NFL Week 9 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup analysis for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 9 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 30.

THURSDAY, OCT. 30

Why Dan picked the Ravens: Visiting squads are just 2-6 on Thursday nights in 2025. I'm not ready to predict the Dolphins -- a team that was shellacked by the Browns very recently -- will pull off a major upset for the second week in a row, though. For the first time all season, it feels like the Ravens have momentum and, more importantly, decent health. We are expecting the long-awaited return of Lamar Jackson (for real this time, it seems) on the heels of Baltimore's season-saving victory over the Bears. I'm not overlooking what Miami did a few days ago, dropping 34 points on a Falcons defense that's played a lot better than the Ravens' unit this season. Mike McDaniel has the wherewithal to spread Zach Orr's crew out and expose some holes. Jackson might be knocking off some rust, having not taken the field in nearly five weeks while recovering from a hamstring injury. It could be closer than a lot of people expect, but in the end, the Ravens still have playoff aspirations and know their back is against the wall. They should find a way to win.

SUNDAY, NOV. 2

Why Brooke picked the Bears: What a difference one week can make. Seven days ago, the Bengals were riding high off their prime-time win over rival Pittsburgh. Now, they're trying to forget Sunday's stunning collapse and quarterback Joe Flacco is day-to-day with a shoulder injury. (Jake Browning will get the call if Flacco can't go.) Flacco ranks in the top five in a number of passing metrics since being traded to Cincinnati, and regardless of who is throwing the rock for Zac Taylor's unit, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be just fine against a banged-up Bears secondary. The Bengals' offense is the least of my worries, to be honest. That's because the defense is atrocious, giving up 23 fourth-quarter points last week to allow the previously winless Jets to steal a victory at Paycor Stadium. Star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is also dealing with a hip injury. The Bears, who scored a season-low 16 points last week, should feel pretty dang good about this potential get-right opportunity. Look for Ben Johnson to really lean into the run game to help steady Caleb Williams this week on the road. Since the Bears returned from the bye in Week 6, Chicago ranks third in rush yards per game at 154.3. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has allowed a league-worst 184.7 rush yards per game in that span. There are concerns surrounding the Bears, to be sure. They just aren't as loud as the ones facing the Bengals entering November.

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: What should we expect from J.J. McCarthy? The No. 10 overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft missed his entire rookie campaign following a preseason knee injury, but the Vikings still allowed Pro Bowl QB Sam Darnold to walk in free agency this past March, clearing the way for the second-year pro to assume the starting role. McCarthy took the reins for the first two games of this season, and the results were mixed -- in extreme fashion. Essentially, the 22-year-old played like a hero in one quarter (helping Minnesota steal a season-opening win at Chicago) and a zero for the remainder.

• McCarthy in Week 1's fourth quarter: 6-8, 87 pass yds, 2 pass TD, 1 rush TD, 149.5 passer rating.
• McCarthy in the other seven quarters: 18-33, 214 pass yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 1 fumble lost, 36.7 passer rating.

Now, after missing the last five games with a sprained ankle -- spawning a narrative that Minnesota could be slow-playing the young quarterback following an erratic start to the season -- McCarthy returns to the starting lineup for a road game back in the state where he won a national championship two football seasons ago. How will J.J. perform in this quasi-homecoming at Ford Field, with many Lions fans split between the grateful (Wolverine backers) and the hateful (Sparty supporters)? More directly, how will J.J. fare against former Michigan teammate Aidan Hutchinson and a Detroit defense that's been stellar at home? It feels like an uphill battle for a 22-year-old seeking his second good quarter in his third NFL game, especially if the Vikings' defense continues to disappoint.

Why Ali picked the Packers: The Panthers' three-game win streak came to an abrupt halt last Sunday, when the Bills stormed Charlotte and rocked the home team by 31 points. Dave Canales' club is now 0-3 for the year against teams that currently own a winning record -- a fact made so much worse when you consider just how uncompetitive the Panthers have been in those three contests (they were outscored 108 to 32). Having to follow up that beatdown with a trip to Green Bay, where the Packers are (conveniently) 3-0 in 2025, is the opposite of a get-right opportunity. Carolina's best hope for pulling off the upset of the year is to lean heavily on Rico Dowdle, whose 5.7 yards per carry could help to keep Jordan Love off the field and Micah Parsons off balance. Won't be easy against the Packers' third-ranked run defense. Carolina's other hope rests on Green Bay continuing its nasty habit of playing down to its opponent. (I realize how back-handed that sounds, but stay with me here.) In the Packers' five games against teams that currently sport a losing record, they have an average point differential of 3.8. That average increases to 12.0 in the two tilts against teams above .500. (We're still just eight weeks into the season, so we all have to make due with the small sample sizes.) If the Packers play to their potential, this one shouldn't be close. But will they? Or will they be on the wrong end (yet again) of the season's biggest stunner to date? I say the former -- in pattern-breaking fashion.

Why Tom picked the Broncos: Let's examine the conditions of Houston's three wins so far, working backward from the most impressive of the trio. Last Sunday, the Texans outclassed the Niners at a low point of their season, with several key players sidelined (including their starting QB). In Week 5, they steamrolled the Ravens at, you guessed it, a low point of their season, with several key players sidelined (including their starting QB). And in Week 4, they stomped a Titans team that, well, has really only known low points this year. Timing has been everything for Houston this year -- and there are a couple of timing elements that could tip things in the home team's favor this week, namely the pectoral strain that will deprive Denver of Patrick Surtain II, plus the Texans' sudden offensive reawakening. There is one fact that can be relied on like clockwork, however: The utter dominance of both defenses in this game. Which means my pick comes down to which offense I trust to do enough to survive. And even with Derek Stingley Jr. giving Houston an edge in the healthy-stud-cornerback department, I have more faith in Bo Nix's ability to scratch something out than in C.J. Stroud's ability to hold up against one of the fiercest pass rushes around.

Why Brooke picked the Patriots: The Patriots are legit. A lot of credit goes to new head coach Mike Vrabel and the strides second-year quarterback Drake Maye has taken through the first half of the 2025 season. Guiding New England to five straight wins, Maye leads the NFL in both completion percentage (75.2) and passer rating (118.7). He has unleashed a downfield passing attack that features Kayshon Boutte, who has a receiving TD of 25-plus yards in each of the last three games. Supporting that explosive offense: a Vrabel-led D that hasn't given up more than 20 points in a game since Week 3. That unit also hasn't allowed a running back to rush for 50 yards or more in a game this season. Might Bijan Robinson have something to say about that? He'll have to be better than he was against the Dolphins if Atlanta is to get back on track. Michael Penix Jr. appears to be trending toward playing, but Drake London's status (hip) seems more up in the air. Atlanta is certainly capable of knocking off the red-hot Patriots due to its stellar pass defense and the overall talent of the roster, but we haven't seen this team firing on all cylinders in a few weeks now. Therefore, I leave you with this NFL Research gem: In the four regular-season matchups in Week 9 or later since 1970 between the NFL's leader in completion percentage and passer rating (Maye) and the No. 1 pass defense entering that week (the Falcons), the quarterback won every time. The QB also went on to win the MVP award in all those seasons (Tom Brady in 2007, when he beat the top-ranked pass defense twice; Steve Young in 1992 and '94). Maye might not be able to ignore those chants for much longer.

Why Dan picked the 49ers: The Giants have won their last two games at MetLife Stadium. Unfortunately, the team's run defense has turned into a pile of goo since New York last played at home. The G-Men rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per game after being throttled for a league-high 436 yards on the ground in the last two weeks. That's 63 yards more than the next-closest team in that span. When you combine those issues with the loss of Cam Skattebo, who had become the backbone of the offense in the wake of Malik Nabers' injury, Big Blue seems to be in a tough spot. If you're looking to find reasons for optimism as a Giants fan: Aside from the win over the Falcons a couple weeks ago, the 49ers have not been able to get anything going with their run game in 2025. Also, it's very hard to win on the back end of consecutive road games -- something the Niners are facing for the third time this season. Both teams are shells of their former selves because of injuries, but ultimately, San Francisco is a little bit better on both sides of the ball.

Why Gennaro picked the Colts: Both teams surprisingly sit atop their respective divisions, but only one feels like a true contender -- and it isn't the one with six Lombardi Trophies and 21 straight non-losing seasons. In arguably the most shocking development of the 2025 campaign, Indianapolis owns the NFL's best record. It isn't a fluke, either -- not two months into the season, when we have more than enough data to tell us these Colts are for real. For traditional types, they rank first in scoring and sixth in scoring defense, boasting the league's only triple-digit point differential at +116. New DC Lou Anarumo has cranked up the defense's pressure rate to a rabid 39.9 percent (second in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats), allowing the Colts to hoover up 10 interceptions (tied for second). Meanwhile, Shane Steichen's offense is this season's most dominant unit on either side of the ball. As the only team with 20-plus points in every game, Indianapolis ranks first in traditional statistics like total offense, as well as more focused figures like points and yards per drive and nerd acronyms like DVOA and EPA. Fronted by perhaps the best O-line in football, it's an everybody-eats attack with Jonathan Taylor running his way into the MVP conversation and Daniel Jones spreading the ball around to a complementary set of pass catchers. Averaging 36.8 ppg in the month of October, Indy's become the unstoppable force -- and it's about to run into an extremely movable object. These are not your older brother's Steelers, as the league's most expensive defense ranks 22nd in points allowed and 30th in total D. Pittsburgh's last two opponents have each eclipsed 450 yards of offense. I don't think this will be the unit that turns Steichen's buzzsaw into a pumpkin.

Why Tom picked the Chargers: The Titans' best chance here is to somehow rewind the Chargers back a couple of weeks, to a point when injuries and poor play brought them down against fringe squads like the Giants. Or maybe it's to somehow fast-forward Jeffery Simmons to a point when he's healthy? Either way, some kind of metaphysical chicanery will probably be necessary if Tennessee is to hang with a team that is gaining 130 more yards and scoring 10 more points per game this season. The injuries in Los Angeles' secondary could give Cam Ward and Co. a chance to put together a few solid drives, but I'm not sure how the Titans would be able to keep up with Justin Herbert, who has crucial support working around him once more. The Bolts have just one blowout victory -- by a margin of two touchdowns or more -- so far in 2025, but it would not be surprising to see them enjoy one of those stress-free Sundays that come along too rarely for this franchise.

Why Gennaro picked the Saints: Did Spencer Rattler truly deserve this benching? Committing six turnovers in the last two weeks was rough, to be sure, but in the grand scheme of the Saints' 1-7 start, the second-year pro was far from New Orleans' biggest problem. For the most part, I was pleasantly surprised by his play. Kellen Moore was not, clearly, making the switch to Tyler Shough and stressing on Wednesday that the team plans to roll with the second-round pick for the rest of the season. That pursuit begins with a true baptism by fire for the first-year signal-caller, with a cross-country trip to face an imposing Rams team fresh off the bye. Los Angeles' defensive calling card? A young, monstrous front that terrorizes opposing quarterbacks, with edge menaces Jared Verse and Byron Young stalking prey like Michael Myers and Jason Voorhees. Happy Halloween, Mr. Shough! The Saints haven't had a rookie quarterback win a game in 44 years. That's the longest drought in the NFL -- and I don't see it ending on Sunday against a Rams defense that racked up seven sacks last time out. I also have a feeling we haven't seen the last of Rattler this season.

Why Ali picked the Jaguars: The Jags and Raiders emerge from the bye hoping to remove the stink from their respective Week 7 blowouts. Both also look to keep pace in an ultra-competitive AFC playoff race, which has seen the cream rise to the top (excuse my coach-speak). Simply put, Vegas has to have this one. Reinforcements, in the form of Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, should help beleaguered QB1 Geno Smithand the Raiders' 27th-ranked passing attack, which in turn should open up lanes for Ashton Jeanty. If not, well, we saw what that looked like a couple weeks ago, when Vegas mustered just 30 offensive plays in Kansas City. The Jags are far from flawless themselves, struggling to generate and prevent pressure, while seeing their turnover tally stagnate (they still rank second despite zero takeaways over their last two games) and their penalty count continue to rise. So, two imperfect teams, both desperate to get back in the win column. While I don't think either squad will look as poor as it did last time out, I think the Jags' overall talent advantage will allow them to overcome their inevitable self-inflicted errors in a way Liam Coen's team couldn't when it was routed by the Rams two weeks ago. Don't be surprised if this one is messy and seesaws throughout.

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: A clear pattern has emerged between these two AFC heavyweights, with the Bills beating the Chiefs in four straight regular-season games and Kansas City eliminating Buffalo in four straight playoff matchups. I think the streak -- at least the regular-season one -- snaps this time around. The Chiefs are the only team with a top-five total offense and defense right now. Patrick Mahomes has clearly been the best QB in the NFL since Week 4. Meanwhile, shockingly, Josh Allen has the league's lowest passer rating on deep passes in 2025 (29.4, min. 15 deep attempts) and Buffalo lost at home in its only game against a team with a winning record (Patriots in Week 5). It gets worse, as the Bills will be without DT Ed Oliver, the engine of their defense, as he recovers from a torn bicep suffered in last week's win over the Panthers. The reigning MVP is capable of putting the team on his back, even against the toughest competition, but I see an advantage for the Chiefs that is too significant for me to ignore.

Why Tom picked the Seahawks: Because, for the moment, fortune is smiling on the team that paid a top-of-the-market price for a rehabilitated QB and giving a big ol' frowny face to the team that reached the NFC title game last season. Which brings me to this recent quote from Bobby Wagner: "Last year was last year -- the things that happened last year are gone." Is it a too-pat answer to the question posed by this ESPN.com article exploring what's gone screwy for Wagner's Commanders? Sure. But he ain't wrong! Last year really was last year. Unlike in 2024, things are mostly clicking for the mostly healthy Seahawks. And the Commanders are dealing with the kinds of injuries they largely avoided during Jayden Daniels' magical rookie season -- including to Daniels himself. The QB's return -- which seems likely at this point -- will basically determine Washington's viability, especially with Terry McLaurin sidelined again. The Seahawks still haven't had their legitimacy as contenders fully tested, but the Commanders are so undermanned, I don't think we're going to get that moment of truth on Sunday night, even if Daniels is back out there.

MONDAY, NOV. 3

Why Brooke picked the Cowboys: Kyler Murray's return to action is expected against the Cowboys, and he's facing some serious pressure from backup QB Jacoby Brissett (who elevated the Cardinals offense in his two games as the starter) and the organization to perform. Fortunately, Kyler gets one of the best remedies the schedule-makers could provide in 2025: the Dallas defense. That unit has been a sieve, allowing 31.3 points and 404.6 yards per game (both 31st in the NFL). It ranks last on third down and bottom five in the red zone. A couple things that help Dallas: The Cowboys have an elite version of Dak Prescott under center right now, and they are at home on Monday. If they do need to keep pace with the Cardinals -- I'm not so certain we'll get to that point -- the 'Boys have the comfort of knowing they've put up 40-plus points in each of their three games at AT&T Stadium. Brian Schottenheimer's frustration is valid because Dallas is running out of time. Fortunately, the team gets the benefit of facing a struggling foe that's lost its last five games by a combined 13 points. I might feel differently if this game were taking place in the desert, but I'll take the Cowboys to improve their record to 4-0 against teams currently sitting below .500.

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