Super Bowl LV picks: Will Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs or Tom Brady's Buccaneers win in Tampa?

Will Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs bring the Lombardi Trophy home for the second straight year? Can Tom Brady lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the franchise's second title, snagging a seventh ring for himself in the process? Which players will shine this Sunday on the game's biggest stage at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa? Our analysts provide their Super Bowl LV predictions.

Gregg Rosenthal: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 30

Why the Chiefs will win: Last QB with the ball wins, just like the last time these two passers faced off in the playoffs. This time, it's Patrick Mahomes in control with the clock winding down.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Jason Pierre-Paul is part of a first-half turnover that forces Mahomes to play catch-up.

Cynthia Frelund: Chiefs 29, Buccaneers 28

Why the Chiefs will win: While the Chiefs' O-line injuries spawn a closer game than the Week 12 matchup, Patrick Mahomes and the game plan exploit mismatches with K.C.'s speed and Tampa Bay's secondary. Plus, a big play at a key time from the Chiefs' defense decides the game.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tyrann Mathieu

Bold prediction: My MVP pick is pretty bold, no? But I can envision it. We've seen Tom Brady be inconsistent with the deep pass, and while it's far more likely for a QB to be the MVP, if you want to play it contrarian, this is my pick.

Steve Smith Sr.: Buccaneers 35, Chiefs 31

Why the Bucs will win: Playing at home is a huge factor in this game, as the limited but Bucs-heavy crowd makes it difficult for the Chiefs all game long.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: The Chiefs blow a fourth-quarter lead, with Brady orchestrating a thrilling game-winning drive.

Terrell Davis: Chiefs 38, Buccaneers 36

Why the Chiefs will win: The difference will be the Chiefs' superstars showing up in one or two critical moments. Sometimes that's all it takes.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Travis Kelce

Bold prediction: Both the Chiefs and Bucs will score touchdowns on each of their first two possessions.

Jeffri Chadiha: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 30

Why the Bucs will win: The Chiefs will score a lot of points behind Patrick Mahomes, but Tom Brady knows how important managing this game will be for Tampa Bay. The Bucs' pass rush will also capitalize on Kansas City's injury-plagued offensive line.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill had 269 receiving yards in Kansas City's Week 12 win over the Bucs. He won't surpass the 100-yard mark in this game.

Judy Battista: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 27

Why the Chiefs will win: With a battered offensive line, Patrick Mahomes will get the ball out quickly with lots of short passes to Travis Kelce, frustrating the pass rush of Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Chris Jones does his best Justin Tuck impression and gets to Tom Brady up the middle.

Joe Thomas: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 27

Why the Chiefs will win: Kansas City's ability to get pressure on Tom Brady with Chris Jones coupled with its ability to score with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is just too much for the Bucs to overcome.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Travis Kelce

Bold prediction: Kelce will have eight catches for 120 yards and two TDs to lead the Chiefs to their second consecutive Super Bowl win!

Marc Sessler: Buccaneers 39, Chiefs 37

Why the Bucs will win: Tyreek Hill will zigzag to and fro, while Travis Kelce crosses 100-plus yards by halftime. It's Tom Brady, though, who answers repeatedly and finds Chris Godwin for the winning score with 0:07 left on the clock -- perfectly matching TB12's Lombardi count.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: Utterly dialed into the motherboard, Brady -- the greatest quarterback of our lifetime -- unfurls four scoring lasers and catches a touchdown lob from Rob Gronkowski, causing an overcome-with-emotion Bruce Arians to do THE ROBOT on the sideline.

Marc Ross: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 24

Why the Chiefs will win: Patrick Mahomes has yet to play a truly bad game. It just always seems inevitable that he will play at a level no other QB can match to find a way to win. Add in the unguardable duo of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, with the underrated Chiefs defense, and this pick is fairly easy.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Despite sacking Aaron Rodgers fives times in the NFC Championship Game, the Bucs' D is unable to take advantage of Eric Fisher's injury and do not sack Mahomes even once. On the flip side, Kansas City's Chris Jones tallies 2.5 sacks of Tom Brady.

Ali Bhanpuri: Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 24

Why the Bucs will win: As I wrote in this space a year ago, there are three active pro athletes I refuse to pick against: Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and LeBron James. So this matchup puts me in a tough spot. But Brady's Bucs get the edge because Tampa's front four should have its way with the Chiefs' banged-up O-line. Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul keep Mahomes contained in the pocket (as much as that's possible), allowing Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh to set up shop in the young phenom's grill all game long.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Shaquil Barrett

Bold prediction: Possessions are at a premium in this one, which is why a timely Barrett sack-fumble earns the seventh-year pro some extra hardware at the end of the night.

Dan Hanzus: Buccaneers 34, Chiefs 31

Why the Bucs will win: Every Tom Brady achievement in 2021 just builds on his legend, and this will be the win that surpasses them all. Appearing in his 10th Super Bowl, at age 43, Brady outplays the great Mahomes and leads the Bucs to their second Super Bowl title.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: The Bucs will have two 100-yard receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), but it will be two red-zone touchdowns by Rob Gronkowski that people will remember most.

Adam Rank: Chiefs 35, Buccaneers 31

Why the Chiefs will win: I've seen this before. The old G.O.A.T. with one last shot to hold off the new kid. But you can't stop the inevitable. This will be a true passing-of-the-torch moment, like when HBK put over Stone Cold Steve Austin at WrestleMania XIV. Only, I don't think we'll need Mike Tyson on the sideline, or the Undertaker in the Bucs' locker room convincing Tom Brady to go out on the field.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Darrel Williams has a pair of touchdowns, one rushing, one receiving. But sorry, running backs don't win MVP awards.

Steve Mariucci: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24

Why the Chiefs will win: There is no single reason the Chiefs win this game, as Andy Reid's squad puts together a team effort against the Bucs. While Tampa has several players with Super Bowl experience, almost the entire Kansas City roster is back from last year's championship team, and it shows.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: There will be zero interceptions.

Dan Parr: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 24

Why the Bucs will win: The Bucs' mighty pass rush tees off against a patchwork Chiefs offensive line, ensuring enhanced G.O.A.T. status for Brady.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: Brady finds his old friend Gronk only once all evening -- for the game-winning score in the fourth quarter. Soon afterward, Bill Belichick turns off the TV and takes Nike for a long walk in the snow.

DeAngelo Hall: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 24

Why the Chiefs will win: Andy Reid's offense has too many weapons for the Bucs to defend. Plus, Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive defense never allows Tom Brady to get comfortable. Baby G.O.A.T. takes down OG G.O.A.T.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: In a game that starts out as a defensive battle, the Chiefs run the ball successfully for 200 yards while the Super Bowl MVP finishes with 350 passing yards.

Scott Pioli: Chiefs 38, Buccaneers 24

Why the Chiefs will win: Kansas City's offense is close to unstoppable, and although the Bucs' improved defense has played well, no defense is a match for Mahomes and Co.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Harrison Butker hits a 54-yard field goal to tie Steve Christie's Super Bowl record for longest boot.

Rhett Lewis: Buccaneers 33, Chiefs 31

Why the Bucs will win: I picked Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, making Tom Brady the second QB in history to win a Super Bowl with two teams. It happens when the Bucs are able to pressure Mahomes enough with Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett and without sending extra rushers to prevent the Chiefs' offense from going wild. This allows Brady just enough opportunity to get the win.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: The Bucs get Brady his seventh Super Bowl ring, in part, by sacking Mahomes seven times.

Maurice Jones-Drew: Chiefs 42, Buccaneers 31

Why the Chiefs will win: I picked Kansas City over Tampa Bay in the preseason, so I'm sticking with my initial gut instinct. The Chiefs have too much firepower on offense and Mahomes is playing at a scary-good level that not even the best defenses can stop.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: The Chiefs have three 100-yard pass catchers: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Tom Blair: Chiefs 35, Buccaneers 31

Why the Chiefs will win: Patrick Mahomes is inevitable.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Brady and the Bucs get within inches of the goal line in the final seconds, but Chris Jones clinches the win for K.C. by stonewalling Brady's QB sneak attempt.

Gennaro Filice: Chiefs 40, Buccaneers 27

Why the Chiefs will win: The G.O.A.T. passes the torch to the G.O.T.T. (greatest of this time), as 43-year-old Tom Brady just can't keep up with 25-year-old Patrick Mahomes.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Chris Jones gets under Brady's skin once again with quick pressure up the middle that leads to a safety, making the iconic quarterback the only player ever involved in two Super Bowl two-pointers. TB12 owns all the records!!

Gil Brandt: Buccaneers 20, Chiefs 19

Why the Bucs will win: The strongest factor working in the Bucs' favor is their front seven, which shapes up to be a little stronger than the Chiefs' group. Never count out Patrick Mahomes, but Kansas City is just going to have a hard time blocking Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Co. without injured left tackle Eric Fisher.

Super Bowl LIV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: The last play will decide the game: With Tampa trying to maneuver into field-goal position, Brady will scramble, fumble the ball, then make a miraculous recovery to advance the ball within kicking range, setting up the winning boot.

Marcas Grant: Chiefs 38, Buccaneers 21

Why the Chiefs will win: Tampa's defense has been very good throughout the playoffs, but the Bucs also about to match up against the most complete offense they've seen since Week 12 when they lost to ... the Chiefs.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Tom Brady will atone for his drop in Super Bowl LII by catching a touchdown, but it will be all for naught.

Charley Casserly: Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 27

Why the Bucs will win: In a game full of lead changes, the Bucs' defense comes up with a big stop late to give the franchise its second Lombardi Trophy.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: Having been sacked just once this postseason, Patrick Mahomes is sacked four times by the Bucs' defensive front.

Nate Burleson: Chiefs 42, Buccaneers 35

Why the Chiefs will win: The Bucs have improved in nearly every facet and that's why they're here, but ultimately, the Chiefs' offensive juggernaut proves to be too much.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Travis Kelce hauls in three touchdowns.

Brooke Cersosimo: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 26

Why the Chiefs will win: It's hard to go against the G.O.A.T. in a Super Bowl -- his raging comeback in Super Bowl LI comes to mind -- but Mahomes is the one true X-factor. He can take over games with one whip of the ball or his little old man jog, and he will to win his second straight title.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: The Chiefs bring back "Jet Chip Wasp."

Lance Zierlein: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24

Why the Chiefs will win: Although the Chiefs' offensive line is hurting and could struggle to hold up, Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy have built an offense that can create explosive plays on all three levels, so the quick game will be effective. Plus, Tampa's defensive backs simply don't match up well with Kansas City's dynamic playmakers.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: The Chiefs will unleash a trick play that involves Mahomes catching a touchdown pass -- or at least a position player throwing a touchdown pass.

Jeremy Bergman: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 20

Why the Chiefs will win: Shamelessly Ctrl-V-ing my midseason prediction here. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are more than capable of overcoming Kansas City's lack of starting tackles and Tampa Bay's pass rush. The Chiefs boast too many weapons for the Bucs secondary to cover and should repeat their first-quarter performance from the regular season in Sunday's second half.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction:Travis Kelce will break the record for most receiving yards in a Super Bowl by a tight end (Rob Gronkowskihad 116 in SB LII) … and still not win MVP.

Kevin Patra: Chiefs 32, Buccaneers 28

Why the Chiefs will win: It's plain and simple. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Chris Jones will generate four sacks of Tom Brady.

Brian Baldinger: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 27

Why the Bucs will win: The Bucs' ability to create turnovers throughout the postseason (seven takeaways turned into six TDs) continues.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Devin White

Bold prediction: Brady collects his seventh ring and announces after the game that he's returning next season to collect his eighth.

Nick Shook: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 26

Why the Chiefs will win: Kansas City's offense has shown it can force its pace onto any team it faces, even those best equipped to attempt to play keep-away (which the Buccaneers likely won't try). The experience of Tom Brady will keep the Bucs in it, but in the end, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' explosiveness will simply be too much to overcome.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: L'Jarius Sneed caps his stellar rookie season with a game-swinging takeaway in the second half, giving the Chiefs the boost they need to take the lead and ride into the sweet sunset of another Super Bowl victory.

Willie McGinest: Buccaneers 34, Chiefs 27

Why the Bucs will win: The Buccaneers have played better each week, are peaking at the right time and have already avenged regular-season losses in the postseason. With the personnel to matchup with the Chiefs, the Bucs finish the job Tom Brady set out to achieve when he left New England.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Tom Brady

Bold prediction: Todd Bowles' defense shows up in a big way with six-plus sacks and three turnovers.

Shaun O'Hara: Chiefs 37, Buccaneers 34

Why the Chiefs will win: Brady has another epic performance in a Super Bowl, but Mahomes finds magic again thanks to a record-setting night by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Super Bowl LV MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Bold prediction: Tyreek Hill sets a new Super Bowl receiving yards record, surpassing Jerry Rice's mark of 215 yards in Super Bowl XXIII.

Table inside Article
Analyst Winner Score MVP
Brian Baldinger Buccaneers 31-27 Devin White
Judy Battista Chiefs 31-27 Patrick Mahomes
Jeremy Bergman Chiefs 34-20 Patrick Mahomes
Ali Bhanpuri Buccaneers 27-24 Shaq Barrett
Tom Blair Chiefs 35-31 Patrick Mahomes
Gil Brandt Buccaneers 20-19 Tom Brady
Nate Burleson Chiefs 42-35 Patrick Mahomes
Charley Casserly Buccaneers 30-27 Tom Brady
Brooke Cersosimo Chiefs 30-26 Patrick Mahomes
Jeffri Chadiha Buccaneers 31-30 Tom Brady
Terrell Davis Chiefs 38-36 Travis Kelce
Gennaro Filice Chiefs 40-27 Patrick Mahomes
Cynthia Frelund Chiefs 29-28 Tyrann Mathieu
Marcas Grant Chiefs 38-21 Patrick Mahomes
DeAngelo Hall Chiefs 34-24 Patrick Mahomes
Dan Hanzus Buccaneers 34-31 Tom Brady
Maurice Jones-Drew Chiefs 42-31 Patrick Mahomes
Rhett Lewis Buccaneers 33-31 Tom Brady
Steve Mariucci Chiefs 30-24 Patrick Mahomes
Willie McGinest Buccaneers 34-27 Tom Brady
Shaun O'Hara Chiefs 37-34 Patrick Mahomes
Dan Parr Buccaneers 31-24 Tom Brady
Kevin Patra Chiefs 32-28 Patrick Mahomes
Scott Pioli Chiefs 38-24 Patrick Mahomes
Adam Rank Chiefs 35-31 Patrick Mahomes
Gregg Rosenthal Chiefs 31-30 Patrick Mahomes
Marc Ross Chiefs 31-24 Patrick Mahomes
Marc Sessler Buccaneers 39-37 Tom Brady
Nick Shook Chiefs 31-26 Patrick Mahomes
Steve Smith Sr. Buccaneers 35-31 Tom Brady
Joe Thomas Chiefs 30-27 Travis Kelce
Lance Zierlein Chiefs 30-24 Patrick Mahomes
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