After the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, I used my model that predicts future player performance to identify the five best value picks from Thursday night. Now that we've wrapped Rounds 2 and 3, I've analyzed each of the 73 picks from Friday to determine the five best Day 2 values.
Moore ranked 23rd overall on my big board ahead of the draft. For the Chiefs to acquire a key player of need 31 selections later is exceptional value, and this pick makes them one of two teams to appear on both my Day 1 and 2 value lists. Pro Football Focus gave Moore a 91.8 receiving grade last season, the second-highest mark in the FBS among receivers. My models compared him to Texans wideout Brandin Cooks, in large part due to his consistency as a route runner. Moore had 262 yards after contact in 2021 (tied for ninth in the FBS, per PFF) and forced 26 missed tackles on receptions (tied for the most in the FBS).
To land my 26th highest-rated player with the 77th overall pick -- at a position of need, no less -- is a huge value add. Raimann had PFF's fourth-best run blocking grade (94.6) in the FBS last season, a huge boon for an offense built around All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor. Raimann earned a 96 athleticism score, per Next Gen Stats, which is the highest among offensive tackles in this draft class. He has markers that suggest he could play inside or outside, and PFF also shows he only allowed 10 pressures on passing downs last season.
The upside in taking a QB on Day 2, even for teams that don't have a pressing need at the position, is so massive that I was pleased to see a few take some chances on passers in Round 3. In the Titans' case, starter Ryan Tannehill will be 34 by Week 1 and is owed zero guaranteed money in 2023 (per Over The Cap), while Willis, my top-ranked QB this year, has a unique skill set and boasts a really high ceiling. So why not take the Liberty signal-caller, whom I've compared to Titans legend Steve McNair, and see what happens? Willis scored 74 combined passing and rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons, the most in the FBS over that time. He also forced 90 missed tackles on runs, which was first in the FBS (not just among QBs, but all rushers). Willis has top-11 overall change-of-direction speed with the ball in his hands among QBs in my 20-season computer-vision sample. This helped lead to his FBS-best 91.3 passer rating when throwing on scrambles. The potential win-share add with this pick could be huge for Tennessee for years to come.
Dean ranked 17th on Daniel Jeremiah's big board and 21st on mine, so the value here is pretty self-explanatory. The Eagles are a great fit for the linebacker, who could've easily been a first-round selection if not for injury concerns. The former Bulldog's forecast for executing blitz concepts is strong, and he ranks in the 87th percentile among prospects in terms of breaking blocks and pursuit speed, especially in the middle of the field, per computer vision. Dean allowed the fewest yards per target (3.5) among FBS linebackers last season, helping him to earn PFF's highest grade among linebackers (91.8).
In my first mock draft this year, before Ojabo tore his Achilles at his March pro day, I paired the dynamic edge rusher with the Ravens at No. 14. He ends up in Baltimore 31 spots later. This is a great fit for several reasons, but especially considering he will be reunited with Mike Macdonald, the team's defensive coordinator, who coached Ojabo at Michigan. Although he has less football experience than others at his position in this draft, Ojabo still produced 11 sacks (second in the Big Ten, behind his teammate Aidan Hutchinson’s 14), 42 pressures and a 15 percent pressure rate (both fifth in the Big Ten) last year. While it’s unclear when he’ll be able to return to the field, his potential upside is on par with the Ravens essentially gaining another first-rounder in 2023.
Bonitto ranked 51st on my big board ahead of the 2022 draft, but now that he's paired with Bradley Chubb and the Broncos defense, the forecasted production value is significantly higher than the league average I used to create my values. PFF gave Bonitto a 94.6 pass rush grade over the 2020 and 2021 seasons combined, the highest in the FBS (Aidan Hutchinson was second). Last season, the former Sooner was also PFF's highest-rated edge player in pass-rush win rate (27.8%) and had the highest QB pressure percentage among Power Five players (19.8%). Computer vision shows that his second-contact win rate (when a defender is stopped by an offensive lineman and then attacks again) was third-best among all draft-eligible edge defenders last year.
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