Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.
As always, check out our NFL Fantasy rankings for more!
HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.3
Matt: Darnold has topped this 16.3-point projection in five of his last seven games (and he reached 16.26 in a sixth). He just got T.J. Hockenson back, adding another superb weapon to an offense headed by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones. And in Week 10, he draws a Jaguars defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
I don’t fully understand how this projection sits this low. He could be projected to put up 18, 19 or even 20 fantasy points, and I might still predict he goes higher. Regardless, Darnold is a locked-and-loaded QB1 and should be streamed/started everywhere you can.
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.2
Michelle: After having zero passing yards in the first half in Week 9, Jones finished with a season-high 24.4 fantasy points. Based on the rushing numbers he has been putting up, it seems he has been trusting his rehabbed ACL more and more as the season progresses -- he has registered at least 50 rushing yards in two of the last four games and scored his first rushing touchdown of the season last weekend. Jones’ ability to hit Malik Nabers deep down the field or keep the ball himself and run makes him an intriguing fantasy option in a favorable matchup like this one.
The Panthers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season. Going back to Week 5, they have allowed Bo Nix (29.8), Caleb Williams (23.6) and Marcus Mariota (19.6) to each score 19-plus points against them.
PROJECTED POINTS: 18.1
Michelle: Purdy has scored 24-plus fantasy points in two of the last three weeks -- with a 17.2-point performance against a stingy Chiefs defense sandwiched in between -- and quarterbacks have scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks against the Bucs.
It also bodes well for Purdy that San Francisco is coming off a bye. After a Week 9 bye last season, Purdy put up 23.8 fantasy points against the Jaguars. This year’s bye gave Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings time to heal from injuries, and it looks like the 49ers will have reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey back on the field for the first time this season, all of which is good news for the man under center.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.1
Michelle: With Hubbard stuck in a bad offense, his great production has flown far below the radar this season. Between Weeks 3 and 9, Hubbard averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game; in that span, he had the third-most rushing yards in the NFL, behind only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Hubbard was also one of just four players to have 500-plus rush yards and at least five rushing touchdowns in Weeks 3-9 -- joining Henry, Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Hubbard has hit at least 15 fantasy points in five of his last seven games and gets a fantastic matchup in Week 10. The Giants have allowed the second-most yards per carry to opposing running backs in the NFL this season, while an opposing running back has hit 13 or more fantasy points in each of their last six games.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.2
Matt: After a disappointing Week 9 in which Tracy totaled just 69 yards from scrimmage, you might be tempted to sit (or even drop) the rookie running back. Don’t do it. In fact, if he’s not on your roster, see if you can remedy that before Sunday. Tracy has logged 16-plus carries in four of his last five games, totaling 77 since the start of October -- more than Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III in that span.
While he will often be limited by the Giants offense and their struggle to win games, this week's matchup against the Panthers and their last-ranked run defense brings a reprieve from that particular concern. Tracy is a borderline RB1 who should handle high volume and with efficiency in Week 10.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.9
Matt: Going back his breakout game in Week 2, Mooney has averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game and topped 14 points in five of eight games. Between Weeks 2 and 9, his 65 targets ranked as the sixth-most in the NFL. And one of the five guys ahead of him, teammate Drake London, was listed as questionable on Friday's injury report with a hip injury. Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins has built a clear and effective rapport with Mooney, turning him into one of the stronger flex plays in fantasy.
While the matchup with the Saints doesn’t look superb -- they’re ranked 11th-best in NFL Pro’s defensive passing efficiency -- they just traded away Marshon Lattimore, by far their best cornerback, and fired their head coach. I think Mooney has sneaky upside this week and should clear double-digit points with ease.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.0
Michelle: Mahomes went off against the struggling Buccaneers secondary in Week 9, racking up a season-high 24.5 fantasy points -- but don't let that make you forget he was averaging just 14.5 fantasy PPG in Weeks 1-8. He failed to hit 16 fantasy points in five of seven games played during that span, with zero performances over 19 points.
Outside of Week 9, when the Broncos allowed Lamar Jackson to score 23.6 fantasy points, Denver's defense has been very tough against quarterbacks. Jackson is the only QB that hit 14 fantasy points against the Broncos in their last eight games. Over Mahomes' two matchups against Denver in 2023, he had just one touchdown with three interceptions.
PROJECTED POINTS: 17.1
Michelle: There is no doubt about it: Mixon has turned out to be one of the best values in fantasy drafts this season. He is averaging 21.4 fantasy PPG, which ranked third among running backs going into Week 10, behind only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. However, in Week 9's difficult matchup against the Jets, Mixon slowed down, coming away with just 16.6 fantasy points despite logging 24 carries and scoring a touchdown. He gets another tough assignment this weekend against the Lions' stout defense.
Opponents are averaging the second-fewest rush attempts per game against the Lions in 2024, and Detroit has allowed just two running backs to hit 15 fantasy points this season. Plus, if top Texans WR Nico Collins returns this week, Houston's offense could be more pass-happy in this matchup.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.4
Matt: If you held on to Sutton through the first seven weeks of the season -- especially during a disastrous, target-less Week 7 -- you might be pretty excited about his back-to-back 10-target, 100-yard performances. And while they could be signs of increased chemistry with rookie QB Bo Nix, I’m tempering expectations for Week 10 against the Chiefs.
Kansas City has allowed just 106.4 receiving yards per game to the wide receiver position, the fewest in the league heading into Week 10 and around 40 yards per game fewer than the league median. Only one wideout (Darnell Mooney) has topped this projection against the Chiefs without scoring a touchdown, and Sutton’s only scored two TDs in nine games. In a TD-or-bust game, I’m not willing to bet on a score.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.2
Matt: Engram and his fantasy prospects are difficult to assess. Last week, in a tough matchup against the Eagles, he saw 10 targets but scored just 9.5 fantasy points. This season, he’s only topped five catches or 50 yards once -- in a huge Week 6 performance -- and scored just one touchdown. The Vikings have been a middle-of-the-road matchup for tight ends in fantasy but have a strong advantage over Jacksonville in NFL Pro’s passing efficiency.
All told, Engram has averaged five receptions and 45 yards per game, which feels about right as a projection. You might not have a better option, especially considering which tight ends are on bye, but I would not hope for much from the Jags tight end, who will likely have Mac Jones throwing to him in place of an injured Trevor Lawrence.
