We knew the start of NFL free agency would be crazy, and as expected, there was no disappointment. There already has been news of blockbuster trades and a bevy of big-name signings, with a few record-breaking contract extensions thrown in for good measure. It's hard to think that it was just a few hours ago -- noon ET on Monday -- that we moved into the two-day free agent negotiating period. Imagine what will have happened by the time deals -- including the trades and free-agent signings that have been agreed to -- can be made official on Wednesday.
As is the annual tradition here at The First Read, we reserve this time of the offseason to assess the winners and losers thus far. This isn't solely about what happened on Monday or even over the weekend. It's about the frenzy that has unfolded in the lead-up to free agency, and how that will impact what's coming next as the 2025 NFL season continues to draw closer.
Here's this writer's evaluation of how things currently break down ...
WINNERS
1) Sam Darnold: The Seahawks pulled the trigger on the move everyone expected to happen after they agreed to trade Geno Smith to Las Vegas: Darnold has agreed to become their new franchise quarterback. The money Darnold landed -- $100.5 million over three years -- didn't quite match what one might expect for a coveted signal-caller on the open market, but there are some notable benefits to moving west from Minnesota. The most obvious is that he'll be reunited with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who was the San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator when Darnold was a backup to Brock Purdy on that team in 2023. Darnold has credited that time in San Francisco for helping reshape his career. He's smart to link back up with a coach who understands his strengths and weaknesses. The Seahawks also clearly are reworking the core of this offense. They still need to improve the cast around Darnold: with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf exiting, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the only legitimate weapon at receiver going into 2025, while the offensive line needs help, as well. But general manager John Schneider is a savvy personnel man. The Seahawks could see that Darnold played his best last season because of smart coaching and great offensive talent, and that his performance at the end of the year revealed some warts that probably aren't going away. They've got the time and the money ($67.4 million in projected cap space, per Over the Cap, before the Darnold signing is taken into account) to acquire what he needs.
2) Whoever ends up playing quarterback in Pittsburgh: The most seismic trade agreed to so far this offseason is the one that will send DK Metcalf from the Seahawks to the Steelers. Metcalf wanted out of Seattle and the chance at a new deal with one year left on his current contract. Pittsburgh was willing to oblige, as it also agreed to hand him a five-year, $150 million extension and give Seattle a 2025 second-round pick in return. The Steelers still don't know who will be playing quarterback for them, but Metcalf gives their offense a huge boost, with his size and speed. Combine him with third-year pro George Pickens, and the Steelers now have a much better chance of creating explosive plays and opening up their dismal run game. Of course, there is a disclaimer to consider, here: Both Metcalf and Pickens are known for being emotionally volatile on the field. Whoever starts at quarterback needs the appropriate temperament and credibility to keep them in check. There are some notable options out there -- bringing in Aaron Rodgers or retaining Russell Wilson, now that Justin Fields is signing with the Jets -- but the job has to be more attractive to a quarterback now. The Steelers can do damage with Metcalf and Pickens operating together.
3) Ryan Poles: The Chicago Bears general manager has spent the last three years trying to build this team into a contender. This is the offseason when he faces the most pressure to make that happen. The Bears flopped in their first season with 2024 No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams operating as the starting quarterback, partly because they surrendered a league-high 68 sacks. Poles responded to that by aggressively rebuilding the interior of his offensive line. He secured trades for Chiefs guard Joe Thuney and Rams guard Jonah Jackson while also signing center Drew Dalman to a deal on Monday that will make Dalman the second-highest paid player at his position. The Bears still have other needs to address -- especially when it comes to finding a pass rusher -- but Poles couldn't have begun this offseason any stronger. The Bears watched the NFC North turn into the toughest division in football last year. The going won't be any easier for them in 2025 unless this rebuilt offensive line lives up to the hype.
4) Jayden Daniels: The Commanders came into this offseason with a great situation: They had the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year on the roster, plus roughly $81 million in projected salary-cap space. GM Adam Peters had the potential to make a lot of smart decisions with that money, and he did just that, agreeing to a trade for wide receiver Deebo Samuel last week, re-signing tight end Zach Ertz and agreeing to a trade for former Houston Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil on Monday. The addition of Samuel gives Daniels another proven receiver who can take pressure off Terry McLaurin and be a creative chess piece for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The return of Ertz gives Daniels that reliable intermediate target that makes life so easy for young quarterbacks. The trade for Tunsil means Daniels has one of the best left tackles in the game protecting his blind side. A few games into the 2024 season, it was obvious Daniels is destined for big things. Imagine what he'll do with more experience and a better supporting cast.
5) Andrew Berry: The Browns GM probably had his easiest night of sleep in weeks after All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett agreed to a new extension that pays Garrett an average of $40 million annually and guarantees the player $123 million in new money. Garrett demanded a trade. He'd seemingly sworn off the idea of ever playing another down in Cleveland. He begged for the chance to suit up for a team that could offer him the opportunity to reach a Super Bowl. And then he fell silent after the Browns made him the highest paid non-quarterback in league history. There's no guarantee Cleveland can do enough this offseason and in the coming years to become a consistent winner. However, the last thing Berry needed was a long-running public feud with his best player coming on the heels of all the issues that have plagued quarterback Deshaun Watson with that franchise. Garrett won with his bank account. Berry won by restoring order to his team. Next up: Figuring out a plan at QB, where trade acquisition Kenny Pickett will surely be just one piece of the puzzle, potentially along with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
6) Davante Adams: Adams left a Jets team going nowhere and got everything he wanted when the Rams signed him. He wanted to play on the West Coast (he grew up in East Palo Alto, California), and that box was checked. As a bonus, Adams wound up in an offense with a star quarterback (Matthew Stafford), an innovative play-caller (head coach Sean McVay) and a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver on the other side of the offense (Puka Nacua). It's not easy aging in this league; the 32-year-old Adams just spent the last two years playing for teams with little life (the Raiders and Jets). He now has the chance to compete for a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
7) Cornerbacks nearing the end of their rookie contracts: Carolina just reset the market at the cornerback position by giving Jaycee Horn a four-year deal worth $100 million after his first Pro Bowl season in Year 4. You can bet players like the New York Jets' Sauce Gardner, Houston's Derek Stingley Jr. and Kansas City's Trent McDuffie are dreaming about what's coming their way in the not-so-distant future.
LOSERS
1) Jerry Jones: The Dallas Cowboys owner couldn't have been pleased when he saw the Cleveland Browns giving all that money to Myles Garrett. That's because his job of signing star linebacker Micah Parsons to a new deal just became a whole lot harder. Jones spent all of last season negotiating with quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb on massive extensions, all with the specter of Parsons' financial future looming off in the distance. At 25, Parsons is about to play on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. He also has accumulated 52.5 sacks in his first four seasons and has never produced less than 12 sacks in any given year. If you thought Jones did some healthy tussling with those other stars over their deals, just wait to see how this one plays out with Parsons. It's going to hurt, big time.
2) Patrick Mahomes: The Eagles' obliteration of Kansas City in Super Bowl LIX made it clear that the Chiefs' offensive line needed some major improvements. So far, the process has taken a little time to sort out, especially after the team's reported hopes of courting Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley ended with Stanley re-signing in Baltimore. The Chiefs slapped the franchise tag on right guard Trey Smith to keep him in house while trading left guard Joe Thuney to Chicago. Kansas City is also signing former 49ers offensive tackle Jaylon Moore, who currently seems the most likely candidate to take over the left tackle job that became such a headache for the Chiefs last season. But here's the problem for Mahomes: the left side remains a huge uncertainty. Moore has been a backup behind Trent Williams for the last four years in San Francisco, which means there's no guarantee he can be an effective option. Thuney was the insurance policy the Chiefs turned to late last season, when he assumed left tackle duties with four games left in the regular season, but he's gone. There's also likely to be a competition at left guard, where failed tackle Kingsley Suamataia most recently toiled. There's still plenty of time to figure all this out, but Mahomes might not have any clarity on this until preseason action starts.
3) Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals came into this offseason with high hopes of appeasing three stars: defensive end Trey Hendrickson and wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. Unfortunately for them, it already looks like that will be a hard task, at least when it comes to Hendrickson. The Bengals already had given Hendrickson the right to pursue a trade, mainly because he wants a new deal. The pact that Myles Garrett just signed -- along with the three-year, $106.5 million deal that Las Vegas gave Maxx Crosby -- assures that Hendrickson will be searching for the kind of payday that Cincinnati ($43.4 million in projected cap space) likely can't afford. Hendrickson is coming off a season in which he led the NFL with 17.5 sacks. There are a number of teams with plenty of cap room to add a pass rusher like that, along with the requisite need. The Bengals had the tools to keep Higgins at the negotiating table, as he now holds the franchise tag. They still have the 30-year-old Hendrickson under contract for another season, but moving him makes a lot more sense now, given how the market has shifted.
4) Kirk Cousins: Cousins was the biggest name on the free agent market last offseason, and the Falcons couldn't wait to sign him to a deal worth $100 million in guaranteed money. He's now surely feeling like one of the most frustrated quarterbacks in the league, as the idea of a fresh start must be tantalizing -- but his franchise is publicly saying it will do what’s best for its own interests. That's got to be a tough one to swallow for Cousins, who played well for half a season and then imploded in such epic fashion that rookie Michael Penix Jr. had his job by the end of the year. Cousins can see the same things everyone else can: There are positions out there to be had. There are a handful of teams that need proven veterans, including the Giants, Steelers and Browns. There also aren't many candidates out there without warts. Cousins could be in play if he were a free man. Unfortunately, the Falcons are playing a different game with him, one that probably makes them think somebody will deal for him.
5) Older wide receivers NOT named Davante Adams: The wide receiver market changed dramatically over the last week, with the release of Adams and agreed-upon trades for Samuel, Metcalf and Christian Kirk (from the Jaguars to the Texans). The players likely to be most impacted were those aging pass catchers seeking new homes and nice paydays. That over-30 crowd includes DeAndre Hopkins (32 years old), Amari Cooper (30), Stefon Diggs (31) and Cooper Kupp (who's 31 years old and reportedly will be released now that the Rams have signed Adams). Adams was able to find a new deal in Los Angeles because he remained productive and healthy with the Jets. These other players all struggled with either injuries or a lack of production last season. That's a bad look when you're still searching for work at a position where so many younger options became available.
