NFL picks: Predicting every remaining game, final record, playoff outlook for each AFC team

Back in August, Adam Rank and I decided to fight back against the algorithms attempting to upend football predictions as we know it. We bravely picked all 272 games of the 2025 NFL season, with the goal of proving once and for all that human analysis and gut instinct still have a place in our cold, data-driven world.

So far, it's not going great.

Two of us set out on this dubious mission, and only one of us remains in the battle midway through the season. (Don't worry, Rank is fine; he's just too busy for silly exercises like this.) And I've had my fair share of whiffs through 10 weeks.

Then again, I dare you to show me a model that projected Indianapolis would sit atop the AFC midway through November while Baltimore and Kansas City lingered on the playoff bubble (don't actually show me). And my hits (surprisingly) actually do outnumber my misses (56% accuracy), which seems like an overall win, considering the chaotic nature of this particular campaign. I was within one loss of 20 teams' midseason records, and within two losses of 26. (Those other six teams? Let's not worry about them ...)

In any case, considering elaborate models have the benefit of running thousands, if not millions, of simulations to spit out updated projections, it seemed only fair that I have a chance to revisit my picks, too -- at least the ones for the second half of the season.

So, once again, here's a very fallible look at how every remaining game will play out, along with a review of my previous projections for each AFC team below. (To see projections for the NFC, click here.)

TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS

AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL | CIN | CLE | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAC | TEN
AFC West: DEN | KC | LAC | LV

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | LAR | SEA | SF

AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AFC EAST

Bills' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 8-1
• Buffalo's actual record: 6-3
• Games correct: 5 of 9

I was right about … Buffalo beating the Chiefs in the regular season again.

I was wrong about … the Patriots and Falcons games (Weeks 5 and 6). I didn't expect New England's turnaround under Mike Vrabel to be this immediate, and I have no idea what Atlanta will do on any given week.

Second-half double down

The Bills rebound from an underwhelming Week 13 performance in Pittsburgh with five straight wins to end the season.

Final projection

• Record: 13-4 (previous projection: 15-2)
• Division finish: 2nd (previous: 1st)
• Will the Bills make the playoffs? Yes, as the fifth seed.

Dolphins' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 3-7
• Miami's actual record: 3-7
• Games correct: 6 of 10

I was right about … 3-7.

I was wrong about … the Dolphins beating the Pats in Week 2 and the Chargers in Week 6, but, to be fair (to my ego), the Fins were ahead in the fourth quarter of both games, losing by a combined 8 points.

Second-half double down

The Dolphins still add two more notches to their win total before the year's over, but Sunday's stunning upset over Buffalo proves to be more aberration than revelation.

Final projection

• Record: 5-12 (previous projection: 5-12)
• Division finish: 3rd (previous: 4th)
• Will the Dolphins make the playoffs? No.

Patriots' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 4-6
• New England's actual record: 8-2
• Games correct: 6 of 10

I was right about … New England being upset at home to open the season, then going on a bit of a run before the midpoint.

I was wrong about … that run being limited to just three games -- not seven (and counting).

Second-half double down

The Patriots go 2-2 over their final four games, which is still good enough to clinch the franchise's first AFC East title since 2019. (They can thank Miami for handing Buffalo the tie-breaking divisional loss.)

Final projection

• Record: 13-4 (previous projection: 7-10)
• Division finish: 1st (previous: 3rd)
• Will the Patriots make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 2 seed.

Jets' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 3-6
• New York's actual record: 2-7
• Games correct: 6 of 9

I was right about … the agonizing start to the Aaron Glenn era.

I was wrong about … Justin Fields getting revenge on the Steelers in Week 1, though he sure put on quite a show in that season-opening loss.

Second-half double down

Although I think a four-game late-season run is off the table now, I still think AG's club has a surprise or two up its sleeve -- whether against the Falcons in Week 13 or at Jacksonville two weeks later.

Final projection

• Record: 4-13 (previous projection: 7-10)
• Division finish: 4th (previous: 2nd)
• Will the Jets make the playoffs? No.

AFC NORTH

Ravens' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 8-1
• Baltimore's actual record: 4-5
• Games correct: 3 of 9

I was right about … not much. From Lamar Jackson's hamstring injury to the team's very un-Ravens-like defense, Baltimore was barely recognizable heading into a Week 7 bye.

I was wrong about … the Ravens winning at Buffalo. That game still holds up, though.

Second-half double down

Baltimore goes on a heater, including a sweep of the season series with the Steelers, to capture the AFC North crown.

Final projection

• Record: 12-5 (previous projection: 14-3)
• Division finish: 1st (previous: same)
• Will the Ravens make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 3 seed.

Bengals' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 5-4
• Cincinnati's actual record: 3-6
• Games correct: 5 of 9

I was right about ... Cincinnati's three-game losing streak in Weeks 4-6.

I was wrong about … the Bengals falling to the Jets and Bears in back-to-back weeks. And like Mike Tomlin, I certainly did NOT foresee Joe Flacco taking the L in both of those games, either. Less surprised by Cincinnati's defensive woes, though.

Second-half double down

The Bengals close out the campaign strong, winning three of their final four games (this assumes they have a guy named Joe under center).

Final projection

• Record: 7-10 (previous projection: 10-7)
• Division finish: 3rd (previous: 2nd)
• Will the Bengals make the playoffs? No.

Browns' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 2-7
• Cleveland's actual record: 2-7
• Games correct: 7 of 9

I was right about ... Cleveland recording two wins over its first nine games.

I was wrong about ... when the Browns would land their big upset. Cleveland beating Green Bay was the biggest shocker of the 2025 season ... at least, until the Panthers one-upped them by knocking off the Pack at Lambeau.

Second-half double down

The Browns still have at least one surprise left in 'em. Look out, Niners.

Final projection

• Record: 4-13 (previous projection: 4-13)
• Division finish: 4th (previous: same)
• Will the Browns make the playoffs? No.

Steelers' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 4-5
• Pittsburgh's actual record: 5-4
• Games correct: 4 of 9

I was right about … Aaron Rodgers coming up short against his former club.

I was wrong about … Aaron Rodgers coming up short against his former club.

Second-half double down

The Steelers' losing streak to the rival Ravens reaches four (including playoffs), as Pittsburgh suffers its first losing season under Mike Tomlin, relinquishes its hold on the AFC North and misses the postseason tournament.

Final projection

• Record: 8-9 (previous projection: 8-9)
• Division finish: 2nd (previous: 3rd)
• Will the Steelers make the playoffs? No.

TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS

AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL | CIN | CLE | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAC | TEN
AFC West: DEN | KC | LAC | LV

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | LAR | SEA | SF

AFC SOUTH

Texans' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 7-2
• Houston's actual record: 4-5
• Games correct: 2 of 9

I was right about ... the Texans taking down the 49ers at home in Week 8. (Even if, two months later, I foolishly changed my mind.)

I was wrong about ... too much, but primarily Houston's sluggish start. I thought the Texans would sweep September -- not open 0-3.

Second-half double down

Houston eats into the Colts' division lead by winning at Indianapolis in Week 13.

Final projection

• Record: 8-9 (previous projection: 10-7)
• Division finish: 2nd (previous: 1st)
• Will the Texans make the playoffs? No.

Colts' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 3-7
• Indianapolis' actual record: 8-2
• Games correct: 5 of 10

I was right about ... half of their games (not bad!) but missed on more than half of their wins (not good!). Refuse to believe anyone outside of the Colts' locker room predicted they'd be leading the entire AFC at this point in the season.

I was wrong about ... way too many things to choose. That said, I did write this back in August: If we could bank on consistent quarterback play, Indy has enough surrounding talent to warrant probably twice as many wins in this exercise. That total would still only amount to eight wins, but I knew it was all about the quarterback!

Second-half double down

Week 12 will go poorly for Indy. The Chiefs are 4-1 at Arrowhead this season, and, at 5-4 (2-3 in conference play), Kansas City will be desperate to secure more signature AFC wins.

Final projection

• Record: 12-5 (previous projection: 4-13)
• Division finish: 1st (previous: 4th)
• Will the Colts make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 4 seed.

Jaguars' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 5-4
• Jacksonville's actual record: 5-4
• Games correct: 1 of 9

I was right about ... the Jags eclipsing their 2024 win total (4) by Week 11, plus the general feel (5-4 record) of this week-to-week club.

I was wrong about ... the specifics (basically every game). That said, if not for a heroic, 92-yard game-winning drive by Jake Browning and a 26-point fourth-quarter meltdown in Houston last weekend, my hit rate would look a bit more respectable.

Second-half double down

The Jags deal with more hurt than hope in the second half, finishing a once-promising season one game short of a winning record.

Final projection

• Record: 8-9 (previous projection: 7-10)
• Division finish: 3rd (previous: 2nd)
• Will the Jaguars make the playoffs? No.

Titans' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 2-7
• Tennessee's actual record: 1-8
• Games correct: 6 of 9

I was right about ... a rough first half of the season for Tennessee.

I was wrong about ... Week 3 vs. the Colts. Although I expected the Titans to struggle in 2025, I definitely didn't see them losing to Indy at home by 21 points. (And there's no way anyone saw that wild Week 5 comeback in the desert happening.)

Second-half double down

Reaching the five-win mark (my original prediction) seems out of the question at this point, but I still think Tennessee tacks on another W by season's end. Sticking with a victory over the Saints in Week 17, which proves hugely consequential to the 2026 draft order.

Final projection

• Record: 2-15 (previous projection: 5-12)
• Division finish: 4th (previous: 3rd)
• Will the Titans make the playoffs? No.

AFC WEST

Broncos' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 6-4
• Denver's actual record: 8-2
• Games correct: 6 of 10

I was right about ... the Broncos being as talented as they've been in at least a decade.

I was wrong about ... them losing at the Giants in Week 7. However, I take solace in knowing Denver needed a historic 33-point fourth-quarter comeback to prove me wrong.

Second-half double down

The Broncos are very good, and, as I wrote in August, have the potential to do real damage in the postseason. But the current AFC West leaders punch their ticket into the tournament as a wild card -- not as division champs.

Final projection

• Record: 12-5 (previous projection: 11-6)
• Division finish: 2nd (previous: same)
• Will the Broncos make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 6 seed.

Chiefs' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 7-2
• Kansas City's actual record: 5-4
• Games correct: 5 of 9

I was right about ... the Chiefs losing their fifth straight regular-season game to the Bills.

I was wrong about ... Week 4 vs. the Ravens. In hindsight, probably a bit overzealous of me to underestimate the reigning AFC champs at home. Even if Lamar Jackson hadn't exited early with a hamstring injury, the Chiefs were the superior team that Sunday afternoon, outclassing a Baltimore squad that wasn't quite right out of the gate.

Second-half double down

Despite entering Week 11 three wins shy of the Broncos' total and sitting third in the division, Kansas City stacks enough victories down the stretch -- including both tilts with Denver -- to capture its 10th consecutive AFC West title.

Final projection

• Record: 13-4 (previous projection: 12-5)
• Division finish: 1st (previous: same)
• Will the Chiefs make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 1 seed.

Raiders' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 3-6
• Las Vegas' actual record: 2-7
• Games correct: 6 of 9

I was right about ... the Raiders winning at Foxborough to open the campaign.

I was wrong about … Week 4 vs. Chicago. But, to be honest, I was sort of fading myself in the hope the Bears would actually prevail (and they only barely did).

Second-half double down

The Raiders close the campaign looking up at the rest of their AFC West rivals. Not the boldest of takes, I know.

Final projection

• Record: 4-13 (previous projection: 8-9)
• Division finish: 4th (previous: same)
• Will the Raiders make the playoffs? No.

Chargers' midseason report card

• Projected record through Week 10: 6-4
• L.A.'s actual record: 7-3
• Games correct: 5 of 10

I was right about ... the Bolts beating the Broncos in Week 3 and then folding to the Giants one week later.

I was wrong about ... them losing in Brazil. The Chargers' Week 1 win over the Chiefs, and their other two divisional dubs in September, look increasingly important now as the AFC West race heats up.

Second-half double down

Even with all of the injuries along the offensive line, Jim Harbaugh's group grits out four more wins over the final eight weeks to secure a spot in the dance.

Final projection

• Record: 11-6 (previous projection: 10-7)
• Division finish: 3rd (previous: same)
• Will the Chargers make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 7 seed.

TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS

AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL | CIN | CLE | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAC | TEN
AFC West: DEN | KC | LAC | LV

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | LAR | SEA | SF

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