Texans vs. Patriots: Three must-know storylines for Sunday's Divisional Round game

At the end of September, the Patriots were treading water with a 2-2 record. The Texans were downright scuttling at 0-3, dropping their first three games of the season.

Since then, these have been among the hottest teams in the NFL, losing only three combined games -- and the winner of Texans-Patriots will advance to the AFC Championship Game. (And if the Buffalo Bills beat the Denver Broncos, the Texans-Patriots winner will host the game.)

The Texans and Patriots have a lot of connections through the coaching staffs and front offices, and they each have former Pro Bowl defenders as head coaches. But they're built differently -- Houston with a dominant defense, New England with a budding star in Drake Maye at quarterback.

If C.J. Stroud can bounce back from a tough game at Pittsburgh, the Texans can be tough to beat. But New England's defense also flexed its muscles in the Wild Card Round, with five sacks of Justin Herbert and allowing the Chargers only three points.

Three must-know storylines

1. Maye faces his toughest challenge yet. Drake Maye has had an MVP-caliber second season, and he rebounded from a slow start last week to finish strong in a win over the Chargers. But Maye arguably faces his toughest test of his season with the Texans' defense, which ranked top three in the regular season in points per game allowed (17.4), yards per game allowed (277.2) and takeaways (29). Houston dominated the Steelers in last week's 30-6 win. The Texans are sure to take note of Maye's struggles when the Chargers went man coverage, completing only 1 of 7 passes for 7 yards while taking three sacks, per Next Gen Stats. Houston played man slightly less than the league average in the regular season at 25.2% of the time. But when the Texans went man against the Steelers on Monday, Aaron Rodgers was only 1 for 6 passing for 4 yards and a sack. The Patriots' offensive line, with two rookies starting, will have its hands full with an elite rush unit led by Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Sheldon Rankins. Maye has an escape hatch with his running ability, and the Texans have occasionally struggled with running quarterbacks, even while keeping Josh Allen and others in check. But Maye also has receiving threats on all three levels. Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams are deep threats. Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry often patrol the intermediate part of the field. And the Patriots have a strong short passing game, with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson getting more in on the fun, in addition to what they offer in the run game. Stevenson has especially been a weapon down the stretch, but the Texans have bottled up some quality backs this season.
2. Stroud hoping for bounce-back effort against reenergized Patriots D. C.J. Stroud was starting his fifth career postseason game Monday against the Steelers, which is why it was surprising he appeared spooked at times during a three-turnover performance. Stroud fumbled five times (losing two) and threw his first red-zone interception since 2023 in the win, thankfully bailed out by his team's dominant defense. Stroud also had some good moments in the game, but he'll need to have a far cleaner outing against a Patriots defense that mercilessly pressured Justin Herbert last week. Since getting Milton Williams back, the Patriots' pass-rush unit has appeared significantly more impactful, and they're also deeper and healthier at linebacker. Stroud's ballhandling issues were out of character, but the least he can do is get more in sync with center Jake Andrews; three of the fumbles came on shaky snaps. What steadied Houston's offense against the Steelers was a strong game from running back Woody Marks, who ran for 112 yards and put the game away with his fourth-quarter touchdown. The Texans run-blocked effectively, with only one negative-yard run, and were able to offset the inconsistent passing game. The Patriots' run defense has been very solid, especially since the return of Williams and Jack Gibbens, who had seven tackles on only 14 defensive snaps last week. If Marks can't get loose, the onus would shift back to Stroud to make plays. Staying patient against the Patriots, who don't allow a lot of big plays, might be the key, although they've shown more willingness to blitz and play more man coverage later in the season.
3. Injury robs viewers of great head-to-head matchup. Two star players -- Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Texans wide receiver Nico Collins -- were likely slated to face off head-to-head against each other quite a bit, but separate injuries clouded their respective statuses ahead of the Divisional Round. Although Gonzalez and Collins both suffered concussions during the Wild Card Round, Gonzalez came off the injury report Friday and is good to go, while Collins won't clear concussion protocol and must sit. The Patriots' defense is simply different with Gonzalez on the field, able to play more man defense when they want to, with Gonzalez often erasing his assignment. According to NGS, Gonzalez didn't allow a reception on five targets (26 coverage snaps) against the Chargers, with two passes defended. Collins, Houston's receiving-yards leader who now has been evaluated for multiple concussions in 2025, leaves a big hole by missing the contest. However, in the one regular-season game Collins missed this season prior to resting in Week 18 (Week 8 vs. San Francisco), C.J. Stroud was terrific, completing 30 of 39 passes for 319 yards, with two TDs and one pick. It was a balanced attack, too, with seven Texans catching multiple passes and no receiver having more than 69 yards. Texans tight end Dalton Schultz has been one of Stroud's most trusted pass catchers, and WR Christian Kirk had his first 100-yard game in more than two seasons on Monday and has a good postseason track record. The Texans also have leaned on Xavier Hutchinson and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at times. Asked previously who needs to step up if Collins can't suit up, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said: "Whoever is open, baby." Expect another group effort again with Collins being a no-go.

Texans' Divisional Round injury report

Patriots' Divisional Round injury report

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