Hope springs eternal in the NFL offseason.
Hope that summer beginnings blossom into autumnal success. Hope that new faces author lasting memories. Hope that the downtrodden can rise from the gutter to the playoff prairie.
The 2024 campaign was an anomaly. For the first time since 2019 and only the third time since realignment in 2003, no team went from worst to first in its division. It's remarkable that, in the past 22 seasons, only three didn't include a club completely flipping its division's fate. In fact, since 2003, there have been double that amount of years that have seen two clubs go from worst to first in their divisions in the same season. Two franchises -- 2017 Philadelphia Eagles and 2009 New Orleans Saints -- went from division losers to Super Bowl champs in a single season.
Parity is the way -- as it's been since Bert Bell was crafting the schedule.
This is why fans always hold on to hope, even in the face of dismal circumstances.
With NFL training camps set to kick off in earnest next week, let's take a look at the teams with the best shot of getting the worst-to-first theme back on schedule after last year's hiccup.
San Francisco underwent a massive reboot this offseason after years of shelling out big bucks. From the Deebo Samuel trade to losing valuable offensive linemen to seeing key contributors like Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga depart on defense, the losses were substantial on both sides of the ball. Even with the changes, let's not pretend the roster is devoid of talent. Trent Williams remains the premier left tackle. George Kittle is among the most dynamic tight ends in the NFL. Brock Purdy got paid and runs the offense with aplomb. Nick Bosa is a menace. Fred Warner is Fred Warner. Christian McCaffrey is back after an injury-plagued season. When healthy, Brandon Aiyuk gets open. Ricky Pearsall flashed burgeoning potential. Jauan Jennings remains underrated. The Niners added young talent on defense in the draft. Another significant reason to expect a swift turnaround: Kyle Shanahan didn't just forget how to coach. The 2024 season felt akin to 2020, when QB injuries derailed that year. The following season, San Francisco bounced back with a 10-win campaign and went to the NFC Championship Game. Robert Saleh's return to the Bay Area is another reason to believe the turnaround will be expeditious. He might have crashed and burned with the Jets, but the man can coach a defense. I'd be confident putting those young defenders in his hands. Additionally, the Niners have an advantageous schedule, boasting a league-low SOS of .415 entering the season. The NFC West is no picnic, but nary a soul would be stunned if Shanahan's crew leaps from the basement to the penthouse.
The story writes itself: Former Patriots Super Bowl champion returns to Foxborough to clean up a mess that's lingered from the dismantling of a dynasty he helped build, and immediately turns the ship back around. Mike Vrabel got more from less during his run in Tennessee, providing confidence that he can coax winning play from a crew that won eight games combined over the past two years. If Drake Maye breaks out in Year 2, it will make Vrabel's reclamation project that much easier. The young signal-caller flashed glimpses of his upside last season but couldn't consistently put it together in a dreary situation. Questions along the line and at wide receiver remain, but Maye boasts the talent to overcome them under the new coaching staff, which includes Josh McDaniels' return to New England. The Pats threw money around this offseason, paying big bucks to upgrade the defense with DT Milton Williams, CB Carlton Davis III, LB Robert Spillane and OLB Harold Landry III. After New England won 11 consecutive division titles, the Bills have taken charge and run away with five straight crowns. A fourth-place schedule, an infusion of talent, a greenhorn quarterback making the leap, and a savvy, no-nonsense coach to lead the comeback give the Pats a shot to knock Buffalo off the divisional throne.
Call it the "Offseason of Caleb Williams." The Bears did everything they could to buffer their former No. 1 overall pick after a roller-coaster rookie season. Hire an offensive-guru head coach? Check. Completely overhaul an offensive line that, if everyone stays healthy, could go from a liability to an asset? Check. Bring in young playmakers to grow alongside the QB? Check. Add a wily veteran backup who's been through the fire and can be a player-coach in the QB room? Check. The optimism for Williams entering Year 2 is rightfully palpable. The negatives might stand out from last season, but he still showed enough development and big-play ability despite awful surroundings -- porous O-line, poor coaching staff -- to believe he could catapult Chicago into the forefront of the division. Aside from adding proven veterans to the offensive lines, the Bears gave Ben Johnson toys to play with that should fit his scheme perfectly and aid the QB. Luther Burden III and Olamide Zaccheaus bring versatility to Chicago's receiving corps, joining Rome Odunze and DJ Moore. Colston Loveland provides a move TE who can bust defenses over the middle and down the seam. The most significant question mark on offense is the backfield, where D'Andre Swift sits as RB1. Will better blocking help him get back on track after a down first season in Chicago? The defensive additions of Dayo Odeyingbo, Grady Jarrett and second-rounder Shemar Turner provide pop alongside Montez Sweat. The darlings of the offseason wouldn't surprise anyone by climbing out of the NFC North cellar. The only thing keeping them from being higher on this list is the difficulty of the division.
When I started this exercise, I didn't expect the Titans to be anywhere near this high up. Playing in the AFC South has its benefits. Like Houston two years ago, Tennessee could take advantage of a division littered with question marks. Cam Ward becoming the 2025 version of C.J. Stroud or Jayden Daniels could do it. The Titans buffered the young passer with veterans. Finally shoring up the worst offensive line in football was vital. I have concerns about Dan Moore Jr. and an aging Kevin Zeitler over the course of a full season, but they're worlds better than some of the guys Tennessee employed last year. The Calvin Ridley-Tyler Lockett pairing gives Ward two receivers who know how to get open and help a young QB. The Titans' defense, however, has significant question marks, particularly on the edge. If L'Jarius Sneed can't stay healthy again, toss in corner as a question mark, as well. Brian Callahan's club struggled alongside its first-year coach in 2024, but let's not forget the Titans were in a slew of games where the quarterbacks bungled the end, losing six one-score tilts. If Ward can help flip those close Ls into Ws, Tennessee has a shot at turning things around in a division no club has put the clamps on.
I like what the Raiders have done this offseason. Snagging Geno Smith offers at least a bridge to the future where none previously existed. The QB has proven he can lead an offense and make plays even when under pressure. He's not the perfect passer, but he can win games. The addition of running back Ashton Jeanty provides a weapon to lean on. The pass-catching group is thin, but Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers offer go-to playmakers. If Christian Wilkins returns healthy, he and Maxx Crosby make a dangerous front duo. However, there are significant questions in the secondary, particularly at corner, where third-rounder Darien Porter could be asked to start from the jump. Pete Carroll certainly brings stability and a positivity that was missing in previous regimes. However, it's still a shallow roster with questions. Couple that with playing in the rugged AFC West, and it's enough to keep the optimism tempered about Vegas going from fourth to first.
There are aspects of this Saints squad to like. If Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed can stay on the field together, they offer intriguing upside. Alvin Kamara remains a slippery gasher. And perhaps the offensive line could finally hit the mark with the addition of yet another first-rounder, Kelvin Banks Jr., and Trevor Penning moving inside. At the very least, first-year head coach Kellen Moore appears to have a better grasp of how to help his players succeed than the previous administration. However, with all due respect to veteran stalwarts Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu and Cameron Jordan, there are still huge question marks on defense, including from a pressure perspective. Then we have the quarterback situation. If, as suspected since Friday of the 2025 NFL Draft, second-round pick Tyler Shough is the penciled-in starter over Spencer Rattler, the rookie missing the opening of camp due to his contract situation could be disastrous for a player entering with plenty of question marks already. Shough is one of many second-rounders still unsigned. The organization might not want to bow to the fully guaranteed deal, but not doing so could endanger the plans before we even get to see what Moore had in store. The NFC South is attainable. The Bucs are breaking in yet another OC and likely missing star OT Tristan Wirfs to open the season. The Falcons are the Falcons. The Panthers are on an upward trajectory but still have holes, particularly on defense. The Saints could climb the ladder, but this roster feels like it's a year away.
Cleveland is a club built for yesteryear. The defense could be nasty if the back end holds up. First-round defensive tackle Mason Graham should be ideal for Jim Schwartz's scheme and can take advantage of the attention Myles Garrett attracts. But how many one-score games can they win? The quarterback situation right now is a messy quartet of question marks, from Joe Flacco's attempt to stave off Father Time to Kenny Pickett trying to reclaim his career to two mid-round rookies (Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders) who might not be ready to start in the NFL. Quinshon Judkins' recent arrest threw more cold water on the offense, as he and fourth-rounder Dylan Sampson offered an interesting ground-game appeal. Kevin Stefanski taking the reins back on offense is a positive, and returning to a ground-and-pound approach makes sense. With Cleveland’s intent to play stiff defense and keep games low-scoring, it feels like a club constructed for a different generation of play. I can't get behind a team with such QB questions outplaying the likes of Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow -- or even a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers -- over 17 games.
There are certainly aspects of the Big Blue revamp to like. New York boasts a potential game-wrecking defensive front with No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter joining Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence. Receiver Malik Nabers is a stud and could be even more productive in his second season with a stable QB situation. There is little doubt that the Giants upgraded the signal-caller room with the additions of Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and first-rounder Jaxson Dart. (Of course, compared to what they employed last year, that isn't saying much.) I don't think the Giants are three-win bad. However, Wilson hasn't proven lately he's a game-altering QB. He's been inconsistent and panicky in the pocket. The ever-present questions along New York's offensive line won't do him any favors. Dart is a wild card. With a coaching staff squarely under pressure to produce positive results, the rookie could be forced into action earlier than planned. Even if we can buy that the G-Men are better in 2025, expecting them to completely leap over the Super Bowl champs, the Jayden Daniels-led Commanders and a Cowboys club getting Dak Prescott back is a nonstarter.
