Entering Week 12 of the 2024 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.
A few notes before we dig in:
- All probabilities presented are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 19 unless otherwise noted below.
- Terms defined:
- If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
- If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
- Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.
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NFL playoff picture entering Week 12
| AFC | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose | No. 1 seed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Chiefs (9-1) | >99% | >99% | >99% | 61% |
| 2. Bills (9-2) | >99% | Bye | Bye | 24% |
| 3. Steelers (8-2) | 98% | 99% | 96% | 10% |
| 4. Texans (7-4) | 97% | 99% | 93% | 2% |
| 5. Chargers (7-3) | 91% | 97% | 86% | 2% |
| 6. Ravens (7-4) | 96% | 99% | 91% | 1% |
| 7. Broncos (6-5) | 69% | 77% | 54% | <1% |
- The race for the No. 1 seed got a whole lot more competitive after Week 11. By handing Kansas City its first loss of the season, Buffalo not only narrowed the gap between the two teams in the standings but clinched the head-to-head tie-breaker, should it come into play. The Bills now have a roughly one in four chance of earning the No. 1 seed by season's end -- nearly doubling their probability from one week ago.
- Buffalo's win was also a boon for the Steelers. Although Pittsburgh's probability remains relatively low -- slightly better than one in 10 -- unlike Buffalo, the Steelers do not need any help to clinch the conference's top spot and lone first-round bye. Mike Tomlin's crew can do it by winning the rest of the games on its schedule, including one at home against Kansas City on Christmas Day.
- The ripple effect of Kansas City's loss extends down the AFC standings, with the Chargers and Broncos -- both winners on Sunday -- seeing a slim opening to catch (and overtake) the Chiefs in the AFC West and at the head of the conference. And when I say slim, I mean slim: L.A. earned the No. 1 seed in 155 of the 10,000 simulations, while Denver earned the coveted bye in exactly one. Before you dismiss Denver's chances, consider the Broncos held a 0.0 percent chance before Week 11 kicked off. So ... progress!
- By surviving Cincinnati's second-half comeback Sunday night, the Chargers extended their win streak to four games and swapped spots with the Ravens in the AFC hierarchy. Just in time, too, with the HarBowl on tap for MNF. A win for Jim would put the Chargers in prime position to secure a playoff berth in his first season at the helm, while a loss for John (paired with a PIT win) could relegate the Ravens to also-ran status in the North and drop their odds to take the No. 1 seed to Denver-like levels. Fortunately for the older Harbaugh, Lamar Jackson is 17-4 for his career in games immediately following a loss and 6-2 overall on Monday night (including a 1-0 mark this season).
- One last note on the Steelers: Although they're extremely likely to clinch a playoff berth this year, their potential seed ranges from the top of the table to the final wild-card spot. In fact, they have a playoff probability of at least 4 percent in each of their conference's seven tournament slots -- the only team in the league for which that's true:
- 1st seed: 10%
- 2nd seed: 17%
- 3rd seed: 27%
- 4th seed: 13%
- 5th seed: 15%
- 6th seed: 11%
- 7th seed: 4%
| NFC | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose | No. 1 seed % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Lions (9-1) | >99% | >99% | 99% | 65% |
| 2. Eagles (8-2) | 97% | >99% | 94% | 15% |
| 3. Cardinals (6-4) | 57% | 75% | 44% | <1% |
| 4. Falcons (6-5) | 76% | Bye | Bye | <1% |
| 5. Vikings (8-2) | 95% | 98% | 90% | 14% |
| 6. Packers (7-3) | 81% | 92% | 68% | 3% |
| 7. Commanders (7-4) | 82% | 88% | 64% | 2% |
- Top-seeded Detroit dispatched yet another AFC South team on Sunday, scoring exactly 52 points against a member of that division for the second time in four games. The Lions will have a chance to make it three in five this weekend when they visit Indianapolis. With the way Philly is playing, Dan Campbell's group can't afford to let its foot off the pedal.
- Speaking of the second-seeded Eagles, their impressive performance versus Washington last Thursday gave them a two-game cushion in the NFC East race and (marginally) improved their odds in the conference competition, as well. Like Detroit, Philly has an away date in Week 12 with a desperate bubble team coming off a win.
- The Vikings, riding a win streak of their own, could be ready to pounce from the fifth seed, should either (or both) of these two NFC heavyweights stumble on Sunday. That said, an Eagles win at the Rams (5-5) wouldn't be the worst thing for Minnesota, as it would further cement the Vikings' spot in the playoff picture. This weekend, the Vikes wrap their current three-game road stand at Chicago, where the reeling Bears just suffered their latest heartbreaking defeat in a season derailed by them.
- No team faces a higher-leverage situation in Week 12 than the Cardinals (31 percentage points), who could go from potential host on Super Wild Card Weekend to out of the playoff picture entirely with a loss to the Seahawks on Sunday. Talk about stakes!
Which teams are on the playoff bubble?
| AFC Bubble teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8. Colts (5-6) | 28% | 45% | 21% |
- Despite their first-team-out status, several things are working in the Colts' favor right now: 1) They hold the head-to-head tie-breaker over Miami; 2) They still have a high-leverage matchup with the seventh-seeded Broncos to come; 3) And they will face four teams the rest of the way that currently sit at three wins or less. What's not ideal, though, is their upcoming opponent: the NFC-leading Lions.
| NFC Bubble teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8. Rams (5-5) | 15% | 22% | 8% |
| 9. Seahawks (5-5) | 25% | 36% | 10% |
| 10. 49ers (5-5) | 31% | 49% | 18% |
| 11. Buccaneers (4-6) | 34% | 42% | 17% |
- It's hard to overstate how much the Seahawks' comeback win on Sunday afternoon meant to their playoff hopes. With five of their final seven games being against teams above them in the standings -- including home tilts with Green Bay and Minnesota, as well as both of this year's matchups with the NFC West-leading Cardinals -- Seattle has legit avenues into the dance via the division and the wild card. They also have a less-legit path to the conference's No. 1 seed (3 in 10,000).
- Although the Bucs' best shot at punching their postseason ticket continues to be as NFC South champs, they did earn wild-card berths in 12 percent of the simulations. They remain underdogs for now, but that could change this week as they return from their bye. If the week off has them healthier (looking at you, Mike Evans) and refocused on defense, their favorable remaining slate (it's the second easiest in the NFL) sets them up for an exciting finish.
So you're saying there's a chance ...
(Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.)
| AFC fringe teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9. Dolphins (4-6) | 9% | 12% | 2% |
| 10. Bengals (4-7) | 9% | Bye | Bye |
| 11. Jets (3-8) | 2% | Bye | Bye |
| 12. Patriots (3-8) | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 13. Browns (2-8) | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14. Titans (2-8) | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| 15. Raiders (2-8) | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16. Jaguars (2-9) | <1% | Bye | Bye |
- Bleak is knowing you need a series of miracles to clinch a playoff berth -- and the NFL calendar hasn't even hit Thanksgiving yet. Too much would have to go just right for any of these eight teams to be playing on Super Wild Card Weekend, but most of their roads in some way, shape or form involve Denver. The Broncos, currently clutching the seventh seed, tee off against the Raiders and Browns before their Week 14 bye. They then close out the campaign against the Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals and home against Kansas City. If they go 2-4 or worse over that stretch (it's possible!), and one of these teams gets super hot (... it could happen!), we could be in for a huge surprise come January. All of these fan bases are members of Raider Nation this weekend.
- The Bengals enter their Week 12 bye wondering what might've been. Not just in Sunday night's deflating final two minutes, but in a campaign marred by six one-score losses. The two games remaining against Pittsburgh -- while obviously challenging -- at least give Cincinnati a chance to improve its conference and division records, while a Week 17 matchup with, you guessed it, Denver presents a possible direct line into the playoff picture. Three consecutive games against sub.-500 teams sandwiched between also don't hurt. Considering the monster campaigns Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are having, it'd be a shame if Cincinnati was completely out of the hunt before we hit the quarter pole.
- The Dolphins and Bengals teetered on the 9-10 percent ledge up until publishing, meaning they technically could have qualified as bubble teams. That they wound up within this group rather than with Indy above feels right, though, as the Colts have far more control over their playoff prospects than either Miami or Cincinnati.
| NFC fringe teams | Playoff % | If Win | If Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12. Bears (4-6) | 1% | 2% | <1% |
| 13. Saints (4-7) | 5% | Bye | Bye |
| 14. Panthers (3-7) | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 15. Cowboys (3-7) | <1% | 4% | <1% |
| 16. Giants (2-8) | <1% | <1% | 0% |
- This scenario would have seemed like an impossibility when the team was 1-7 and losing games by double-digits, but Carolina can still earn a postseason spot via the division and as a wild card. The Panthers got options, folks! If they were to win this weekend, they'd be just two games back of Atlanta in the NFC South pecking order. I know, right? They've already split the season series with New Orleans, have both games against Tampa to go and could get even with Atlanta in Week 18. There's a pretty clear path for them -- if the Panthers can run it. For all intents and purposes, their season starts Sunday against Kansas City. ... Oh, did I gloss over the fact that the 9-1 Chiefs are up next on the schedule? Or that the Panthers play at Philadelphia in three weeks? Or that their wild-card probability is 0.03 percent? Whatever. Let's live in the now.
Who's most likely to win each division?
| AFC East | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Bills (9-2) | >99% | Bye, SF, at LAR, at DET, NE, NYJ, at NE |
| 2. Dolphins (4-6) | <1% | NE, at GB, NYJ, at HOU, SF, at CLE, at NYJ |
| 3. Jets (3-8) | <1% | Bye, SEA, at MIA at JAC, LAR, at BUF, MIA |
| 4. Patriots (3-8) | <1% | at MIA, IND, Bye, at ARI, at BUF, LAC, BUF |
- Even with the Dolphins' recent two-game run, their chances of overtaking the Bills in the East are, uh, not great (.04%). But at least their odds aren't as bad (barely) as the Jets' (.03%) and Patriots' (.01%). New York and New England are one loss, or one Bills win, away from getting knocked out of this race for good; for that to happen to Miami, the Dolphins would need to lose and the Bills would need to win. Fortunately for the Fins, the Bills are on a bye this week, prolonging this division from being called for a little while longer.
| AFC North | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Steelers (8-2) | 68% | at CLE, at CIN, CLE, at PHI, at BAL, KC, CIN |
| 2. Ravens (7-4) | 32% | at LAC, PHI, Bye, at NYG, PIT, at HOU, CLE |
| 3. Bengals (4-7) | <1% | Bye, PIT, at DAL, at TEN, CLE, DEN, at PIT |
| 4. Browns (2-8) | 0% | PIT, at DEN, at PIT, KC, at CIN, MIA, at BAL |
- The Ravens have a lot of work to do after dropping Sunday's AFC North showdown in Pittsburgh -- not just to stay competitive in the division race, but also in terms of overall playoff seeding.
- The way the Steelers are playing, their two-game lead seems insurmountable for Baltimore. But five divisional contests over the next seven weeks, plus meetings with the Eagles and Chiefs, could certainly put a dent in their advantage. So though the division win probabilities might have see-sawed in Pittsburgh's favor after Sunday, this race isn't over yet.
- Even though the Browns didn't win the division in any of the 10,000 simulations, giving them 0% odds, they technically still could pull it off. Many, many things would have to fall into place for that to happen, starting with a win over Pittsburgh on Thursday night.
| AFC South | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Texans (7-4) | 95% | TEN, at JAC, Bye, MIA, at KC, BAL, at TEN |
| 2. Colts (5-6) | 4% | DET, at NE, Bye, at DEN, TEN, at NYG, at JAC |
| 3. Titans (2-8) | <1% | at HOU, at WAS, JAC, CIN, at IND, at JAC, HOU |
| 4. Jaguars (2-9) | <1% | Bye, HOU, at TEN, NYJ, at LV, TEN, at IND |
- At 2-8, the Titans are far more likely to finish the season with a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft than they are a spot in the final playoff field. However, their remaining schedule at least affords them the opportunity to do some damage in the division. They have five games within the South still on the schedule, including two against the Texans, meaning Tennessee -- in theory -- controls a two-game swing in its catch-up effort. Houston also has to play Kansas City and Baltimore, as well as a Miami team teeming with confidence. So there are spots for the Texans to trip up. But even if the Titans can't help themselves (or get the help they need) down the stretch, they could end up doing a solid for the Colts, who, having lost twice to Houston already, need all the assistance they can get.
| AFC West | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Chiefs (9-1) | 94% | at CAR, LV, LAC, at CLE, HOU, at PIT, at DEN |
| 2. Chargers (7-3) | 5% | BAL, at ATL, at KC, TB, DEN, at NE, at LV |
| 3. Broncos (6-5) | 1% | at LV, CLE, Bye, IND, at LAC, at CIN, KC |
| 4. Raiders (2-8) | 0% | DEN, at KC, at TB, ATL, JAC, at NO, LAC |
- The Chiefs made the playoffs in 9,999 of the 10,000 simulations. Can you imagine what type of chaos would have to ensue for that lone scenario to become reality? Me neither ... the quest for the three-peat is alive and well.
- There's little doubt that Kansas City will qualify for the postseason in the near future, but the question of how the ticket is punched still carries some uncertainty. There were 591 instances in which the model didn't have the Chiefs securing their ninth consecutive division title -- up about 3 percentage points from last week. Credit Sunday's loss in Buffalo, plus wins by the Chargers and Broncos, for keeping the door ajar. Both L.A. and Denver would, of course, need help to supplant the Chiefs, but both can actually help themselves when they get a second crack at Kansas City in the coming weeks. Remember, the Chiefs narrowly beat the Broncos in Week 10 and needed 17 unanswered points to top the Chargers in Week 4.
| NFC East | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Eagles (8-2) | 76% | at LAR, at BAL, CAR, PIT, at WAS, DAL, NYG |
| 2. Commanders (7-4) | 23% | DAL, TEN, Bye, at NO, PHI, ATL, at DAL |
| 3. Cowboys (3-7) | <1% | at WAS, NYG, CIN, at CAR, TB, at PHI, WAS |
| 4. Giants (2-8) | 0% | TB, at DAL, NO, BAL, at ATL, IND, at PHI |
- Any semblance of hope the Cowboys were clinging to disappeared at double zeros on Monday night. While they've yet to be mathematically eliminated, they only storm back to win the division in 11 of the 10,000 simulations. Not promising, to say the least. But it could be worse ... they could be the Giants, who, for the second week in a row, advanced in exactly one of the 10,000 simulations. New York's role in this race officially devolves into spoiler with a loss or an Eagles win this weekend.
| NFC North | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Lions (9-1) | 77% | at IND, CHI, GB, BUF, at CHI, at SF, MIN |
| 2. Vikings (8-2) | 18% | at CHI, ARI, ATL, CHI, at SEA, GB, at DET |
| 3. Packers (7-3) | 5% | SF, MIA, at DET, at SEA, NO, at MIN, CHI |
| 4. Bears (4-6) | <1% | MIN, at DET, at SF, at MIN, DET, SEA, at GB |
- Another week, another brutal loss for Chicago. After their latest walk-off waxing, the Bears' path to the playoffs has narrowed to nearly nonexistent. Should they lose to the Vikings and the Lions beat the Colts this weekend, they will be left with only one scenario in which they could still win the NFC North. Here's what would need to happen:
- Bears: Win out to finish 10-7.
- Lions: Lose out, including against the Vikings in Week 18, to finish 10-7.
- Vikings: Lose their next five games but win at Detroit in Week 18 to finish 10-7.
- Packers: Finish 10-7 or worse.
- In the event Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota all finish at 10-7, the Bears' combined 3-1 head-to-head record would earn them the North. If the Packers also finish 10-7, the Bears' 4-2 division record would be good enough to take the title.
| NFC South | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Atlanta Falcons (6-5) | 70% | Bye, LAC, at MIN, at LV, NYG, at WAS, CAR |
| 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) | 27% | at NYG, at CAR, LV, at LAC, at DAL, CAR, NO |
| 3. New Orleans Saints (4-7) | 2% | Bye, LAR, at NYG, WAS, at GB, LV, at TB |
| 4. Carolina Panthers (3-7) | <1% | KC, TB, at PHI, DAL, ARI, at TB, at ATL |
- It looked like this race was over at the midway point, with Atlanta sporting a 6-3 overall record and a 4-0 mark in the division and already being in control of the H2H tie-breaker with Tampa. Two weeks and two Falcons losses -- including a 32-point bludgeoning by Denver -- later, and suddenly the South doesn't seem so set in stone. Down the season series, the Bucs enter the final seven weeks at a severe disadvantage. However, their remaining schedule is far more forgiving than Atlanta's. In fact, Raheem Morris' group will almost certainly be underdogs in at least three of its final six games (Chargers, at Vikings, at Commanders), and losing even two of those would create an opening for the Bucs -- or the suddenly resurgent Saints -- to force their way back into the mix.
| NFC West | Division % | Remaining Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Cardinals (6-4) | 52% | at SEA, at MIN, SEA, NE, at CAR, at LAR, SF |
| 2. Rams (5-5) | 11% | PHI, at NO, BUF, at SF, at NYJ, ARI, SEA |
| 3. Seahawks (5-5) | 18% | ARI, at NYJ, at ARI, GB, MIN, at CHI, at LAR |
| 4. 49ers (5-5) | 19% | at GB, at BUF, CHI, LAR, at MIA, DET, at ARI |
- The 49ers' last-second meltdown on Sunday was arguably the most costly defeat of the entire week, with San Francisco's division win probability and playoff probability both taking massive hits as a result (division: 41% to 19%; playoff: 59% to 31%). Despite being only one game back in the standings, the Niners have the worst division record of the group (1-3) and one of the hardest remaining schedules in the league. It would be quite something if Geno Smith's first career win against the 49ers (he's 1-5 against them, including playoffs) ended up undoing San Francisco's season.
- As bad as Sunday's upset was for Kyle Shanahan and Co., it was season-saving for Seattle. Still a long way to go, but with two games left against Arizona (one this Sunday), as well as a Week 18 date with the Rams, the Seahawks enter Week 12 able to secure a division title by winning out.
- The Cardinals return from their bye up one spot in the NFC standings and possessing a division win probability 6 percentage points higher than it was a week ago. Like getting a raise while on vacation!
