Winning a fantasy football championship is no easy feat. Hitting on your early draft picks can ensure you have a solid squad, but if you select a player in the late rounds and he ends up breaking out, that can be the difference between a playoff team and a championship team.
With that in mind, I identified five players who have a great chance to significantly outperform expectations after being selected in the final stretches of fantasy drafts. Players are listed based on average draft position (ADP) in 12-team PPR leagues, according to Fantasy Pros.
ADP: Round 10 (RB39)
As the Browns’ primary back from Weeks 2 through 18 last season, Ford recorded 210 fantasy points, 14th most among RBs during that span. He finished as a top-24 RB in 12 weeks, including four top-10 finishes. With Nick Chubb working his way back from the knee injury that ended his 2023 season in Week 2, Ford is being drafted around other backup RBs. I see an opportunity there for fantasy managers because Ford should still have a big role in the Browns’ offense. Chubb is coming off a severe injury, and he is still on the physically-unable-to-perform list with no clear timetable for his return. When Chubb does return, I expect him to be brought back slowly. Plus, Ford’s pass-catching role seems safe. He had 63 targets last season, fourth most on the Browns, and Chubb has never been utilized heavily as a pass-catching back. If you need depth at the RB position later in your draft, Ford is a very solid pick.
ADP: Round 11 (WR49)
With Calvin Ridley departing in free agency this offseason, there is a huge opportunity for Thomas to earn a large workload in his rookie year, especially in the red zone. Ridley saw a team-high 23 red-zone targets in 2023, 13 more than any other Jaguars player, per Next Gen Stats. Thomas, the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, could shine in this role. He was a scoring machine in 2023 at LSU, catching an FBS-high 17 touchdowns, including 12 deep TDs (20-plus air yds), which also led the FBS. Since 2000 there have been only three other SEC players who have scored 17-plus receiving touchdowns in a single season: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and DeVonta Smith. Thomas can be a league-winner for fantasy managers in 2024.
ADP: Round 13 or later (WR63)
Last season Shaheed finished second on the Saints with 719 receiving yards and tied for first with five receiving touchdowns. Obviously, those numbers don’t add up to a great fantasy season, but he made progress, finishing as the WR44 in 2023. I project he will have a big third-year leap in production, so his ADP is way too low at WR63. There is a clear path for his playing time and target share to increase with the team finally moving on from Michael Thomas. Plus, TE Juwan Johnson, who ranked fifth on the team in targets last season, is dealing with a foot injury that landed him on the PUP list. This Saints offense needs Shaheed to step up and be a great playmaker. He should fit very well in the system of new OC Klint Kubiak, who was the passing game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers last year. As long as the toe/foot injury he's dealing with doesn't become a long-term issue, New Orleans should be able to maximize Shaheed’s big-play ability.
ADP: Round 14 or later (WR66)
After landing on a Patriots offense that’s looking underwhelming, Polk is being overlooked in fantasy drafts. His ADP of WR66 is giving me flashbacks to when A.J. Brown was going undrafted in fantasy leagues as a rookie entering the 2019 season because the Titans did not appear to have an ideal situation for him in Year 1. Like Brown in 2019, Polk has a very realistic chance to be the top target in his offense. He’s earned glowing reviews in training camp. Polk flashed his big-play ability during his career at Washington, averaging 17.1 yards per catch from 2021 to 2023, which ranked fourth in the FBS during that span (min. 100 receptions). We’ll see how the Patriots’ QB competition turns out, but the likely Week 1 starter, Jacoby Brissett, is capable of helping a WR to a top-24 fantasy finish.
ADP: Round 14 or later (QB32)
The 2023 season was miserable for the Giants offense, especially for Jones, who ended up missing 11 games due to neck and knee injuries. Let’s not forget, though, that we are only one season removed from him finishing as a top-10 QB in fantasy. Mobile quarterbacks can provide an edge in fantasy football, and Jones has averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his career, which ranks third in the NFL among players with 300-plus carries since 2019 (behind only Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields). Jones put up 708 rush yards and 7 rush TDs in 2022, and 206 rush yards in 2023 even though he missed about two-thirds of the season. He has high upside because of his rushing ability, and now he finally has a true WR1 to target in rookie Malik Nabers, the sixth overall pick of the 2024 draft. Jones should not be going undrafted in fantasy leagues. He could be a great pick in the final round of your draft, especially if you took a lower-ceiling QB like Jared Goff earlier on.
