NFL Week 13 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 13 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 26.

THURSDAY, NOV. 27

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: Altogether, this year's Thanksgiving spread looks absolutely delicious. A flavorful football feast, starting with the first course, which Dan Campbell couldn't help but salivate over on Tuesday: "Big-time opponent, really good team, division game, Thanksgiving, first game on -- you couldn’t ask for anything better." Agreed. And in the midst of a hotly contested, three-team race in the NFC North, Campbell's crew faces immense pressure to hold serve against the Packers, having lost the season opener in Green Bay. Jeff Hafley's defense dominated that game, holding the Lions to their lowest yardage total of the season (246) and fewest rushing yards since 2023 (46). Most impressively, the Pack limited Jahmyr Gibbs to 50 yards on 19 touches -- 2.6 yards per touch. Is that a figure Green Bay can replicate? On the fast track at Ford Field? Color me skeptical -- highly skeptical. Gibbs, of course, just turned 26 touches into 264 yards, three touchdowns and innumerable Dan Miller fist pumps. Granted, that came against the Giants' defense, which can't hold a candle to this Micah Parsons-led unit. That said, the Packers have allowed more points on the road -- and shown cracks against the run in November. Meanwhile, Green Bay's offense has been acutely underwhelming throughout the month, having just gone three straight games with fewer than 300 yards for the first time in Matt LaFleur's tenure. In a high-stakes bout between imperfect, battered contenders who know each other well, I see the home team making a few more plays to even the season score. In Jah I trust.

Why Brooke picked the Cowboys: Here we have two teams fresh off thrilling come-from-behind victories. But this is a must-win game for both, with significant implications on their respective playoff outlooks. The Cowboys appear to be heating up for the stretch run. Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level and leading a unit that ranks No. 1 in total offense and fourth in scoring. However, the big story with that team is the recent defensive improvements since trading for DT Quinnen Williams, who made his Cowboys debut in Week 11.

For the record, Dallas ranked in the bottom five in all five of those defensive categories before its bye week. So that turnaround feels like bad timing for a Chiefs offense that has largely struggled over the last month but still ranks fifth overall and ninth in scoring. The struggles have derived from Patrick Mahomes. Since Week 9, he's thrown just one touchdown pass against three interceptions, but we've watched him long enough to know that can change on a dime, especially with his receivers all healthy. One area defenses can't account for pre-snap is scrambles. Mahomes leads the NFL with 557 yards on such runs, per Next Gen Stats, so keeping him contained in the pocket is key for Matt Eberflus' front. Perhaps we shouldn't expect Dallas' offense to move the ball easily, either. The Chiefs boast the fourth-ranked scoring defense behind the play of George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie. The Chiefs are favored on the road, but the atmosphere inside AT&T Stadium during Dallas' annual Thanksgiving Day tilt combined with the recent improvement on defense is telling my gut one thing: Dak is about to improve to 5-4 in games on Turkey Day.

Why Dan picked the Ravens: Not much has gone right for the Bengals this season, but they're getting some relief. Joe Burrow makes his long-awaited return from turf toe on Thanksgiving night, which absolutely matters. He's the type of player who immediately changes the vibe, giving a team confidence it previously lacked. Yet, he can't magically transform the league's worst defense or fix an offensive line that remains a glaring issue. Lamar Jackson does not appear to be in peak form right now, which gives Cincinnati an opening. If the Ravens come out flat, Burrow and Co. might take the momentum and never look back. But I can't overlook Baltimore ranking fourth in QB pressure rate over the past two weeks, and while the Bengals get Ja’Marr Chase back from suspension, they'll be without No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins, who was ruled out with a concussion early in the week. I'll give the edge to the home team. The Ravens should know they can't take their foot off the gas even after five consecutive wins. Not with the division race neck and neck. A Burrow-led upset should not shock anyone, though.

FRIDAY, NOV. 28

Why Tom picked the Eagles: I sort of feel sick about it, because it means trusting them to straighten up and take care of business, which hasn't exactly been their thing this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are rolling into town as something like the anti-Eagles, overcoming flaws and injury issues with on-point coaching and real chutzpah. In a way, Chicago almost feels like a safer choice, comparatively free of expectations and happy to scrap until the final whistle. The Bears have also played like one of the more solid teams in the NFL since their Week 5 bye, ranking seventh in EPA per play on offense (0.06) and 15th in EPA per play on defense (-0.06) in that span, while the Eagles have looked extremely ordinary since their own break at the beginning of the month, eking out a pair of low-scoring wins before melting into a puddle against the Cowboys. So far, this is reminding me of Bills-Texans last Thursday, when I laid out all the ways Houston could pull off an upset, only to erroneously back the Bills because of One Special Superpower (in that case, Josh Allen). Didn't I learn my lesson? Well, yes, actually, because my main takeaway from that game was to believe in the stronger defense -- and that, for all their mess, is what the Eagles have in this matchup. Vic Fangio's crew has been near the top of the league all year, ranking sixth in EPA allowed per play (-0.11) and eighth in points allowed per game, providing a pretty stiff spine beneath all the soapy headlines. I'm banking on it being the difference on Black Friday.

SUNDAY, NOV. 30

Why Ali picked the Rams: The Rams have been the most dominant team in the league since mid-October, pummeling opponents with suffocating defense and ruthlessly efficient offense. They've won at home, on the road, overseas, in prime time, on the East Coast, the West Coast, you name it. Seemingly the only thing Sean Mcvay's team hasn't been able to do this season is consistently kick the ball through the uprights. And they've addressed even that issue … by simply not trying anymore: The Rams have the fewest field-goal attempts in the league (five) since their six-game win streak began in Week 6. Of course, it's easy to skip settling for three points when you're consistently scoring six. And no team has hit paydirt more than the Rams over the previous seven weeks (25) -- and that's with them spotting several teams an extra game (L.A. had its bye in Week 8). So, if you haven't picked up on it yet, I'm taking the current NFC leaders to extend their run to seven at Carolina, clinching McVay's first undefeated November along the way.

Why Brooke picked the 49ers: After helping the Browns win in his first NFL start, Shedeur Sanders now faces Robert Saleh's unit. It doesn't sound great at first blush, but it might not be a bad thing. Rookie starting QBs have thrown 14 pass TDs and just two INTs with a 7-6 record vs. Saleh as an NFL head coach or defensive coordinator. However, the 49ers defense just held the Panthers to nine points and has forced five turnovers over the last two games. Even with all the injuries to Saleh's group, Sanders is facing a scarier unit than he did last week. The biggest question is how will Brock Purdy, who threw three INTs in Monday's win, and the 49ers offense fare against Myles Garrett and Cleveland's No. 2 overall defense? The Defensive Player of the Year front-runner has an astounding 18 sacks in 11 games. That's already a career high with six games remaining -- and, perhaps even more notable, that's five more sacks than the 49ers have as a team. I don't envision another 10-sack performance from the Browns' defensive front this week, as San Francisco's O-line has allowed a total of 19 sacks on the year. The Browns will likely disrupt Kyle Shanahan's pass game some, so I expect he'll continue leaning on Christian McCaffrey to alleviate some pressure off Purdy. CMC has received 30-plus touches in five games this season (all wins), so that might be the smart move in this matchup. Overall, I need to see more positive play from Sanders before I can trust him against an eight-win team.

Why Dan picked the Texans: The odds seem to be stacked against the Texans in this matchup of their No. 1 total defense against the Colts' No. 1 scoring offense. Since 2000, the No. 1 scoring offense is 5-0 versus the No. 1 total defense in Week 10 or later, per NFL Research. Also, the Colts don't lose at home. They haven't done so since Nov. 24, 2024. Yet, as good as Indianapolis' offense has been this season, I believe the most dominant unit in this game right now is DeMeco Ryans' defense. The Daniel Jones-led Indy offense stalled out late in last week's loss to the Chiefs. Now it has to go up against a suffocating group led by Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. This Texans D is all gas, no brakes. They are the only team in the NFL to have more interceptions (12) than touchdown passes allowed (10). If Houston takes care of the ball on offense -- whether it's Davis Mills or C.J. Stroud under center -- this is a very tough squad to beat, as Josh Allen can attest. On Sunday, we'll either see the Colts earn a statement victory or watch the AFC South race take a downright compelling turn. Give me the chaos.

Why Tom picked the Dolphins: Because these aren't your slightly older sibling's Miami Dolphins. If you tuned out on the Fins after they tumbled and bumbled to a 1-6 start in the first two months of the season, you would be forgiven for thinking they are still one of the league's pushovers, ready-made to give even the most desperate outfit a relatively easy W. But narrow your filters to the four games preceding Miami's Week 12 bye, and you're looking at a much different team, a perfectly mediocre group putting up perfectly respectable numbers (15th in EPA per play on offense and 12th in EPA per play on defense in that span). The Saints have been capable of surprising this season, and their defense has actually been about as good as Miami's since Week 8 (12th in per EPA per play, including Week 12), but the offense has been an issue, with the fledgling Tyler Shough regime yielding 10 points per game so far. It's tough to win games like that, let alone against a foe on a we're not necessarily as bad as you think rampage. Miami can do enough to pull another one out.

Why Gennaro picked the Jets: Kirk Cousins and Tyrod Taylor both became full-time starters for the first time back in 2015. In fact, they faced off late in that season, with Cousins producing five touchdowns in a 35-25 win that eliminated Buffalo from playoff contention and moved Washington one step closer to the NFC East crown it would ultimately wear. A decade later, Cousins and Taylor meet for the second time, but their teams -- and their circumstances -- have changed. Both are past-their-prime veterans essentially serving mop-up duty on lost seasons, guiding a pair of disappointing teams that ironically have stumbled to the exact same point total: 219 (19.9 per game, ranking 26th). So, which squad will break the tie by scoring more points in this clash of the also-rans? Well, Atlanta's defense has been superior over the course of the season, but New York has surprisingly shown more life on that side of the ball after losing its two best defenders (Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams) at the trade deadline. And Aaron Glenn's D is seriously due for some turnover luck, with one -- ONE! -- takeaway on the season, setting an ignominious NFL record through 11 games. The Jets don't have a single interception. That's about to change, with Gang Green facing an immobile quarterback with diminished arm strength. New York forces TWO turnovers -- dream big! -- to squeak out a low-wattage win at home.

Why Ali picked the Cardinals: Tampa has been in a bad way since the team's Week 9 bye, losing three consecutive games by increasingly ugly margins: 5, 12 and 27 points. And now Baker Mayfield is dealing with a sprained left shoulder, putting his availability for Sunday in doubt. Even if he is able to suit up, though, his injury may limit his ability to scramble and extend plays -- two factors that make him such a threat under center. Of course, No. 6 is as tough as they come, so any restrictions would likely be more by play design (e.g. quick concepts) than his decision-making in the moment. Mayfield's injury could potentially be mitigated by a return to form from the Bucs' defense, but that unit has been unreliable recently. Injuries up front and in the secondary have contributed to Tampa allowing the most TD passes and third-worst EPA per dropback over the past three weeks. Against another opponent and in another stadium, these shortcomings would unquestionably tip the scales to the opposition. But Arizona enters this contest with its own set of problems, having lost eight of nine, including last week's game against the Jags in which the Cardinals finished +4 in the turnover department. Still, I think the Cards are closer to righting their ship than the Bucs right now. At some point, Arizona has to find itself back on the right side of all these one-possession games (2-6). … Why not against a banged-up Tampa team?

Why Dan picked the Jaguars: I'm seeing upset potential here, but not enough to take the swing. The Titans are playing at home for the fourth consecutive game and have been much more competitive while spending the entire month in Nashville. As for the Jaguars, they're on the back end of consecutive road trips and it's not hard to envision them looking ahead to next week's high-stakes matchup with the Colts. Trevor Lawrence has turned the ball over a whopping eight times in his last four games, including four last week, when Jacksonville needed overtime to put away the Cardinals. If those issues persist, the door opens for a Jaguars meltdown, although they're 3-1 over that four-game stretch. It helps that their defense has excelled at taking the ball away and stopping the run -- two areas where Tennessee struggles. I'm counting on that being the difference in a tight one, along with a pass rush that should be able to disrupt rookie Cam Ward, the most-sacked quarterback in the league.

Why Gennaro picked the Seahawks: This has to feel like a cruel joke to Vikings fans. This matchup? In this particular moment? Minnesota just suffered its fifth loss in the last six weeks. J.J. McCarthy comfortably has the lowest completion percentage and worst passer rating of any qualified quarterback -- helping explain why Justin Jefferson is averaging the fewest yards per game of his career -- and now the former No. 10 overall pick is in the concussion protocol, putting undrafted rookie Max Brosmer in line to make his first NFL start. With that as the backdrop, the Vikings have to travel across the country to face the quarterback who guided them to a 14-3 record in 2024. And he's playing even better in 2025, making sweet music with the new It Guy at receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The football gods have a sick sense of humor, alright, especially considering Sam Darnold is flanked by one of the league's best defenses. Seattle's ferocious front makes life hell on opposing QBs, having racked up a league-high 193 pressures, per Next Gen Stats. What can we realistically expect from Minnesota's quarterback in this game? How vindictive is Darnold? These are the kinds of leading questions I ask when I'm sensing a beatdown.

Why Tom picked the Chargers: Oh man. How could I not? One rule of thumb I generally try to abide by here is to not pick teams that struggle to play competitive football. Throw in a decent-to-good opponent, and, well, good night. I don't want to deny the memory of the Raiders' two wins and two one-point losses, but that quartet of games sure look anomalous next to the other seven outings this season, in which Vegas was outscored by a combined 127 points, or 18.1 per game. The Chargers weren't exactly at their most crisp the last time out, getting stomped by the Jaguars, 35-6 in Week 11, but that is the outlier on their slate so far this season. Since then, they've had the bye to rest up and clear the cobwebs. The embattled O-line will have to account for Maxx Crosby, and there's the chance that a change in offensive play-caller could spark something for the Raiders, plus of course I could always get punished for my hubris, but let's not get too cute. Slot Jim Harbaugh's group for win No. 8.

Why Brooke picked the Steelers: Pittsburgh's back is against the wall after Baltimore leapfrogged it last week to claim the top spot in the division. The Steelers are optimistic Aaron Rodgers will return after missing last week with a left wrist injury. Rodgers has been efficient but averaging fewer than 200 pass yards per game, which would be the lowest in a season as a starter. The Steelers have a lot of questions offensively but they could lean on their ground attack for the second straight week, especially with the Bills allowing the third-most rush yards per game (148.9) and second most yards per carry (5.3) this season. After all, Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell nearly ran Pittsburgh to victory last week with Mason Rudolph in at QB. Conversely, the Bills should feel pretty good about facing a Steelers defense that ranks in the bottom five in yards allowed and bottom half of the league in points allowed. What's worrisome is the health of Bills tackles Spencer Brown (shoulder) and Dion Dawkins (concussion). So too is how Josh Allen has fared on the road in 2025.He has scored just seven offensive touchdowns in five road games (21 TDs in six home contests), while Buffalo has averaged nearly 10 fewer points per game on the road (23.2) than at Highmark Stadium (32.5). Plus, the Bills are 2-3 on the road (5-1 at home). The Terrible Towels make Pittsburgh a tough place to play, and that defense could quite easily turn the game on its head if T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith can regularly get into the backfield. I'm not sure I trust either one of these teams at this moment, but I'll take the home team in a close one.

Why Ali picked the Broncos: This one has all the hallmarks of a trap game: Division leader with its sights on the No. 1 seed, riding an eight-game run, fresh off the bye, brimming with confidence after beating its ultimate rival versus a 3-8 squad that's starting its QB2 and hasn't won since the first week of October. The Broncos have absolutely no business losing this game. And yet ... the warning bells are sounding! But, is it possible the clear trap-game signals are actually a reverse trap? Maybe Denver's unmistakable edge on both sides of the ball are just that -- obvious advantages. If that's the case, and I think it is, then this game shouldn't be close. But large margins haven't really been Denver's MO this year: Five of the Broncos' six most recent wins have been by three points or fewer, including three against two-win teams (Raiders, 10-7; Giants, 33-32; Jets, 13-11). So while I'm not falling for the trap-game trap, I do think it's possible Washington keeps this one competitive for all four quarters -- especially if Terry McLaurin is back in uniform while Patrick Surtain II is still in street clothes.

MONDAY, DEC. 1

Why Dan picked the Patriots: The Giants hold the dubious distinction of being the only team eliminated from playoff contention by the end of Week 12. They have every reason to pack it in with an interim head coach and now a new defensive coordinator. They keep on battling through all the losses, though. The G-Men pushed a contender to overtime on the road last week, but they've blown fourth-quarter leads in each of their last three games. Meanwhile, the Patriots have the league's longest active winning streak (nine games) and can't let a favorable home matchup like this slip away if they want to be the AFC’s top seed come January. The loss of Will Campbell undoubtedly hurts, as does the injury to Jared Wilson, so New England's new-look offensive line will be tested by a capable Giants front. The gulf between these teams might not be as gargantuan as their records indicate -- especially if Jaxson Dart returns from a concussion -- but I would be surprised if Mike Vrabel's squad let its guard down after the Bengals gave the Pats a bit of a scare last week.

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