Last season, the NFL enjoyed a running back renaissance. Derrick Henry ran for 1,921 yards and a league-best 16 touchdowns for the Ravens. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley transformed the Eagles' offense, providing a historic regular season (averaging a stunning 125.3 rushing yards per game to become the ninth member of the 2,000-yard club) and transcendent postseason (adding 499 ground yards and five touchdowns en route to the Lombardi Trophy). And yet, neither RB received even one first-place vote for league MVP. Barkley, who got one second-place nod, finished third overall in the voting, well behind the winner (Josh Allen) and runner-up (Lamar Jackson). Barkley and wideout Ja'Marr Chase, who achieved the receiving triple crown, were the only non-quarterbacks to finish in the top 11. That wasn't surprising -- the last non-QB to win the award was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Alas, the MVP is very much a quarterbacking award now -- and mostly, it's hard to quibble with that. No single player on any team impacts the outcome of games week in and week out more than the quarterback, although Barkley's performance was certainly worthy of the conversation it generated last season. Needless to say, the top signal-callers in the league -- Allen, Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow -- are the favorites to take home the hardware this season and will likely get strong consideration every season in which they are healthy.
Not all quarterbacks are created equal, though, and some of them fall into the dark-horse category of contenders, along with a handful of their non-QB contemporaries.
Here's an early look, in alphabetical order, at those early dark horses to receive serious consideration for the top individual award in 2025.
After Barkley's extraordinary effort in 2024, it's hard to imagine what more the 28-year-old back could do to bolster his candidacy in 2025. But something close to a repeat performance would at least reinforce how unique he is, even among the NFL's best players, and how invaluable he is to one of the league's elite teams. What other definition of Most Valuable Player is there?
Another case of a player who could hardly do any more to get some support, much like Barkley, as well as fellow wideout Justin Jefferson coming off the 2022 season. Chase got a few fourth- and fifth-place votes last season, when he had one of the all-time great years by a receiver, leading the league in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and receiving touchdowns (17). His longtime connection with Burrow is special, so Chase's numbers should be there again this season. He, like Burrow, would get more recognition if the Bengals could win more games.
He might not even be that much of a dark horse. Daniels got a handful of fourth- and fifth-place votes last season, in which he was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year. With an improved offensive line, the addition of Deebo Samuel and a year of NFL experience under his belt, Daniels is positioned to ascend to the top tier of quarterbacks. If he does, and if the Commanders make another playoff push, Daniels will get plenty of attention.
He got third-, fourth- and fifth-place votes in 2024. Detroit has a new play-caller in John Morton, who has already said he doesn't plan to change much for one of the most complete, explosive offenses in the game. Still, after the free-agent exit of Kevin Zeitler and the sudden retirement of Frank Ragnow, the team must resettle the interior of the offensive line, which was one of the best units in the league in 2024. If the Lions win like they did last season, Goff will almost certainly again deserve serious consideration.
Another quarterback who got a handful of votes last year, Herbert might have to overcome Jim Harbaugh's desire to lean on the running game more. But the addition of rookie receiver Tre Harris could help shore up one of the biggest question marks on the team. Herbert is as dazzling a quarterback as there is in the NFL, and Harbaugh loves him. If the Chargers challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West, Herbert should get more than just a scant few votes.
Perhaps the darkest of dark horses on this list, Hunter mans two positions, but neither is quarterback. Still, how do you ignore a player who could do something rarely seen in the NFL: play both ways and have a significant impact at both receiver and cornerback? Key to whether the reigning Heisman Trophy winner garners any votes will be how big his numbers at receiver are, and how much the Jaguars use him on defense.
The reigning Super Bowl MVP, Hurts was uneven last season but finished second in MVP voting in 2022. He has plenty of weapons in the passing game -- A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert -- but with so much of the offense running through Barkley, Hurts might not be able to amass the type of statistics that draw the attention of MVP voters, despite leading one of the NFL's best teams.
His production dipped in 2024, in part because of injury, but also due to the presence of Pro Bowl RB Josh Jacobs. If he plays more like he did in his first season as the starter (4,159 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions) and the Packers win a few more games (they won just nine that year), Love should be back to a level to get noticed.
Often overlooked, Mayfield got two fifth-place votes last season, but he deserves deeper consideration. The Buccaneers had a top-five offense in 2024, and Mayfield completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. This season, he will throw to receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka. Mayfield will have to overcome two things to get more serious consideration. He will have his third play-caller in as many seasons with the Buccaneers, after Liam Coen left to become the Jaguars' head coach. (New OC Josh Grizzard was the passing game coordinator last year in Tampa.) And then there's the fact that the Bucs play in the NFC South, considered one of the weakest divisions in the game. Thus, the schedule might not be littered with marquee matchups, though Tampa does have games against Philadelphia, Detroit and Buffalo.
Stroud endured a sophomore slump last season, but that was in part due to a poor offensive line and a terrible string of injuries to his wide receivers. The O-line has been overhauled, and Houston invested in wide receivers in the offseason. If the line jells, Stroud should regain the form he had in 2023, when he was the Offensive Rookie of the Year and got a handful of MVP votes.
