Twelve weeks in the books, six more to go! We're on to Week 13 … and it's stuffed with Thanksgiving goodness and exciting storylines! In fact, this might be the most exciting Thanksgiving slate I can remember, and you can watch all three with NFL+ Premium.
To better understand and decipher the storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are the three biggest keys — one for each of the Turkey Day games — with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect!
Jared Goff and Jordan Love battling Micah Parsons and Aidan Hutchinson
The Thanksgiving slate opens with an epic NFC North divisional battle that could be decided by the Pro Bowl pass rushers leading their respective defenses. Through 12 weeks, Micah Parsons and Aidan Hutchinson are tied with each other for the most QB pressures in the NFL (60). Parsons has drawn a double-team on a whopping 21.3% of his pass rushes, while Hutchinson's 28 quick QB pressures trail only Nik Bonitto. By almost any measure, they're two of the biggest game wreckers in the league and will be looking to wreck Turkey Day for Jared Goff and Jordan Love, respectively.
And with these particular QBs, pressure matters more than most. They are NFL Pro's most efficient (Packers) and second-most efficient (Lions) passing offenses when not pressured, but drop to 14th and 20th, respectively, when pressured. When kept clean, both Goff and Love both in the top five qualified passers in completion rate, yards per attempt, passer rating and EPA/dropback. But when the pass rush gets home, both tend to struggle. Love's 64.0-point decline in passer rating and 35.5% decline in completion rate when pressured are both the largest in the league — and Goff's 55.8-point and 33.6% drop-offs in those metrics are third-largest and fifth-largest, respectively. Simply put, few quarterbacks are more negatively affected by pressure than these two — which means this game could be decided by which pass rush wins more often.
Fantasy Fallout: Both these quarterbacks are just outside the fringe of starter range this week, as both will face tough challenges against the opposing pass rush. You can still start the reliable pass-catchers … but after inconsistency from Jameson Williams and the entire Green Bay group, that's just Amon-Ra St. Brown and the running backs.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs air assault versus the defenseless Cowboys
It's been a bit of an inconsistent year for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. While his 270.6 passing yards per game is the second-most in the league, behind only Jameis Winston, he's thrown just one touchdown pass over his last three games and has seven games with one or fewer TD pass all year. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs are 2-5 in those seven games, so Mahomes' ability to find the end zone — and not just compile completions between the 20s — will be big against Dallas on Thursday. Here's the good news: the Cowboys pass defense is among the softest in the league, just about any way you slice it.
Dallas ranks 28th — also known as fifth-worst — in NFL Pro's overall pass defense efficiency, and bottom three specifically against deep passing, long passing (extended time to throw), passing with a blitz, passing without play action and passing without pressure. They've allowed the most fantasy points per game to the QB position, including 24+ fantasy points eight times — a list that features such "superstars" as Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett, as well as Jalen Hurts twice. The Cowboys' one hope to slow Mahomes might be interior pressure with Quinnen Williams and Osa Odighizuwa — as the Chiefs QB has struggled under pressure this year — but Kansas City has allowed a 26.2% pressure rate, the second-lowest in the NFL, so that one hope will likely be countered.
Fantasy Fallout: After a stretch of subpar performances, Mahomes isn't just a QB1 in fantasy this week, he's very possibly the QB1 overall. He's an absolute must-start, and that means you can roll out Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce with confidence, and maybe even take some DFS shots on Xavier Worthy or Tyquan Thornton.
Derrick Henry (and Lamar Jackson?) running rampant on the Bengals
Derrick Henry has been solid lately, averaging 92 rushing yards per game since Week 6, with five touchdowns in those six games. But after having 169 yards and two scores on the ground in Week 1, he hasn't had another one of those quintessentially dominant King Henry performances since. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals, NFL Pro's 31st-ranked rushing defense, allowing more fantasy points to running backs than any other team. They've given up just over one full fantasy point per opportunity to RBs, and Henry has averaged 22.3 opportunities per game since that Week 6 shift (with at least 21 opportunities in all six). Moreover, the only reliable way to stop Henry is to contact him behind the line of scrimmage before he builds up momentum — which has happened on 50.8% of his carries this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league (min. 75 carries). Bad news for Cincy: they've contacted opposing running backs behind the line on a league-low 34.6% of rush attempts and recorded the second-lowest run stuff rate in the league (11.8%).
By all accounts, Henry should run all over the Bengals defense … but what about Lamar Jackson? Since returning from injury in Week 9, Jackson has averaged just 17.8 rushing yards per game, less than half of the 41.5 he averaged over the first month, and 40 fewer yards per game than his overall career average. The absence of his rushing threat might also be impacting his effectiveness as a passer, as he's averaged just 174 passing yards per game with one touchdown and two interceptions over the past three weeks. Unless Henry can carry the entire offense on his undeniably broad shoulders, Jackson may need to re-engage his running prowess to beat a returning Joe Burrow.
Fantasy Fallout: As with Mahomes, Henry isn't just a great play this week; he's arguably the best play at his position. Jackson is also a must-start quarterback, but he will need to bounce back from three straight disappointing fantasy outings to justify that start.
