The Black and Blue division is back.
The NFC North rolled through the 2024 regular season, combining for the best winning percentage (.662) for a division in NFL history. The four clubs combined for a +384 scoring differential and 45 victories (AFC West was next closest with 40 combined wins).
It took until Week 18 for a 15-win Lions club to take the top seat for the second consecutive year. Heck, the Packers won 11 games and finished third.
Yes, it all went belly-up in the postseason, but a series of one-and-done affairs does not undo the gauntlets that each ran through.
Given the increased schedule difficulty in 2025, will the NFC North remain the top division in football? At the very least, it might be the most competitive. It wouldn't be a stunner if any of the teams finished first. Case in point: You can legitimately make a case for or against each of the four clubs winning the division with a straight face.
The case for Chicago winning the division: Perhaps if management had yanked off the band-aid last year instead of spending 2024 with essentially a lame-duck coach, only to watch its season implode swiftly, there would be a much different vibe around Chicago. Better late than never. Last season, the Bears disintegrated despite boasting a talented roster. Now, they've imported a first-time head coach who comes from a program proven to extract every ounce of talent from its players. Ben Johnson's arrival is the No. 1 reason the Bears could flip the script from worst to first in the NFC North. As a play-caller in Detroit, Johnson had defenses petrified. His pulse on managing a game is Sean Payton-esque. As far as head-coaching upgrades go, moving from Matt Eberflus to Johnson is about as big a boost as a team can take in one offseason.
The addition of Johnson should ease the concerns about Caleb Williams after a rocky first season. The former No. 1 overall pick might not have been out-of-the-box dominant, but there were enough flashes to justify his standing. Johnson should help give the young passer more answers and even out the valleys that plagued him last year. With weapons galore in the passing game -- DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Olamide Zaccheaus, Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet -- Williams should have someone who can win each snap. With Johnson's creativity, Chicago could be in for its best passing season of all time.
Bringing in O-line veterans Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson immediately upgraded the weakest part of the roster. There is some risk here -- especially given Jackson's injury history (he hasn't played a full regular season since 2020) -- but that gamble is preferable to the alternative. The Bears have been trying to get by paper-macheting the offensive line. Now they have some actual sturdy protectors.
The talent in Chicago last season was greater than what we typically see on your average five-win club. It shouldn't be any surprise to see this core turn it around in the first season under Johnson.
The case against Chicago: What if Johnson was simply a good play-caller but fails in the big chair? We've seen successful offensive coordinators struggle with the transition in the past -- Josh McDaniels, Cam Cameron, Adam Gase, Marty Mornhinweg. Thus far, Johnson has said and done all the right things, but there is always a chance things could crumble in the crucible of the season. What if Williams struggles out of the gate and Johnson can't reel things in? What if injuries strike, and he doesn't have answers? Being the play-caller can help alleviate some of those concerns, but it's not as if Johnson has proven himself to be a wizard in multiple stops.
The defense added Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo this offseason, but there are depth questions, particularly in the secondary. Defenses can be up and down from year to year, and Chicago could crumble if injuries strike key players like Montez Sweat or Jaylon Johnson.
The Caleb question is another significant piece of the puzzle. While I anticipate Johnson's arrival being the best antidote for what ills the young passer, it's possible he never becomes that franchise-changer. What if the Chicago curse is real? It might take more than nine months under Johnson to get things in gear. If Williams struggles and the offense sinks, the Bears won't have a shot to climb the NFC North ladder.
The case for Detroit winning the division: Yes, the Lions lost a lot of smart, talented coaches. But the talent on the field remains exceptional. They still boast the NFL’s best backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Sonic and Knuckles are Detroit's identity, and I expect new OC John Morton to lean into them even more in 2025. The weapons on offense are excellent, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta returning. If Jamo makes another leap, becoming a consistent player on intermediate routes and gobbling up YAC, this offense goes to the next level -- I don't care who is or isn't calling plays. It stung Detroit that Ben Johnson left for Chicago, but it's not as if these studs were simply a product of his calls. Teams don't win 15 games in a season and then forget how to play. If Jared Goff continues to be a plus under center and avoids the compounding mistakes, the offense will still flourish.
The injuries on defense can't continue, right? The Lions lost pretty much every significant front-seven player for at least a chunk of last season and still kept it together before the playoff collapse. Getting Aidan Hutchinson back immediately boosts the D. The secondary could be scary good if everyone stays on the field. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are arguably the best safety duo in the league. Adding D.J. Reed was a brilliant signing. If Terrion Arnold makes a Year 2 leap after improving down the stretch as a rookie, the secondary could be a lockdown unit. We'll see how aggressive new DC Kelvin Sheppard is, but there is talent, particularly on the back end. Even if the Lions offense takes a step backward, the defense could flip the script if everyone returns to form and stays healthy -- although another pass rusher would be helpful.
The focus in Detroit is on the coaches lost: Johnson defecting to a division rival; Aaron Glenn and Tanner Engstrand to the New York Jets. Not enough attention is on the coach who remains: Dan Campbell. This is the season that the man in charge can prove HIS program can withstand attrition. When things looked bleak for Campbell in 2022, he changed offensive coordinators and spearheaded the greatest turnaround in club history. With questions swirling, the coach can prove he's in complete control of this Ford vehicle.
The case against Detroit: Brain Drain is real. Johnson was a sorcerer in how he constructed his offensive game flow. He knew the perfect time to call that trick play to break an opponent's back. He might take some grief for how he managed the playoff loss, but the totality of his run as OC far outweighs a single game. What does Morton bring to the table? In his lone season as an NFL play-caller (New York Jets, 2017), his offense ranked 24th in points and 28th in yards. If things don't click for Morton, particularly with Goff, the offense could take a step back from its soaring high.
Glenn kept things together despite a hellacious string of injuries. Could Sheppard replicate that if the issues persist?
Frank Ragnow's retirement stung. Detroit likely hoped it would have at least one season to prepare rookie Tate Ratledge for the full-time gig, which would have been a similar transition to the one Ragnow made, moving from guard to center early in his career. You simply don't seamlessly replace a player of Ragnow's caliber in the middle of an offense. The Lions were likely going to be very young in the middle of the offensive line regardless this season. Now, they could be uber green, particularly if soon-to-be 33-year-old Graham Glasgow doesn't bounce back from a subpar 2024. With a pocket QB like Goff under center, the middle of the line is paramount. Right now, the Lions' is a big question mark. Coming off a woeful playoff game, if Goff struggles out of the gate, those once-celebrated Ja-Red GOFF chats in Detroit could turn.
Coming off a 15-win season, the Lions are tied for the second-most difficult schedule in the NFL based on their opponents' 2024 winning percentage. SOS isn't always the best offseason indicator of future success or failure. However, just look at the QBs the Lions are slated to face during their gauntlet: Patrick Mahomes (on the road), Lamar Jackson (road), Joe Burrow (road), Jalen Hurts (road), Jayden Daniels (road), Matthew Stafford (road), Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love (twice), Caleb Williams (twice), J.J. McCarthy (twice), Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson (or Jaxson Dart), and whoever wins the Browns QB battle. It's difficult to beat good-to-great quarterbacks week in and week out. Detroit faces at least a handful of MVP-candidate QBs this season, particularly early in the schedule.
The case for Green Bay winning the division: The Packers went 11-6 last season and made the playoffs, yet based on the offseason narratives, you'd have thought they had bottomed out and fired their coach. If 11-6 is a down year under Matt LaFleur, that's a pretty good baseline. Yes, the 2024 season wasn't exactly pretty, but they still handled business against the teams they were supposed to beat. The ugliest part was a 1-5 record in the division. Flip one or two of those games, and it's a different conversation.
The narrative surrounding Jordan Love has devolved to the point that he's had to defend himself this offseason. Playing injured for much of the season, Love's metrics, particularly on early downs, were comparable to that of top-tier signal-callers. The QB was also the victim of 23 dropped passes, per Next Gen Stats (fifth-most in the NFL). It's not hyperbole to suggest that if his wideouts had not flubbed a few balls in big spots, both Love's counting statistics and the Packers' record would look different. With the addition of first-rounder Matthew Golden and other wideouts potentially taking a stride forward, the passing attack is poised to improve. There is enough evidence to believe Love is on an upward trajectory entering Year 3 as a starter. That alone should bring optimism the Packers can regain the division crown for the first time since 2021.
Jeff Hafley's arrival helped turn around a habitually underperforming defense. The Packers finished sixth in points allowed and fifth in yards allowed. The last time Green Bay was inside the top 10 in both categories was 2010. The group was particularly solid in coverage, with Xavier McKinney leading the back end. If Hafley can coax better pressure from his front -- and Lukas Van Ness finally lives up to his draft status -- the unit could be a dangerous crew for the opposition.
The case against Green Bay: What if Love is just a mid-level starter? I tend to believe his flashes suggest he has another level to his game, but until he silences the critics with a deep postseason run, he'll forever be compared unfavorably to Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Those are the perils of following two greats in Green Bay. If Love gets injured again or devolves into a chuck-it-up INT machine, the Packers' shot at the division will go out the window once again.
If Golden doesn’t perform like a WR1, the Packers will be right back in the same boat they were in a year ago, with a cavalcade of good-but-not-great receivers surrounding Love. Without a field-tilting receiver, Green Bay’s offense can be slowed. There are also questions about whether the offensive line shifts will work with Elgton Jenkins moving to center after the Packers paid a significant amount for Aaron Banks in free agency.
If Hafley's defense devolves into what it was before his arrival, the Packers could struggle to keep pace with the offenses in the division. The lack of a persistent pass rush is one issue, but an inability to consistently slow the run could be a killer. Green Bay might also be counting on Keisean Nixon to play at a CB1 level after parting with Jaire Alexander.
The case for Minnesota winning the division: General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah earned his contract extension. The Vikings have a loaded roster with talent at every level on both sides of the ball. Minnesota identified a weakness in the trenches last year and addressed it this offseason. Adding Ryan Kelly, Will Fries and rookie Donovan Jackson upgrades the interior O-line after last year's crew got pushed around. The additions should not only aid quarterback J.J. McCarthy but open more holes for Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason in the ground game, too. On D, it snagged linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Sure, the two are a bit longer in the tooth, but when healthy, they can be a dangerous duo.
The Vikings defense under Brian Flores can get after opponents, and the DC has particularly been adept at rattling QBs early in the season. Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel are terrors off the edge. Minnesota produced last year despite getting relatively little from 2024 first-rounder Dallas Turner. Imagine if Turner becomes a force in Year 2.
We already knew Kevin O'Connell was a quarterback whisperer. The coach wrote his magnum opus last year, turning Sam Darnold from a washout to a Pro Bowler. O'Connell's ability to get the most out of his talent at the most difficult position in sports, regardless of who is under center, provides confidence that the Vikings can overcome McCarthy's greenhorn status.
The final reason to believe in Minnesota is simple: the presence of All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson.
The case against Minnesota: McCarthy is a great unknown. Ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, there were questions about whether the Michigan quarterback could carry a prolific offense, given it wasn't something he was asked to do under Jim Harbaugh. McCarthy always seemed to nail the one pass he needed every game in the march to a national title, but could he make eight or 10 plays like that every week? We received no answers last year after he missed the entire campaign due to a knee injury. For now, everything McCarthy-centric is a projection. Projections often fail to translate accurately from the paper to the field. If he struggles with the pacing of the NFL game in his first real action against starters, the rest of the roster might not be able to make up for it.
Beyond McCarthy, there are not a ton of roster or coaching holes, but the Vikings are thin on the back end and could use another veteran corner. Mekhi Blackmon is coming off an ACL tear and is penciled in for a significant role. There is also the lack of an obvious third safety in Flores' scheme. Then there is this on offense: What if Christian Darrisaw doesn't bounce back to his stalwart self after last year's knee injury?
