NFL Week 12 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 12 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 20.

THURSDAY, NOV. 20

Why Tom picked the Bills: The answer, basically, is, "Because they have Josh Allen," and we could probably just end the blurb there -- if I hadn't given so much real thought to backing the Texans. Despite being a perennial Super Bowl contender, Buffalo has a tendency to fall on its face every now and then, as we saw in Weeks 6 (a prime-time flop against the Falcons) and 10 (a no-show against the Dolphins). The Thursday time slot makes me nervous, coming just a few days after Buffalo's high-octane battle with the Bucs; so does the road setting, where the Bills laid both of this year's eggs. The factor that I really needed discipline to resist, though, is the Texans' suffocating defense, which is allowing a league-best -0.18 EPA per play, according to Next Gen Stats -- it's potent enough to make up for the middling nature of Houston's offense, even with backup Davis Mills in line to make another start. So why not roll with a Houston upset? Well ... we covered that at the beginning. Allen is a force, and a main reason Buffalo ranks second in explosive-play rate (16.5%) -- exactly the kind of star who can wipe out an opponent's dominant defensive showing in an instant.

SUNDAY, NOV. 23

Why Ali picked the Ravens: Lamar Jackson was notably not himself in last week's win over Cleveland, completing just 56 percent of his passes, with zero touchdowns and two picks for a paltry 47.6 passer rating -- easily his worst mark of the season. Perhaps his ongoing knee issue played a part, or perhaps it was more about his opponent. Or maybe it was both. I'm inclined to believe it was Cleveland. After all, No. 8 has had major problems with the Browns throughout his career: Three of his nine lowest ratings have come against his AFC North rival, including his two worst.

So if I'm willing to write-off Lamar's Week 11 … then the question becomes, how has he previously fared against Aaron Glenn/Steve Wilks-coached defenses? Well, in his most recent five meetings with either coach (all wins), the two-time MVP has thrown for a combined nine touchdowns against two interceptions, with a much more Lamar-like 106.7 mark. And those were all without King Henry by his side. Unless Will McDonald IV and Jermaine Johnson II can successfully fluster the dynamic QB like Myles Garrett & Co. managed last Sunday, and the Jets' second-level defenders avoid taking the bait on run fakes (an area in which they've struggled), I think the Ravens' rushing and play-action attack will consistently and convincingly do damage (even with Lamar not 100 percent). The Jets’ QB change could give their pass game a bit more juice, but I'm not sure New York has the playmakers (beyond Breece Hall) to keep pace with Baltimore.

Why Gennaro picked the Bears: In a showdown between surprising division leaders, Pittsburgh has a question mark under center. At publishing, Aaron Rodgers isn't sure whether he'll be able to play through the left wrist fracture that knocked him out of last week's win over the Bengals. On the plus side, Mason Rudolph is an experienced backup who capably relieved the starter this past Sunday, producing second-half numbers (12-16, 127 yards, 1 TD) that were eerily similar to those Rodgers posted in the first (9-15, 116 yards, 1 TD). With that in mind, I'm not sure Pittsburgh's quarterback -- whoever it ends up being -- is the deciding factor in this game. To me, this matchup revolves around Chicago, with a more mystical question floating around the home team:

Can the Cardiac Bears keep finding ways to win?

After starting off the season at 0-2, Chicago has taken seven of eight. And in five of those victories -- including each in the active three-game win streak -- the Bears prevailed after trailing in the final two minutes of regulation. It's a huge feather in the cap of first-year head coach Ben Johnson. But it's also the kind of unsustainable trend that ultimately regresses to the mean …

Not this week, though! Johnson has had Chicago's run game cooking since the Week 5 bye, while Pittsburgh just had issues with Cincy's low-grade ground attack. And Caleb Williams should be able to exploit the NFL's worst-ranked pass defense in spots. The Bears take care of business at home before embarking on a rugged two-game road trip (at Philadelphia and Green Bay) that could bring them back to Earth real quick.

Why Brooke picked the Patriots: The Bengals enter this game behind the 8-ball. Their last-ranked defense continues to take blows, with CB Cam Taylor-Britt likely to have season-ending Lisfranc surgery. Joe Flacco is coming off his worst game as the team's starter, while Ja'Marr Chase must now serve a one-game suspension for unsportsmanlike conduct. On the plus side, history tells us that we could get a big day from Tee Higgins, who averages just over eight targets, six catches and 100 receiving yards with three total TDs in five career games without Chase. And hey, Joe Burrow was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, meaning he could theoretically return to action on Sunday. Whether it's Burrow or Flacco under center this week, the Bengals are going to have to dig deep offensively, facing the NFL's No. 1 run defense, No. 5 scoring defense and No. 8 total defense. Plus, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson and Stefon Diggs are cooking, and Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte are back at practice. Josh McDaniels' top-10 unit looks poised to keep the momentum going against a defense that has allowed 33.4 points and 418.2 yards per game this season (both last in the NFL). These are two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum right now -- on the field and in terms of vibes.

Why Tom picked the Lions: Because I want to get over .500 in my season-long record of picking Lions games (5-5), and the Giants line up as a decent palate-cleanser following last Sunday's frustrating prime-time loss to Philly. True, New York has the pass-rushing talent to press Detroit's offensive line, which has contributed to the 12th-highest QB pressure-allowed rate (35.5%, per NGS) in the NFL. But the Giants haven't been able to translate that talent into broader defensive success -- on a per-play basis, they're yielding 5.9 yards (fifth-most) and 0.07 EPA (fourth-most), and they're fielding the 29th-ranked scoring defense (27.3 ppg per game). I do respect the possibility that New York will get some productively chaotic quarterbacking on Sunday, whether Jaxson Dart is able to suit up or Jameis Winston gets another turn. And the Lions' inconsistency this season is a concern. Ultimately, though, they have top-five units on both sides of the ball, and I trust Dan Campbell to seize this opportunity to get things lined up for the stretch run.

Why Dan picked the Packers: There have been some frustrating ups and downs for Packers fans this season, but it doesn't compare to the pain the Vikings are experiencing with their quarterback right now. J.J. McCarthy ranks last in the NFL in completion percentage (52.9%) and TD-to-INT ratio (6:8), and he's second-to-last in passing yards per game (168.4). His 35 percent completion rate on third downs is the second-lowest since 2000, per NFL Research. As good a coach as Kevin O'Connell might be, no one can overcome the mistakes McCarthy is making right now, and I'm not expecting a vastly different performance in his introduction to a Micah Parsons-led defense. Now, Green Bay has played down to its competition this season, and Josh Jacobs is day-to-day with a knee injury. If Brian Flores can shake things up for Jordan Love -- the Vikings DC was successful in that effort a year ago -- then the game could be closer than a lot of people expect, but the Packers appear to be the better team.

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: Having made five of the past six Super Bowls -- collecting three Lombardi Trophies in the process -- Kansas City finds itself in completely unfamiliar territory: outside of the current playoff field. Historical data tells us this game could be a crucial turning point, one way or the other. In previous NFL campaigns going back to 1990, teams that started off at 5-6 only made the playoffs 15.4 percent of the time. On the other hand, teams that began the season at 6-5 ultimately hit the postseason at a 43.5 percent rate. So, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Co. need to get right right now. But Kansas City isn't the only team in this matchup with a growing concern. Yes, Indianapolis has been the NFL's most pleasant surprise in 2025, vaulting to the top of the AFC South behind the league's best offense, but everyone's been waiting for the other shoe to drop on Daniel Jones. And in his last two games, Jones has four interceptions, six fumbles (three lost) and 12 sacks taken. Is "Indiana Jones" turning back into "Danny Dimes," the mockable turnover machine who wore out his welcome in New York? I'd say the Colts would be wise to put it all on Jonathan Taylor in this one, but the Chiefs have held three of their last four opponents to 60 rushing yards or fewer, yielding an NFL-low 3.3 yards per carry in that span. The chess match between Shane Steichen and Steve Spagnuolo takes center stage at Arrowhead, and I like the four-time Super Bowl champion to rally his defense in a must-win game.

Why Brooke picked the Seahawks: "Be a goldfish, Sam." It shouldn't be too hard for Darnold to forget last week's four-INT debacle with a struggling Titans outfit up next. This matchup heavily favors the Seahawks in nearly every phase of the game. Seattle's top-three scoring offense vs. Tennessee's bottom-three scoring defense. NFL receiving yards leader Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. a Titans D that's allowing the third-most yards per game to receivers. The league's worst total and scoring offense against a defense that's allowed 17.6 points per game over the last five contests. Cam Ward's 56.4 passer rating when pressured against a defense with the fourth-highest pressure rate despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate. The list goes on. Interim HC Mike McCoy wants more consistency from his squad, but this matchup screams anything but.

Why Brooke picked the Jaguars: This Jaguars season is giving me serious whiplash. The last three games have seen them win in OT over the Raiders, lose to the Texans after blowing a 19-point fourth-quarter lead and trounce a good Chargers team. If we're looking at Liam Coen's offense since the Week 8 bye, it's taken steps in the right direction. It's averaging 31.3 points per game, fourth-most in that span, and has improved in the red zone, on third down and in the run game. That unit now faces a vulnerable Cardinals team that has surrendered 40-plus points in back-to-back games. Arizona's middle-of-the-pack offense will be without wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendectomy) for the second straight game and running back Emari Demercado, though RB Trey Benson could return for his first action since late September. In the end, these are two teams trying to find consistency in all three phases. I believe the Jags will be slightly more consistent, based on how they've played statistically since the bye. That said, things could go sideways if Trevor Lawrence's erratic decision-making rears its ugly head.

Why Gennaro picked the Raiders: As you undoubtedly heard -- from multiple sources, no less -- Shedeur Sanders is making his first NFL start this Sunday. Naturally, it's taking place in Vegas -- you know, the self-titled "Entertainment Capital of the World"? This guy just oozes content, for better or worse. But can he play? Well, he struggled mightily in relief of Dillon Gabriel (concussion) last week, completing just four of his 16 passes for 47 yards (2.9 per attempt) with a bad interception. Cleveland's porous offensive line didn't do Sanders any favors, but neither did the young quarterback's propensity to hold on to the football too long. To be fair, Sanders hadn’t taken any snaps with the first-team offense prior to that appearance, so a full week of practice reps with the 1s could markedly boost chemistry. Unfortunately, Sanders also needs to overcome the devastating history that afflicts one of the most QB-cursed teams in the sport. It's been a generation since a Browns quarterback won his first career start. No, seriously: 30 years. I'm talkin' Eric Zeier back in Week 9 of the 1995 season. Since then, Cleveland quarterbacks are 0-17 in this spot. And with the Browns' battered O-line yielding the league's second-worst pressure rate (42.5%), I'm afraid Sanders will suffer the wrath of Maxx Crosby. But Crosby isn't the only game-wrecker in this matchup. With 11 sacks in his last four games, Myles Garrett is currently on pace to blow past the single-season record of 22.5 shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt. Cleveland's 6-foot-4, 272-pound force of nature has to be licking his chops looking at Las Vegas' line, which just made Dallas' destitute defense look positively ferocious. This feels like an ugly, turnover-filled toss-up. I'll take the home team.

Why Dan picked the Eagles: I need to see this new version of the Cowboys compete with the NFC's elite before I can buy into their chances of a turnaround in 2025. Yes, I liked what Dallas did in Week 11 -- its first game since bolstering a woeful defense at the trade deadline -- but the victory came against a Raiders operation that is in disarray right now. The degree of difficulty will be entirely different this week. Brian Schottenheimer's squad is 0-4-1 against teams that are currently .500 or better, and now it hosts the 8-2 Eagles, who have shut down two of the league's most potent offenses in consecutive weeks. While it might seem like Philadelphia is cruising right now, there is cause for concern, most notably the loss of Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson to injury. The margin for error isn't particularly large for a team that has scored a total of 26 points in its two games since returning from a bye. If Vic Fangio's suffocating defense relents at all, Dak Prescott could find an opening and exploit it. I'm just skeptical that the Cowboys have been transformed on the fly.

Why Ali picked the Saints: Because New Orleans is catching Atlanta at the best possible moment. The Falcons are in total free fall after losing their QB1, WR1 and fifth consecutive contest this past Sunday. Their offensive line is banged up. So is their D-line. Their defense, which allowed the fewest yards per game from Weeks 1-6, ranks 30th in the five weeks since. The vibes, as they say, are not good. (Even if that's not what Kirk Cousins wants to hear.) The Saints, meanwhile, have had some time off to rest and revel in their Week 10 win at Carolina. The epitome of a team that's played better than its record, New Orleans has the veteran leadership to keep the train moving in the right direction, assuming rookie Tyler Shough continues his game-by-game improvement. While I'm siding with the Saints in this one, my confidence comes with a very big caveat -- I have been wrong about the Falcons a lot this season (2-8 overall). It's entirely possible that Bijan Robinson takes over this one. The dude has destroyed the Saints in his young career, averaging a staggering 118 yards from scrimmage over four matchups. That's the most by any player who's faced the Saints at least four times in the past 20 seasons. So, I won't blame you if you fade me on this one … I probably would.

Why Tom picked the Rams: The Bucs are fun in a cheeky way, in that we want to see what they can possibly get away with each week. Win a back-and-forth affair despite having one healthy starter at receiver? Make a furious late comeback? Blitz their opponent into submission? The Rams, on the other hand, are fun in a most dominant team in football way, at least lately, which means they probably won't have to worry about any of that tomfoolery. Los Angeles ranks third in EPA allowed per play (-0.15) -- but unlike the other top-five teams in that category (the Texans, Broncos, Browns and Seahawks), the Rams are also in the top 10 in EPA gained per play on offense (0.07). Sean McVay, of course, was an early beneficiary of Baker Mayfield's career turnaround, back when the QB whipped up some magic for the Rams late in a lost 2022 season. The fact that McVay's team is now so far away from needing that kind of miracle-working is why I think these Rams will be able to withstand the Bucs, who are still less than whole and still looking for a second signature win to add to their Week 5 triumph over Seattle.

MONDAY, NOV. 24

Why Dan picked the 49ers: Teams that have allowed the Panthers to hang around deep into games have paid the price this season. Just ask the Packers (or Falcons). I'm expecting another inspired effort from a 49ers squad that might have found a new energy with the return of Brock Purdy, though. With its QB1 finally back in the fold, San Francisco dropped 41 points in a throttling of the Cardinals last week, the team's most in a single game since the 2023 season. The 49ers have not won consecutive games since mid-September, but I don't see Kyle Shanahan allowing his crew to let its guard down now, not with so much at stake for two teams in playoff contention. After all, the Panthers have, by far, the worst point differential of any team with a record of .500 or better (-42). Their struggles to convert on third downs (37%, 24th) will come back to bite them, even against a defense that is a shadow of its former self without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.

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