Best NFL QB additions since 2020: Jayden Daniels, Tom Brady show multiple paths to success

ACQUIRED: March 2021, via trade, from Detroit Lions, in exchange for QB Jared Goff, a 2021 third-round pick, a 2022 first-round pick and a 2023 first-round pick.

Even before we knew how the Lions' side would play out, to me, this swap qualified as a feel-good story, giving Matthew Stafford the chance to join a stable contender. When the deal was made official, Stafford had just turned 33 and was coming off three straight lackluster seasons, like many who participated in the singularly uninspiring reign of Matt Patricia. The picture brightened considerably in Los Angeles, where Stafford thrived with Sean McVay and a talent-rich roster, winning the Super Bowl that seemed likely to remain out of reach for the Rams as long as Goff was under center. Scenery changes don't get much better than that.

Perhaps Stafford and Co. made it look a little too easy to plug in an accomplished QB and roll right to glory. Subsequent trades for veterans like Russell Wilson (by the Broncos in 2022) and Aaron Rodgers (by the Jets in 2023) collapsed catastrophically, with each team (and, to varying degrees, quarterback) proving to be, in retrospect, absurdly far from title contention. One thing worth mulling when considering those failures, as well as the chances of any team that currently sees itself as "a quarterback away," is just how good the McVay-Les Snead Rams seem to be at both sticking to a plan and adapting their approach to get the most out of the resources and opportunities available to them.

ACQUIRED: March 2021, via trade with Los Angeles Rams, along with a 2021 third-round pick, a 2022 first-round pick and a 2023 first-round pick, in exchange for QB Matthew Stafford.

At first, Jared Goff looked like a warm body for the Lions to run out as the immediate replacement for one of the best quarterbacks in franchise history. Whatever team brass was thinking internally, how much could someone who backslid under Sean McVay hope to accomplish helming a team that managed 14 combined wins in 2018-2020? Goff's first season in Honolulu Blue (he put up 6.6 yards per throw and the Lions finished 3-13-1) likely did not convert many skeptics. Then Ben Johnson took over as offensive coordinator, and Goff suddenly became one of the most effective QBs in the NFL. Over the past three seasons, he compiled the third-best passer rating (111.8) in the NFL, while Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes built the Lions into an NFC juggernaut.

In some respects, Goff is back where he was at the end of his time with the Rams, trying to push a top-end roster to the next level -- but that is a much better fate than he and Detroit seemed destined for four years ago. As a bonus, the Lions flipped some of the picks acquired with Goff in future deals that netted them Jameson Williams and Joshua Paschal (the 2022 first) and Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta (the 2023 first). Johnson's ability to elevate Goff's play (and, not coincidentally, snag the job of coaching Caleb Williams in Chicago this offseason) shows just how important it is for teams to accentuate their QB's strengths, regardless of draft pedigree.

ACQUIRED: March 2023, via a one-year, $4 million contract.

Baker Mayfield might ultimately top out at pretty good -- but that's, uh, pretty good for a quarterback who worked with three head coaches and four offensive coordinators in his first four pro seasons with the Browns, then bounced through stopgap duty with the Panthers and Rams before landing in Tampa. The Bucs provided him with the most stability and the best supporting cast of his NFL career. Mayfield rewarded them by leading a pair of consecutive playoff trips -- and, maybe even more importantly, saving them from having to transition from Tom Brady to Kyle Trask.

Mayfield's initial fall from grace was so severe that he might still seem faintly like a bust, at least for a former No 1 overall pick. But over the past two seasons in Tampa, he actually played better than most QBs drafted at that slot, ranking second among No. 1 overall draft picks in yards per attempt (7.5), third in passer rating (100.7) and fourth in TD-to-INT ratio (69:26). I don't think the lesson here is that every failed high-profile prospect can be salvaged. But Mayfield's resurgence does suggest it is important to value -- or at least consider -- how the overall picture might be impacting a quarterback's progress in a given situation, and to think about what they might need to reach their potential. 

(NOTE: Geno Smith had a chance to be the pick here, but lost out for two reasons: 1) He was technically first acquired by Seattle in 2019, putting him just outside of the window of consideration, though I might have cheated that, except 2) he never quite hit the highs in Seattle that Mayfield has in Tampa.)

ACQUIRED: March 2024, via a one-year, $10 million contract.

The utterly lame end to Sam Darnold's borderline miraculous run with the Vikings took a lot of steam out of his comeback story. It is fair to question Darnold's ultimate ceiling now, in March, after the Seahawks handed him a hefty deal despite his high-profile flops in Week 18 and the playoffs. So let's stop thinking about his QB1 qualifications and reconsider what he accomplished as the so-called "bridge" he was supposed to be in August, before first-round pick J.J. McCarthy's knee injury pushed Darnold into default starter duty.

In that context, it is hard to picture a better outcome than what Darnold managed in 2024. So he didn't win a Super Bowl. He did carry the franchise to its best record since the days of Randy Moss. And he really set the Vikings up well to begin the McCarthy era. Thanks in large part to Darnold's efforts, Kevin O'Connell heads into 2025 as the reigning Coach of the Year, with a second double-digit-win season to his name in three seasons. Imagine if Darnold hadn't meshed so well with O'Connell's system, and Minnesota had limped to six or seven wins instead. Rather than strengthening a playoff-caliber roster this offseason, O'Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah might be sweating to save their jobs while also trying to break in a rookie QB -- and who knows how things could have spiraled from there?

ACQUIRED: March 2020, via a two-year, $50 million contract.

Tom Brady rocketed even further into superhuman territory by winning it all one more time and providing two more strong years after that in Tampa. This acquisition does not really have anything to teach anyone but the team that lucks into giving Patrick Mahomes (or the equivalent living legend of tomorrow) a similar last shot at another ring. Go ahead and clip this blurb out to slide into a time capsule for 2035 or so. To that future team, I will say: If a multi-time Super Bowl champion who looks capable of playing at an elite level well into his 40s wants to sign with you, go for it.

DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 2 overall in 2024.

First, to earn recognition here, a player has to separate himself from the mess of OK-to-good QBs -- Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud -- that have been found in Round 1 since 2020. I was tempted to go with the Bengals' selection of Joe Burrow first overall in 2020, because of how well he's lived up to the hype that comes with that slot. But there was such a strong consensus around Burrow's pro bonafides at the time that it would feel like praising Cincinnati for basically not overthinking a no-brainer decision. The Bengals also had been fitfully competitive in the years before Burrow's arrival. Jayden Daniels, on the other hand, sparked one of the most dramatic turnarounds in recent NFL history, taking the Commanders to their first NFC title game appearance since 1991 right out of the gate.

In some respects, drafting Daniels after the Bears took last year's consensus No. 1, Caleb Williams, off the board was probably just as easy as drafting Burrow in 2020. Then again, Washington could have gone in a few different directions, with Drake Maye and other QBs still available, or taken a more conservative approach to building up the roster after years of futility. Instead, they jumped at the high-upside Daniels and supported him with an influx of free agent talent and a consistent, fearless coaching staff, which seems like a smart tack to take when picking a signal-caller in Round 1.

DRAFTED: Round 2, No. 53 overall in 2020.

Today, you know Jalen Hurts as the MVP of Super Bowl LIX. Back in 2020, his selection in the second round seemed to many like a curious move at best and a reckless splurge at worst. Why use a top-60 pick on a high-profile quarterback prospect when the Eagles already had Carson Wentz, who was signed to a second contract and putting up top-10 numbers? Then Philly disintegrated in 2020 -- and a one-year blip probably would have become an outright disaster if Hurts had not stepped in when Wentz (who turned the ball over a league-high 19 times that season) lost his way. That's not to say Hurts has been perfect, but he's given the Eagles what they needed, elevating the offense with his arm and legs when required -- and, unlike Wentz, he showed he could actually reverse a concerning turnover habit.

As we move through the draft portion of this list especially, we will see a theme develop: Teams often benefit from having multiple options cooking at QB. Still, there is one note of caution to offer anyone hoping to hit a similar second- or third-round home run in the future: Hurts (with a 46-20 record) is the only Day 2 pick from the past five drafts to log more than eight QB wins since 2020. The records of the other Day 2 QBs to start games in that span for the teams that drafted them (Desmond Ridder, 8-9 with Atlanta; Davis Mills, 5-19-1 with Houston; Will Levis, 5-16 with Tennessee; Malik Willis, 1-2 with Tennessee) show the limitations of taking "value" swings at the position -- unless, of course, you get ludicrously lucky.

DRAFTED: Round 7, No. 262 overall in 2022.

The 49ers got ludicrously lucky. At least, that's the way it looks when one considers that Purdy, the last overall pick in 2022, is also the only QB from that class to still be with his drafting team.

Then again, you can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket in the first place. The Niners went into the draft with an established vet (Jimmy Garoppolo), a previous high draft pick (Trey Lance) and ready-made roster fodder (Nate Sudfeld) in the fold. They could have counted up to three on the QB depth chart and decided not to spend even the minimal possible amount of extra capital on the position, even if they’d been intending to trade Garoppolo, who had undergone shoulder surgery that March, during the offseason. But if not for that low-stakes (though apparently also high-stakes) decision, San Francisco would not have been able to slide Purdy into place after Lance and Garoppolo went down with injuries --- and they would not now be preparing to extend the QB who has put up the second-best passer rating in the NFL (104.9) since 2022.

Purdy's rise must seem brutally unfair to teams that have been fruitlessly searching for a viable QB for years. No one is likely to ever repeat San Francisco's exact path to Purdy -- but teams can keep taking swings at the position, even when they seemingly have one (or more!) options on hand already.

DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 8 overall in 2024.

Shocking at first, the Falcons' decision to take Michael Penix Jr. with their first-round pick last year after signing Kirk Cousins started to seem pretty reasonable as Cousins' limitations became clear -- and it now looks downright brilliant. There are notable concerns here, including the current and future cap resources tied up in Cousins' contract and the chance that Penix ultimately fails to develop into a viable long-term starter. I would still rather be in the Falcons' shoes today -- knowing and (presumably) having a plan for how to best support Penix after his promising 2024 debut -- than contemplating whether to get in the mix for Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders while figuring out whether to again go with Cousins as QB1. This pick is perhaps the most extreme version of the QB-hoarding tactic that paid off similarly for the Eagles with Hurts and the Niners with Purdy.

DRAFTED: Round 1, No. 12 overall in 2024.

This is a bit odd to type, but I will proceed anyway: Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, Sean Payton hadn't spun true "QB guru" magic since he shepherded Drew Brees' evolution into a future Hall of Famer with the Saints. The one-year marriage with Russell Wilson in 2023 was a disaster. Things could still go sidewise with Nix, but for now, he helped put Payton and the Broncos back on solid ground with a largely positive rookie season.

Was Nix "overdrafted" as the sixth QB off the board at No. 12 overall? Maybe. That won't matter if Payton successfully molds Nix into a consistent winner for Denver. It is well worth it for a team to jump at a QB it has a vision for, regardless of draft slot. Like the Falcons with Penix, Payton and the Broncos are surely much better off being able to pin their future on Nix with some degree of confidence instead of searching for QB help in today's market.