With the regular season almost upon us and more fantasy drafts taking place every day, it's a valuable exercise to go through some of the major statistical categories and forecast how players could fare in 2026.
Which quarterback will march his team down the field with ease week to week? Who's likely to churn out the most rushing yards, find the end zone with the greatest regularity or work their sack artistry at a level above all others?
There's naturally a degree of unpredictability to such predictions; for as great as he's always been, not many saw Matthew Stafford leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns for the first time in his career at 37 years old. But there are tea leaves of sorts to read, in the form of team situations, opportunity changes and past metrics.
Below are my predictions for the top five finishers in 11 key statistical categories, with the names included very likely to vie for real-life awards and light up fantasy scoreboards.
Passing yards
REST OF TOP FIVE:
2) Jared Goff
3) Dak Prescott
One of the surest paths to quarterbacks racking up passing yards is commanding a top-end offense that must frequently compensate for a subpar defense. Last year, Burrow's Bengals and Prescott's Cowboys threw the ball the second- and third-most, respectively, while fielding defenses in the bottom three in points allowed. Both teams took measures to improve defensively over the offseason, but Cincinnati and Dallas will still lean heavily on the pass, considering their signal-callers and pass-catching duos. Burrow projects above Prescott as the better QB overall, plus his defense didn't undergo nearly as much transformation as the Cowboys' unit.
Sandwiched in between them is Goff. Always a groomsman, never a groom, Goff has finished second in passing yards for three straight years. The extensive sample size includes working under multiple coordinators and playing opposite a wide range of defenses in terms of quality. He's incredibly consistent, and it doesn't hurt that Dan Campbell has no interest in taking his foot off opponents' throats when leading. The Herbert selection is all about the Mike McDaniel effect. Offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt returning should also be a massive boon to Herbert's protection, despite center Tyler Biadasz's season-ending injury. Mayfield, who will be playing for a contract, threw for 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons as a Buccaneer. He was on pace for 4,077 through eight games last year before injuries (both to Mayfield and those around him) contributed to Tampa Bay's spiral.
Passing touchdowns
REST OF TOP FIVE:
2) Dak Prescott
4) Brock Purdy
Giving Burrow the league lead in passing yards and passing touchdowns comes pretty close to predicting he will win AP NFL Most Valuable Player. Let's call it manifesting. His lack of scrambling ability likely prevents him from being the fantasy MVP, but he'll be up there. Burrow has so much firepower at his disposal, and the Bengals don't have a goal-line back who necessitates they go away from Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in close. Prescott is similarly stacked at receiver with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. In 2025, Dak was second in inside-the-20 passing attempts (99) and third when inside the 10 (48), per Pro Football Reference.
Stafford had a season for the ages last year with 46 TD passes. He essentially used Davante Adams as a cheat code for six near the goal line, and that could again be a recipe for success. Last season was his first time pacing the NFL in the category, though, and passing touchdowns isn't a stat that typically sticks year-to-year -- hence, his slight slide in this ranking. Purdy has found some consistency in that regard, posting a TD percentage of 7.0 or better in three of his four seasons. He also might have the best pass-catching corps of his career following the additions of Mike Evans, De'Zhaun Stribling and Deebo Samuel. See the previous section for Herbert, who tied Prescott for the fifth-most dropbacks per game last year (38.7) and whose full breakout feels like it's now or never as he partners with the OC who helped make Tua Tagovailoa a Pro Bowler.
QB rushing yards
REST OF TOP FIVE:
2) Malik Willis
4) Josh Allen
5) Drake Maye
The Commanders likely want to make it a point of emphasis to keep Daniels healthy after he missed all but seven games in 2025, but the third-year quarterback can still pick up chunk gains at will while focusing on getting down or out of bounds before contact. He's an electric talent in his scrambling prime, and Washington's concerns at offensive line following Laremy Tunsil's torn triceps could force him to display that trait often. Willis is already an able and willing runner -- he amassed 174 rushing yards over three starts with Green Bay in the past two seasons -- and using his legs might become an integral part of the game plan for a Dolphins squad without a ton of proven pass-catching talent.
Jackson led the NFL in this category in 2023 and 2024 before injuries limited him to a career-low 349 yards last season. He didn't seem to have his legs under him at any point in 2025 and could potentially reel it in a little to avoid similar injury struggles this season. Even still, he's Lamar. Allen is always a threat to leave destruction in his wake on a few punishing scrambles a game. He topped all QBs with 112 carries a year ago. Third on that list with 103, Maye also has shown he has the chops to tuck it and run to great success.
QB rushing touchdowns
REST OF TOP FIVE:
2) Jalen Hurts
4) Malik Willis
5) Jaxson Dart
The top two are obvious. Allen and Hurts have taken turns leading the league in quarterback rushing touchdowns for five years now. Allen is first in NFL history with 79, while Hurts sits third with 63. Allen gets the nod in 2026 for likely leading the more explosive offense, a group that gets to enjoy consistency under Joe Brady despite the head-coaching change. Philly's offensive output under new coordinator Sean Mannion is still a question mark, especially after the A.J. Brown trade.
Daniels, my QB rushing leader, isn't built like Allen or Hurts to force his way into the end zone, but he's a prolific enough runner to crack the top five. The same goes for Willis: Across the five games in which he played at least 50% of snaps for the Packers, Willis tallied three rushing scores. Dart missed out on a mention in QB rushing yards because John Harbaugh seems capable -- at least to some degree -- of convincing Dart to minimize the risks he opens himself up to. However, Dart scored nine times on the ground as a rookie, and it's difficult to envision him ever backing down when the goal line is in sight.
Non-QB rushing yards
REST OF TOP FIVE:
3) Jahmyr Gibbs
4) James Cook
Taylor lost the rushing crown to Cook by just 36 yards in 2025 after tailing off from a torrid start to the campaign. Over the Colts' first 10 games, Taylor produced outings of 165, 102, 123, 153 and 244 rushing yards. That was when Indy was operating at its peak. With Daniel Jones looking fully back from his Achilles tear, those types of performances are again on the menu. Robinson has enjoyed back-to-back 1,400-yard rushing seasons and could be in line for more work after Atlanta replaced Tyler Allgeier (157 touches in 2025) with Brian Robinson, just as Jahmyr Gibbs will take on an even larger load in Detroit's backfield, sharing it with Isiah Pacheco versus David Montgomery.
Cook is perennially underrated and could absolutely come close to matching his league/career-high 1,621 rushing yards from 2025. He remains an ultra-efficient, integral part of an offense that's never finished outside the top 10 in yards during his Bills tenure. Although he only played 56.4% of offensive snaps last season, camp reports have suggested he will be more involved in Buffalo's passing attack, which could keep him on the field more in general. Hampton is a dark horse to mount a charge up the rushing leaderboard, especially if he receives the De'Von Achane treatment. For anyone concerned about Mike McDaniel's “hot hand” comment, the OC is the type to enjoy riling up fantasy managers. He isn't likely to take the ball away from a running back he compared to Hall of Famer Terrell Davis too often.
Non-QB rushing touchdowns
REST OF TOP FIVE:
4) James Cook
The same argument for Gibbs being in the mix for the rushing-yards title applies here. The 24-year-old has scored 29 TDs on the ground since 2024, and that was with the now-departed David Montgomery taking 51 goal-line carries during that timeframe, per NFL Pro. Henry led the league in goal-line carries last year with 35. He's a seemingly ageless monster truck on what figures to be a top offense. He'll see plenty of opportunities in close and is still perfectly capable of breaking some long ones for six. Taylor logged the second-most red zone totes (70) and the most red zone yards (204) in 2025. He's also led the league in rushing scores in two of his six NFL seasons.
While Cook loses out on goal-line carries to Josh Allen, he's developed a nose for the end zone, with 28 rushing TDs since 2024. He plays in a more trustworthy offense than Bijan Robinson and is more locked in as his team's RB1 than Kyren Williams, two players who could've shown up in this category. Fantasy managers everywhere were frustrated last year by the Seahawks frequently riding with Walker to get down the field, only to turn to Zach Charbonnet at the goal line. Charbonnet ranked fifth in goal-line attempts in 2025 with 27, while Walker only saw 12. That shouldn't be a concern now that KWIII is on the Chiefs. Walker should play a pivotal role in Kansas City's offense, one led by the great Patrick Mahomes, with a 36-year-old Travis Kelce and uncertain depth at wide receiver. Walker should have plenty of chances to be the guy to score.
EDITOR'S UPDATE: Green Bay's Josh Jacobs originally ranked fourth in this category but was removed after the NFL placed Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List on Sunday.
Receptions
REST OF TOP FIVE:
2) Puka Nacua
4) Brock Bowers
Chase sat a game in 2025 and still paced the NFL with 185 targets. He had to deal with the arduous journey from Jake Browning to Joe Flacco amid Joe Burrow's injury and still trailed Nacua, the receptions leader with 129, by just four catches. The Bengals throw a ton, and Burrow targets Chase a ton, which, after a little rudimentary math, equates to a ton of catches for Chase (assuming both sides of the QB-WR tandem stay healthy). Nacua could just as easily lead the league in receptions, but it's tough to repeat. Michael Thomas was the last to do it, back in 2018 and '19. That said, if Nacua continues to be targeted at a rate anywhere close to 36.4% of his routes -- his league-best figure from last year, per Next Gen Stats -- he obviously has a chance.
St. Brown always enjoys a sizeable chunk of Detroit's passing offense. He finished the 2025 campaign second behind Smith-Njigba (33.9%) in total team target share at 29.6%, hasn't fallen under 25% since 2022 and was the only pass catcher other than Chase to see 170-plus targets (172) in 2025. Nothing this offseason has changed the Lions' receiving focus. Trey McBride set a single-season tight end record with 126 receptions in 2025. This year, that could be Bowers. Whenever No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza takes the QB1 reins for the Raiders, he'll settle in best with easy targets to Bowers. Kirk Cousins spending time under center wouldn't be bad for Bowers, either. The 38-year-old's arm is best suited to work in the shorter-to-intermediate areas Bowers lives in. After winning AP Offensive Player of the Year, JSN is a regression candidate as Seattle figures things out under first-time offensive coordinator Brian Fleury. Regardless, he'll be the focal point of the Seahawks' passing attack.
Receiving yards
REST OF TOP FIVE:
5) Brock Bowers
Even if Nacua doesn't end up with the most receptions in the league, he always makes the most of his opportunities. He currently holds the all-time record with an average of 95.3 receiving yards per game. He's also outperformed Chase twice in yards per reception since entering the league in 2023 and never done worse than St. Brown in the category. His total team target share of 27.8% from 2025 could jump another few points if his counterpart, Davante Adams, continues trending toward lower efficiency between the 20s in his age-34 season. Of course, all Nacua projections will need to be revisited if the wideout ultimately receives a suspension from the league following some troubling off-field behavior. Chase and St. Brown have averaged 1,445 receiving yards and 1,393 receiving yards per season, respectively, over the past three years -- and they'll be catching passes from the quarterbacks picked above to finish first and second in passing yards.
Jefferson somehow managed a sixth consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season to begin his career while dealing the calamity that was the Vikings' 2025 quarterback situation. The team is hoping it settled things down by adding Kyler Murray as the new starter. Murray hasn't been much better than a league-average quarterback in the past few years, but that level of play could still be enough of an improvement in Minnesota to get a superstar like Jefferson back to posting superstar numbers. He's had four seasons with 1,400 receiving yards or more and was averaging 15.0 yards per reception through his first five years before falling to 12.5 YPR last season. Bowers managed to reach 1,194 receiving yards in 2023 as a rookie at a position with a notoriously difficult learning curve. Entering Year 3, he is the Raiders offense through the air.
Receiving touchdowns
REST OF TOP FIVE:
2) A.J. Brown
4) Puka Nacua
If it's not clear by now, St. Brown, Chase and Nacua are solid bets to be the top three wide receivers in the league in some order -- both in real life and in fantasy competition. There's no need to get too contrarian.
For all the joking last year about the Rams using a goal-line receiver (Davante Adams) while other teams employed the more traditional goal-line back, St. Brown actually led the league with 35 red zone targets, three more than Adams. He is Jared Goff's go-to player in passing situations as the field shrinks, while Chase has Tee Higgins to contend with and Nacua won't always receive end zone looks in favor of Adams.
Larry David had a spite store; Brown landed in the perfect situation for a spite season. The last time Brown was traded, he followed up with 1,496 yards and 11 TDs as a first-time Eagle in 2022. This offseason, Philly shipped him to New England, where the big-bodied wide receiver has displayed quick chemistry with budding star Drake Maye in a more consistent passing offense than the one he left. Pickens, who trailed St. Brown and Adams in a distant third last year with 23 red zone targets, is in a high-octane offense and has a mega-contract to play for on the franchise tag. Every touchdown will help.
Scrimmage yards
REST OF TOP FIVE:
5) Puka Nacua
Gibbs finished fifth in scrimmage yards last year, behind the three players immediately following him on this list and James Cook. As mentioned before, he's in line for the most logical usage boost of any of them due to David Montgomery's departure. McCaffrey might not appear as explosive as he once was, but he still strikes fear in those who oppose him -- defenses and fantasy managers alike. The 49ers will pile as much work as possible on him. In 2023 and '25, his two full seasons with San Francisco in which he's been healthy, McCaffrey led the league in touches and amassed 2,000-plus scrimmage yards.
Robinson paced all players with 2,298 scrimmage yards last season and boasts the game-breaking ability to lead the way again, but Atlanta's struggle to figure out a quarterback between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. gives reason for pause. While Taylor doesn't possess nearly the same pass-catching prowess as Gibbs, CMC and Robinson, he averages 244.8 receiving yards a year, good enough to elevate him into this grouping if he's to lead the league on the ground. That leaves Nacua, my predicted receiving-yards leader, to represent his fellow pass catchers. He has a bit tougher road to gaudy yardage numbers than the league's many multi-faceted running backs.
Sacks
REST OF TOP FIVE:
5) Abdul Carter
The NFL has witnessed a back-to-back sack king just once this century: T.J. Watt led the league in the category in 2020 and '21. The last to do it before that was Reggie White in 1987 and '88. Far be it from me to suggest the new record-holder for sacks in a season can't top the leaderboard again, though. Garrett collected 23 sacks last year and has actually landed in a better situation with the Rams. He should be able to pin his ears back far more often while playing with leads in Los Angeles, as compared to his time in Cleveland, and he has a stronger supporting cast to help draw focus.
Anderson is really coming into his own and still has Danielle Hunter operating opposite him to keep offensive lines honest. Anderson, a first-time All-Pro last year, posted a pressure percentage of 20.0, trailing only Micah Parsons (20.2) among edge rushers with at least 100 pass rushes, per Next Gen Stats. He got a little unlucky with only a 2.8% sack rate, so he's due to cash in more on the havoc he's so good at wreaking. Hutchinson is another year past the broken fibula and tibia he suffered in 2024, and he already managed to notch 14.5 sacks while pacing the league with 90 pressures the season directly after his injury. Still only heading into his age-24 season, Tuipulotu's sack totals have jumped from 4.5 to 8.5 to 13. Even another marginal increase would put him in contention for the sack title. Carter's inclusion will raise some eyebrows, but he actually managed a higher pressure rate as a rookie (15.4%) than his teammate Brian Burns (12.9%), who finished second in the league with 16.5 sacks. Carter also ranked first in the NFL with 45 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds). He just happened to only get home four times. If Carter is over his rookie growing pains, a breakout is imminent.
