With the thick of fantasy draft season approaching, I recently provided my top 10 values at running back and tight end. I offered my top 10 league-winners, too. While there was a little bit of overlap, I tried to avoid writing about the same players here, so make sure to read those pieces as well. Now, on to my leading breakout candidates!
QUARTERBACK
Don't sweat the concerning August headlines; Fields is my guy this season. The Jets are clearly built to run the ball, and that should help Fields -- one of just three NFL QBs ever to post a 1,000-yard rushing season -- reach his full fantasy potential. Expect a lot of outside-zone runs, which play exactly to Fields' strength. Not only that, but new Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand spent the past five seasons on the Lions' coaching staff. If his offense operates like Detroit's did during his time there, I expect Fields won't be asked to air it out as much as he was in Chicago, and that he will instead be expected to complete shorter passes, like he did last year in Pittsburgh, when he posted his best career metrics as a passer. In his six starts with the Steelers, Fields generated 18.89 fantasy points per game; if he'd kept at that pace over 17 games, he would have finished with the seventh-most fantasy points among QBs. He could potentially exceed that in the Jets' offense this year.
Williams was the big winner of the offseason. The Bears rebuilt the interior of their offensive line, acquiring Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson. They added one of the best play-callers around, new head coach Ben Johnson. And they brough in more weapons (rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III) to join DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and D'Andre Swift. A similar build in Detroit helped take Jared Goff to new heights, both in real life and as a fantasy QB, and Williams is just one year removed from being drafted first overall and dubbed a generational prospect. He still brings a ton of upside and should become the first Bears QB to top 4,000 passing yards in a season this year. Plus, he is a sneaky good runner, having tallied nearly 500 yards on the ground in 2024.
I went on Fantasy Live last season to talk up Maye every chance I could. His 2024 stats might not jump off the page, but if you watched him play, you saw that he has the ability to be the next great fantasy QB, with a strong arm and true playmaking talent. Plus, he is mobile and can pick up sneaky points with his legs, a skill he has alluded to in the preseason. The Patriots improved their offensive line, bringing in Will Campbell, Jared Wilson, Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses, and they made additions to Maye's cast of weapons, draftingTreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams, each of whom carries upside in their own right. The only concern I have for Maye is that the Patriots will not throw enough; otherwise, the breakout potential is clear to see.
RUNNING BACK
Harvey fell to a fantastic landing spot with Sean Payton in Denver. Since 2011, the lead pass-catching back for Payton’s teams has averaged 81 targets per season. His top pass-catching RB failed to reach 60 targets just three times in that span, but that was because two backs each topped 50 targets in those years. In other words, Payton’s offense throws to RBs at a very high rate! Not only is Harvey a strong receiver, he is a shifty runner with good speed and should produce a bunch of chunk plays. During my 2025 NFL Draft prep I projected a Bucky Irving-like ceiling for Harvey. I love targeting him as a RB2 in the middle rounds of drafts.
Johnson is a big, powerful back who could thrive in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy system. Smith’s offenses have finished among the top four in rushing attempts in three straight seasons. Johnson could fill the void left by Najee Harris, who had 299 touches in 2024, and Johnson is the more explosive runner right now. His college tape is littered with big plays. Imagine Harris with all that volume and a Mario Kart mushroom boost. That is what Johnson could be in the Steelers’ offense. He’s being drafted as a RB3 right now, but he could easily exceed that value.
Mason seemingly came out of nowhere last year and ended up flirting with RB1 fantasy status while Christian McCaffrey was sidelined due to injury. Mason showed he belongs by leading all backs in missed tackles forced rate (37 percent) and finishing second in explosive run rate (15 percent of carries went for 10-plus yards). He was traded in the offseason but remains in a fantasy-friendly system with the Vikings. We are already hearing talk from camp that suggests Mason and Aaron Jones could split ground work. Plus, Jones will turn 31 in December and has played in every game only three times in his eight-year career. Mason will once again flirt with RB1 value if Jones misses time.
Blue is a deeper cut (currently the RB45 in ADP, per FantasyPros), but he’s still a breakout candidate I like. He has great speed, which he showed at the NFL Scouting Combine (4.38-second 40-yard dash). That speed and the ability to cut quickly stood out when I watched his college tape. He’s a weapon out of the backfield as a receiver, too. He reminded me of 2010 first-round pick C.J. Spiller when I was watching his film. Now, Blue will have to beat out Javonte Williams and (an already banged up) Miles Sanders for the Cowboys RB1 job. Williams is the bigger threat, but he has not looked the same since his knee injury a couple years ago. He struggled as a runner and averaged the fourth-fewest yards per target of all running backs last year. Blue has the juice and could quickly steal the lead gig in Dallas. Go get him in the later rounds of your drafts!
WIDE RECEIVER
Ridley has long been a favorite of mine. You might be wondering what he’s doing on this list, considering he has three 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, reaching the mark in each of the last two years. Well, I believe the last two seasons were a major disservice to him. First, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense did not live up to expectations in 2023, when TE Evan Engram saw more targets than Ridley. Then last year he had to deal with the Titans’ QB woes. Ridley is the clear-cut top target for Tennessee now and he has a potential QB upgrade in first overall pick Cam Ward. Last season Ridley had the third-highest rate of uncatchable targets, but he led all receivers in air yards per target. It was very volatile usage and he set a career-low in fantasy PPG, yet he still finished as a WR3, which is the price he’s going for this year. There is nowhere to go but up for him and the big season we have been waiting for still remains on the table.
Hunter was a favorite of mine (and many others) leading up to this year’s draft. As the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner’s college tape shows, he’s an elite talent who can win down the field and after the catch. I am continuing to operate under the assumption Hunter will primarily play wide receiver. The Jaguars are honoring his wish to take snaps on both sides of the ball. I hope he succeeds in this endeavor -- which would make him a unicorn by modern-era standards -- though we know there are skeptics around the league. Hunter should see his share of favorable coverage playing opposite Brian Thomas Jr., who is coming off a 1,282-yard, 10-touchdown rookie year. Talent tends to win out in this league and Hunter has the upside to easily outperform his WR3 draft cost.
As you can see, I am in on Chiefs wide receivers this year. Last season, Patrick Mahomes had the fewest air yards per attempt (6.3) of any QB who threw at least 400 passes. That should never be the case in Kansas City. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has said there’s a focus on getting the deep ball back into the team’s offense. Mahomes still has it, as we saw in Super Bowl LIX with his touchdown throw to Worthy. In 2024, Rice was on pace for a breakout year until a knee injury ended his season in Week 4. He has been practicing with the team, but he’s currently dealing with a groin injury and the possibility of a suspension looms after Rice was sentenced to 30 days in jail for his role in a high-speed car crash last year. If he’s healthy and clear to play for the bulk of the season, I still expect a breakout performance from him. Worthy really flashed down the stretch last season. He’s going as a WR3 in fantasy drafts, which could prove to be a steal. Brown remains a great field stretcher when healthy. He’s dealt with an ankle injury in camp and is going outside the top 50 WRs in most leagues. I view that as a pure buying opportunity.
Pearsall had to overcome a horrific situation in his transition to the NFL, as he suffered a gunshot wound to his chest in an attempted robbery last August. Miraculously, his injury was not serious enough to keep him out for very long. After making his debut in mid-October and getting some time to settle in, he really flashed his upside. Pearsall averaged 15-plus fantasy PPG in games where he was targeted at least five times. He can line up all over the field, which makes him a very dangerous weapon in Kyle Shanahan’s system. I like the 49ers’ top WRs this year, as they are all strong values, but I’m especially fond of Pearsall at the price of a WR4.
Coleman is the upside play in the Bills passing attack. He flashed as a potential breakout before a mid-November wrist injury sidelined him for four weeks. He didn’t look the same when he returned for the final month of the regular season, which opened the door for Amari Cooper, whom Buffalo traded for before the midseason deadline, to get more opportunities. Coleman has shown the ability to win downfield and in the red zone in camp; not surprising after he led the team in end zone targets in 2024. A high touchdown output is very much in play for Coleman this season, especially with reigning MVP Josh Allen running the offense. There is too much upside surrounding Coleman to pass over his average draft price (WR49, per FantasyPros).
