Week 6 NFL picks: 49ers, Eagles stay perfect; who wins Cowboys-Chargers showdown Monday night?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday's game and the rest of their Week 6 picks below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on bye: Packers, Steelers.
2. The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Oct. 12 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, OCT. 15

Why Tom is taking the Ravens: I don't think the Ravens will stall out against an inferior opponent two weeks in a row, regardless of which side of the Atlantic they're playing on. On a per-play basis, these teams mirror each other offensively, with Baltimore averaging 5.2 yards a snap and Tennessee putting up 5.1. Where the Ravens have an edge is on defense and on the ground (with Derrick Henry off to an even slower start than usual). Oh, and I suppose Lamar Jackson offers a pretty big boost in the edge department, too, Week 5's sloppiness aside.

Why Brooke is taking the Falcons: The Commanders were hit in the mouth by a previously winless Bears team last Thursday, and I wonder if the extra few days will really help them overcome major problem areas. Sam Howell has been sacked (29) and hit (50) more than any other quarterback this season, making it hard for the young passer to get into any sort of rhythm. Washington's talent-infused defense is giving off early paper-tiger vibes after allowing at least 30 points in each of the last four games. Meanwhile, the Falcons are slowly putting it together. Desmond Ridder finally got playmakers Kyle Pitts and Drake London involved and eclipsed 300 passing yards last week, while Atlanta's defense ranks in the top 10 in scoring, total and third-down defense. These two teams appear to be trending in opposite directions. Plus, Ridder is undefeated (5-0) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Make of that what you will.

Why Ali is taking the Bears: Da Bears are back, baby! Justin Fields and Co. boast the league's No. 1 offense since the start of Week 4 (sample size, shmample size), with explosive plays fueling the unit's surprise turn: Chicago has the second most over the past two weeks (20), after tying for the fewest over their first three games (12). Can TD machine DJ Moore keep it going against a Brian Flores defense that has been one of the NFL's best at limiting the big play? Perhaps even more pressing: How will Minnesota overcome the loss of its top big-play threat? This one is tight throughout, with the Bears' depleted backfield unable to get going against the Vikings' formidable front. But Fields takes over, proving to the home crowd that his resurgence is no fluke.

Why Dan is taking the Bengals: There is a scenario where the Seahawks run the ball down the Bengals' throat and earn a decisive win. That is how most of Cincinnati's contests have played out so far. Joe Burrow and Co. put themselves in an early hole this season, while Seattle did the opposite. Maybe that plays to the Bengals' favor here because the hole gets considerably deeper if they lose on Sunday. They would be 2-4 heading into a bye before they have to visit the currently undefeated 49ers. I'm assuming the sense of urgency will be at least a little higher on Cincinnati's sideline and that Burrow is indeed trending in the right direction.

Why Ali is taking the 49ers: Good teams, bad teams, at home, on the road, in prime time. All the Niners do is win -- big. Their per-game point differential -- a whopping +19.8 -- easily paces the league and is nearly five times higher than the Browns' average margin (+4.0, T-10th). In fact, the 49ers have trailed for just 1 minute and 45 seconds all season. That's the top mark through a team's first five games since the 2009 Saints, who finished the campaign hoisting hardware while being interviewed by Jim Nantz on CBS. (Hmmm …) The Browns are fresh off the bye, but they are hardly fresh, with Deshaun Watson still rehabbing his rotator cuff contusion. Whether he suits up or sits out, the Niners' next-level dominance is too much for this Browns team to overcome.

UPDATE: The Browns officially ruled Deshaun Watson out of Sunday's game, positioning P.J. Walker to take the reins against the 49ers.

Why Brooke is taking the Texans: The most intriguing matchup in this tilt is Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud vs. the Saints' formidable defense. The No. 2 overall pick is already playing at a high level just five games into his NFL career, ranking in the top five among qualified quarterbacks with 292.2 passing yards per game (fifth) and a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio (second), setting multiple records along the way. Can he continue this in his toughest test to date? The Saints boast a top-five scoring and total defense and shut out the Patriots a week ago. History isn't on Stroud's side: Rookie QBs are 2-8 when starting against New Orleans in the last five seasons, and they are 4-17 when facing a top-four scoring and total defense entering Week 6 or later since 2017. History might repeat itself Sunday, but I've got faith in Stroud and Houston.

Why Dan is taking the Jaguars: Indianapolis needed a defensive score to come within 10 points of Jacksonville back in Week 1, but seemingly turned a corner right after that game, with an overtime loss to the Rams the only blemish on their record since. The gap between these two teams probably isn't as wide as the score in the season opener would suggest, even with Anthony Richardson sidelined, but I'm not going to pick the Jaguars to fall to 0-3 at EverBank Stadium this season after their perfect twin bill in London. The Colts are frisky enough to keep it close, though.

Why Gennaro is taking the Dolphins: Mike McDaniel's video game offense leads the NFL in scoring (36.2 ppg), passing (327.8 ypg), rushing (185.8 ypg) and a host of additional statistics that'd only serve to belabor one simple point: Miami is a freaking WAGON. Sure, the absurd productivity is unsustainable over the course of a season, but what makes you think this is a game where the Dolphins don't roll downhill? Oh, rookie sensation De’Von Achane just hit injured reserve? OK, then it's finally Jaylen Waddle's turn to take the baton and run circles around a defense. The league's only winless team, Carolina has lost each of its three road contests by double digits. Meanwhile, the Fins have rolled up 101 points and 1,250 yards in two games this season at Hard Rock Stadium. Projecting a 40-burger might be conservative.

Why Tom is taking the Raiders: The Patriots haven't averaged fewer than 20 points per game since 2000, Bill Belichick's first year on the job. And even that team managed 6.3 more points per game than this year's squad, which, at 11 points per game, is stunningly close to the single-digit mark. I don't know if I can trust the Raiders to coast to victory, but they're trending in a better direction than New England and have a clear talent advantage.

Why Gennaro is taking the Lions: After spending most of the past 65 years as an NFL punchline, the Lions have emerged as a legit GOOD TEAM. How do we know this? Well, after finishing last season on an inspiring heater, Detroit is off to an impressive start in 2023, having already earned prime-time road wins at Arrowhead Stadium and Lambeau Field. Yes, the Lions lost a shootout to Seattle in Week 2, but they've taken care of business since, posting three straight wins of 14-plus points. That's what GOOD TEAMS do! Is Tampa Bay a GOOD TEAM? Well, the Bucs also have just one loss to their name, but the three wins (over Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans) aren't much to write home about. It's Creamsicle Week in Tampa, but Honolulu Blue reigns on Sunday.

Why Dan is taking the Rams: After a surprisingly competitive start to the season, the Cardinals have fallen on hard times. They were just trounced by the 49ers and Bengals in consecutive weeks, and now must visit the division-rival Rams without injured RB1 James Conner. The bigger problem for Arizona might be on defense. The Eagles showed what happens (bad things) to the Rams' offense when there's consistent heat on Matthew Stafford, but the Cardinals don't have the personnel to follow that blueprint. They rank second to last in the league in QB pressure rate (28.9%) and seem to be heading in the wrong direction.

Why Brooke is taking the Eagles: This would have been a phenomenal quarterback matchup, but Jalen Hurts vs. Zach Wilson just doesn't have the same ring to it. The Eagles are still far from perfect in certain areas (SEE: 25th-ranked pass defense), but look for their dependable and unstoppable rushing attack to take full advantage of a poor Jets run defense, controlling the clock in the process. I don't expect this one to be close due to the disparity at quarterback, but there are two intriguing matchups to keep an eye on: A.J. Brown vs. Sauce Gardner and Breece Hall vs. Jalen Carter.

UPDATE: NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Friday that Jalen Carter (ankle) is expected to miss Sunday's game.

Why Tom is taking the Bills: The unknowable nature of the future hangs over all of these blurbs, but sometimes, it's not too tough to make a pick -- like, say, when a team scoring more than 30 points per game takes on a team that averages less than 13. The Bills are certainly capable of a surprise stinker, but they have too much working in their favor for me to try to spin a scenario in which Brian Daboll gets the Giants out of their doldrums against his old employer in Buffalo, potentially with Tyrod Taylor as his quarterback.

UPDATE: Giants coach Brian Daboll announced Friday that quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) won't play Sunday, putting Tyrod Taylor in the starting lineup.

MONDAY, OCT. 16

Why Ali is taking the Chargers: Are we sure the Cowboys are good? Their three wins have come against teams that are a combined 4-11, while their two losses were blowouts on the road -- including the biggest upset so far this season. The same could be asked of the Chargers, who, at 2-2, could just as easily be undefeated or winless. It's hard to trust either team right now, so I'm leaning toward the one that's had an extra week to heal and prepare, and that scores touchdowns -- not field goals -- in the red zone (Chargers: 68.8%, 5th; Cowboys: 36.8%, 28th).

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Gennaro is taking the Chiefs: Denver's last win over Kansas City DID occur on Thursday Night Football. But Patrick Mahomes was a sophomore at Texas Tech and Isiah Pacheco was a sophomore at Vineland High School. Eight years later, Mahomes and Pacheco look to spur the Chiefs' 16th straight win over their downtrodden division rivals. As K.C.'s starting quarterback, Mahomes is a perfect 11-0 against the Broncos. But given the uncertain status of Travis Kelce’s ankle and unrefined makeup of Kansas City's receiving corps, Andy Reid could continue leaning on the second-year back who's scored a rushing touchdown in each of the past three games. Consequently, look for a Chiefs victory that's more slow burn than laser light show.

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