Finding safe players -- those who have a high probability to be solid producers -- in the middle rounds of your fantasy drafts can give you an edge over your league-mates. There are good players who fall in drafts every year, perhaps because they are older, seem like boring picks, dealt with injury last season or lack top-10 upside ... but you can't swing for the fences on every pick.
Below are seven players who will likely be available after Round 4 to provide your team with a reliably high floor and bankable production. Average draft position (ADP) is pulled from Fantasy Pros, based on 12-team PPR leagues. One interesting note: Three Cowboys players ended up on this list, making me realize that Dallas might be widely underrated heading into the 2024 season.
ADP: Round 5 (WR25)
While playing with a handful of different quarterbacks over the last two seasons, Cooper has averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game (12th among WRs since 2022, min. 20 games). Cleveland's QB1, Deshaun Watson, has struggled over the past two seasons, but he's still built a strong connection with Cooper. In the five games Watson played in 2023, Cooper averaged 96 receiving yards and 17.6 fantasy points (this excludes Week 7, when Watson had one completion before leaving). The Browns' offense projects to be pass-heavy in 2024, especially considering star RB Nick Chubb is coming off a devastating knee injury, and it's not yet known when he'll be able to play. Unless an injury stops him, Cooper should have no issue outperforming his current price tag of WR25.
ADP: Round 5 (RB19)
Conner finished as a top-five RB in four of the eight weeks he played with Kyler Murray last season -- that is more top-five finishes than Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon had over the entire 2023 season. Over his three seasons with the Cardinals, Conner has averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game, which ranks ninth most among RBs since 2021 (min. 20 games played). Please don't let the addition of third-round pick Trey Benson scare you off of drafting Conner; it is extremely rare that any rookie drafted that late beats out a solid veteran, and Benson is still fighting to climb the depth chart behind Conner. If injury concerns are keeping you away, given that Conner has missed eight combined games over the past two seasons, that is fair, but the price (RB19) nicely cushions that risk, making Conner an appealing choice late in Round 5.
ADP: Round 6 (QB8)
The player who finished 2023 as the QB3 in total fantasy points (only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts scored more) and actually led the league in that category from Week 6 to 18 can be had in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts this season. There is no reason to expect much to change for Prescott this season; the Cowboys will still need to heavily lean on the passing game, maybe even more so after the offseason departures of RB Tony Pollard and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
Prescott has been a top-four fantasy QB in average points per game in three of the last five seasons, and the Cowboys have consistently been one of the top offenses in the NFL over the last handful of years. The Cowboys have averaged 30.8 points per game with Prescott as the starter since 2020 (most by any starting QB during that span, min. 25 starts). Prescott presents a much safer floor than other pocket passers who carry similar upside but are being drafted ahead of him (C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow and Jordan Love).
ADP: Round 6 (WR31)
He might not be the most exciting pick, but Kirk has a great chance to lead the Jaguars in targets this season, given that Calvin Ridley's departure in free agency means Kirk's top competition at the position are rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and boom-or-bust veteran Gabe Davis. I know tight end Evan Engram paced Jacksonville in targets in 2023, but a significant number of those came after Kirk's season ended prematurely with a core muscle injury. Kirk led Jacksonville in receiving yards between Weeks 1 and 13 (787). He also finished as the WR12 in total fantasy points in 2022, after leading the Jaguars with career highs in receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108) and receiving touchdowns (eight). There is no logical reason that Kirk is falling so late in drafts; he's a very safe pick in the sixth round.
ADP: Round 6 (QB10)
Thanks to his 2022 ACL tear, Murray didn't hit the field until Week 10 last season. Despite Murray's late start in a new offensive system, where he was working with limited weapons, he still put up the 10th-most fantasy points per game among QBs in 2023. Before the ACL injury, Murray consistently ranked as a top-five fantasy QB -- he averaged 18 points per game before going down in 2022, and he was the QB4 in points per game in 2021 and QB3 in total points in 2020.
Unlike last season, Murray will have a true WR1 to lean on: rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. On top of that, the Cardinals' defense looks like it will be one of the worst in the NFL on paper, meaning Murray and the offense will have to put up plenty of points for Arizona to stay in games. One might be concerned about Murray's injury history, but paying QB10 prices for someone who has previously performed as a top-five fantasy player at his position makes this a very secure pick. Murray has similar upside to C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, but his more established track record makes him a safer choice than those second-year pros, both of whom are being selected multiple rounds ahead of him.
ADP: Round 7 (TE10)
Last season was Ferguson's second in the NFL and his first as a starter -- and he finished as the TE9 in total points scored, ranking second on the Cowboys in targets, receptions and receiving yards (behind only CeeDee Lamb in each). Ferguson should have no issues being the second target in this offense yet again, as the Cowboys made no clear upgrades to their pass-catching corps this offseason. Dak Prescott, meanwhile, has reliably driven value at tight end, supporting a top-12 fantasy player at that position in seven of his eight career seasons.
It is easy to project an increase in targets and touchdowns for Ferguson as he enters his third NFL season. His targets jumped from 5.3 per game in Weeks 1-12 to 8.0 per game over the last seven weeks of the season, including the playoffs. Plus, Ferguson only found the end zone five times in the regular season last year, despite having the fifth most red-zone targets in the NFL among all positions (tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown and DK Metcalf). Ferguson's draft cost makes him extremely safe, considering he will be an integral part of a high-scoring offense.
ADP: Round 9 (RB36)
At 29 years old, Elliott might not be as fast or efficient as he once was, but we can't ignore that he is in line for a big workload this season. Yes, he shares the depth chart with seventh-year pro Royce Freeman and Rico Dowdle (a former undrafted free agent who has 96 carries over three NFL seasons), but at the end of the day, I believe the Cowboys will lean on the guy who used to be the face of their franchise to handle the majority of the backfield workload.
Last year with the Patriots, Elliott not only led the team in receptions, but he also showed he still had juice left in the tank, starting the final five games of the season (Weeks 14-18). Over those five starts, he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which ranked 10th among RBs during that span -- and he finished as a top-six RB in two of those five weeks, with an RB1 overall performance thrown in.
