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Fantasy playoffs season has arrived as Week 14 kicks off! Which players will go over the top to keep your squad's championship hopes alive? Check out who should take full advantage of favorable matchups this weekend.
Expectations were sky-high for Brock Bowers in the pre-draft process and the rookie TE has still shattered them. Bowers has racked up 100+ receiving yards and at least one receiving TD in two of his last three games. Not impressed yet? All other rookie TEs in the last five seasons have combined for two such games, per Next Gen Stats.
Bowers’ play -- and his usage -- have ascended to an elite level in recent weeks. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Month had a November to remember and has garnered 10+ targets in six of his last eight outings, while snagging a TD in three of the previous four. His 29.8% target rate ranks seventh among all TEs with at least 100 targets in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Coming off a career-high day on Black Friday, Bowers is the NFL’s top deep threat at his position.
In Week 14, Bowers will face the Buccaneers, who rank No. 30 in pass defense and have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Bowers leads all TEs with 590 receiving yards from detached (wide or slot) alignments, and Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most yards per attempt (9.2) to TEs from detached alignments this season. Bowers’ strong rookie campaign should continue to surge on Sunday. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Bowers’ success on slot alignments.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Bowers needs just four fantasy points to move into third all-time on the fantasy points leaderboard for rookie tight ends -- and just 33 to pass Sam LaPorta for most in history. He’s been a revelation and a rock among tight ends, earning a rare “must-start” label at the position. And this week, Bowers draws the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends in 2024. Todd Bowles’ defense surrendered 20+ fantasy points to Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts … and could very likely add Bowers to that list this Sunday.
Buffalo’s James Cook should cook in Week 14. The Bills RB’s special season has been overshadowed by Josh Allen’s MVP bid, but Cook is making history in his own right. Cook, who has scored a TD in all but three outings while never surrendering a fumble this season, is just the second player in Bills franchise history to have more than 10 rushing TDs through his first 11 games of a season, per Next Gen Stats.
The Bills’ big men have played a huge role in Cook’s success. Buffalo’s starting offensive line has played a league-leading 82.1% of snaps together this season, used jumbo personnel (6+ OL) on a league-high 15.0% of plays and average 6.83 yards of width this season, which ranks second in the NFL. That has opened holes inside for Cook, who is rushing between the tackles on a career-high 56.3% of his carries this season. It’s been a recipe for success as Bills RBs have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 28.0% of runs between the tackles, the league’s second-lowest mark. Meanwhile, the Rams hold the second-lowest run stuff rate (8.3%) on such carries.
Los Angeles’s 28th-ranked run defense is giving up 144.2 rushing yards per game, on average, but the unit’s problems run deeper. Over the past two weeks, the Rams are giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. And offenses are noticing. Running backs have tallied seven red zone touches in that span, which bodes well for Cook’s chances to increase his TD total. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Cook rushing between the tackles.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Cook has finished outside the top 30 fantasy running backs on the week just once this entire season and has been inside the top 12 a whopping seven times. He’s been a touchdown machine -- 12 so far on the year -- and is averaging 81.6 scrimmage yards per game. Sunday brings a matchup with the Rams, who have struggled to stop the run all season -- the only defenses to see more rush attempts per game are the Panthers and Colts, and this was the team to surrender 302 scrimmage yards and 46.2 fantasy points to Saquon Barkley a couple of weeks ago. Expect another RB1 week from the Bills back.
Although the Bengals are struggling in the win department, Joe Burrow is arguably having his best season as a pro. Burrow leads the NFL with 3,337 passing yards and 30 TDs through the air, while tossing only five interceptions. Cincinnati has posted 33+ points in six games this season and Burrow has been an offensive juggernaut in the last month: in each of the Bengals past four games, November’s AFC Offensive Player of the Month has thrown at least 250 yards and three TDs.
Week 14’s matchup against Dallas should allow Burrow to continue to flex his statistical superiority. The Cowboys are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and hold an NFL-worst -111-point differential at home. Micah Parsons and Co. like to bring the heat, as Dallas is one of only two teams to pressure opposing QBs on over half of their third-down dropbacks (50.9%), per Next Gen Stats. That should not be a problem for Burrow, whose 48.3% success rate against third-down blitzes ranks No. 3 among 46 QBs to face at least 50 such blitzes since Burrow entered the league in 2020.
The Bengals hold advantages over America’s Team in nine of NFL Pro’s 12 passing categories. One key area to watch is Burrow’s propensity for finding Ja'Marr Chase deep. The former college teammates have connected on 11 TDs on downfield passes, five more than the next closest QB-WR duo. Burrow has the weapons -- and the talent -- to dominate Dallas’ defense. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Burrow being surgical on deep passes.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Despite his team’s defensive struggles resulting in a disappointing 4-8 record, Burrow has been exceptional for Cincinnati and for fantasy. He’s the QB3 on the season, behind Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, and leads the NFL in both passing yards (3,337) and passing touchdowns (30). Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense is barely an echo of what it was in recent years, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. The only full-time starter they’ve held to fewer than 17 fantasy points was C.J. Stroud back in Week 11. With hopes still set on a late-season surge, Burrow and the Bengals should dominate in Dallas.
