Three weeks in the books, 15 more to go! We're on to Week 4 ... and it's packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Minnesota to rely on the quick game across the pond
In Carson Wentz's first start for Minnesota last week with J.J. McCarthy sidelined, the veteran QB threw a quick pass (under 2.5 seconds) on 60% of his pass attempts, tied for the seventh-highest rate by any QB in any game this season. This was a major departure from McCarthy's tendencies in Weeks 1 and 2, as he had attempted quick passes on just 17.1% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league. On those quick throws, Wentz completed nine of 12 attempts for 101 yards and two touchdowns, for a whopping 1.0 fantasy points per attempt. Moreover, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson were productive on those passes, with Jefferson catching three balls for 45 yards on five such targets and Hockenson snagging four of four for 36 yards and a touchdown.
Now, the Vikings travel to Dublin to take on the Steelers at Croke Park in Dublin. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 8.2 yards per attempt and a 64.3% success rate on quick passes this season, both of which are the highest marks in the league. The 2.11 fantasy points per target they've surrendered on quick throws is also the most in the NFL, and they've allowed eight-plus fantasy points purely on quick throws to multiple tight ends and multiple wide receivers through three games. In what could be a defensive battle early on Sunday morning, this might be the one area to exploit for fantasy.
Fantasy Fallout: You're not necessarily throwing Carson Wentz into your starting lineup, but with the bevy of injuries at the position, he's not a bad streaming option, either. More importantly, there is some upside for Jefferson, Hockenson and possibly the returning Jordan Addison, if Minnesota game plans to target Pittsburgh's weakness.
Colts run-funnel defense could mean big things for Williams
After three weeks, the Colts rank fourth in NFL Pro's defensive passing efficiency and sixth-lowest in defensive rushing efficiency. While allowing just 5.8 passing yards per pass attempt (fifth-fewest) and a -4.2% completion rate over expected (seventh-lowest), they've also surrendered 13-plus fantasy points to all three of their opponents' lead running backs. Perhaps most importantly, Indy ranks 26th in defensive efficiency against rushes outside the tackles -- where the Rams offense is the most efficient in the entire NFL. On outside runs, the Colts have allowed 4.4 yards after contact per attempt (fourth) and an explosive run on 18.2% of attempts (sixth), while the Los Angeles offense ranks second and fifth in those two metrics. Rams running back Kyren Williams has a 47.6% success rate (third among qualified rushers) and has forced nine missed tackles (eighth) on outside runs.
So far this year, Williams has been consistent, if not explosive, for fantasy. He's hit double-digit fantasy points in all three weeks, but had fewer than 15 in two of three and has not yet hit 20 points in a game. That puts him right in the heart of RB2 range, but is not quite what we'd hoped for when drafting him in the third round. Fortunately, the Rams are also favored to win, at home, with a high implied total: all good signs for a bell-cow running back. While the Indy secondary focuses on stopping Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Williams could have his best fantasy day of the young season.
Fantasy Fallout: Williams is a must-start running back in season-long fantasy, but this is a reminder to raise expectations and potentially work him into daily or weekly contests. Also, Stafford and Adams become slightly fringier plays against this defense -- Nacua is the best wideout in the game right now, so no worries there. (And don't discount Nacua as an outside-the-tackles rusher either).
Next man up in Dallas might be a surprising must-start vs. Green Bay
With CeeDee Lamb suffering an ankle injury in Week 3, and sidelined for most of the game, it was not George Pickens or even KaVontae Turpin who stepped up most. It was tight end Jake Ferguson. He earned a target on 12 of his 25 routes run with Lamb off the field, a monster 48% target rate, catching 11 passes for 72 yards. In the full game, he caught 13 of 14 targets for 82 yards, scoring 21.2 fantasy points to finish as the TE3 on the week. This came a week after Ferguson saw 12 targets in an overtime win against the Giants (nine catches, 78 yards). On the season, Ferguson is the PPR TE1 (45.3 points), his 32 targets are the most among tight ends and his 27 catches are in a league of their own, with no other tight end cracking 20. Ferguson's 27 catches are tied for the most ever by a tight end through Week 3, with Antonio Gates back in 2007. (Incidentally, Gates finished as the TE3 overall that year.)
This isn't a fluke either -- in six games from Weeks 3-9 last year, when both Dak Prescott and Ferguson were healthy, the tight end averaged 7.8 targets and 5.8 catches per game, both second on the team behind Lamb. Now, with Lamb out for three to four weeks, that usage might set Ferguson's floor. In particular, Week 4 brings a meeting with the Packers, who have seen the third-most targets and allowed the third-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends in 2025. If Dallas is going to have chance against Green Bay, it's likely going to need a big day from its top target -- and Ferguson might be that target for the foreseeable future.
Fantasy Fallout: Unless you have Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson is arguably the top tight end in fantasy this week. He's still available in 22% of NFL.com leagues, so go check your waiver wire, and if you have him, start him without question. He's even worth throwing into the flex spot if you do have another top tight end.
Brown, backward Bengals run game are in big trouble
To say it's been a rough start for Chase Brown and Cincinnati's rushing attack would be an understatement. So far in 2025, Brown has rushed for just 93 yards, and 147 of them have come after contact. Yes, you read that right. Brown has -54 rushing yards before contact, the "fewest" (or most negative) by any running back in any season in the history of Next Gen Stats. He's been hit behind the line of scrimmage on 76.6% of his carries -- on essentially three out of every four carries, he's not even making it back to the line before the defense gets to him. Unsurprisingly, he's averaging just 1.98 yards per carry in total, fewest in the league this year and on track to be the fewest by a qualified RB since the 1940s. And for additional context, Brown was hit behind the LOS on just 42.4% of his carries last year and totaled +218 yards before contact, so this is a 2025 problem.
As a result, Brown is averaging just 0.48 fantasy points per opportunity, third-fewest among qualified RBs behind only Zach Charbonnet and Isiah Pacheco. Despite cracking the top 12 in opportunities (tied with Javonte Williams), Brown is the RB30 in fantasy, behind Dylan Sampson and Rhamondre Stevenson, among others. Worst of all, the run game got worse in Jake Browning's first start, posting season lows in rushing yards over expected (-29) and success rate (28.6%). Brown scored just six fantasy points last weekend, with 0.3 of those points coming as a rusher. Now he draws a Broncos defense that has been top 10 in overall defensive rushing efficiency in a game the Bengals are heavy underdogs with an implied total of just 18.5 points. Barring a massive day as a receiver, Brown is a major bust risk again.
Fantasy Fallout: It's tough to bench your third-round pick and potentially your RB1 or RB2 coming out of the draft, but you realistically have to do it. Brown's efficiency has been horrendous and only gotten worse, and he faces a tough defense this week. Some better realistic options include Quinshon Judkins, Cam Skattebo, Trey Benson, Tony Pollard and even TreVeyon Henderson.
