12 early NFL winners and losers: Who's soaring, who's sinking after six weeks?

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

• Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
• Most intriguing game of Week 7
• Way-too-early MVP rankings

But to kick things off, the biggest winners and losers six weeks into the season ...

Week 6 of this NFL campaign reiterated something that can't be ignored: The league is as wide open as it's ever been. There may be some teams that end up being called dominant by the time the postseason arrives, but that isn't what we're seeing today. There are simply a lot of good-to-very-good teams right now. Most are vulnerable to enduring their own struggles, depending on the day.

The good news is that it makes for a wildly entertaining few months. It also makes it more fun to write this column. In fact, this feels like a great time to dust off a conversation about winners and losers for this edition of The First Read. Six weeks into the 2025 season, here's who made the cut …

WINNERS

1) Baker Mayfield: It's been a tough job figuring out who should be the early leader for the MVP award, but that's no longer an issue. Mayfield has made his case early and often, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback might just be holding that trophy when the season ends. There are quarterbacks with more accomplishments. There are quarterbacks with better numbers. However, nobody is playing the position more deftly -- or doing more for his team -- than Mayfield. The Buccaneers have dealt with numerous offensive line injuries. They've been playing without running back Bucky Irving and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka also sustained a hamstring injury in Sunday's win over San Francisco). And yet, here the Bucs are, sitting at 5-1 after another dramatic victory. That's because Mayfield has been that good, that clutch, that inspirational of a leader. It doesn't matter who is suiting up next to him these days. He's going to make enough plays to help his team get a win. Because of Mayfield, the Buccaneers were the first team in history to have four wins by three points or less in their first five games. Now, he has thrown 12 touchdown passes this season while turning the ball over once. And the biggest thing he gives Tampa Bay is attitude. You can see it when he rises from a first-down scramble or hits a deep shot after taking a huge hit from a free blitzer. Mayfield is playing with the kind of confidence and bravado that made him a cult hero in college. It's also made him this league's best player through the first six weeks of this season.

2) Mike Vrabel: The New England Patriots are an emerging presence in the AFC, and it's because Vrabel is proving once again that he knows how to coach. The same man who turned around the Tennessee Titans in his first head-coaching stop is using a similar formula with the franchise where he made his name as a player. Vrabel loves a feisty defense that plays smart and takes the football away. That's what he's building in New England. His special teams units were difference-makers in Tennessee, and you're seeing that same thing happen with the Patriots. Punt returner Marcus Jones and kick returner Antonio Gibson have both won AFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors this fall. But what really has people high on the Patriots is the potential of second-year quarterback Drake Maye. He's continued to showcase the traits that make for effective franchise quarterbacks. Vrabel never had a talent like this under center in Tennessee.

There was some buzz that New England could mature into a playoff contender when training camp started, likely because upstarts emerge every year. Now, the Patriots are looking more like the real deal with each passing week. After beating New Orleans on Sunday, the Pats have won three straight games. The biggest of those victories obviously was a Week 5 win at Buffalo, when the Patriots forced three turnovers and Maye produced some electric plays. The schedule also is working in Vrabel's favor. New England will face six teams over the next six seven that don't have a winning record at publishing, starting with a return to Tennessee next Sunday. It's not hard to understand why the Titans fired Vrabel in January of 2024, as they posted two losing seasons in his final two years. What's more difficult to grasp, especially after the way he's led New England to a 4-2 record, is why he spent last season without a head coaching job. He really is that good.

3) Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo: Anybody who watched the Giants' Week 3 loss to Kansas City saw a team that was reeling and headed for disaster. The rookie duo of Dart and Skattebo has altered all those negative vibes over the past three weeks. It hasn't all been pretty -- the Giants did lose to the Saints in Week 5 -- but these two first-year players have placed their fingerprints all over recent victories over the Chargers and Eagles. Both those teams should be playing in the postseason, which is why there should be so much excitement about the energy Dart and Skattebo have brought to New York. Of course, Dart was the player who created the most hype after the team selected him in the first round of this year's draft. Head coach Brian Daboll's initial plan was to play Russell Wilson long enough to allow Dart time to grow, but that imploded with Wilson's ineffectiveness. Dart has proven to be a quick learner, but he's also impressed with his moxie and improvisational ability. The guy just has an innate feel for how to make a play at the right time. Skattebo, a fourth-round pick, is exactly what he was in college at Arizona State. He treats every carry like his life depends on it, and he looks like the kind of rusher Vince Lombardi would've coached. It's not hard to see why he's pushed his way into the job of lead runner. It would be a cute story if Dart and Skattebo only had that Week 4 win over the Chargers to celebrate. Last Thursday's victory over Philadelphia told a different story, as Dart passed for 195 yards and ran for 58, while Skattebo added 98 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Giants might be a season away from contending for a playoff spot. But you also can see a much brighter future ahead today, and that's all because of these two rookies.

4) Mike Tomlin: The Steelers head coach came into this season with a team that faced some real questions. What kind of play could Pittsburgh expect from 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers? Could a defense relying on four veterans who are at least 30 years old stay healthy? Were there enough playmakers on offense? Well, none of that matters today because the AFC North is a complete mess. Tomlin's team is far from dominant, but it's currently 4-1 after Sunday’s win over Cleveland and in great position to run away with this division. The Baltimore Ravens have only one victory and are struggling with all sorts of injuries. The Cleveland Browns have two rookies at the top of their quarterback depth chart, and the one who opened the year as the starter, Joe Flacco, now has that job in Cincinnati due to Joe Burrow's turf toe surgery and Jake Browning's poor play. The Steelers have a middling offense, a below-average defense ... and every reason to think they're going to end up with 11 to 12 wins. Tomlin might not take this team far in the playoffs, but Pittsburgh will be there again. Count on it.

5) Rico Dowdle: The Carolina Panthers thought so highly of Dowdle in the first month of the season that he totaled 83 yards on 28 carries over the team's first four games. You must mention those numbers when talking about Dowdle today because he's suddenly become the league's most productive back after such a humble start. He ran for 206 yards in a Week 5 win over Miami after a calf injury sidelined starter Chuba Hubbard. Dowdle followed that performance by generating a franchise-record 239 scrimmage yards in Sunday's victory over Dallas while Hubbard sat out again. Dowdle now has a team record 473 scrimmage yards over the last two games, making him the seventh player in league history to post consecutive games with 200 or more scrimmage yards. Dowdle didn't hide the fact that Sunday's meeting with the Cowboys was personal. He spent his first four seasons with Dallas and ran for 1,079 yards last year before the team let him walk in free agency. He wanted to alert the Cowboys to what they let go -- he told reporters that Dallas better “buckle up” coming into Sunday's contest – and he delivered. Dowdle has been so good that the Panthers now have a legitimate question on their hands: How do they make the most of him moving forward? Head coach Dave Canales made it clear in his postgame comments that Dowdle will have a larger role in the offense moving forward, even though Hubbard signed a four-year, $33.2 million extension last November. The Panthers just improved to 3-3. Quarterback Bryce Young is playing at a higher level with a stronger run game. However Canales handles the workload, it's clear Dowdle has used good timing to turn himself into a rising star.

6) Nik Bonitto: The Denver Broncos might end up becoming the first team to have back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year winners if Bonitto keeps this up. He leads the league with eight sacks -- seven of which have come in his last four games -- and he's primed to do more damage on a Broncos defense that has started to find its groove. All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II was the star of this unit last season, when he earned DPOY honors. Bonitto enjoyed his own breakout campaign in 2024, as he totaled a career-high 13.5 sacks and a spot on the second-team All-Pro defense. The reason Bonitto is likely to gain even more attention this season is that Denver sorely needs this defense to play at a high level to be serious championship contenders. Second-year quarterback Bo Nix has dealt with some predictable struggles now that opposing teams have more film on him. The Broncos also must contend with quarterbacks like Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and the Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert if they want to claim the AFC West crown. These are the kinds of opponents that will give Bonitto the opportunity to shine in much the same way he has over the past month. The Broncos started slowly, with two losses in their first three games. They've now ripped off three straight wins and improved to 4-2 because of the way that defense played in a 13-11 win over the Jets in London on Sunday. When a team racks up nine sacks in a game, people take notice. And with as much talent as Denver as on defense, it's going to be easy to recognize the way Bonitto is impacting games.

7) AFC South: There used to be one consistent question about this division over the last few years: Was it the worst in football or did that honor belong to the NFC South? After all, every team in the AFC South has had a top-five pick in the draft since 2023, and Tennessee had the first overall selection back in April. Well, that narrative is a lot different today. The Indianapolis Colts have turned Daniel Jones into the latest quarterback to resurrect himself and currently have a 5-1 record. The Jacksonville Jaguars had four wins in 2024, and they already have four victories in six games this season. The Houston Texans are turning things around following a 0-3 start. They've won their last two games and boast the best scoring defense in the league. This doesn't feel like a fluke, either. All these teams are well-coached and blessed with good quarterbacks and disruptive defenses. They'll all be in the playoff conversation come January.

LOSERS

1) John Harbaugh: Harbaugh isn't the reason for the Ravens' struggles. He's simply the man guiding a ship that is sinking in shocking fashion. Baltimore was supposed to be contending for a championship this year, as it had the roster and the pedigree to make a deep run. This team started last season 1-2 and finished with a 12-5 record. It was the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs in 2023 before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. This year has been totally different for Harbaugh's squad, and there are no clear answers in sight. Yes, the Ravens will look better when their health improves. But we also don't know exactly when quarterback Lamar Jackson will return from a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the past two games (the hope is that he'll be playing again after next week's bye). There also is no guarantee that the defense will improve late in the season, as it did in 2024. That unit was struggling to slow teams down before it started losing key defensive players. The Ravens currently sit at 1-5 and they've given up at least 37 points in four of those contests. As much as a softer schedule will help after the bye week, a postseason berth is going to be harder to nab without some good fortune. The AFC is suddenly filled with surprise playoff contenders, including Jacksonville, Indianapolis and New England. The Steelers already have a sizable lead in the AFC North, and they get the same benefit of playing the Bengals and Browns, as well. Oh yeah -- only one team has started 1-5 and made the playoffs since the NFL went to 14 teams and that was the 2020 Washington Commanders. As good as Harbaugh has been in his 18 years in Baltimore, he needs some miracles for this season to turn around.

2) Dallas Cowboys defense: The Dallas defense isn't merely bad. It's become comical with each passing week. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 30.7 points through six games. They just lost to Carolina by a score of 30-27 and watched Dowdle dominate them almost single-handedly. It's worth imagining what Dallas would look like if it had a defense to go along with an offense that is lighting it up despite an assortment of injuries. The problem is that it would be a waste of time. Opponents have hit the Cowboys defense with explosive plays and gashed them on the ground. And as easy as it is to point to the ineffective schemes of coordinator Matt Eberflus, owner Jerry Jones bears responsibility as well. When Jones sent linebacker Micah Parsons to Green Bay, Dallas lost its best playmaker on that side of the ball. We can talk about how bad the Cowboys were last season with Parsons -- when they ranked 31st in points allowed -- but at least he could make some plays consistently. This team can't even say that at the moment.

3) Justin Fields: Whatever high hopes the Jets had for Fields as their quarterback should be fading. This team fell to 0-6 with Sunday's 13-11 loss to Denver, and Fields played the worst game of his brief tenure with this franchise. We all can agree that the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, maybe the best when they're playing at their finest. That still doesn't excuse Fields throwing for 45 yards and taking nine sacks in a contest decided by two points. The same problems that have dogged him throughout his career reemerged again -- slow processing, holding the ball too long -- and it's fair to wonder if things are about to get worse. It's not that Fields has been horrible all year. He was solid in one-score losses to Pittsburgh and Miami. It's that we've seen this movie before with him. He had decent numbers through six games as a starter with the Steelers in 2024 -- a 65.8 completion percentage to go along with five touchdowns and one interception -- and the Steelers eventually benched him in favor of Russell Wilson. Fields now has four touchdowns and no interceptions this season. He also has another stinker on his record this year -- a three-completion, 27-yard effort in a Week 2 loss to Buffalo. That's always the issue with Fields. The lows are often unbearable. It would be one thing if his athleticism led to more dynamic plays like we saw from him in Chicago. Those types of runs aren't happening nearly as much, which is what makes the situation in New York so concerning. The Jets finished Sunday with -10 passing yards, which is the lowest total by an NFL team since 1998. Fields still has the faith of head coach Aaron Glenn, who refused to think benching his quarterback was a good idea moving forward, but it's hard to imagine there are a lot of people that still remain in that camp.

4) Kevin Patullo: The Eagles offensive coordinator will be under heavy scrutiny until this team finds a way to resolve the issues that have been building around this team. It wasn't a huge deal when the Philadelphia offense was underwhelming as the Eagles won their first four games of the season. It's a major problem now that the team isn't benefitting from fortuitous bounces on defense and blocked kicks. Patullo certainly knew what he was getting into with this job. The Eagles won a Super Bowl with current Saints head coach Kellen Moore running the offense last season. They disappointed a year earlier when Brian Johnson – who was promoted from within the staff like Patullo -- replaced Shane Steichen in the same role. Moore had enough clout and experience to lead the Eagles out of some offensive doldrums early last year because he'd been a coordinator before. This is Patullo's first shot at that job. He's received criticism because of how lame the team's passing attack was in the first few weeks (Philadelphia averaged 138 passing yards in its four games) and now he's catching heat because of how sparingly he's run the football of late (Saquon Barkley has 18 carries in the last two games). The most obvious issue here is that Philadelphia has too much talent to be this lame every week. Moore was able to ignite the offense last year by leaning heavily on Barkley. Patullo might have to do the same and then some. The Eagles were a team that simply knew how to win when they were thriving in the first month of this season. They needs to get back to remembering what it takes to move the football and score points.

5) Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins: It's been a long month for the Cincinnati star wide receivers. Ever since quarterback Joe Burrow sustained that turf toe injury in Week 2 -- one that required surgery that will keep him out until mid-December -- the Bengals have been brutal on offense. Chase and Higgins signed huge contract extensions this offseason with the idea that they would continue being the foundational pieces of a team trying to reclaim its spot among the league's championship contenders. Instead, they've suffered through four straight losses with their teammates while enduring constant frustration. Higgins has 18 receptions for 220 yards on the season. Chase has seen the ball more often (with 42 receptions for 468 yards) but he also had 73 combined receiving yards in his first two games without Burrow. The hope in Cincinnati is that new quarterback Joe Flacco can hold things down until Burrow returns. He replaced the floundering Jake Browning, and let's not forget Flacco came off the couch in 2023 to lead the Browns to a playoff appearance. There's a chance he can help Chase and Higgins be more productive. There's also a real possibility that more frustration lies around the corner for this dynamic duo.

WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES

1. Chargers over Dolphins. The Dolphins rally from a 13-point second-half deficit only to watch Justin Herbert set up the game-winning field goal by Cameron Dicker in the final seconds.
2. Panthers over Cowboys. Rookie kicker Ryan Fitzgerald ends this back-and-forth game with a 33-yard field goal as time expires.
3. Colts over Cardinals. Indianapolis uses a fourth-down stand to seal a victory in a game that improves their record to 5-1.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 7

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 7 (with DraftKings odds as of 12:30 a.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 13):

EXTRA POINT

My slowly evolving Super Bowl pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: Bills over Lions.

Previous picks:

• Week 5: Bills over Eagles
• Week 4: Bills over Eagles
• Week 3: Bills over Eagles
• Week 2: Bills over Packers
• Week 1: Ravens over Packers

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