NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for their personnel, their opponents and their evolving game situations. My goal is to be YOUR analytics department. I want to work for you by providing a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful ... or the most misunderstood.
Today, we're taking a midseason look at win projections for all 32 teams for the 2022 season.
As always, let me know if your eye test is picking up on something interesting, or if there's a stat/trend you'd like me to take a deeper look at. You can hit me up on Twitter @CFrelund. As with any great analytics department, the more collaborative this is, the more value we can create.
The lines below provided by FanDuel are current as of 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 9 unless otherwise noted below.
- Over/under Wins: 14.5
- Make Playoffs: N/A
- Win Division: -390
- Win Conference: +185
- Win Super Bowl: +500
My win share model, which is driven by computer vision, forecasts Jalen Hurts to finish the season with league-leading number of a 6.58 games, narrowly edging out Josh Allen's forecasted figure of 6.49.
- Over/under Wins: 11.5
- Make Playoffs: -20000
- Win Division: -2200
- Win Conference: +600
- Win Super Bowl: +1600
Justin Jefferson might not have the most receiving touchdowns in the league this season, but he has a real shot at being the most valuable receiver by win share (which includes the off-ball impact of a wideout, including the ability to command extra defensive attention and inherently free up teammates). The Vikings star finishes in the top five in receiver win share in 88.4 percent of simulations. Meanwhile, according to Next Gen Stats, Jefferson leads the league with 187 receiving yards over expected on passes of 10-plus air yards.
- Over/under Wins: 11.5
- Make Playoffs: -3000
- Win Division: +440
- Win Conference: +550
- Win Super Bowl: +1300
The Cowboys pace the NFL with a 35.2 pressure rate, per Next Gen Stats. Of their 103 total pressures, 33 have resulted in a sack, giving Dallas the NFL's highest sack rate by almost two percentage points at 11.3 percent. (The next-closest team, New England, sits at 9.6 percent.)
- Over/under Wins: 9.5
- Make Playoffs: -380
- Win Division: -135
- Win Conference: +500
- Win Super Bowl: +1200
Just for fun, I ran my model without Christian McCaffrey on the 49ers and got 9.8 wins. I also played around with the Niners' Super Bowl chances with and without CMC. With McCaffrey, San Francisco has the 11th-highest Super Bowl win percentage at 5.3, which is the top mark in the NFC West. Without CMC, the 49ers win in just 3.8 percent of simulations, ranking 19th.
- Over/under Wins: 10.5
- Make Playoffs: -250
- Win Division: +1300
- Win Conference: +2400
- Win Super Bowl: +8000
Saquon Barkley's exceptional bounce-back season has lifted New York's offense in a multitude of ways, including fueling the play-action pass game. QB Daniel Jones boasts sparkling figures off play action: 76.1 completion percentage, 4:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 114.5 passer rating. Without play-action? Jones' numbers plummet: 59.7 completion percentage, 2:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 75.5 passer rating. Jones is also the only QB with five or more wins and fewer than 60 pass attempts when leading in 2022 (he only has 22 pass attempts when holding a lead this season). This is a smart strategy that first-year coach Brian Daboll has converted into wins.
- Over/under Wins: 9.5
- Make Playoffs: -250
- Win Division: +150
- Win Conference: +1700
- Win Super Bowl: +3400
Only two franchises this season boast three rookies who have impacted team win share by more than a combined two games. One is the Jets, whose rookie class has been celebrated ever since it came together in the 2022 NFL Draft. The other team is the Seahawks -- specifically, the combination of running back Kenneth Walker III and corners Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. It's also notable that Geno Smith leads the NFL with a 73.1 completion percentage and also paces the league with nine deep passing touchdowns (20-plus air yards), per NGS.
- Over/under Wins: 8.5
- Make Playoffs: -235
- Win Division: -210
- Win Conference: +750
- Win Super Bowl: +1900
Currently below .500, the Buccaneers haven't exactly played up to expectations in 2022. That said, they still sit atop the NFC South -- sharing the throne with Atlanta at the moment -- and improved health in the defensive backfield should make a difference going forward. Fun fact: Tom Brady is the only qualified passer who's yet to throw an interception against zone coverage this season. The G.O.A.T. actually has just one total pick, which came back in Week 1.
- Over/under Wins: 7.5
- Make Playoffs: +215
- Win Division: +320
- Win Conference: +6000
- Win Super Bowl: +14000
The Falcons' main driver of success is their fourth-ranked ground attack, which includes the spry legs of quarterback Marcus Mariota. QB rushing capabilities have impacted games across the NFL more than in any other season in my 20-year historical model, and Mariota ranks in the top seven at the position in carries (60), rushing yards (304) and rushing TDs (3). Also, Cordarrelle Patterson is one of just four players with at least 10 rushing TDs and five receiving TDs since the beginning of 2021.
- Over/under Wins: N/A
- Make Playoffs: N/A
- Win Division: +1100
- Win Conference: +2100
- Win Super Bowl: +5000
The Rams' offensive line has been a sieve this season. Los Angeles' strategy for keeping pressure at bay clearly isn't working, and it's costing the team games. According to PFF's grading, the Rams' pass blocking is tied for 29th. (My models have them ranking 31st.) Matthew Stafford has been under pressure on 32.8 percent of dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate in the league. (Stafford was pressured on just 22 percent of dropbacks in 2021.)
- Over/under Wins: 7.5
- Make Playoffs: +570
- Win Division: +31000
- Win Conference: +11000
- Win Super Bowl: +28000
The Commanders' defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks at the second-highest rate this season: 33.7, per NGS, trailing only Dallas. Washington is also the league's most efficient unit on third down at 51.1 percent.
- Over/under Wins: 6.5
- Make Playoffs: +470
- Win Division: +2000
- Win Conference: +4400
- Win Super Bowl: +16000
Computer vision shows that the space Green Bay's offense takes up -- i.e., how much the Packers spread out a defense and create separation -- is far more condensed this season versus the previous three. This is particularly true on first and second down. (I sorted it like that to examine what this looks like when you exclude obvious passing downs.) This helps explain why Aaron Rodgers is throwing at or behind the line of scrimmage so often -- and it helps to contextualize why split-safety coverage shells are now an issue for this passing offense. In 2020 and 2021, Rodgers racked up a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio and 99.6 passer rating against split-safety shells. This year? Those figures have sunk to a 3:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 77.9 passer rating.
- Over/under Wins: 6.5
- Make Playoffs: +460
- Win Division: +650
- Win Conference: +4400
- Win Super Bowl: +13000
I can make a strong case for Chris Olave as Offensive Rookie of the Year. His 43 receptions and 618 yards lead all first-year wideouts. Also, he has four-plus receptions and 50-plus receiving yards in seven straight games. In the past 15 seasons, only Odell Beckham Jr. has strung together a longer rookie streak of hitting those figures. OBJ had nine straight games back in 2014, when he earned OROY honors.
- Over/under Wins: 6.5
- Make Playoffs: +1550
- Win Division: +7000
- Win Conference: +22000
- Win Super Bowl: +60000
Justin Fields has rushed for at least 45 yards in seven straight games and has 602 total rushing yards so far this season (which ranks 11th among all players). He's averaging 7.7 yards per carry since Week 3 (tops in the NFL, min. 25 carries) and designed QB rushes are working exceptionally well. The only other NFL players since 1950 with 10-plus passing TDs and 600-plus rushing yards through the first nine games of a season: Lamar Jackson (who's done it three times), Michael Vick and Kyler Murray.
- Over/under Wins: 6.5
- Make Playoffs: +1300
- Win Division: +4400
- Win Conference: +10000
- Win Super Bowl: +18000
Kyler Murray's statistical splits with and without DeAndre Hopkins are pretty dramatic. In Weeks 1 through 6, when Hopkins was suspended, Murray had a 65.1 completion percentage, an 81.8 passer rating and averaged one passing TD per game. Over the past three weeks, Kyler's completing 70.4 of his passes with a 98.7 passer rating, while averaging two passing TDs per game.
- Over/under Wins: 5.5
- Make Playoffs: +1600
- Win Division: +5000
- Win Conference: +22000
- Win Super Bowl: +60000
Kerby Joseph, a third-round rookie at safety, is a bright spot on a defense with some areas to address this offseason. Stepping in as a starter for the injured Tracy Walker III, Joseph has two forced fumbles, two pressures and two interceptions. PFF grades Joseph as the third-best safety this season among those who have played at least five games -- and the best in coverage.
- Over/under Wins: 4.5
- Make Playoffs: +3300
- Win Division: +3700
- Win Conference: +55000
- Win Super Bowl: +100000
In tracking D.J. Moore's routes and his adjustments to where his targets have been, I see a far more precise and reliable receiver than his stat line might suggest. In fact, on all deep routes, his route tracking looks a lot more like a guy who would rank in the top 10 in statistical output with a playoff-level QB. (I made a fake playoff QB who was an amalgamation of the past five seasons of postseason signal-callers to create an average standard.) Need some evidence? Moore hauled in the longest throw in the NGS era when he caught the 62-yard touchdown pass from P.J. Walker in Week 8. That toss traveled 67.6 yards of air distance.
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