Since Adrian Peterson received MVP honors in 2012, the past 12 winners of the Associated Press award have been quarterbacks. QBs have dominated the accolade since its inception in 1957, earning 49 nods in the past 68 years -- and the disparity has been even more slanted toward the position since the turn of the millennium.
But the chances for non-quarterbacks to win the award arguably have improved in recent years. MVP voting changed prior to the 2022 season, with voters ranking their top five choices in order. This tiered voting system has given us deeper and more diverse, nuanced sets of results each year since.
While it's true that the only non-QB runners-up over the past 12 years (Todd Gurley in 2017, J.J. Watt in 2014) came prior to the voting changes, the past three years have seen 10 non-quarterbacks make the top 10: Saquon Barkley, Ja'Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill (twice), Myles Garrett, Justin Jefferson, Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons, A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry.
Odds are, the 2025 league MVP will be a quarterback. That's reflected in our team-by-team nominees for the award, with 22 of the 32 players listed being signal-callers. They're the overwhelming favorites in a lot of cases. But don't forget about the other positions; I certainly tried not to, even while keeping reality between the crosshairs.
One of these years, we'll even have our first defensive MVP since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, but we might not be quite ready for that again as a football-watching nation.
He’s won the league’s MVP award twice already and finished second in 2024 voting to the Bills’ Josh Allen. Some argued Jackson was deserving of his third such award last year. Whatever your stance, Lamar is the clear and obvious choice here. And turning 29 years old late in this coming season, he’s now entering the phase of his career where most quarterbacks are at their relative peak. We can only imagine how much better Jackson can get, and there really isn’t another logical MVP choice in Baltimore.
Like Lamar Jackson in Baltimore: As Allen goes, so go the Bills. Buffalo slashed salary and took weapons away from Allen last offseason, and he responded with one of his cleanest campaigns to date, winning his first MVP award and leading the Bills to the AFC Championship Game. Yes, Buffalo suffered another heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs, but Allen was hardly to blame. The Bills signed him to a massive contract extension and likely understand that if they’re going to end the franchise’s Super Bowl drought in this era, it’s going to come riding the shoulders of Allen.
The Bengals have some non-QB MVP candidates in WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, along with pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. The case against Hendrickson right now is his current contract impasse, but it’s hard for the NFL's reigning sack king to steal the offensive thunder completely. As for the receivers, well, it's difficult to imagine either trumping Burrow as an MVP candidate unless the quarterback gets hurt again -- but I don't even want to even put that possibility out there. Burrow authored a spectacular season in 2024, playing all 17 games and winning Comeback Player of the Year, and the Bengals could only muster a 9-8 record, missing the playoffs. It’s very hard to make a case for major improvement and contention in Cincinnati without Burrow being able to pull off more magic.
This isn’t that big a stretch. I named Garrett as the Browns' MVP candidate last summer, and he provided another brilliant season that saw him finish third in Defensive Player of the Year voting. The reality is that he's the best player on a rebuilding Cleveland team that once again faces quarterback uncertainty. The only defensive players to win the league’s MVP award were Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986), each occurring many generations ago on division-winning teams. But if you’re going to back one Browns player to make a run at it, Garrett is almost certainly your best option.
A year ago, I picked Patrick Surtain II for this piece, and he was named the league’s Defensive Player of the Year. Surtain was tremendous, and the Broncos’ defense -- already a top-five unit last season -- arguably could be better in 2025. But for Denver to reach a new plateau, it will take Nix building on what he accomplished in an impressive rookie season, which helped lead the franchise back to the playoffs. Broncos LT Garett Bolles called Nix a “freak of nature” following his first year, and new TE Evan Engram said Nix has “everything that it takes to be great” in the NFL. The quarterback himself believes his understanding of Sean Payton’s offense will be far stronger in Year 2. Nix pushed Jayden Daniels in the OROY battle last season, and if the Broncos can overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West, you’d have to imagine Nix would be a big part of that.
Following a tremendously successful rookie campaign, Stroud appeared to take a noticeable step backward in his progression in Year 2. He’s still the most likely Texans MVP candidate, but the quarterback's credentials aren't quite as rock solid this time around. He’ll need to take far fewer sacks and play far better in the Texans’ biggest games. Houston’s offseason was focused on rejiggering the offensive line and adding receiving help behind Nico Collins, so the hope clearly is that Stroud can regain some of his first-year magic. Last season, three Texans earned Defensive Player of the Year votes (Will Anderson Jr., Derek Stingley Jr. and Danielle Hunter) and two earned Defensive Rookie of the Year mentions (Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter), and Collins would be a worthy candidate for this exercise in the case of Stroud missing a chunk of the season. But the 23-year-old passer remains the most likely and obvious choice here.
I can’t in good conscience pick either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson in this spot. This nominal QB battle seems to favor Jones early, due to the uncertainty of Richardson’s injury status heading into training camp, but I’d be shocked if both don’t start games (plural) this season. It’s a situation that could easily backfire for the Colts, but they do have a player who could remediate the situation. In fact, I had so much belief in Jonathan Taylor last offseason that I picked him as my Colts MVP candidate then, coming off his worst statistical season. With apologies to Zaire Franklin, Taylor was the Colts’ best performer in 2024 -- despite the fact that he missed three weeks early in the season and ultimately posted modest receiving totals. I feel even stronger about the pick this time around, with the Colts’ run game being absolutely critical to achieving the level of team success that would produce an MVP candidate in the first place.
Jim Brown is the only rookie to win an MVP award in NFL history, so I fully recognize how unlikely it would be for Hunter to become the first player in nearly 70 years to accomplish the feat. The expectations for Hunter appear to already be unfairly high -- way above most rookies, including quarterbacks. Yet if the two-way player can pull off the NFL equivalent to his 2024 season at Colorado, he might break the paradigm of what being a league MVP looks like. He played more than 750 snaps on each side of the ball last year, unexpectedly taking home the Heisman Trophy and perhaps setting the stage for a unique NFL career.
Though we don’t yet know the Jaguars’ detailed plans for him, Hunter said he wants to play full time on both sides of the ball -- and who are we to doubt him? There are more measured MVP candidates in Jacksonville, including Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Travon Walker and Joshua Hines-Allen, but what fun is there in that?
It might take something like 900 receiving yards and 8-10 touchdowns on offense, I figure, plus four or more interceptions (and other big plays) on defense for Hunter even to enter the MVP discussion. He could be the longest of long shots, but Hunter is the most fascinating possibility here.
Even if you argue that Mahomes’ play has slipped in the past two years -- and I’d agree with you -- it almost certainly would require him missing a chunk of the season to realistically go with another choice here. Mahomes has not missed more than two starts in a season since taking over in 2018, mind you, and he’s a two-time MVP winner who has also finished top seven in the voting in three other seasons. To win a third one likely would require Mahomes beefing up his numbers significantly, more to the level he consistently reached from 2018 to 2022. But there’s plenty of motivation for all parties in Kansas City following the Super Bowl blowout in February, and Mahomes’ weaponry appears very strong in what could be Travis Kelce’s swan-song season.
I so badly wanted to go with Brock Bowers, who edged out Bo Nix for second place in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting, even snagging a first-place vote away from Jayden Daniels. Bowers earned all of the accolades he received as a rookie -- including first-team All-Pro honors -- and profiles as a special player for the franchise. But a tight end receiving MVP votes happens about as often as Halley’s Comet makes an appearance. Travis Kelce has never received an MVP vote; neither did Rob Gronkowski nor Tony Gonzalez. So the idea of Bowers getting it over Smith feels a bit absurd, fairly so or not.
The Raiders knew they had to upgrade at quarterback this offseason, and Smith represents their best hope at the position since peak Derek Carr, who finished third in MVP voting in 2016. Las Vegas might not be overflowing with offensive talent, but Smith might be able to bring this offense together enough to put himself in the running. He finished tied for ninth in the MVP race just three seasons ago and could still have enough left in the tank, even as he’s set to turn 35 this year.
The Herbert debate is a fascinating one, fueled by ardent voices on both sides. Some think he’s vastly overrated; others view him as perennially overlooked and underserved. Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in the divide, but Herbert appears to be the Chargers’ MVP favorite by a clear margin -- even after a season in which they asked him to throw more than 10 times fewer per game than Herbert averaged his first three seasons.
Despite Jim Harbaugh's Bolts being run-heavy, I had a hard time imagining rookie Omarion Hampton or Najee Harris outweighing Herbert’s value to the offense. Khalil Mack has been tremendous for L.A., but racking up 17 sacks and five forced fumbles in 2023 only earned him a tie for ninth place in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Herbert has finished in the top 10 of MVP voting twice in the past three years, and he’s really the only Charger capable of earning more votes this season.
Tua was squarely in the mix for league MVP entering December of the 2022 campaign despite having missed two games at that point, and he followed that up with his first -- and only -- 17-game season in 2023, throwing for an NFL-high 4,624 yards. Last year was cut short by injury, but Tagovailoa still led the league in completion percentage (72.9).
I fully grasp the skepticism of Tua being an MVP candidate, but you can't say he can't play. The Dolphins have won about 60 percent of their games with him at quarterback and 39 percent of games started by any other QB since 2020. If he can play 14 or more games this season and the Dolphins contend, I think he's a much stronger choice than Tyreek Hill, who’s coming off one of his tougher seasons.
Maye spent much of his rookie season running for his life, but it didn't look half bad. The Patriots had plenty of issues during a 4-13 campaign that cost Jerod Mayo his job, but Maye came out of the experience having won over a lot of folks. Now imagine what he could do with what appears to be a far better support system. Josh McDaniels is back for another run in New England, and he could help bring out the best in Maye, especially in terms of dealing with pressure. Every element of the offense was given a spring cleaning. If the O-line jells and Maye isn't dodging free rushers every dropback, the 22-year-old absolutely can become an MVP contender -- one day.
New York’s among the toughest teams to analyze in this exercise. Which Jet could be a viable MVP candidate in 2025? Justin Fields finished ninth in MVP voting in 2022, so you can't rule him out. I might have chosen Breece Hall, but I wonder if he'll get the workload (or touchdown total) to enter the mix. The TD thing is a knock against Wilson (only 14 in 51 NFL games), who has otherwise been consistently productive with often-poor QB play, thus explaining the four-year, $130 million extension.
The question of whether Fields is a legitimate passer remains, but he helped DJ Moore produce a 96-catch, 1,364-yard, eight-TD season. If Wilson could beef up those numbers a bit and help vault the Jets back into contention, I could see some Fields-leery voters swaying more toward Wilson ... in this (still highly fanciful) scenario.
We'll get to the (new) elephant in the room in a minute, but one of the biggest impediments to Watt becoming an MVP candidate is that he's currently seeking more guaranteed money with training camp right around the corner. That said, Watt is one of the handful of defenders who could even dream of entering this race. With one DPOY award and four other top-five finishes, he's already hit some elite plateaus. Still, it might take a 25-sack season for a defensive player to earn even a single MVP vote.
So, why not Aaron Rodgers, Mr. Four-Time MVP? Well, he'd be the obvious choice, by position and pedigree. But Rodgers' play has been in decline for a few seasons now, and fully integrating into this new offense in a relatively short span is a big ask. One more MVP would tie Rodgers with Peyton Manning at five such awards, but it feels too elusive.
Jayden Daniels ended up finishing seventh in last season's MVP voting following his brilliant rookie campaign, leading his franchise to heights it hadn't reached in decades. That is essentially the roadmap for Ward entering this year's mix. He might have been one of the more overshadowed No. 1 overall picks in recent memory, but he has the kind of talent and charisma to rally a downtrodden Titans team, which featured one of the least potent offenses in the NFL last season. It would take something truly special, but Ward has the upside to enjoy something close to a Daniels-like rookie campaign, and leading Tennessee to an unexpected playoff run might earn him MVP votes.
