Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.
As always, check out our NFL Fantasy rankings for more!
HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.2
Michelle: Since returning from a shoulder injury that kept him off the field in Weeks 7-9, Levis has taken a step forward, putting up at least 15 fantasy points in each of his last four games played. The Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards per game and fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, along with the second-most overall passing touchdowns -- and they have been extra atrocious against QBs on the road. In away games, they are allowing four more points per game to quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL. Every QB who has started a game at home against the Jaguars this season has scored at least 18.6 fantasy points -- with four of the six scoring at least 28.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.9
Michelle: The Buccaneers appear to have wisely realized during their Week 11 bye that this rookie is by far the most talented guy in their running back room. In Weeks 12-13, Irving had 46 touches, ranking second in the NFL with 240 rushing yards and 337 scrimmage yards in that span (both behind only Saquon Barkley). He scored 27 fantasy points in each week and has hit at least 15 points in six of his last seven games. The only contest in which he didn't reach that mark came against the Chiefs' No. 1 rush defense. Not only should Irving score at least 14 fantasy points in a favorable matchup against the Raiders, but I won't be surprised if he finishes with 25-plus for the third straight week.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.6
Matt: Pollard has been spotty lately, falling short of this 12.6-point projection in three of his last four games and scoring just once in his last seven outings. But the best remedy for a fantasy slump, as they say, is playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2024.
Despite the lack of touchdowns, Pollard has remained relevant with 87 scrimmage yards per game (14th at the position this season), and the Jags have allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs. Tennessee should find the red zone more often this week, which means Pollard will have a better chance of crossing the goal line ... and crushing this projection.
PROJECTED POINTS: 7.9
Michelle: Sidelined by a knee infection for much of the season, Cooks returned to the field last week and was immediately targeted seven times, scoring 10.6 fantasy points despite playing just 40 percent of Dallas' offensive snaps. His playing time should increase in his second game back, based on what he logged (80 percent of the offensive snaps) in Weeks 1-4, prior to missing time.
This is a great matchup for a speedster like Cooks to exploit. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most downfield receiving yards (on throws of 10-plus air yards) and tied for the most deep receiving touchdowns (on throws of 20-plus air yards) in the NFL this season. Multiple WRs have hit at least 10 fantasy points against the Bengals over their last nine games.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.6
Matt: Hill has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of the year. He hasn't had a game over 21 fantasy points since Week 1, and he's just the WR20 overall. So I wouldn't blame you for considering a stint on the bench for the former All-Pro ... but I wouldn't recommend it, either.
Lack of recent ceiling notwithstanding, Hill has still managed to find the end zone in three of his last four games. And while the Jets look like a tough matchup on paper, their particular strength lies in defending the short passing game (fifth-best in defensive efficiency, per NFL Pro) and not the intermediate (30th) or deep (25th) areas. Hill needs one big play to beat this projection, and I think he gets it in Week 14.
PROJECTED POINTS: 8.5
Matt: If you streamed Dissly last week against the Falcons, it literally could not have gone worse; he finished with one target and zero fantasy points. Ouch. I'm on board for a bounce-back in Week 14 -- and with six teams on bye, Dissly is a legitimate borderline streamer. Prior to the dud against Atlanta, the Chargers tight end averaged 6.2 targets and 4.7 receptions per game over a six-game span. And with Ladd McConkey currently banged up, those numbers could spike.
Moreover, the Chiefs have allowed the most receptions and receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, while staying stingier against wide receivers and immovable against the run. If Los Angeles wants to win a crucial divisional clash, Dissly should be heavily involved.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 17.6
Matt: On the whole, Purdy has been pretty consistently good in good matchups and bad in bad ones. Chicago is a bad one -- the Bears have allowed the second-least fantasy points per game to QBs, in fact -- and the Niners are quickly unraveling with a 5-7 record and a swath of key injuries. The only QBs to top 17 fantasy points against the Bears this season are Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold. No one outside of Darnold has posted at least 250 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns against this defense.
Considering the wealth of available streamers and the fact that Purdy has nothing but tough matchups the rest of the season, you can move on from the former fantasy stud and find a different answer at quarterback down the playoff stretch.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.2
Matt: Odunze is a curious case. In the three games since the Bears fired Shane Waldron, elevated Thomas Brown and unlocked a new version of Caleb Williams, Odunze was targeted 26 times but only caught 13 passes for 129 yards with zero touchdowns. In fact, Odunze hasn't scored since Week 3 ... when he recorded his only touchdown of the season.
In that same stretch, DJ Moore has 22 catches, 265 yards and two TDs, and Keenan Allen has 18 catches, 200 yards and three touchdowns. Even Cole Kmet has outproduced the rookie receiver. The targets are encouraging, but if Williams and Odunze can't get on the same page, Odunze won't be able to convert them into fantasy points. He should be relegated to your bench until he and his QB figure it out.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.0
Michelle: The Panthers' offense has looked competent over the last few weeks, and old man Thielen had a huge game Sunday against the weak Buccaneers secondary, logging eight receptions for 99 yards and a TD. Things won't be so easy in Week 14 on the road in Philadelphia, however. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have allowed just three wide receivers to put up 12-plus fantasy points against them (Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Ja'Marr Chase). Thielen will get an especially hard challenge in this matchup, as he will be going up against slot corner Cooper DeJean for much of the game -- who has been excellent in his rookie season. DeJean has allowed just 6.9 yards per reception in coverage, which ranks second-fewest among 107 CBs with at least 150 coverage snaps in 2024, per Pro Football Focus.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.6
Michelle: Due to his severe struggles to find the end zone, Engram's upside is capped and his floor is very low in any given week. He is averaging just 10.3 fantasy points per game this season and has not scored more than 12 points in any of his last four games. Mac Jones will be starting for an injured Trevor Lawrence this weekend, and Engram has scored just 10, 7.8 and 11.1 points in the three games this Jones has started or played significant time in. Only four tight ends have scored nine or more points in a game against the Titans in 2024, and only one of those guys did it without scoring a touchdown in the game. Engram has scored just one touchdown all season long.
