2025 NFL playoffs: Reason for hope for seven bubble teams entering Week 14

REASON FOR HOPE: That ridiculous defense.

It was a mistake to write off the Texans after their 0-3 start because their defense really is that dominant. Houston ranks in the top 10 of every major statistical category. Only three opponents have been able to gain more than 300 yards against this bunch in 12 games, and Indianapolis just scored a season-low 16 points in Houston’s 20-16 victory on Sunday. Even those first three defeats to start the year are a little misleading. The Texans lost by a total of 13 points to three teams that all currently lead their respective divisions (the Rams, Buccaneers and Jaguars). The Texans defense has been gaining steam with each passing week, and you can see the impact it’s having on the team’s confidence. Houston lost quarterback C.J. Stroud to a concussion for three games, and the team still won all three with backup Davis Mills as the starter. The Buffalo Bills came to town two weeks ago, and quarterback Josh Allen was lucky to finish the game upright after taking eight sacks. What makes the Houston defense especially dangerous is the number of playmakers it can throw at teams from every level. The front seven can stuff the run. Edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can create all sorts of chaos when teams decide to throw. The coverage on the back end is also sticky, with Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter comprising one of the league’s top cornerback duos. This defense is even more critical as the Texans come down the stretch because that offense has too often underwhelmed against some of the league’s better teams. They'll need to score points to beat what’s left on their schedule -- they see the Chiefs this week, the Chargers in Week 17 and the Colts once again in the season-finale -- but timing is also working in Houston’s favor. Both Kansas City and Los Angeles are dealing with serious offensive line injuries, and we just saw what Houston could do to the Colts on the road. The Texans defense was able to pull this team out of a deep hole. Good fortune might be enough to help this group return to the playoffs.

REASON FOR HOPE: The AFC North.

Anybody who caught Pittsburgh’s 26-7 loss to Buffalo on Sunday had to be thinking the same thought that has haunted the Steelers all season: How is this team going to make the playoffs? The answer hasn’t changed over the last three months. The Steelers are contending for a postseason spot because they reside in a division that has stunningly become one of the worst in football. The Steelers’ best shot of reaching the playoffs involves winning the AFC North. They currently are tied for first place with the Baltimore Ravens, and those teams will meet twice over the next five weeks (starting next Sunday). Pittsburgh once seemed capable of running away with this division when the Ravens started 1-5 and the Bengals lost Joe Burrow to an early-season turf toe injury. The Steelers still have a decent shot of taking the crown even though the Ravens have pulled even with them (and hold the common-games tiebreaker). As much as Baltimore has improved, the Ravens are facing real issues with the effectiveness of quarterback Lamar Jackson. He hasn’t played well in over a month, and an assortment of injuries have slowed him down. The Ravens aren’t running away with anything if he’s not fully capable of being the player we’re accustomed to seeing. The Bengals made that apparent in pounding Baltimore by a score of 32-14 on Thanksgiving, but they’re still only 4-8 on the season. This all means the Steelers have to find a way to be more productive than what they showed in that Bills loss. Pittsburgh is dealing with an injured Aaron Rodgers, a defense that has disappointed most of the year and an overall lack of consistency. You literally don’t know what you’re going to get from the Steelers from week to week. The good news for the Steelers is that every team in the division falls into the same category. 

REASON FOR HOPE: Patrick Lavon Mahomes II.

That’s really the simplest way to explain any optimism around Kansas City these days. The Chiefs fell to 6-6 after their Thanksgiving Day loss to Dallas, and that type of defeat would be enough to clear most bandwagons around the league. After all, Kansas City is now 1-5 on the road this season and 1-6 in one-score games. But Mahomes has made a name off doing miraculous things, and it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he wills his team to the postseason after all their struggles. The reality is the Chiefs have no other choice at this stage. Their defense has been inconsistent throughout the season, as it tends to disappear in critical moments and fails to generate consistent pressure on quarterbacks. Mahomes also doesn’t have a reliable running game and his offensive line is now beat up (left tackle Josh Simmons left the loss with a broken wrist, right tackle Jawaan Taylor didn’t finish the game because of an elbow injury and Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith didn’t even play because of an ankle injury). But guess what happened on Sunday? Mahomes did enough to pull his team within three points late in the fourth quarter -- including a crazy play when he avoided a sack, stumbled and still threw a 42-yard strike to Xavier Worthy while falling to the ground -- and he finished with four touchdown passes and no interceptions in that 31-28 defeat. There’s no question he’s capable of going on a heater over the last five games, all of which the Chiefs need to win just to have a chance of reaching the playoffs. The question is whether he can do that against three of the best defenses in the league (the Texans next weekend, the Chargers after that and the Broncos on Christmas Day). Most folks would laugh at the idea of an average quarterback being asked to lead his team to victory against all those contenders in a playoff push. The people who’ve seen Mahomes play in the past are probably thinking differently. He gives them a shot. He always does.

REASON FOR HOPE: The return of Joe Burrow.

The initial prognosis when Burrow sustained his turf toe injury in Week 2 was that we likely wouldn’t see him until mid-December. Yet there he was throwing two touchdown passes in a 32-14 win over Baltimore on Thanksgiving, a victory that kept the Bengals’ flickering playoff hopes alive for the time being. Let’s be real here: Cincinnati is 4-8 and two full games behind the Ravens and Steelers with five weeks to go. The Bengals need both those teams to implode -- which is not outside the realm of possibility given what we’ve already seen with both franchises -- and Burrow to play like he did in that Ravens win. There should be no doubt that Burrow will play at a high level given how desperate Cincinnati is. He threw 13 touchdown passes and four interceptions while averaging 316 yards per game during the Bengals’ five-game win streak at the end of last season, when Cincinnati also was fighting for a playoff spot. The problem Burrow faced was he was trying to carry this team when it had a defense that ranked 25th in the league in points allowed. This year, the Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL when it comes to points and yards given up. That unit is a big reason why the Bengals blew leads in losses to the Jets and Bears that would’ve put them in a much better position to challenge Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But that didn’t happen. So yes -- it’s safe to assume Burrow will do his part. It’s also fair to think the challenge he’s facing is practically insurmountable.

REASON FOR HOPE: Pedigree.

Head coach Dan Campbell always has preached grit as the bedrock of the culture he’s built with the Lions. He wanted toughness when he was trying to teach this team how to shed losing habits, and he needs to lean on that principle now that the Lions are in real danger of missing the postseason. The Lions are a good team at 7-5, one that still has plenty of talent on offense and defense. The problem is that being good doesn’t get you very far in the ultra-competitive NFC North. Detroit went 15-2 last season and had to beat Minnesota in the season-finale to claim the division title. This time around, Chicago and Green Bay are the teams that have pushed ahead in the standings and created a real dilemma for a Lions team that has won the last two division titles. Detroit probably needs to win four of its next five games to feel safe as a playoff participant. That means it must roll through a schedule that includes the Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Vikings and Bears. That’s a daunting task on paper, but the Lions also have been through a lot under Campbell over the last few years. This team went from winning three games in its first season to nine, then 12 and finally 15 in 2024. It still possesses one of the best offenses in the league, and most of the core players remember what it was like to lose in the NFC title game in 2023. That stuff matters when you’re talking about finding ways to win meaningful games in December and January. The Lions clearly have things to sort out -- the offense, for one, hasn’t been as smooth of an operation since Campbell took over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator John Morton a few weeks ago -- but they’re not dead yet. That’s what happens when you play a lot of big games over a short period of time. You worry less about the magnitude and more about what you have to do to survive.

REASON FOR HOPE: Team chemistry.

No team in the league has been playing better than Dallas. The Cowboys rallied from a 21-point deficit to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12. They then outlasted Kansas City four days later on Thanksgiving Day with another victory that proved how much this team has grown over the past month. It wasn’t that long ago that people were snickering at a squad that could score 40 points and give up 40 points in the same game (which happened in an early-season tie with Green Bay). Today the Cowboys are dramatically different. Quarterback Dak Prescott has officially entered the MVP race with his stellar play. He’s guiding one of the best offenses in football, one that has benefited from the maturation of wide receiver George Pickens, the brilliance of fellow wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and the surprising production of running back Javonte Williams, an unheralded free-agent acquisition who’s been one of the most productive ball-carriers in the league. But the real story around Dallas is the defensive turnaround. That unit allowed at least 30 points in five of its first eight games (while surrendering at least 40 points in two of those contests). The Cowboys have now given up a total of 65 points in their last three games, largely because of new arrivals (defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson) and players returning from injuries (like linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and safeties Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker). Throw in kicker Brandon Aubrey, who possesses one of the strongest legs in the league, and you can see Dallas has plenty to throw at opponents. But let’s also appreciate how this team has bonded under first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer. He’s kept this group steady through a 3-5-1 start and the tragic death of defensive end Marshawn Kneeland. It’s clear the Cowboys are built on promise and purpose these days. The question is whether that’s enough to carry them into the playoffs with such a razor-thin margin for error.

REASON FOR HOPE: The ignorance of youth.

The more you watch the Panthers play, the more it feels like they’re your typical upstart NFL team that doesn’t know what it doesn’t know. The Los Angeles Rams just showed up in Carolina with an impressive record, a quarterback making a strong run at the league MVP award and a six-game winning streak. They wound up leaving with a 31-28 loss after Matthew Stafford committed three turnovers and Panthers quarterback Bryce Young threw three touchdown passes. Carolina was similarly unfazed when it went to Green Bay in Week 9 and earned a 16-13 win over the Packers. The Panthers aren’t a complete team by any measure. What they have is enough essential components and some talented coaching to make them a major problem when they’re dialed in. Young has played better in his third year. Running back Rico Dowdle has emerged as one of the best free-agent signings of this past offseason. Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, the team’s first-round pick, has become a leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Then there’s the defense. It’s gone from being one of the worst in the league to a solid unit, and on Sunday, it displayed a knack for timely plays. The Panthers didn’t even have star cornerback Jaycee Horn against the Rams, and they wound up intercepting Stafford, who had thrown two interceptions all season, twice (including a pick-six by Mike Jackson). The Panthers now get their bye before moving into the final four games of the schedule with a 7-6 record. Their most realistic shot of reaching the playoffs involves winning the NFC South, but they’re currently half a game behind Tampa Bay, whom the Panthers play in Week 16 and the season-finale. There’s been many times this season when it felt as if Carolina was a nice story that was going to fade eventually. It’s now time to accept that the Panthers are a good team learning a little more about themselves with each passing week. The lesson they gleaned from the Rams? That they can beat anybody when it matters most.

The 49ers head coach probably won’t get a ton of votes for Coach of the Year, but he’s done quite the job keeping San Francisco winning in 2025. As much as people might roll their eyes at a 26-8 win over Cleveland on Sunday, the reality is Shanahan’s team has kept rolling despite being decimated by injuries. He’s lost All-Pro defenders Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to season-ending injuries. Quarterback Brock Purdy has only played in five games this season because of turf toe, and San Francisco’s receiving corps has dealt with its own health problems (including the ongoing drama surrounding Brandon Aiyuk and his recovery from ACL surgery). Yet here the 49ers sit at 9-4 with a winnable game against Tennessee coming after next week’s bye. It might shock some folks that San Francisco is 4-1 in division games -- and within one victory of leading the NFC West -- despite all those setbacks. That tells you the job Shanahan has done this season has been brilliant.  

It’s becoming apparent that Chicago’s rookie running back is going to factor into whatever success the Bears enjoy moving forward. He made some noise a few weeks ago when he ran for 176 yards while filling in for the injured D'Andre Swift. Monangai was back at it on Black Friday, when he led the Bears with 130 yards rushing in an eye-opening win over Philadelphia. Chicago gashed the Eagles' vaunted defense for 281 rushing yards, which should be an indication of what head coach Ben Johnson plans to do with this offense as the battle for the NFC North intensifies. Everybody keeps waiting for second-year quarterback Caleb Williams to make a huge leap in development. Meanwhile, Johnson is building the kind of infrastructure with the combination of Monangai and Swift that can make life easier for any quarterback. 

There haven’t been too many opportunities for the Dolphins to land players on this list, so we’ll take this time to highlight what Achane has been doing. After all, Miami’s three-game winning streak has plenty to do with his play. Achane ran for 134 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries in Sunday’s win over New Orleans. He also gained 120 rush yards in a victory over Washington and 174 in a win over Buffalo that energized a Dolphins team that was 2-7 at that point. Miami doesn’t look like a team that is going to push its way back into the playoff picture, but it's a hell of a lot better than it was a month ago. Leaning on Achane has helped make that happen.

There’s been a lot of discussion about what’s been wrong with Baltimore’s star quarterback over the past month. It’s not going to stop after what transpired in a 32-14 loss to Cincinnati on Thanksgiving. Jackson committed three turnovers -- two fumbles and an interception -- and those struggles were more evidence of how mystifying his play has been lately. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in his last three games. He also hasn’t completed better than 60 percent of his pass attempts in a month. Yes, Jackson has been plagued by nagging injuries and the Ravens have found ways to fight themselves back into postseason contention after a 1-5 start. That doesn’t mean this team can sustain that success without Jackson playing better. The Ravens aren’t going anywhere until he shakes this slump.

A month ago, right before the Eagles’ bye, it seemed that Barkley was returning to dominant form with a 150-yard day against the Giants. Today it feels like it’s time to start accepting the truth about Philadelphia’s star runner: He’s not putting this team on his shoulders for the second straight season. Barkley hasn’t reached the 100-yard mark since that day. He’s averaged a stunning 3.1 yards per carry over his last four games – that number drops to 2.8 if you subtract the 56 yards he gained on 13 attempts in the Black Friday loss to Chicago -- and he hasn’t scored a touchdown in a month. Philadelphia’s offensive line injuries and the lack of creativity from offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo haven’t helped Barkley much. He’s also not doing enough to change the narrative that he’s a player suddenly in decline. 

Pittsburgh’s entire offense deserves to be knocked after a 26-7 loss to Buffalo, but Smith takes the heat today because he calls the plays. The Steelers produced 166 yards and 10 first downs against Buffalo. What’s worse is Pittsburgh became one of the few teams to make the Bills run defense look formidable. Buffalo had allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all but two games this year. The Steelers finished with 58, which was the lowest amount allowed by the Bills this season. We know Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a fractured left wrist, and the Steelers defense has been uncharacteristically disappointing all year. But Smith's offense didn’t help on Sunday.

Dallas has proven it’s a team worthy of playoff consideration with wins over Philadelphia and Kansas City over the past two weeks. Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP, the defense is vastly improved and there’s an obvious conviction to this team that didn’t exist a month ago. However, one more loss and the Cowboys' postseason dreams are practically over. Detroit is in a better place, but it's still on the outside of the playoff picture looking in right now. The same team that went 15-2 last season is struggling to find the same consistency that has been its trademark since head coach Dan Campbell turned around this franchise. The Lions also understand the NFC North is a cage match once again, with the Bears and Packers sitting ahead of them in the standings. The playoffs won’t start until January, but this contest feels like a do-or-die scenario. 

• DraftKings odds: +105
• Weeks in top five: 5
• Next game: at Cardinals | Sunday, Dec. 7

• DraftKings odds: +120
• Weeks in top five: 6
• Next game: vs. Giants | Monday, Dec. 1

• DraftKings odds: +1100
• Weeks in top five: 3
• Next game: at Lions | Thursday, Dec. 4

• DraftKings odds: +7500
• Weeks in top five: 4
• Next game: at Jaguars | Sunday, Dec. 7

• DraftKings odds: +8000
• Weeks in top five: 2
• Next game: at Falcons | Sunday, Dec. 7