Contenders and pretenders entering NFL Week 5: Which of the nine 2-2 teams can you trust?

The Cardinals are a tough call for this type of exercise. They would be more intriguing if they played in a different division. Since they’re operating in the NFC West, it’s hard to sell them as a serious threat to hit the postseason. There are too many teams in that division to think Arizona is going to magically climb over them for a playoff spot; the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks are all 3-1. It’s even harder to do that when you’re dealing with some challenging offensive problems. There isn’t much chemistry between quarterback Kyler Murray and second-year wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. A foot injury ended the season for running back James Conner in Week 3, and there aren’t enough weapons after standout tight end Trey McBride. Yeah, the defense is a little better, but that’s only going to get this team so far. The other teams in this division are a step ahead of Arizona. ASSESSMENT: PRETENDER

The good news for the Falcons is their beleaguered offense finally showed signs of life. That 34-27 win over Washington revealed a lot of what Atlanta thinks it can be. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. Running backs Bijan Robinson (181 total yards) and Tyler Allgeier scored touchdowns. Wide receiver Drake London had 110 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions. Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris had been waiting weeks for those types of numbers, so you have to hope this is a major turning point for the team. On the other hand, the Falcons already have dropped two division games, and one of those came in a 30-0 loss to Carolina. You don’t get that taste out of your mouth with one win over a Commanders team that didn’t have Jayden Daniels available. The best hope Atlanta has of reaching the playoffs involves winning the NFC South. These Falcons need to start winning division games for that to happen. ASSESSMENT: PRETENDER

The Bears are easily the most confounding team in this bunch. They have talent and good coaching, but it often feels like they’re falling short of expectations when you watch them. That’s probably just a byproduct of hype. Having the first overall pick in the 2024 draft playing quarterback (Caleb Williams) and an acclaimed offensive wizard at head coach (Ben Johnson) makes it really hard to be rational about anything this team does. A lot of people -- this writer included -- keep waiting for the fireworks to start with this offense, and it remains a slow burn. The first two weeks were rough for Chicago (a blown fourth-quarter lead against the Vikings and a 52-21 shellacking at Detroit). The wins have come over the last couple weeks, but there’s nothing overly impressive about beating Dallas or Las Vegas. The problem the Bears face is the same one most teams in the NFC will deal with this season: There are too many teams in the mix for playoff spots. Chicago certainly has the potential to get hot and qualify for the postseason. However, it’s not worth jumping on that bandwagon until a few quality wins emerge. ASSESSMENT: PRETENDER

Let’s get right to it -- Jake Browning is not doing what he did in 2023. The Bengals lost quarterback Joe Burrow to a season-ending wrist injury that season and Browning stepped in admirably. The Bengals won four of the seven games he started and remained in postseason contention until late December. Burrow is now sidelined again for an extended stretch -- surgery for turf toe will keep him out for three months – and things have gone drastically different. The Bengals already have lost both games that Browning started. The first was a 48-10 beatdown by Minnesota. The second was Monday’s 28-3 loss to Denver. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Bengals also play the Lions, Packers and Steelers over the next three weeks. That sounds like a brutal losing streak could be in the works for a team that is bad on offense, worse on defense and going nowhere fast. ASSESSMENT: PRETENDER

The Broncos are struggling to live up to the lofty expectations that followed them into this season. Bo Nix is learning how hard life can be for second-year quarterbacks after opponents have spent a full offseason studying him. Aside from running back J.K. Dobbins, the Broncos haven’t gotten a great return on investment from some of their veteran acquisitions. That defense also hasn’t showcased the same elite status it enjoyed last year. Denver blew fourth-quarter leads against the Colts and Chargers, which is why the Broncos landed in a 1-2 hole to start the year. Now for good news: The Broncos still have talent and time. They started 0-2 in 2024 and made the playoffs, and the schedule is working in their favor. After meeting Philadelphia next week, Denver will see the Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Texans and Raiders. The combined record of those teams: 4-15-1. It will be uglier than expected but Denver will turn this thing around. ASSESSMENT: CONTENDER

It was a great weekend for the Chiefs. Their offense finally shook its early-season funk and performed at the level we’re more accustomed to seeing in a 37-20 win over Baltimore. Kansas City also picked up a game in the AFC West race after the Chargers fell to the Giants in New York. If both those contests had gone the other way, then the Chiefs would’ve fallen 3.5 games behind Los Angeles. Now, Kansas City has renewed confidence and plenty of reasons to think about catching up in the division. Patrick Mahomes finally looked like himself, as he threw four touchdown passes against Baltimore. The defense stifled Lamar Jackson once again and kept a team that had been averaging 37 points a game in check. There should still be concerns about how viable the Chiefs’ running game is -- the team averaged 2.8 yards per carry when Mahomes and wide receiver Xavier Worthy weren’t carrying the ball -- but head coach Andy Reid did show more commitment to it. This was a get-right game for the Chiefs against a formidable opponent. That says a lot about where they’ll be come January, which is where they usually are. ASSESSMENT: CONTENDER

The Vikings are also waiting for their starting quarterback to return from injury, as J.J. McCarthy has missed the last two games (including Sunday’s 24-21 loss to Pittsburgh in Dublin). Some reports had McCarthy missing between two and four weeks when he sustained that high ankle sprain in Week 2. If he actually needs to miss another couple weeks -- and head coach Kevin O’Connell has given no definitive timeline -- the Vikings could survive that. They have the Browns this week in London and a bye after that. Anything past that point and it gets real sticky for Minnesota. The Vikings face the Eagles, Chargers, Lions and Ravens following the bye, marking their most grueling stretch of the season. It doesn’t matter how creative the defense is under coordinator Brian Flores or how resourceful the Vikings have been with backup quarterbacks under O’Connell. That’s a brutal gauntlet to go through without your starting quarterback. We’ll give the Vikings the benefit of the doubt here, but they better get McCarthy back soon. ASSESSMENT: CONTENDER

There are things happening in New England that you want to see at the start of Mike Vrabel’s tenure as head coach. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye has shown signs of improvement, as he’s completed 74 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions through four games. After a season-opening loss to Las Vegas, the Patriots have earned two victories over teams more in their weight class (a 33-27 win over Miami in Week 2 and Sunday’s 42-13 beatdown of Carolina). The problem is New England has never felt like a team capable of an instant turnaround. It isn’t brimming with talent, and the competition for playoff spots in the AFC is going to be fierce. You already have the usual suspects when it comes to championship contenders, a group that includes Buffalo and Kansas City. The road to the postseason for an upstart team gets even tougher when factoring in those squads that have started the year hot (which includes the Colts and Jaguars) and those that are good enough to rebound from slow starts (Baltimore, Denver and Houston). New England already looks better with Vrabel at the helm. But don’t get too crazy with this one. It’s going to take some time. ASSESSMENT: PRETENDER

The Commanders felt the absence of quarterback Jayden Daniels this past weekend. Backup Marcus Mariota was capable enough to lead this team past Las Vegas in Week 3, but the Falcons presented a different test in a 34-27 loss. The problem is that the Falcons didn’t feel like a strong challenge coming in, as their offense was averaging just 14 points a game through the first three weeks. Not only was Mariota an issue -- he only threw for 156 yards -- but Atlanta lit up the defense for 435 yards and several explosive plays. It says here that the offense will look a lot better when Daniels is back from injury, along with a couple more key performers on the unit (wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown were sidelined as well on Sunday). It’s been reported that Daniels should return for this week’s game against the Chargers. That’s when you’ll see Washington set things right. The Commanders made the playoffs last season with a mediocre defense. They can do it again. ASSESSMENT: CONTENDER

Nacua probably wasn’t a trendy pick for Offensive Player of the Year honors when this season began, but he’s the early leader now. With 42 receptions and 503 yards already -- both of which are tops in the league -- he’s trending toward 179 catches and 2,138 yards. You would think there would be no way for Nacua to maintain that pace until you look at his stat line from the Rams’ win over Indianapolis on Sunday. He had 13 receptions for 170 yards, which marked the third time in four weeks that he’s hit double-digit receptions. Davante Adams was touted as the receiver who would elevate Los Angeles' offense. It’s apparent already that Nacua is the biggest beneficiary of that addition. 

The Bills running back is doing everything possible to remind people why he was beefing with the Buffalo front office about a new deal this offseason. Cook is a huge factor in this team’s hope of winning its first Super Bowl. After rushing for 117 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s win over New Orleans, he now has three straight 100-yard games and a per-carry average of 5.8 yards in those contests. It says even more that he’s averaging nearly 21 totes per outing during that run. The Bills see the value in feeding Cook, and he’s making life much easier on Josh Allen and an embattled defense.

The Jaguars are one of the more pleasant surprises of the season, which speaks to the job Coen has been doing. Jacksonville has gone from having a top-five pick in April’s draft to sitting at 3-1 after Sunday’s win in San Francisco. It seemed to be conventional wisdom that Coen would turn around the Jaguars by helping quarterback Trevor Lawrence play better. Instead, Coen has leaned on a surprisingly disruptive defense and the running of Travis Etienne to propel his team to a fast start. There are tougher tests coming fast -- the Jags face the Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams next -- but Coen’s work has been impressive after a month.

You hate to pile on when a player is struggling, but Harrison is in a dark place that can’t be ignored. Given his draft status (fourth overall in 2024) and his bloodlines (his father, Marvin Harrison, is a Hall of Fame receiver), the expectation was that he would detonate upon the league as soon as he strapped on shoulder pads. He’s now followed a solid rookie season with a second-year start filled with drops and a lack of confidence. Harrison only has 208 receiving yards and one touchdown through four games, and he bobbled a catchable pass that turned into an interception in a Thursday night loss to Seattle. This dude has sick skills. It's a mystery as to why it’s taking so long for them to translate into consistent production.

The Browns may be looking to see what one of their young rookie quarterbacks can do sooner than expected. Flacco had three turnovers in Sunday’s loss to Detroit (two interceptions and a fumble) and he now has eight for the season. That’s more giveaways than any player in the league, and the Browns simply aren’t good enough to live in that world with their shortcomings. Flacco made sense as the starter when the season began and the other options were Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. That case simply doesn’t stand up the deeper we move into this season.

The problems for the Ravens defensive coordinator grew worse over this past weekend. It’s bad enough that Baltimore has allowed an NFL-worst 133 points thus far. Now Orr is looking at a defense that has a lot of starters dealing with some kind of injury. The Ravens watched three key members leave Sunday’s 37-20 loss to Kansas City and not return -- linebacker Roquan Smith and cornerbacks Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey -- and they put defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike on injured reserve last week, which means he’ll be out for at least three more games. Orr was able to turn around Baltimore's defense after a troubling start last year. That job looks much tougher to pull off a second time.

Tampa Bay has compiled a 3-1 record by relying heavily on some late-game heroics from quarterback Baker Mayfield and overcoming a slew of injuries to key players. Seattle also sits at 3-1 because of how it has executed in critical moments with the game on the line. The early play of quarterback Sam Darnold and a stingy defense has inspired plenty of optimism, as well. Both these teams have high hopes because of these fast starts. We’ll see who gets the better of the other.

• DraftKings odds: +110
• Weeks in top five: 4
• Next game: vs. Patriots | Sunday, Oct. 5

• DraftKings odds: +700
• Weeks in top five: 2
• Next game: vs. Commanders | Sunday, Oct. 5

• DraftKings odds: +3000
• Weeks in top five: 1
• Next game: at Bengals | Sunday, Oct. 5

• DraftKings odds: +5000
• Weeks in top five: 2
• Next game: vs. Raiders | Sunday, Oct. 5

• DraftKings odds: +650
• Weeks in top five: 4
• Next game: vs. Texans | Sunday, Oct. 5