Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 12 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, schemes and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this year's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season to produce a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to focus on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Cynthia's simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games "played." Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for NFC teams in the 2025 campaign, ordered from most to least victories, with playoff berths noted. Click here for the AFC rundown.
NOTE: All FanDuel over/under listings are current as of Noon ET on Monday, Sept. 1.
- Ceiling: 13.0
- Floor: 10.4
- FanDuel over/under: 11.5
Eagles fans: Is it strange to be thanking the Cowboys? The Micah Parsons trade generated a win-total bump for you guys (and the Commanders).
- Ceiling: 13.1
- Floor: 8.9
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
You’ll notice that Washington's ceiling is slightly higher than the Eagles', so my model sees a world in which the NFC East has a new champion for the 21st consecutive season. One reason my model likes the Commanders? It loves the Laremy Tunsil addition. Last season, the five-time Pro Bowler recorded an 8.3 percent pressure rate, which was tied for the 12th-lowest among left tackles with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps, per Next Gen Stats.
- Ceiling: 12.8
- Floor: 8.9
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Look at the margin between the Lions and Packers -- and the whole NFC North, for that matter. If the Lions can start the season strong, which includes a trip to Lambeau in Week 1, they can track toward their ceiling. By the way, Detroit's pass rush is getting a pretty big boost, too, in the form of a healthy Aidan Hutchinson, who led the team with 7.5 sacks in 2024 despite being limited to just five games because of a season-ending leg injury. That's the fewest games played by a team's sack leader since at least 1982 (excluding replacement players). The Lions' season very well could come down to O-line play; replacing Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow (retired) won't be easy.
- Ceiling: 12.7
- Floor: 9.2
- FanDuel over/under: 10.5
I was already a fan of the adjustments Jeff Hafley implemented in his first year as the Packers' defensive coordinator in 2024. Now, he has Micah Parsons. Yikes. Having made the Pro Bowl in each of his first four seasons, Parsons has a résumé that speaks for itself. Still, here are a few Next Gen numbers that further contextualize his game-changing abilities: Parsons generated a league-high 19.1 percent pressure rate in 2024 (min. 150 pass rushes) and has accumulated a league-best 335 total pressures since entering the league in 2021.
- Ceiling: 11.5
- Floor: 8.3
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Bucky Irving made a splash as a rookie and is well-positioned to keep the momentum going in 2025, as left tackle Tristan Wirfs' absence will likely lead Tampa to turn toward the ground game in the early going, in the hopes that Irving will provide the kind of chunk yardage he earned last season. In 2024, Irving averaged 5.5 yards per carry on rushes outside the tackles (fifth-most among backs, per NGS) and 5.3 yards per carry on rushes inside the tackles (second-most).
- Ceiling: 12.9
- Floor: 8.7
- FanDuel over/under: 10.5
If the Niners were healthier, their projected win total would be higher -- it’s kind of that simple. There is one element they can lean on right now: George Kittle is good to go. That's huge, given that NGS shows he had 551 yards after the catch last season, trailing only Brock Bowers (611) among tight ends.
- Ceiling: 12.9
- Floor: 6.2
- FanDuel over/under: 9.5
Is Matthew Stafford the most underrated former No. 1 overall draft pick ever? I could make that argument. I also worry that this preseason back injury is going to impact his production, which is part of what drives the gigantic 6.7-game spread between the Rams' floor and their ceiling.
- Ceiling: 12.0
- Floor: 7.0
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Like the Rams, the Vikings have a pretty massive difference (five games) between their ceiling and their floor. It's not hard to explain why: The variance in outcomes for J.J. McCarthy's first season as an NFL starter already introduced risk, and that was true before a lack of receiver depth led Minnesota to add Adam Thielen last week, introducing the new wrinkle of establishing chemistry between the QB and WR. There's also the fact that margins are tight in the NFC North divisional games. Then again, you can't ask for a better lifeline than Justin Jefferson.
- Ceiling: 11.1
- Floor: 7.5
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
This team could easily wind up in the playoffs. The defense is perhaps feistier than some people think, and the centerpiece of the secondary, Budda Baker, had 164 tackles in 2024 -- the most by a safety since Victor Green had 165 with the Jets in 1996.
- Ceiling: 11.0
- Floor: 7.4
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
We talk a lot about this team’s offense, and understandably so, given all the playmakers. But did you know that Jessie Bates III had four interceptions last season, tied for sixth-most among safeties. Bates has posted six seasons with at least three interceptions since he was drafted in 2018, tied for the most such campaigns in the NFL during that span.
- Ceiling: 11.4
- Floor: 7.4
- FanDuel over/under: 8.5
Last season, Leonard Williams generated 50 total pressures -- the fourth-most among defensive tackles, per NGS. He also turned 11 of those pressures into sacks. And his 2.5 percent sack rate was second-highest among defensive tackles with at least 110 pass rushes, trailing only Dexter Lawrence's lofty figure of 2.9 percent.
- Ceiling: 11.1
- Floor: 6.9
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
The Bears invested heavily in their interior O-line this offseason, and Ben Johnson can scheme with the best of them. However, the pass-rush potential in Chicago's division alone necessitates getting the tackles right, as well. This team likely goes as second-year QB Caleb Williams goes, and the uncertainty there leads to a pretty significant difference between the ceiling and the floor.
- Ceiling: 8.0
- Floor: 4.9
- FanDuel over/under: 6.5
With Adam Thielen returning to the Vikings, don’t overlook Xavier Legette as depth for your fantasy receiving corps. Of course, rookie Tetairoa McMillan will get plenty of volume. Still, I think people are sleeping on Legette a bit.
- Ceiling: 7.9
- Floor: 4.0
- FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Not sure if you heard, but the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons to the Packers. I think DT Kenny Clark, who was part of the return package from Green Bay, is a valuable asset, but I was very leery of Dallas’ banged-up secondary even before the franchise parted ways with Parsons.
One positive note: CeeDee Lamb had 101 receptions for 1,194 receiving yards in 2024, marking his third consecutive season with triple-digit catches -- and he forecasts to do it again this season.
- Ceiling: 8.0
- Floor: 4.0
- FanDuel over/under: 5.5
This defensive front is going to be fun to watch! Dexter Lawrence was double-teamed on 63.8 percent of his pass-rush snaps in 2024, which was the highest rate of any player with 200-plus pass rushes since at least 2018. Don't see that happening again in 2025 -- not with Abdul Carter now roaming off the edge. The Giants have an uphill climb in terms of their top-ranked strength of schedule, but this team forecasts to be much more competitive than its final record might indicate.
- Ceiling: 6.5
- Floor: 4.2
- FanDuel over/under: 4.5
Fun fact: Tyler Shough threw the fastest football of the draft-eligible QBs during college last season, per my computer vision. Spencer Rattler will begin the 2025 campaign as New Orleans' starting quarterback. You'd assume Shough will get some burn as the season progresses. If and when he does, expect more than a few deep tries.
