When preparing for a fantasy football draft, it is important to determine which players you can count on -- and which players you can't.
Taking chances on players with high upside is, of course, part of the game. But going for too many risky players can ruin your fantasy team before the season even starts.
With that in mind, I've compiled the following list of the seven riskiest players to pick in 2025, based on average draft position (ADP) in 12-team PPR leagues, according to Fantasy Pros. (And be sure to check out my compilation of the seven safest players to scoop up in Round 4 or later.)
ADP: Early Round 1 (RB3)
It might seem odd to say that the RB1 in fantasy points from 2024 is a risk to select with an early first-round pick one year later, but there are multiple reasons to be wary of paying a high price for Gibbs. The majority of his high-scoring performances last season came when David Montgomery was sidelined with an injury in Weeks 15-18, as Gibbs averaged an absurd 31.5 points per game in that four-game span. Prior to Montgomery’s injury, Gibbs was averaging 18.2 points per game. Plus, there’s a good chance we can expect touchdown regression in 2025. Gibbs scored 20 times last season but, again, eight of those came in the four games Montgomery did not play. I still fully expect Gibbs to be a great fantasy asset, but his hefty cost makes him a risky pick, based on his past production when playing alongside a healthy Montgomery.
ADP: Round 2 (TE1)
Bowers is here not because he is the TE1, but because fantasy managers will have to select him in the second round. Last season, he finished as the TE1 overall in total points after breaking numerous rookie tight end records; however, Bowers was the TE3 in points per game (15.5), right behind George Kittle (15.8) and Trey McBride (15.6). For a tight end to be worthy of a selection in the first two rounds, he must score much more than other players at his position, so that he becomes a massive advantage in your starting lineup. When Travis Kelce held the premier TE spot, he was averaging 18-plus points per game. I don’t foresee that being the case for Bowers in Year 2, because even in a season in which he saw 153 targets (!), he didn’t blow other top tight ends out of the water in production.
There is also the risk that his targets decline this fall with a new head coach (Pete Carroll), offensive coordinator (Chip Kelly) and quarterback (Geno Smith) -- not to mention the addition of top-10 draft pick Ashton Jeanty to the backfield. Bowers should be a very good fantasy asset, but fantasy managers can wait another two to three rounds before selecting Bowers -- or they should considering selecting Kittle or Sam LaPorta, who should put up similar (if not better) production in 2025.
ADP: Round 2 (WR10)
The WR5 overall in 2024 is now being drafted as the WR10 on average, which seems like a great deal, but the cost is still very risky. Despite that top-tier finish last season, London was just the WR14 in average points (16.5 per game), and his massive Week 18 performance, when he had an absurd 18 targets with Darnell Mooney on the sidelines, skewed his end-of-season numbers. London only finished as a top-10 WR twice during the regular fantasy season, and in Weeks 1-17, he averaged 15 points per game, which ranked 21st at the wide receiver position.
This season, London will receive targets from Michael Penix Jr., a question mark as he heads into his first NFL season as a full-time starter. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the young quarterback, London is possibly the riskiest pick in the early rounds. There’s a real chance he could be a bust at his current cost.
ADP: Round 4 (WR19)
After being one of the biggest fantasy letdowns in his highly anticipated rookie season, finishing as the WR44 in points per game, Harrison is still being drafted as a top-20 WR. There were just four weeks last season in which he was a top-20 producer at the receiver position, with finishes as the WR40 or worse in nine weeks. In addition, 15 percent of Harrison’s total fantasy production came in one quarter, the first quarter of Week 2. The rookie struggled to consistently separate in the Cardinals offense, averaging just 2 yards of separation per target, by far lowest among all NFL wide receivers with at least 100 targets last season, per Next Gen Stats.
It's hard to pinpoint how Harrison’s outlook will drastically change in Year 2, with the Cardinals running it back with quarterback Kyler Murray, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and very little turnover in the receiver room. I loved Harrison coming out of college, and I’m not giving up on him being a great NFL player, but he is definitely a risky draft selection in Round 4 at this stage.
ADP: Round 6 (RB24)
When Harvey was drafted in the second round by the Broncos, it felt like he was walking into an amazing opportunity to own the backfield. Since then, however, the team signed veteran JK Dobbins, a real threat (if he can stay healthy) to win the starting job and take valuable snaps from Harvey. I have confidence the rookie will still have a significant role in Sean Payton’s offense, but Dobbins, an efficient rusher when available, will likely be a thorn in Harvey's fantasy potential. Payton has often leaned on a committee approach in the backfield, and I fear he could have more confidence in feeding Dobbins than a rookie in close games. Harvey should have no problem winning the third-down role, thanks to his pass-catching ability -- but if he is limited to playing only on third down, he likely won’t offer enough value to be worthy of a sixth-round draft pick.
ADP: Round 6 (QB7)
I’m a big believer in Mayfield and take no issue with his sixth-round draft cost, but selecting him that early still comes with decent risk. He had an incredible 2024 campaign, throwing 41 touchdowns and finishing as the QB4 overall in fantasy points, behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow -- yet, that performance is an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Last season marked the first time Mayfield recorded at least 18 fantasy points per game (he averaged 21.5). He also scored 15 more touchdowns in 2024 than in any other season. Throwing 40-plus TDs in back-to-back years is a challenge for most QBs, let alone a player who hadn’t hit 30 in any of his other six NFL campaigns. Regression should be expected, even with Mayfield surrounded by a stacked group of skill players, and he’ll have a new play-caller (Josh Grizzard) for the fourth straight season.
ADP: Round 7 (WR35)
Not only has Olave been average at best in fantasy production when he is healthy, but he’s also missed time with injury in each of his three seasons, including more than half of 2024 with multiple concussions. In addition to monitoring Olave’s health, anyone interested in him will have to track one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. Competing for the QB1 job in Kellen Moore’s offense are second-round rookie Tyler Shough, 2024 fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler and 2023 fourth-round pick Jake Haener, none of whom inspire much optimism when it comes to supporting a good fantasy wide receiver this fall. It feels like there is little upside and a lot of downside in drafting Olave at (or anywhere near) his current cost.
