NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering final week of 2024 regular season

Entering the final week of the 2024 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.

A few notes before we dig in:

1. All probabilities presented are current as of 11:50 p.m. ET on Dec. 30 unless otherwise noted below.
2. Terms defined:
   • If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
   • If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
   • Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.

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• Division races

AFC playoff picture entering Week 18

• After months of playing with their food, the Chiefs have returned to their Michelin-level execution. Shocking, I know. The gourmet whooping they cooked up for the Steelers on Christmas Day -- Kansas City's sixth consecutive win and its most impressive yet of 2024 -- captured the AFC's No. 1 seed and checked the next box in the team's quest for the three-peat. (How about those Chefs!) The ripple effect of K.C. clinching with one week to go could be significant and far-reaching ...
• ... As far down as the conference's No. 7 seed, where the Broncos continue to waste win-and-in opportunities. However, even after their latest setback, Saturday's overtime letdown in Cincinnati, Denver's playoff chances sit at a healthy 83%. The Broncos can clinch the third AFC wild-card spot with a win or tie at home against the Chiefs, who are expected to rest their starters in the regular-season finale. That said, if Denver were to lose to Carson Wentz and Co., then wins by either Miami (at Jets) or Cincinnati (at Steelers) would knock the Broncos out of contention. Denver will undoubtedly be heavy favorites against K.C.'s B team. But by kickoff, that group of second-stringers will have had more than 10 days to prepare for their time in the spotlight. And they'll still be led by Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo -- one of the most successful coaching combos in NFL history. So, let's not allocate the seventh seed to the Broncos just yet.
• Of the two 8-8 teams aspiring to unseat Denver, Miami has a major advantage over Cincinnati because of the Fins' favorable record against AFC teams. The Dolphins' one-game edge in conference play would serve as the differentiator in the event of a two- or three-way tie at 9-8. Thus, the only way Cincinnati can still clinch a berth is with a win on Saturday and losses by the Broncos and Dolphins on Sunday. That might seem like a lot -- and, to be fair, it is, at this stage -- but it's at least straightforward ... unlike the convoluted mess the Bengals were in more than a month ago. In fact, Cincinnati is three times more likely to make the playoffs today than it was on Dec. 3. That's not nothing, even if it's short of what the Bengals want.
• The Ravens can secure the three seed and the AFC North title by defeating the Browns in Game 1 of Saturday's doubleheader. But should they lose to Cleveland, they can still maintain their current position in the playoff picture (and in the North) with a Steelers loss to the Bengals in Game 2.
• Pittsburgh, for its part, still has seeding at stake even if the division race is over by the time its game kicks off. If the Steelers fail to shed their losing "stench" on Saturday, and the Chargers were to win in Vegas on Sunday, Pittsburgh would drop to the sixth seed (occurred in 38% of simulations). In that scenario, instead of playing an up-and-down Texans team on Super Wild Card Weekend, the Steelers would spend Round 1 of the playoffs in Baltimore -- where they were blown out in Week 16 (their second-worst loss of the season).
• The Bills and Texans are locked into the two and four seeds, respectively, so we might not see a full four quarters (or any) for some of their star players. Buffalo will welcome either the Broncos, Bengals or Dolphins (basically, whoever clinches the seventh seed) to Highmark Stadium in Round 1, while Houston will host either the Ravens, Steelers or Chargers (whoever winds up at No. 5). In the more immediate term, however, these two playoff-bound squads have the potential to shake up the 2025 NFL Draft board in Week 18. Buffalo plays New England, which currently holds the No. 1 pick, and Houston faces Tennessee, which currently sits at No. 2. A Pats win paired with a Titans loss is all it would take for these two teams to swap spots at the top of the order. Not exactly the implications the league imagined when it scheduled these two division games to round out the season, but the contests are consequential nonetheless!
• Finally, I'll close the section with this: The AFC playoff field has a three-body problem. The Bills, Chiefs and Ravens are three massively talented dynamos exerting force on one another and the four remaining clubs unlucky enough to exist in their close proximity. This powerful trio cannot orbit each other stably forever, though; chaos is inevitable. Whichever team survives the head-to-head collisions and unpredictability best will likely emerge from the cluster to represent the conference in Super Bowl LIX.

AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:

• Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
• New York Jets (4-12)
• Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
• Cleveland Browns (3-13)
• Tennessee Titans (3-13)
• New England Patriots (3-13)

NFC playoff picture entering Week 18

• Clearly I was trying to fade the Packers when I took them to beat the Vikings in our weekly picks column. As far as I could tell, it was the only way to guarantee the Week 18 matchup we all wanted. And it worked! (You're welcome, by the way.) Here's a brief reminder of what's at stake in Sunday night's hugely consequential Vikings-Lions title bout:
  • Winner receives: NFC's No. 1 seed, a playoff bye, 2024 division banner
  • Loser receives: NFC's fifth seed, division runner-up ribbon, trip to L.A./Tampa/Atlanta in Round 1 (in that order of likelihood, per the model)
• The Lions can actually claim all of the "winner's" bounty above with a tie, too. But ties are zero fun, so let's not dwell on that possibility.
• The Eagles enter the weekend in wait-and-see mode. Already locked into the two seed, they'll either host the Packers or Commanders (whichever team ends up at No. 7) in the opening round of the tournament. With its playoff positioning set, Philly's biggest contribution in Week 18 will actually be connected to the 2025 NFL Draft. Could the Giants, who have already lost hold of the No. 1 overall pick, slip further down the draft board by beating an Eagles squad potentially content with resting its starters?
• The Commanders and Packers have already punched their tickets, so Week 18 is all about playoff positioning for these contenders. A Washington win or Green Bay loss would keep both clubs in their current spots (occurred in 68% of simulations). However a Commanders loss plus a Packers win would transpose these teams in the standings. In that scenario, the Packers would either go to L.A. or Tampa on Super Wild Card Weekend (they've already won at Rams this year) instead of playing in Philadelphia (they previously lost to the Eagles in Brazil). In either case, expect Green Bay to have a massive chip on its shoulder entering the playoffs after falling to 0-5 this season against NFC teams with 12 wins or more.
• Seahawks-Rams was supposed to be the undercard to Vikings-Lions this weekend, but that West Coast rivalry game was stripped of its title implications when L.A. clinched the division on Sunday night. The Rams still have seeding to consider, though; a win versus Seattle would guarantee Sean McVay's squad the No. 3 slot. A loss, on the other hand, combined with a Bucs victory over the Saints, would actually drop them down to No. 4 -- meaning they'd have to face either the Vikings or Lions on Super Wild Card Weekend. I would imagine L.A. would prefer to postpone playoff dates with those 14-win clubs, if possible.
• More on the Bucs and Falcons in the NFC South section below ...

NFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:

• Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
• Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
• Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
• New Orleans Saints (5-11)
• Carolina Panthers (4-12)
• Chicago Bears (4-12)
• New York Giants (3-13)

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Who's most likely to win each division?

(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)

• The Ravens had a very happy holiday, gaining a full game on the Steelers in the AFC North standings -- and about 35 points in division win probability -- on Christmas Day. Baltimore is now the overwhelming favorite to take the North. But the job's not done yet. Pittsburgh can still claim the division this Saturday with a win over Cincinnati coupled with a Baltimore loss to Cleveland (who beat the Ravens in Week 8). That scenario would push Pittsburgh into first place based on division record (4-2 vs. 3-3). Otherwise, the Ravens will be crowned the 2024 AFC North champions.

• Though the Vikings boast the league's longest active win streak, 14 overall victories and a season sweep of the playoff-bound Packers, the model has them as underdogs against Detroit this weekend. Nothing new for Kevin O'Connell's group, which has lived in the Lions' shadow for most of the campaign. Minnesota will have a chance to put its stamp on the division, conference and the league as a whole on Sunday night, though. If they're able to win at Ford Field, the Vikings would claim their first No. 1 seed since the 1998 season, which is also the last time they hosted a conference title game. If they were to lose, however, they'd end up going on the road to begin the playoffs -- which would be a real bummer after all they've accomplished. The franchise has just two road playoff wins (in nine games) over the past 25 years.
• Since the 1970 merger, the Lions have never won their division in back to back to years, nor have they finished with the conference's No. 1 seed. If they end up having to travel in Round 1, they'll carry the added burden of a league-worst 0-12 road playoff record (since the merger). Not that all of those previous losses are on Dan Campbell's ledger (only last year's), but you know that'll be a narrative he'll be asked about. Better to win on Sunday night and squash the line of questioning altogether.

• The Bucs find themselves back in the driver's seat entering Week 18, needing only a win or tie, or a Falcons loss or tie to lock up the division. The model gives Tampa a 9:1 edge to finish as NFC South champs, which is indicative of the team's position of power in this competition. But the Bucs have had a bad habit of coming up short immediately following significant victories (SEE: Denver in Week 3, Falcons in Week 5, Ravens in Week 7, Cowboys in Week 16). Considering the anxiety-riddled nature of this race, I suggest waiting to crown anybody until both of these early-window games wrap.

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Jack Andrade and Dante Koplowitz-Fleming contributed to this story.