Just hours before the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off in Detroit (8 p.m. ET on NFL Network/ESPN/ABC), here is my fourth and final Round 1 projection.
The Bears officially acquire their new face-of-the-franchise quarterback and move on to the No. 9 pick.
Is this Daniels' first choice as a franchise? I don't know and I don't think the Commanders care, as they sit tight and draft the talented dual-threat quarterback.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
In a trade up, the Giants might have to pay more than the standard trade chart would indicate, since the supply side of quarterback is dwindling but the demand remains high. Brian Daboll helped Josh Allen in Buffalo and may see a chance to do the same with the toolsy-but-inconsistent North Carolina quarterback.
With the Patriots making the move out of the third pick, Arizona could execute a deal to move back, as well. But in this projection, I have them sticking it out and just taking one of the best players in the draft.
Surprise, surprise! While the Chargers could be looking at a receiver here -- we all know they need one, after parting ways with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams -- Jim Harbaugh sits tight and takes the biggest bully on the block to fortify his run game and set the tone on the right side for years to come.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW YORK GIANTS
The Patriots decide to pass on both quarterback and wide receiver in order to land their bell-cow left tackle, attempting to fortify the trenches in what could be a three-year rebuild/restock for Eliot Wolf, Jerod Mayo and Co.
Even if the Nos. 5 and 6 picks don't go the way I have them, the Titans better have a contingency plan in case someone jumps them for Joe Alt. In this scenario, they land a future Pro Bowler with the explosive talent to accelerate Will Levis' growth in Year 2.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH ATLANTA FALCONS
The Vikings wait it out for a bit and are rewarded with the ability to trade up just three spots to take McCarthy while hanging on to their No. 23 pick. (Per the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, they can accomplish this deal by moving a future Day 2 pick.)
After some tense moments waiting to see if the Falcons would stick and pick Odunze, the Bears breathe a sigh of relief. Caleb Williams gets a new best friend and WR1 of the future.
In my last mock, I had Brock Bowers in this spot, thinking New York's poised to GO FOR IT with Aaron Rodgers at age 40. However, upon further consideration, the Jets have a Band-Aid at right tackle in Morgan Moses. Fuaga gives them the real, long-term answer they have been looking for.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Falcons need a pass rusher in the worst way, so the question simply becomes whether they take Turner, Byron Murphy II or Jared Verse here. The traits win out -- Dallas hits Atlanta.
Despite everyone waiting for Denver to trade up for a quarterback, I have heard the Broncos are quietly putting feelers out there to move back and add another pick. If that doesn't come to fruition, Mitchell becomes an instant starter across from Pat Surtain II.
The Washington big man has long arms, a broad frame and is extremely physical. He could be a plug-and-play right tackle early on, but also has the potential to develop into a body-moving guard if the Raiders choose to use him there.
Fashanu has the traits and flashes of a top-tier offensive tackle, though some teams actually see his best NFL position as guard. New Orleans is much more likely to view him as a left tackle, where he will be expected to beat out Trevor Penning, who has struggled to find his footing in the pros.
The Colts need a weapon who can create explosive plays -- and someone whom QB Anthony Richardson can grow with. I thought long and hard about tight end Brock Bowers here, but then I remembered that GM Chris Ballard was on the Chiefs staff that drafted Tyreek Hill and suddenly surmised, Oh, yeah -- he'll take the guy with world-class speed and separation potential.
This might be a best-case scenario for the Seahawks, who need an impact interior D-lineman and are able to grab the best of the bunch (by a wide margin).
C.J. Stroud and the Texans put AFC South defenses on notice last season. Arnold is an in-your-face coverage talent with high football character and competitive fire Jacksonville coaches will love.
The Bengals certainly didn't expect to see Brock Bowers available here. While they need offensive line help and another receiver to eventually take over for Tee Higgins, they would be wise to grab Bowers here and target OL and WR on Day 2.
The Rams really need to find an edge rusher, and this pick could come down to Laiatu Latu or Verse. Verse lacks the pass-rush polish of Latu, but his medicals figure to be cleaner and he's the stronger run defender of the two.
I know the Steelers have needs at tackle, cornerback and wide receiver, but hear me out. Pittsburgh certainly could use help along the interior O-line, as well, and Barton might be one of the safest picks in the first round as someone who can play center or guard as an immediate starter.
It may be hard for the Dolphins to pass on a pass rusher like Laiatu Latu, but looking at the other quarterbacks taking snaps in the AFC, Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel might view this as an "arms race" selection -- and it could truly make Miami the fastest team in the history of football.
This is a fairly easy decision for the Eagles, as they add a physical defensive back with good instincts and the toughness to play outside or as an interchangeable safety.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Latu's fall down the board is over, with the Cardinals moving up from No. 27 overall to grab the most polished pass rusher in the draft.
The Cowboys choose to grab the talented-but-inexperienced bookend out of Oklahoma who has the raw ability to eventually compete for a starting role at either tackle spot.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Raiders trade back into the first round with an aggressive move to grab their potential quarterback of the future -- who could quickly become their quarterback of the present.
Tampa sits tight and finds a cornerback with good size and scheme versatility to jump right in and compete for a starting spot.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS
Minnesota counters its trade up into the top 10 by moving back. The Vikings still get a quality cornerback with elite speed and athleticism for Brian Flores' defense.
Brandon Beane needs a wide receiver after the Stefon Diggs trade. However, the general manager typically stays true to his draft board -- and if a player with the upside of Robinson falls into his lap, he might not be able to pass him up.
The Lions are in position to challenge for a Super Bowl right now if they can hit on a pick or two. It wouldn't surprise me to see Detroit try to make an aggressive move up the board for a pass rusher. If that doesn't happen, Robinson can play base end or defensive tackle and step into snaps very quickly.
The Ravens need to eventually find a right tackle -- and they might need to find one for this season. If Mims falls here, Baltimore could do much worse than adding one of the most physically gifted specimens in this draft.
Height, weight and speed. Admittedly, there is still work to do for Mitchell to reach his potential, but this is a perfect team fit. Plus, San Francisco could have starting spots open sooner than later.
It's time for the Chiefs to find a wide receiver with not only size but the mindset to become an alpha whom Patrick Mahomes can lean on for the tough catch.
