his mettle against Vic Fangio in prime time. Things could continue to be sweaty on the Eagles' sideline, but the more experienced and potent roster should eventually win out.

SUNDAY, OCT. 12

Why Brooke picked the Broncos: The Broncos couldn't feel any better coming into this game, having just upset the defending Super Bowl champions on the road. A lot is going right for Sean Payton's team right now. Its defense is giving up just 16.8 points per game (second in the NFL), leads the league in sacks with 21 (14 of which have come without blitzing) and ranks top three on third down and in the red zone. The Broncos' fourth-ranked rushing attack is the perfect motor while young QB Bo Nix continues to develop and get in sync with his targets. On paper, this is an ideal matchup for Nix and Co., as the Jets rank 31st in scoring defense (31.4 ppg), 27th in rushing defense (140.4 ypg) and dead last in takeaways (zero). New York head coach Aaron Glenn has voiced that he hopes this trip to London will help his winless Jets come together and reset. Hope unfortunately doesn't always result in wins, especially in a matchup as tough as this. The Jets need more than just Garrett Wilson, who has accounted for nearly 40 percent of the team's receiving yards this season, to show up. Sure, there have been plenty of upsets this season, but it's tough to see one here, with the opposite ways these two clubs are trending.

Why Gennaro picked the Rams: The Rams rank second in total offense, while the Ravens rank second-to-last in total defense, presenting an obvious mismatch in Los Angeles' favor. And yet, I'd rather talk about what to expect when the Ravens have the ball -- because that makes me even more bullish on the Rams. It goes without saying that Baltimore isn't the same without Lamar Jackson, who appears likely to miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury, but the quarterback's health isn't the Ravens' only problem on offense. Derrick Henry ran wild in the season opener at Buffalo, but a late fumble helped cost Baltimore the game -- and seemingly sent the 31-year-old back into a tailspin. In the four games since, Henry has carried the ball 46 times for just 148 yards (3.2 ypc) with two touchdowns and two fumbles (one lost). That is NOT encouraging entering this contest, given how the Rams have fared against star rushers over the past three weeks:

• Saquon Barkley in Week 3: 18 carries for 46 yards (2.6 ypc) and zero TDs.
• Jonathan Taylor in Week 4: 17 carries for 76 yards (4.5 ypc) and zero TDs.
• Christian McCaffrey in Week 5: 22 carries for 57 yards (2.6 ypc) and zero TDs.

It sure feels like Baltimore needs a superhuman performance from King Henry in order to win this game, but L.A. hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher this season.

Why Ali picked the Cowboys: Rico Dowdle wasted zero time turning the page to the Cowboys after last Sunday's game, warning his former team to "buckle up" just minutes after tearing through the Dolphins with 234 scrimmage yards -- 206 on the ground -- in Carolina's gritty come-from-behind win. And buckle up they better, because whether Dowdle is getting 20+ touches again, or is splitting carries with running mate Chuba Hubbard (who's nursing a calf injury), Dallas' questionable run defense is going to be tested. The unit has surrendered at least 140 rushing yards in back-to-back games and enters Week 6 tied for the fifth-most explosive runs allowed. But it's not like Carolina's run D has been that much better. Prior to a dominant showing against Miami, the Panthers ranked among the least efficient run stoppers in the league -- a potential problem versus the NFL's third-leading rusher in Javonte Williams.

So let's say the ground games cancel each other out. Then it's a matter of who has the edge through the air. That would be Dallas. The Panthers' pass defense, which started out hot, has been vulnerable over the past two weeks. They rank 31st in CPOE (10%) and passer rating allowed (131.6) during that span, with the latter registering six points higher than the 30th-ranked Jets (125.1) -- whom Prescott torched in Week 5 (4 TDs, 0 picks). As promising as Tetairoa McMillan has looked early in Year 1, his Panthers are far from offensive dynamos, reaching the 30-point threshold only once this season. Dak & Co. are averaging 30.2. I'll take Dallas in a potentially high-scoring affair.

Why Tom picked the Colts: Because somehow, some way, through the magic of the NFL, the team of Daniel Jones is a lightning-hot juggernaut, and the team of Kyler Murray is a stunted mess. The Cardinals might be 2-3 in real life, but the demoralizing nature of their three-game skid -- defined by blown leads and decided by a combined margin of five points -- makes it feel like they've somehow lost more games than they've played this season. It is not a great sign that the potential absence of Murray, who is throwing for less than 200 yards per game, does not really factor into my decision-making process here. The Colts, meanwhile, are riding higher than they have since the heady days of 2013, which was the last season in which they started 4-1. Teams have enjoyed more success throwing the ball against Arizona (averaging 252.4 passing yards this season) than running it (92.4 rushing yards), suggesting this might be more of a Jones game than a Jonathan Taylor showcase. That does make me a tad bit nervous, but Shane Steichen should have little trouble with Jonathan Gannon's crew -- a statement about the former Eagles co-workers that would have seemed pretty outlandish to make just one month ago.

Why Gennaro picked the Seahawks: It's a week for cross-country road trips in the NFL, with the Rams visiting the Ravens, the Chargers visiting the Dolphins and the 49ers visiting the Buccaneers. But those three flights all fall short of Seattle's diagonal voyage across the continental United States, from up in the Pacific Northwest down to Florida's Atlantic Coast. Fortunately, the Seahawks have proven to be road warriors under second-year head coach Mike Macdonald, boasting a sparkling 9-1 record in the unfriendly confines since the beginning of last season. Seattle has actually won eight roadies in a row -- a franchise record and the longest active streak in the NFL -- with three of the victories coming by double digits. To keep the good times rolling on the road, the 'Hawks must take care of the football. Seattle had two costly turnovers in this past Sunday's 38-35 loss to Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville leads the league with a whopping 14 takeaways. In his most recent visit to EverBank Stadium last November, Sam Darnold threw three picks -- actually four, with one negated by penalty -- but his Vikings still prevailed over a banged-up and beaten-down Jaguars team, 12-7. Darnold won't have that margin for error against these Jags, with Trevor Lawrence and Co. fresh off an inspired comeback win over the Chiefs.

Why Dan picked the Chargers: The Chargers have plenty of reasons to come up short on Sunday. They're down two starting offensive tackles, their top edge rusher remains sidelined and they just lost their first-round rookie running back for at least four games. Also, they have to travel across the country for a 10 a.m. PT kickoff. Not ideal. I should mention that Los Angeles just blew a 10-point lead, which must be sticking in Jim Harbaugh's craw. Fortunately for him, it looks like there are few better de facto stress relievers for the opposition than the Dolphins, who one-upped the Bolts by blowing a 17-point lead last week, punting on six of their final seven possessions. Now, Miami still has the pass-rush talent to get after Justin Herbert while he plays behind a weakened offensive line, which is what gives me pause about this pick. In the end, I'm expecting a bounce-back effort from Jesse Minter's defense after last week's rough afternoon. Stopping Tua Tagovailoa is a more manageable task than reeling in Jayden Daniels, and this week’s acquisition of Odafe Oweh should only help Minter's cause.

Why Brooke picked the Steelers: Tough assignment for Cleveland this week, flying home from London only to immediately hit the road and face a Pittsburgh team coming off the bye. The Browns are fully aboard the Dillon Gabriel train after trading away Joe Flacco, with the rookie QB showing enough in his starting debut with two touchdowns against Minnesota. There's promise there, but can he and fellow rookies Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and the veteran-laden Steelers? It's hard to say, considering the defenses each team will face. Buoyed by veterans T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward, the Steelers have clamped down defensively over their last two games, allowing 35 total points with seven takeaways and 11 sacks in that span. Cleveland's defense has been stout in its own right, allowing the second-fewest yards per game to offenses this season. At this point, Pittsburgh feels much more reliable and has extra motivation with the rest of the AFC North crumbling before our eyes. I expect a hard-fought divisional bout with the advantage ultimately tilting the way of a well-rested Steelers team.

Why Ali picked the Patriots: New England and New Orleans both enter this matchup glowing in the aftermath of glorious Week 5 wins. For the Pats to keep the good times rollin', they mainly need to stop getting in their own way. (Enough with the fumbles already!) For the Saints to go back-to-back, they'll need to be more aggressive (and effective) throwing downfield. So far, Kellen Moore has been fairly conservative with Spencer Rattler, relying on quick-passing concepts and a commitment to the ground game. Against a Pats defense that's been dominant versus the run but susceptible to air damage, Rattler will have to deliver at the intermediate and deep levels. Can the second-year passer handle the extra responsibility? I think so. He's played far better than the Saints' record might suggest. But when it comes to which outfit I trust more right now, it's hard not to side with a New England team that just knocked off the Bills in Buffalo and seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week. If the Pats can hold on to the ball -- a big if, considering the Saints are tied for fifth in takeaways -- they'll hold on to win this weekend.

Why Dan picked the Raiders: No, there isn't a good reason to feel confident in either 1-4 franchise at the moment, even on the heels of the Titans' first win (courtesy of an epic Cardinals meltdown). So, I'm giving the edge to the home team, which did beat what seems to be a decent Patriots squad in Week 1. That feels like ages ago, as the wheels have completely come off since then for the Raiders, who have lost four straight (three by double-digits). But NFL interceptions leader Geno Smith isn't this bad, is he? Sunday's game should be where Smith shakes off his brutal start to the season and plays largely mistake-free ball to help Las Vegas get out of free-fall against a rookie quarterback who ranks last or second-to-last in basically every meaningful passing category. I know Smith is without his starting left tackle and Brock Bowers could be out another week, which doesn't help, but if the Raiders can't generate significant movement in the ground game against the league's 30th-ranked rush defense, I'm not sure when the bleeding stops for them this season.

Why Tom picked the Buccaneers: When two apparent smoke-and-mirror outfits face off, it's time to ask yourself what you believe -- and, well, I unapologetically believe in Baker Mayfield. I recognize that San Francisco -- powered lately by overachieving understudies -- is exactly the kind of opponent that could grind the Bucs down, keeping them on their heels until there is not enough time left to pull off even the most daring escape act. The 49ers just used a similar formula to scratch out a win over Matthew Stafford and the Rams, after all. But that was on a short week in the Pacific time zone. Can the undermanned Niners secure a second straight upset -- on the other end of the country, against an opponent as irrepressible as this Tampa team? The partnership between Mayfield and Todd Bowles seems to be rolling at a fever pitch. Both starting lineups are on track to have some serious holes in them, as per usual, but of all the players who we think will play, the Bucs' combo of Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs and Emeka Egbuka gives me the most confidence.

Why Gennaro picked the Packers: Just before the 2025 campaign kicked off, Green Bay pulled off a tectonic trade for a true superstar in his prime. Then, in short order, the Micah Parsons-infused Packers sprinted out the gates with a pair of statement wins, careened off the rails in the young season's most shocking loss, forgot how to play defense in a 40-40 tie and promptly hit the bye. Rise, fall, exit stage -- in just over a month's time. That kind of topsy-turviness could give a roller coaster whiplash. Consequently, Packer backers are left wondering the same thing as the rest of us:

What IS this team?

With that question hanging in the Green Bay air, the Packers return to action with an extraordinarily desirable assignment: hosting an overmatched team that is a) fresh off its third straight blowout loss and b) starting its third quarterback in Week 6. Oh, and did I mention that the new QB joined the team on Tuesday? And he just happens to be the opposing signal-caller from the Packers' aforementioned shocking loss? Yeah, I know Cleveland's win over Green Bay was spearheaded by Quinshon Judkins and the defense, not Joe Flacco. But that's also kind of the point here: The Pack get a second crack at the 40-year-old Flacco without having to face the Browns' suffocating defense. So, while I admittedly don't know what this Green Bay team is, I'm pretty certain it's about to be 3-0 at home.

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: I don't feel good about picking against the Lions. They have looked like the best team in the league for a month now, while the Chiefs are trying to regroup on a short week after Monday night's soul-crushing loss in Jacksonville. Teams coming off an MNF defeat this season are 0-6, but maybe this is where the streak ends. There were glimmers of hope, even in bitter defeat, for the reigning AFC champions. The offense is moving in the right direction, with the Patrick Mahomes-led passing game improving since Xavier Worthy returned from injury in Week 4. Kansas City has scored 28 or more points in back-to-back games for the first time since late in the 2022 season. I'm expecting the Chiefs to continue at that pace against a Detroit defense that is badly beaten up at cornerback right now. Now, the question is whether Steve Spagnuolo can get his group to tighten up -- especially against the run -- at least enough for the team to win a shootout at home. I'll believe for at least one more week.

MONDAY, OCT. 13

Why Ali picked the Bills: Back in August, I lamented how difficult the 2025 Falcons were to project. I expected them to be better offensively but still frustratingly inconsistent from week to week. Four games in, and I'm as perplexed by Atlanta now as I was in the preseason. How do you confidently predict anything from a squad that can absolutely shut down the Vikings in Minnesota one week, and then lose 30-0 to Carolina the next? Is Atlanta's defense as good as the numbers suggest (No. 1 in total yards, pass yards and first downs allowed per game)? Is Michael Penix Jr. turning a corner after turning in arguably his top performance as a pro? Is Bijan Robinson the best player in the NFL? (I don't know. Maybe. Probably not.) What I do know, though, is Robinson is an absolute nightmare to defend. If he can get going against the Bills' banged-up front seven, and Atlanta's defense can play to its ranking, then the home underdogs have a legit chance to pull off the prime-time upset. But picking against Josh Allen does not feel good. In fact, it feels quite bad. I'd rather be wrong backing the reigning MVP than fade him and risk suffering through four quarters of his inimitable heroics. Sorry, Falcons fans ... I really do think you can win this one.

Fun fact: Since 2018, just three QBs have a win percentage of .700 or higher following a loss: Lamar Jackson (.800), Patrick Mahomes (.800) and Josh Allen (.750). Jackson and Mahomes have already dropped back-to-back games this season. Is Allen next?

Why Tom picked the Commanders: I just don't trust Caleb Williams yet. And, more to the point, I don't trust Chicago's defense -- which has permitted opposing offenses to roll up 421 yards per game over the Bears' past three contests -- to keep the Commanders within reach for 60 minutes. I get what Ben Johnson means when he says this is "a new team" compared to the group that melted down at Washington less than one calendar year ago, but, well, it's the same location, the same opponent and, really, in a lot of ways, uh ... kind of the same team. I'm less concerned about Chicago's ability to exorcise old demons under its new coach and more preoccupied with the questions that have lingered around Caleb and the Bears since that point of divergence for these two franchises. Can Williams play consistently well? Can the roster support him? We still can't answer those questions today with much more certainty than we could last October. It seems Washington could be without Terry McLaurin again, but the Commanders jumped to a different tier when these squads last met, and I'm not confident the Bears can catch up on Monday.

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