As we get closer to the start of the 2024 NFL Draft (8 p.m. ET Thursday in Detroit on NFL Network/ESPN/ABC), I'm hearing a lot more chatter about potential movement between Pick Nos. 10 and 32 than in the early portion of Round 1. So, while we might get a little less excitement than I initially anticipated at the top, trades could come fast and furious deeper into the first round. With that in mind, here's my final projection for the first 32 selections.
No surprises at No. 1. The Bears have been locked in on Williams for some time. They get their new face of the franchise.
As we come down the home stretch, the whispers of Washington's preference for Daniels have become a roar. I'm sure the Commanders have had suitors looking to acquire this pick -- including the Raiders -- but I don't see GM Adam Peters passing on the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
I feel confident the third selection will be Maye. I lean toward thinking the Patriots will stick and pick. When you need a quarterback, you don't try to get cute and move around the board.
With the top three quarterbacks off the board, I don't know that the market for the fourth pick will be all that tempting for Arizona to trade out of this spot. The Cardinals land a great player at a position of need.
This is where we could potentially see a trade, but I'm going to take the Chargers at their word that they want to be a more physical team and improve their run game. It might be a little bit of a surprise to see Latham go before Joe Alt, but the former Alabama star is ready to rock at right tackle and is a more powerful blocker than his Notre Dame counterpart.
In this scenario, I think the Giants' selection would come down to Nabers versus Rome Odunze. To me, that's a flip-a-coin decision. Taking Nabers here, New York opts to get more dynamic and explosive. I expect the G-Men to try to make a move up the board for Drake Maye, but I don't think they will be able to pull it off.
The Titans have a screaming need at offensive tackle. If both Alt and JC Latham are off the board by No. 7, I could see Tennessee trying to trade down.
It feels like I've had Turner going to Atlanta forever. I haven't been convinced to change that opinion, so I'm going to stick with it. The Falcons have long had a need for help off the edge.
I believe the Bears might be interested in trading down from No. 9, which could still put them in the range to land Fashanu. Remember, they only have four picks this year. However, if they do stay at No. 9, I expect this will be a selection to support Caleb Williams, whether it's a receiver (Rome Odunze) or offensive tackle. I'm going with an OT here because GM Ryan Poles and assistant GM Ian Cunningham understand the importance of the offensive line, and I see Fashanu -- Williams' high school teammate, by the way -- as a massive upgrade over incumbent left tackle Braxton Jones.
I could see the Jets moving up a bit to secure Odunze, but he falls into their lap in this simulation. He's a perfect fit for what they need. Aaron Rodgers would have a fantastic trio at receiver in Odunze, Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams (once he's healthy).
I wouldn't rule out Minnesota trading up a couple spots for a quarterback, but all the information I've gathered in the last couple days suggests the Vikings are not crazy about making a bold move up the board for McCarthy. I believe they've grown more comfortable with Michael Penix Jr. as a fallback option if a team were to leapfrog them for McCarthy.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH DENVER BRONCOS
It seems like everyone is assuming the Eagles will be aggressive to go get a cornerback, which is a need, but they always are willing to invest in big humans in the first round. Fuaga is a perfect fit. He can start at right guard as a rookie and eventually replace Lane Johnson at right tackle whenever the veteran decides to walk away. Philadelphia hasn't drafted a cornerback in Round 1 since 2002 (Lito Sheppard).
I've been connecting Penix to the Raiders for more than a month now. I think they'll try to move heaven and earth to go get Jayden Daniels, but with no deal coming to fruition, Penix offers a clear upgrade over the quarterbacks they currently have on the roster.
The Saints have been calling teams to try to trade up, and I assume they want one of the top offensive tackles. I'm not sure how they have the OTs stacked on their board, but I do feel highly confident that New Orleans will be taking a bookend blocker in Round 1.
The Colts are another team that's had talks about trading up. I won't be shocked if they end up with Bowers. Keep an eye on Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell as another potential fit here.
Last year's No. 5 overall selection, Devon Witherspoon, was a home run pick as a nickel corner. Riq Woolen has had an up-and-down start to his career, but there's a starting spot at CB available for Arnold. New head coach Mike Macdonald will appreciate Arnold's ability to take the football away.
It will not surprise me if Mitchell is drafted much earlier. Teams love him. This would be a great value pick if he's still available for the Jaguars at No. 17.
I won't be stunned if Murphy goes in the top 10, but in this projection, the Bengals land the top interior pass rusher in the draft.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH LOS ANGELES RAMS
I can't imagine the Commanders are going to sit back at No. 36 and hope that fate lands them a top offensive tackle early in Round 2, given the expectation that there will be a run on them in the first round. They could and should be aggressive to move up for a premium prospect at the position. Based on my discussions with college programs and NFL teams, Washington has done a lot of work on the top OTs in the class. Poised to make a first-round pick for the first time since 2016, Rams GM Les Snead has a chuckle and trades out once again. This deal could net him the 36th and 40th picks in the draft if he gives up a third-rounder in the swap.
Cornerback is in play here, but the Steelers continue down the road they chose last year by upgrading the offensive line. Guyton and 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones are two extremely athletic and agile big men who will anchor the O-line.
The Dolphins can't adequately replace Christian Wilkins in 2024, but Newton is an excellent prospect who will have an immediate impact.
PROJECTED TRADE WITH PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
I don't see the Broncos taking Nix at No. 12, and I know they'd like to fill the current Round 2 hole on their draft docket. This move allows them to add a second-rounder from Philly and come away with Nix, who looks to be a great fit for Sean Payton's offense.
Robinson is a dynamic edge rusher who fills a need for Minnesota.
This feels like a perfect marriage to me. Barton is the best center in the draft, and the Cowboys have a void to fill at the position. He has the flexibility to play any of the five O-line spots, too.
The Packers have loaded up on defense in recent drafts and they stay at it here. DeJean can play nickel back, outside corner and he could develop into a really good safety, as well.
I could see a team like Tampa Bay making a trade to go get Verse if he starts to slide. In this exercise, he's available at No. 26 and would be one of the best value picks of the first round.
I think the Cardinals would love to get a defensive tackle, so Jer'Zhan Newton could be the pick if he's still waiting to hear his name called at No. 27. There's a wide range of potential landing spots for Latu. At No. 8 overall, he could be in play for his former coach -- Falcons DC Jimmy Lake, who served as the Washington defensive coordinator and head coach during Latu's first college stop in Seattle. I also could see him sliding. He's universally accepted as the most polished pass rusher in the draft and would fill a void for the Cardinals.
If Thomas starts to slip, it won't surprise me if the Bills move up for him. I could also see Buffalo trading back and trying to land a couple of receivers early on.
The Lions have done a ton of homework on the cornerback class. I'm not sure which player they're targeting. In this case, the decision would come down to McKinstry versus Nate Wiggins. Detroit opts to reunite Kool-Aid with his college teammate, Brian Branch.
The Ravens always value players who can rush the quarterback and guys who can cover pass catchers. Wiggins has outstanding cover ability, but Baltimore will need to help him be a little more of an urgent defender against the run.
This is my favorite fit in the first round. We saw what Tank Dell did in a similar offensive system with Houston, and we know what Mike McDaniel has been able to build with so much speed at receiver in Miami. Worthy gives Kyle Shanahan a similar weapon.
Mitchell might have the most upside of any wide receiver in the draft. This would represent a nice value for the Chiefs at a position of need.
