"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." -- Mike Tyson
Fantasy enthusiasts don't have to worry about getting socked in the jaw on draft day. At least, I'd hope not. (Otherwise, you might want to consider a less intense league.) But the spirit of Iron Mike's quote applies. Everyone is confident in their strategy until one of your picks gets sniped just ahead of you. Then what do you do?
Do you panic, reach too early for a quarterback and miss out on some elite-tier receivers? Do you abandon your steadfast ZeroRB mentality and select that low-end RB1 you've had concerns about all offseason? Do you completely freeze up and blow one of your early selections on Cameron Dicker?
If it's Option No. 3, you may need more help than this column can offer. If you're more prone to carry out one of the first two moves, don't worry: I've got you.
I've selected what I consider to be the best two-round start for each slot in a 12-team snake draft. It contains just about every permutation of running back, wide receiver and tight end you can think of. No, there are no quarterbacks here. You shouldn't be thinking about that until at least the third round. (Even that might be too soon.)
While I've landed on specific names for each draft position, think of this more as a guide than a gospel. The chances that your draft goes exactly like this are slim. Instead, look at some of the names on either side of your draft slot to keep in your back pocket just in case you find yourself getting punched in the mouth sniped.
Picking 1st
1.01: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Did you really think it was going to be anyone else? Chase has become the consensus top pick across fantasy football. For good reason. My guiding light on the first overall pick is that it's the superstar with the narrowest range of outcomes. Through the first four years of Chase's career, his range of outcomes has been about as wide as the eye of a needle. Here are his 17-game averages: 160 targets, 108 receptions, 1,488 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Ain't much changed with the Bengals' offense. If anything, the ceiling might be raised if Cincinnati's defense doesn't improve. cough Pay Trey Hendrickson cough
2.12: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
The vibes around the Dolphins don't feel great, and Hill seems to be a large source of that. Despite the speedster's apparent disgruntlement (is that a word?), he's still one of the most targeted players in the league. Since 2022, only Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb and Garrett Wilson have had more balls thrown their way. According to Next Gen Stats, Tyreek has piled up more than 40 percent of Miami's air yards in his three seasons with the team. It's been a while since Hill has been this discounted in fantasy drafts, but the volume alone means he's in the running for WR1 status in 2025.
Picking 2nd
1.02: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
We officially know how to pronounce his name. We've been familiar with his game for two seasons. In 2024, Robinson garnered more than 40 percent of Atlanta's touches and more than 13 percent of the team's targets. That second figure ranked third among all running backs. Add in a 75 percent snap share with no real backfield competition, and it's hard to argue against the third-year pro being the first rusher off fantasy boards.
2.11: Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
I'm of two minds about the tight end position in fantasy. I tend to get one early, because I hate the idea of streaming and praying that your guy scores a touchdown. That said, I don't love spending a second-round pick on one because of the opportunity cost of missing out on a high-level player at another position. But if you're going to take the leap on a onesie position without much depth, Bowers is a solid bet. Last year, his target share (25.9 percent) was ninth-best among all players and he had the second-most air yards among tight ends, per NGS. There's another tight end I like slightly more -- stay tuned! -- but Bowers falling out of the top three at his position would be a shock.
Picking 3rd
1.03: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Last season, fantasy drafters downgraded Jefferson over fears that Sam Darnold wouldn't be able to consistently get him the ball. Darnold went on to have a career season, while Jefferson was his usual, hyper-productive self. This year, we're not prone to making the same mistake. Even if presumed Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy is an unknown quantity at the NFL level, Jefferson has proven to be quarterback-proof. Not to mention, head coach Kevin O'Connell has shown that he can put his signal-callers in a position to be successful. That starts with making sure Minnesota's best playmaker gets the ball as often as possible.
2.10: Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen's return to Los Angeles might have some fantasy drafters worried about whether McConkey can build on his excellent rookie campaign. Will the veteran dislodge the second-year player from the slot, where he logged 65 percent of his snaps last year? Possibly. The good news is that McConkey was targeted on 30 percent of his routes when he lined up wide in 2024 and averaged more than 12 yards per catch in those situations. Allen does have a history with Justin Herbert, but it seems unlikely that the 33-year-old will return to an alpha role in an offense that's different than the one he left. Then again, who's to say there isn't room for two 100-target receivers in the Bolts' offense? Either way, McConkey seems poised to crack the low-end WR1 ranks this year.
Picking 4th
1.04: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
In the past, I've advocated for David Montgomery as the Lions' back to draft. Not because I disliked Gibbs, but because Montgomery had a better draft price with similar production. The times … they are a-changing. Even before Montgomery missed Detroit's final three regular season games with a knee injury, Gibbs was completing a backfield takeover. 2025 figures to bring more of the same. If the dynamic third-year back can increase his snap share while maintaining (or even bettering) his 12 percent target share, a top 3 fantasy RB finish is well within the range of outcomes.
2.09: Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Williams feels like one of the more underrated backs in the early parts of drafts. Despite fantasy managers' wishcasting other backs to take more snaps, Sean McVay remains a one-running back coach. Williams' 81 percent snap share was tops among running backs last year. He trailed only Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson in total touches. The recent contract extension shows that the team is committed to him for the near term. The only thing that could derail this is ball security (five fumbles in 2024). He should probably be going earlier, but this feels like a discounted pick with big upside.
Picking 5th
1.05: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
I'm still deciphering what George Pickens meant when he referred to himself and Lamb as the Mario Bros. What I do know is that CeeDee has been one of the most heavily targeted receivers in the league since he was drafted in 2020. In his first five campaigns, Lamb has averaged 144 targets, 99 receptions, 1,268 yards and eight touchdowns per year. Adding a dynamic talent like Pickens should only help divert defenses' attention, which would provide more opportunities for the top target in one of the NFL's pass-heaviest offenses.
2.08: Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs moved from Vegas to Green Bay and kept on gobbling up touches. He was one of just nine players with more than 300 touches and passed that plateau for the third time in six NFL seasons. The only thing that prevents him from achieving true workhorse status is the existence of Emanuel Wilson. Last year, Wilson earned nearly 25 percent of the snaps and about 20 percent of the carries. Nonetheless, Jacobs is easily the RB1 among the Pack's backs, and his nose for the end zone (three seasons with double-digit touchdowns) means he has fantasy RB1 upside. By the way, he also caught his first career TD pass last year. We're not about to confuse him with Christian McCaffrey ... but I guess that's a thing now.
Picking 6th
1.06: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
We've come a long way in a short time. After the 2021 campaign, many questioned whether St. Brown was for real or if he was the beneficiary of a slew of late-season Lions injuries. Fast forward a few years, and fantasy managers are worshipping at the altar of the Sun God. That's what happens when you post three straight seasons with 100-plus catches and 1,100-plus yards, while scoring 28 total touchdowns. We might see some changes to this offense following Ben Johnson's departure, but St. Brown's standing atop the target pecking order should remain absolutely secure.
2.07: Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Yep, that's right: I have McBride going ahead of last year's overall TE1, Brock Bowers. The two players weren't separated by much in terms of targets, receptions and yards. Bowers won the touchdown battle, 5-2. But touchdowns are fickle beasts. McBride's low scoring total wasn't from a lack of effort. He was tied for the lead at the position with nine end zone targets last year and feels like a strong candidate for positive regression in 2025. If you're going to spend big on tight end, McBride feels like the best option.
Picking 7th
1.07: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
It's taken some time, but McCaffrey is returning to his usual place in the first round. He's coming off a lingering injury and is one step closer to 30 and the Dreaded Age Cliff, which is why you won't see him hanging around the top three picks like he did for many years. Yet a healthy McCaffrey is still a workhorse. In his three fully healthy games last year, CMC saw at least 80 percent of the snaps. Recency bias seems to have suppressed McCaffrey's ADP, but people are realizing that backs with this level of volume are hard to find and responding accordingly.
2.06: Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It didn't take long to realize that Irving was going to become the first mate in the Bucs' backfield. If anything, it felt like the Tampa Bay coaching staff was late to the party. By Week 12, it appeared the takeover was complete, and the rookie had become RB1 over incumbent Rachaad White. This year, we won't have the awkward weeks of waiting for Irving to earn the lion's share of the backfield work -- especially if the Bucs are truly enamored with him and plan to get him more receiving work. For what it's worth, Irving calls himself a top-five running back. I respect his confidence, but I'll wait a little longer to pull the trigger on drafting him.
Picking 8th
1.08: Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
I'm not blind to the fact that Saquon had an outsized role in a top-seven offense last year. However, I haven't been shy about saying I'm staying away from Barkley this year -- especially at cost. The follow-up seasons of players who've run for 2,000 yards have historically been disappointing. The Eagles were also shockingly run-heavy last year. Their 621 rushing attempts were 67 more than the next-closest team. It's hard to imagine a world where Jalen Hurts and the passing game aren't more involved this year, which takes touches away from Barkley. It's still possible that he eclipses 300 touches this year, but there are other backs that project to have higher ceilings.
2.05: Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
London has always been a target magnet, averaging 128 in his three NFL seasons. Last year, however, he finally made the statistical leap with 100 catches, more than 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns. London has shown continued progression despite lackluster quarterback play and has worked himself into the WR1 tier. There's no guarantee that Michael Penix Jr. is the skeleton key to fully unlock London's immense potential, but it's hard to see him backsliding from a 29 percent target share and 38 percent air yards share.
Picking 9th
1.09: Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Nacua went out and had a historic rookie season in 2023. Despite missing five games early in his sophomore campaign, he ultimately produced at an even higher per-game rate in 2024. That should give everyone supreme confidence that Nacua is making space for himself among the elites at the position. Could the arrival of Davante Adams in the Rams' offense have a negative impact on Nacua? Sure. But we've seen Sean McVay's passing game support two elite receivers before (see: Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp and Kupp/Nacua). The bigger concern might be The Mystery of Matthew Stafford and His Wonky Back. Even if the 37-year-old is unavailable, though, Los Angeles can trot out Jimmy Garoppolo, who led his teams to multiple conference championship games and a Super Bowl berth. The ceiling might come down a touch with Jimmy G under center, but Nacua's high floor should remain strong.
2.04: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
The post-NFL draft hype machine initially pushed Jeanty's ADP into the upper part of the first round. Since then, sanity has prevailed. A second-round draft price isn't an indictment on the rookie's talent; it's a comment on a Raiders offense that was one of the least productive in the NFL last year. Wholesale changes in the coaching staff and a new quarterback (hi, Geno Smith!) are reasons to believe the Silver and Black can be more fruitful this year. And Jeanty should see the overwhelming share of touches -- even with veteran Raheem Mostert now in Sin City.
Picking 10th
1.10: Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Nabers is the latest in a recent string of LSU wide receivers to come to the NFL and immediately dominate. His 170 targets last year were partially a function of the Giants not having a true secondary pass-catching threat (scoffs at Wan'Dale Robinson turning 140 targets into 699 receiving yards). But a bigger part of Nabers' success came from him being #GoodAtFootball. Now, ask yourself a question: What has really changed this season? Big Blue is hoping for better QB play after replacing "Janiel Dones" with Russell Wilson. But that could only be incremental. There still aren't any real alternatives at receiver or tight end. Don't expect the Giants to be an upper-echelon offense, but Nabers being in the neighborhood of 170 targets again seems very likely.
2.03: Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
At this time last year, fantasy enthusiasts were hesitant to draft any Texans receivers because it felt like there were too many mouths to feed and the ADPs were too high for our liking. In the end, the correct answer was Nico Collins. This year, the test is a bit easier. Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is rehabbing a brutal knee injury that appears likely to keep him off the field in 2025. The Iowa State duo of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel is interesting, but both are more likely late-round upside plays. And we've already seen the best of Christian Kirk. If Joe Mixon's foot issue lingers, the Texans are going to have to lean on the passing game. Collins will be about as high-volume as receivers come.
Picking 11th
1.11: Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
We all wished for Henry to go to Baltimore once he hit free agency. We got our wish, and it turned out to be everything we'd hoped for. In his first season in the Ravens' Nest, El Tractorcito nearly hit 2,000 yards for the second time in his career while tying a career high in scrimmage touchdowns. He could be subject to the same overwork concerns I have with Saquon Barkley. Like Saquon, Henry plays in an offense that's likely to be very prolific. Unlike Saquon, Henry won't have to contend with the "Tush Push" stealing his goal-line opportunities. There is risk, but it's very calculated.
2.02: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas is the guy I have the most trepidation about in the first two rounds. The former LSU star (another one!) was outstanding last year. There were two caveats: A large chunk of his production came late in the season when Jacksonville's offense was decimated by injury. The other is that he was more productive with Mac Jones than Trevor Lawrence. Oh, yeah -- and then there's the Travis Hunter factor. But it's not all worry and woe for Thomas. New head coach and play-caller Liam Coen hopes to bring his offensive magic to Duuu-vaaal. And if the Jags' defense doesn't show any major improvement, look for the aerial attack to be on full display in negative game scripts.
Picking 12th
1.12: De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Did I mention the vibes around the Dolphins' offense feel off this summer? Thankfully (or not), most of the bad juju centers on the QB-WR dynamic. But it seems like Achane has suffered some collateral damage. It was no surprise that he couldn't duplicate the whopping average of 7.8 yards per carry that he posted in 2023, but 4.5 yards per tote ain't too bad. Even more impressive were the 87 targets he registered -- four more than Jaylen Waddle. Achane had already locked up most of the rushing work in 2024. That won't change this year and could slightly tick up after Raheem Mostert took off for Las Vegas. In what feels like a make-or-break year for this Dolphins team as we know it, Achane reaching 300 touches feels very doable.
2.01: A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
You could argue that Brown and Malik Nabers could be flip-flopped, and I wouldn't fight you too much on it. The reason I like Brown more in this spot is because DeVonta Smith is a human that exists and is good at catching footballs. Nabers doesn't have any such competition. Despite Philly having the fewest passing attempts and fourth-fewest passing yards, Brown still went over 1,000 yards in 13 games. It feels impossible for the Eagles to have such low passing volume again this year. It's hard to say an early second-round pick can outperform his ADP, but Arthur Juan just might be the one.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who is rocking a new look for the new season. Send him your grooming tips or fantasy football questions on Bluesky @marcasg.bsky.social or TikTok at marcasgrant.
