A new season is upon us, and another year of QB Index is ready for launch.
In the interest of keeping it brief, I'll explain this simply: We're officially at the starting point for a season-long, weekly ranking of quarterbacks. This year, I'm applying a new twist by grouping signal-callers into tiers with the reminder that these are fluid.
Let's check in with where I see all 32 starting quarterbacks at the start of the 2025 NFL season.
TIER 1
- Who is the best quarterback in the NFL? When I sit back and ponder that question, I always land on Patrick Mahomes. Sure, you can cite his waning statistical output or Kansas City's blowout loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX in your fiery argument against his ranking, but I'm not listening. Over the last seven seasons, Mahomes has established himself as the standard for quarterback play in the NFL and the Chiefs have become an international brand largely because of it. Yes, he wasn't as prolific in 2024; that doesn't change the fact he's the best in the game.
- With all due respect to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson should have won his third NFL MVP last season. He outperformed his 2023 season -- his second MVP-winning campaign -- in every notable statistical category. Jackson is one of one and the linchpin of the NFL's most prolific offense, a unit that returns 10 starters in 2025. He's answered the doubters who didn't believe in his passing abilities and should be considered an MVP contender annually until proven otherwise.
- A rare specimen and the reigning MVP, Allen finds himself among elite company. Like Jackson, all that's left for him to achieve is to finally beat the Chiefs in the playoffs and win a Super Bowl. He's the heartbeat of Buffalo, where he's all but the patron saint of football by now. Unless the Bills blow a tire on their high-speed pursuit of a Lombardi Trophy, Allen will call the top QB tier his home once again in 2025.
- Three seasons have passed since Joe Burrow's Bengals completed a magical run to the Super Bowl. It's been two seasons since they've qualified for the postseason. Obviously, Burrow hasn't been the problem in Cincinnati, and there's reason to believe his best football is ahead of him. Early in training camp, Burrow told reporters he's throwing the ball better than he has in years, which has to be a frightening concept for opposing defenses to consider. He has his full stable of weapons available, contract drama is behind them and there's plenty of reason to believe he'll light up the scoreboard this year. Don't be surprised if he plays musical chairs with the signal-callers ranked ahead of him on this list in 2025.
- It might seem preposterous to rank a second-year player in Tier 1, but I'm doing so with confidence and a season's worth of proof to back it. Jayden Daniels powered a remarkable turnaround in Washington last season, showing off the arm and running talents that helped him win the Heisman Trophy in 2023. He'll be expected to build on that fantastic debut in 2025. Hopefully, he doesn't experience the same struggles C.J. Stroud endured in his second season.
TIER 2
- Justin Herbert has delivered some magnificent seasons over the course of his career, but his production has dipped in the last two and I cannot justify placing him in the elite tier, even if he has elite talent.
- Matthew Stafford's health hurdles have been a frequent storyline in recent years, and his back issue (coupled with his age) has me feeling concerned entering 2025, although Sean McVay expects him to play in Week 1. These worries could prove to be overblown, but I'm not willing to ignore them right now.
- Baker Mayfield has compiled two fantastic campaigns since signing with the Bucs and could easily rise a few spots on this list with a strong string of outings. C.J. Stroud could do the same if he returns to his rookie season level of performance. His ability to do so depends heavily on Houston's remade offensive line (and how Stroud fits with new offensive coordinator Nick Caley).
- Jared Goff spent the 2024 season at a well-deserved higher spot in my rankings, but I'm bracing for a dip in production now that Ben Johnson has left for the Chicago sideline.
- Jalen Hurts' ranking will send a fresh batch of angry Eagles fans to my DMs. He can climb this list if Philly avoids the tumult that defined its passing game for a decent chunk of the 2024 season.
- Geno Smith is going to be a very fun watch as he spends half of his 2025 season playing indoors at Allegiant Stadium. I expect a lot of movement from the QBs in Tier 2 this season.
TIER 3
- Tier 3 is my "prove it" tier entering 2025.
- Dak Prescott was the MVP runner-up in 2023, missed half of last season due to a hamstring injury and still has plenty of doubters. I might be a bit of a Dak apologist, but I'll allow the critics to demand he prove them wrong.
- Brock Purdy's ranking will probably irritate some 49ers fans, but I can't overlook that he's entering 2025 with a fresh batch of adversity due to the injuries plaguing San Francisco's receiving corps. Last season I watched Purdy struggle to overcome similar challenges. He can prove me wrong by not allowing those issues to slow him down out of the gate in 2025.
- Jordan Love is coming off a fairly tumultuous season that was affected by injury, but he's clearly gifted enough to power the Packers to greatness. Like Purdy, he's also missing a top receiver to start the year.
- This is a pivotal year for Kyler Murray, who needs to prove to the Cardinals that he's worthy of their commitment long-term.
- Bryce Young needs to build on what was an incredibly promising finish to his challenging second season. And lastly, both Sam Darnold and Bo Nix need to prove that 2024 wasn't a fluke.
TIER 4
- Yes, this is a strange collection of quarterbacks. I like to think of it as the fork-in-the-road tier.
- It seems like Tua Tagovailoa's health will be a persistent question for the remainder of his career. But what's arguably more important in 2025 is whether he, coach Mike McDaniel and the receiving corps (namely, Tyreek Hill) can get back on the same page after appearing to fall out of sync last season. The answer to that question will drive his ranking this season and shape his reputation going forward.
- Aaron Rodgers is attempting to embark on a victory lap season with a team that hopes he can elevate them beyond the frustratingly familiar first-round playoff exit.
- Like Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence needs to prove he can make it through a full season -- and truly needs to get back on track as a passer many thought was a generational talent when he entered the NFL.
TIER 5
- Many pundits might say Drake Maye is ranked too low here, and I wouldn't entirely disagree. We know he has the tools. I'd rather begin him here for the season, though, and let him climb instead of inflating his standing before we see how he actually benefits from an upgraded surrounding cast -- and how he meshes with OC Josh McDaniels. If all goes well, Maye will rise up these rankings.
- The same is true for Caleb Williams, who was placed in a disadvantageous situation as a rookie, asked to perform at the NFL level behind an inconsistent line in an offense that lacked creativity and featured three different coordinators in a single season. Stability should help both of these obviously talented quarterbacks blossom, starting with the 2025 season.
TIER 6
- Hello, graybeards! Joe Flacco won the top gig in Cleveland by default and will be asked to keep the Browns' offense afloat while fans continue to keep their sights set on the rookies listed behind him on the depth chart. It is truly a thankless job. Still, it's better than no job at all.
- As for Russell Wilson, I'll just say it now before the season begins: He is going to lose his job to Jaxson Dart this season. But there's no telling when exactly the switch occurs. If it doesn't, I'll happily admit I was wrong, but expect a different name to appear in the Giants' slot here at some point.
TIER 7
- We're now in unproven territory. To my eyes, Atlanta waited too long to promote Michael Penix Jr. to starter but has since fully committed to the 2024 first-round pick, giving him the keys and the runway of a full season as their QB1. We know he has a live arm, but we don't know how he'll handle the rigors of the job over 18 weeks.
- We know even less about Cam Ward, the first overall pick this year, who arrives with the expectation he'll solve a situation that has been in flux in Tennessee since the 2022 season.
- J.J. McCarthy handled preseason duties well enough for his coach to express plenty of confidence in him, though he is essentially a rookie armed with a year of observation experience. There's plenty to learn -- and plenty of room for movement up (and down) these rankings.
TIER 8
- I believe it was Marshall Mathers who once asked rhetorically: If you had one shot or one opportunity to seize everything you ever wanted, in one moment, would you capture it? Or just let it slip? I cannot confirm whether Justin Fields', Daniel Jones' or Spencer Rattler's palms are sweaty, if their knees are weak or if their arms are heavy, but I can undoubtedly state they must capitalize on the opportunities in front of them.
- Each is facing perhaps his last chance to establish himself in an NFL starting gig, especially Fields and Jones. All three need to grab on with the firmest of grips.
