NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 17 of the 2025 season

Entering Week 17 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Dec. 23 unless otherwise noted below.

Jump to:

• Five most consequential games of the week
• Division races
• Remaining strength of schedule rankings

NFL playoff picture entering Week 17

• Four teams -- the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars and Patriots -- punched their playoff tickets in Week 16, joining Denver in the AFC playoff bracket. Just two spots remain. One has been allocated to the AFC North champion -- probably the Steelers (91%) -- who will almost certainly enter the postseason as the No. 4 seed (more on this in a second). The other will likely go to the Texans (96.6%), who need one more win/tie (at Chargers, vs. Colts) or Colts loss/tie (vs. Jaguars, at Texans) to secure their spot.
• We've seen a lot of unimaginable outcomes this season, as recently as last week. But Indianapolis, at 3.4 percent, sneaking its way into the tournament at this late stage would arguably take the cake.
• In handing Denver loss No. 3, Jacksonville delivered an early gift to the other four AFC teams still contending for first place in the conference. The Broncos remain in control of this race, but any future misstep (say, vs. the Chargers in Week 18) could lead to their ouster from the top spot.
• No team benefited more from the Broncos' Week 16 stumble than the Patriots, who, by then beating Baltimore on Sunday night, tripled their odds to grab the No. 1 seed from a week ago (11% to 31%). Given New England's favorable remaining schedule (at Jets, vs. Dolphins), the pressure is on Sean Payton's club to bounce back quickly (the Broncos visit Kansas City on Thursday) and convincingly.
• If neither New England nor Denver reach 14 wins, though, then this competition opens up considerably. In the event the Jaguars win out (at Colts, vs. Titans) to finish 13-4 and join a multi-team tie at the top of the table, they would clinch the AFC's playoff bye. If Jacksonville comes up short of that total, though, while the Chargers win out (vs. Texans, at Broncos), then L.A. would be crowned conference and division champs by season's end.
• The Bills are still in the hunt, too, but they need even more outcomes to break their way. First and foremost, they have to get to 13 wins (vs. Eagles, vs. Jets). Then, they'd need Denver, New England, Jacksonville and L.A. all to finish 1-1 or worse over the next two weeks. In that scenario, Buffalo would win the AFC East over the Patriots and then hold the tie-breaker over the Broncos for the conference. A possible future, but not a probable one. What's more likely to happen should the Bills win out, then, is that they'd enter the tournament as the No. 5 seed (38%).
• Technically, the Texans could also still win the conference. But the NGS model spit out that possibility in just 2 of 10,000 simulations, which ... isn't promising. For those hopeful Houston-heads out there, here's what would need to occur:
  • Texans win out (including at LAC):
  • Broncos lose out (including vs. LAC):
  • Patriots lose out
  • Bills and Jaguars finish 1-1 or worse.
• How about a Texans Week 17 scenario that's a bit more realistic? If they beat the Chargers on Saturday, the Texans move up to No. 6. If the Jags then lose at Indianapolis on Sunday, Houston climbs all the way up to third place. Of course, before the Texans can entertain the idea of a postseason bye or even a home playoff game, they first need to qualify for the tournament. ...
• While Houston is on the verge of clinching, the Colts are conversely on the brink of elimination. And yet, despite five straight losses, Indy enters Week 17 needing only to win its game (vs. Jaguars) and for the Chargers to beat the Texans to potentially trigger a win-and-in scenario at Houston in the season finale. I say "potentially" because there is a very specific six-outcome scenario -- starting with the Chiefs beating the Broncos on Christmas -- involving strength of schedule/strength of victory tie-breakers that would still put Houston in over Indy. But let's worry about that next week, if we have to at all.
• With Mike Tomlin's streak of consecutive non-losing seasons secured (19 and counting), the Steelers can now focus on solidifying their spot in the playoffs. A Ravens loss/tie at Green Bay on Saturday night would do the trick, as would a Steelers win/tie at Cleveland on Sunday. Although Pittsburgh's postseason seed would almost certainly be No. 4, there's a 0.5 percent chance the Steelers enter as the No. 3 seed. For that to happen, they would need to win out, and both the Jaguars and the Texans would have to lose out.

Eliminated AFC Teams

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)
11. Miami Dolphins (6-9)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
13. New York Jets (3-12)
16. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)

• Because the NFL remains a copycat league, four NFC teams -- the Bears, Eagles, 49ers and Seahawks -- also punched their tickets in Week 16, joining L.A. on the other side of the playoff bracket. Just two spots remain. One has been allocated to the NFC South champion -- either the Panthers or Buccaneers -- who will almost certainly enter the postseason as the No. 4 seed (98%). The other will likely go to the Packers (94%), who need one more win/tie (vs. Ravens, at Vikings) or Detroit loss/tie (at Vikings, at Bears) to secure their spot. There is still a way for the Lions to slide back into the frame, though ...
• ... Detroit's only hope at this juncture (and it is slim, at 6%) is to take both of its remaining contests (at Vikings, at Bears) and have Green Bay finish 0-2. That would cement Detroit as the seventh seed in the tournament. The Lions are left with only one viable path because they came up just short to the Steelers on Sunday, which not only clinched a playoff berth for Chicago, but put the Bears in the awkward and extremely uncomfortable position ...
• ... of owing thanks to Aaron Rodgers. As they say, the enemy of your enemy ...
• OK, a little more on the Bears: If they win even one of their final two games (at 49ers, vs. Lions), they're guaranteed the NFC North title and at least the No. 2 seed. But it's possible the Bears could lock up both before they even take the field again; if the Packers lose to the Ravens on Saturday night and the Eagles fall at Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, then Ben Johnson's club will have clinched a top-two finish in the conference ahead of the Bears' Sunday night affair at San Francisco. ...
• Of course, Chicago has bigger aspirations than being the NFC's second city. Although there are a few different scenarios that would lead to the Bears securing the No. 1 seed (including if there's a four- or even five-way tie between 12-5 teams), the most straightforward route involves them winning out and Seattle losing at least one of its final two games (at Panthers, at 49ers). But the irony with this "clean" scenario is that a Bears win next weekend could actually make a Seahawks loss in Week 18 less likely. Let me explain. If the Seahawks top the Panthers during Sunday's early window, and then the Bears win at San Francisco later that night, then the 49ers would be eliminated from NFC West contention and, thus, be relegated to a wild-card spot. With little seeding incentive remaining for the Niners in their Week 18 H2H vs. the 'Hawks -- other than to possibly move from No. 6 to No. 5 in the standings -- Kyle Shanahan might opt to rest his starters, clearing the way for Seattle to seize the conference title in the season finale.
• So while the playoff leverage featured in Seahawks-Panthers isn't the highest for Week 17 (19%), that matchup actually has substantial implications on the overall conference race. Here are some potential clinching scenarios for the one seed, should Seattle lose at Carolina:
  • 49ers clinch by: Winning out (vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks)
  • Bears clinch by: Winning out (at 49ers, vs. Lions)
  • Rams clinch by: Winning out (at Falcons, vs. Cardinals) + 49ers and Bears both finish 1-1 or worse
• If you watched Packers-Bears on Saturday night and thought, That was one of the best games of the year. I'd love to see a Round 3. Well, you're not alone, and you'll probably get your wish. Per the NGS model, the Bears and Packers are the overwhelming favorites to finish as the Nos. 2 and 7 seeds, respectively, setting up a possible rubber match between the two rivals at Solider Field on Wild Card Weekend.
• Finally, how about a little spoiler spotlight: Minnesota is in position to potentially make life real miserable for two of its three division mates. With home games against the Lions and Packers to close out the campaign, the Vikings could potentially be responsible for knocking Detroit out of playoff contention and Green Bay out of the NFC North title race in back-to-back weeks -- all while earning their third winning season in the last four years. Pretty good as far as consolation prizes go.

Eliminated NFC Teams

9. Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
11. Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1)
12. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Washington Commanders (4-11)
15. Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
16. New York Giants (2-13)

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Top 5 most consequential games

If you're seeking high drama, the games below are the ones to track, featuring the most notable blend of seeding/division implications and combined playoff leverages in Week 17. Watch local and prime-time games live on NFL+ -- and, of course, catch every touchdown from every Sunday game on NFL RedZone (with NFL+ Premium).

Who's most likely to win each division?

(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)

• New England enters Week 17 in position to (finally) lock up the AFC East, with a win (at Jets) and a Bills loss (vs. Eagles) securing the franchise its first division title since 2019. Should both teams win (or lose), however, then the "and" in the Pats' clinching scenario becomes an "or" in Week 18.
• BUT, if the Pats lose in Week 17 while the Bills prevail, then Buffalo assumes control of this contest. Josh Allen and Friends would then enter the season's final weekend in possession of their own "or" scenario.

• The Ravens held a 69 percent division win probability as recently as three weeks ago. Now, they appear to be simply playing out the string -- potentially without Lamar Jackson (back) under center. Baltimore needs to win at Green Bay on Saturday night and have Pittsburgh lose at Cleveland on Sunday in order to stave off elimination for another week. In that scenario, the Ravens would then be able to overtake the Steelers in the standings when the two rivals meet in the season finale. Any other set of outcomes would net the Steelers their first AFC North crown since 2020.

• With a one-game advantage and a far more favorable remaining slate, the Jags hold a substantial edge over the Texans in this race. But Houston wins out in any scenario in which these two teams finish with the same overall record. So as long as the Texans keep winning, then this race will come down to Week 18.

• Despite their loss to the Jaguars on Sunday, the Broncos remain 3:1 favorites to finish atop the division; in fact, they could be crowned champs before Sunday. A Broncos win at Kansas City on Christmas Day combined with a Chargers loss vs. Houston on Saturday would officially end this race in Denver's favor. However, if both of these contenders win (or lose) this week, then their head-to-head showdown in the season finale will decide who's the next AFC West champion.

• The Bears' stunning comeback over the Packers on Saturday night dropped Chicago's magic number to one. Green Bay can now only regain the NFC North lead by winning out while the Bears lose out.

• The Panthers captured Round 1 of their head-to-head series with the Bucs on Sunday and with it, the ability to wrap up this competition by Sunday afternoon -- with a win vs. Seattle and a Tampa Bay loss at Miami. If Carolina fails to lock up the South this weekend, then Dave Canales' crew will have to beat the Bucs again -- this time in Tampa -- to guarantee a division title and spot in this year's tournament.
• Then again, even if Carolina loses out -- including Round 2 with the Bucs -- there's still a scenario in which the Panthers end the campaign as NFC South champions. Back-to-back wins have the Falcons sitting at 6-9 overall, meaning it's currently possible for them, the Panthers and the Bucs all to finish the season at 8-9. And in the event of a three-way tie, the Panthers' 3-1 record heads-up would put them over.

• Seattle's dominant division win probability reflects the reality that they can lose at Carolina this weekend and still be in position to clinch first place at San Francisco in Week 18. The 49ers do not have the same luxury. If the Seahawks beat the Panthers on Sunday afternoon, and the 49ers lose to the Bears later that night, then the Niners are officially eliminated from the NFC West competition.
• Speaking of elimination scenarios ... if both the Seahawks and the 49ers win their Week 17 matchups, then the Rams -- who reigned over the West from Weeks 11 to 15 -- would be knocked out of the running for their second consecutive division title.
• For the Rams to regain control of the division lead, they'd need to win out and have both the 'Hawks and Niners -- who face each other in the finale -- finish the year 1-1 or worse.

Remaining strength of schedules for every NFL team

T-1) 49ers: .767 -- vs. Bears | vs. Seahawks
T-1) Jets: .767 -- vs. Patriots | at Bills
3) Chargers: .733 -- vs. Texans | at Broncos
4) Colts: .700 -- vs. Jaguars | at Texans
T-5) Texans: .633 -- at Chargers | vs. Colts
T-5) Panthers: .633 -- vs. Seahawks | at Buccaneers
T-5) Dolphins: .633 -- vs. Buccaneers | at Patriots
T-5) Seahawks: .633 -- at Panthers | vs. 49ers
T-5) Bears: .633 -- at 49ers | vs. Lions
10) Ravens: .617 -- at Packers | at Steelers
11) Lions: .600 -- at Vikings | at Bears
12) Vikings: .583 -- vs. Lions | vs. Packers
13) Broncos: .567 -- at Chiefs | vs. Chargers
14) Commanders: .550 -- vs. Cowboys | at Eagles
T-15) Cardinals: .533 -- at Bengals | at Rams
T-15) Titans: .533 -- vs. Saints | at Jaguars
T-15) Falcons: .533 -- vs. Rams | vs. Saints
18) Eagles: .500 -- at Bills | vs. Commanders
T-19) Packers: .467 -- vs. Ravens | at Vikings
T-19) Browns: .467 -- vs. Steelers | at Bengals
T-19) Buccaneers: .467 -- at Dolphins | vs. Panthers
T-19) Chiefs: .467 -- vs. Broncos | at Raiders
23) Bills: .433 -- vs. Eagles | vs. Jets
24) Jaguars: .367 -- at Colts | vs. Titans
25) Steelers: .333 -- at Browns | vs. Ravens
T-26) Rams: .300 -- at Falcons | vs. Cardinals
T-26) Patriots: .300 -- at Jets | vs. Dolphins
T-26) Saints: .300 -- at Titans | at Falcons
29) Giants: .283 -- at Raiders | vs. Cowboys
30) Raiders: .267 -- vs. Giants | vs. Chiefs
T-31) Cowboys: .200 -- at Commanders | at Giants
T-31) Bengals: .200 -- vs. Cardinals | vs. Browns

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