Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 12 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, schemes and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this year's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to focus on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Cynthia's simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games "played." Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for AFC teams in the 2025 campaign, ordered from most to least victories, with playoff berths noted. Click here for the NFC rundown.
NOTE: All FanDuel over/under listings are current as of Noon ET on Monday, Sept. 1.
- Ceiling: 13.1
- Floor: 10.0
- FanDuel over/under: 12.5
Week 1's Sunday Night Football matchup with the Ravens in Buffalo could very well wind up deciding playoff seeding by the end of the season. I have the Bills projected to win, but not with an overwhelming amount of confidence -- they are victorious in just 52.4 percent of simulations.
- Ceiling: 13.1
- Floor: 9.8
- FanDuel over/under: 11.5
Bet you didn't expect me to drop a Roquan Smith stat here, but it helps explain why the league's top rushing team also excels at shutting down opponents on the ground. In 2024, the linebacker recorded a tackle that resulted in a negative play for the opposing offense on 18.5 percent of his run-defense snaps -- the highest rate among defenders with at least 200 such snaps, per Next Gen Stats. He also had 57 run stops, fifth-most in the NFL.
- Ceiling: 13.4
- Floor: 9.5
- FanDuel over/under: 11.5
Even with Rashee Rice suspended to start the season, I think we'll see Patrick Mahomes bounce back near the top five of the passing leaderboards; he ranks in the top five in passing TDs in just over 35 percent of simulations. (For context, Joe Burrow has the highest odds to be in the top five, doing so in 57 percent of simulations.) Mahomes is my QB6 in fantasy (and Travis Kelce is my TE6).
- Ceiling: 12.2
- Floor: 7.6
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Denver might not have the clear-cut best defense in the AFC going into this season, but it's hard to argue that it's not at least in the top two. It's pretty wild to add a first-round talent like Jahdae Barron -- who allowed zero touchdowns in coverage last season at Texas -- to a secondary that already features reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II.
- Ceiling: 9.9
- Floor: 6.0
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Here's how special Joe Burrow is: When I swap in a QB who is merely "above average" for the Bengals and hold all other factors constant -- including defense and offensive-line play, which, as a very conservative modeler, I weigh heavily -- Cincinnati ends up nowhere near the playoff hunt.
- Ceiling: 10.9
- Floor: 8.2
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
I only have two words to convey what is limiting the Texans' upside here: offensive line. DeMeco Ryans' defense, meanwhile, is in contention for the NFL's best unit, which drives Houston's high floor.
- Ceiling: 10.4
- Floor: 6.8
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Coming off a second consecutive 4-13 season, the Patriots made the right investments -- including at the head coach position, where Mike Vrabel takes over -- to change their situation quickly. One constant that remains (in a good way): cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who had a great follow-up to his injury-abbreviated rookie campaign, allowing just 46 of 86 targets to be completed as the nearest defender in coverage, per Next Gen Stats. His completion percentage allowed of 53.5 ranked as the third-lowest mark among the 32 players who logged 75 or more targets as the nearest defender in coverage. Now, if Drake Maye can take a second-year leap like that ...
- Ceiling: 11.6
- Floor: 7.3
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
If you were high on Ladd McConkey's fantasy prospects in May, don't let the August return of veteran receiver Keenan Allen to his former team cool you off on the second-year pro. I think Allen's addition is actually good for McConkey's value, as he'll draw coverages away from McConkey and help him work in space more.
- Ceiling: 9.7
- Floor: 6.6
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Do I like forecasting the first losing season for the Steelers since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007? Absolutely not. But do I like Patrick Queen? Absolutely. The linebacker is one of three players who posted 100-plus tackles, five-plus TFLs and five-plus passes defensed in each of the last three seasons. He and the rest of the defense keep Pittsburgh from falling too far off last year's 10-win pace.
- Ceiling: 8.9
- Floor: 5.8
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
I love all the love for Travis Hunter; he's such a fun player whom I can't wait to watch. But we can't forget to also give Brian Thomas Jr. his flowers for leading all rookies in receiving yards (1,282) and receiving touchdowns (10) in 2024. In addition to earning Pro Bowl honors, Thomas became the fourth rookie with at least 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in the Super Bowl era. You know who else is in this club? Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr. and Randy Moss.
- Ceiling: 9.0
- Floor: 5.5
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Jonathan Taylor earned 31 rushes of 10-plus yards last season, which was the eighth-most in the league. He's well-positioned to at least match that total this year. Should the run game help give Daniel Jones and the passing offense enough of a boost, this team could find its way into the playoffs.
- Ceiling: 8.7
- Floor: 6.2
- FanDuel over/under: 6.5
This is one of the offenses I'm most eager to track. I think there are going to be tons of fantasy gems on it, even beyond Brock Bowers (my TE1) and Ashton Jeanty (my RB8). In fact, I can already see a world where Geno Smith's favorite deep target -- whomever that ends up being -- becomes someone I lean on in fantasy.
- Ceiling: 8.0
- Floor: 5.3
- FanDuel over/under: 6.5
It remains to be seen if Tanner Engstrand and Justin Fields can get the Jets' offense moving in the right direction, but new head coach Aaron Glenn's defense has plenty going for it, starting with tackle Quinnen Williams, who generated pressure on 11.2 percent of his pass rushes on first and second down last season. That was the fifth-highest rate among defensive tackles with at least 100 pass rushes, per NGS, marking the second season in a row in which Williams finished in the top five in early-down pressure rate.
- Ceiling: 8.8
- Floor: 5.1
- FanDuel over/under: 5.5
My projections for Cam Ward are basically a bright arrow pointing up and to the right for this season, driven in part by his accuracy in college (67.2% completion rate last season), which is a great indicator of future success. I hope those projections come to pass -- if they do, the No. 1 overall pick will prove he's the real deal for the Titans.
- Ceiling: 9.3
- Floor: 5.2
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Yikes. This projected win total surprised even me, and I wrote my models. The good news is, Tua Tagovailoa and the offensive scheme are well-suited to weather any bumps that come as the offensive line transitions to its post-Terron Armstead reality, given how quickly Tua gets the ball out (his 2.42-second average time to throw ranked as the fastest in the NFL in 2024). We should expect to see more this season from Tyreek Hill, especially on plays where he is moving at the time the ball is snapped; since joining the Dolphins in 2022, he's racked up 797 yards on such plays, the most in the NFL in that span.
The bad news is, outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick, there is a lot of uncertainty factoring into their projection from the secondary. Miami, faced with serious attrition in this position group, has only just added players (like Rasul Douglas) who figure to log a heavy workload. It's hard to live like that in the AFC.
- Ceiling: 6.9
- Floor: 4.7
- FanDuel over/under: 5.5
The Browns might miss the playoffs for a second straight year, but don't forget about Jerry Jeudy in your fantasy leagues. Last season, from Weeks 11 through 18, he led the league with 811 receiving yards. He finished the campaign with 90 total receptions for 1,229 yards and four touchdowns.
