Week 1 of the 2026 campaign arrives with zero rookie quarterbacks slated to start under center. In an age where first-year players are tossed into the fire early, it's a relative anomaly, marking just the second time in the past 19 seasons there have been no rookie QBs starting to open the season -- the previous instance coming in 2022 (aka the Kenny Pickett draft).
It's no surprise we won't have any rookie starting quarterbacks to start the season, though.
The Las Vegas Raiders telegraphed from the start that they'd prefer Fernando Mendoza open the campaign on the sideline. His preseason play didn't change that calculus. The Indiana product becomes the first No. 1 overall pick not to start since Baker Mayfield in 2018 and is just the third since 2008 (Jared Goff).
With the rest of the 10-player QB draft class buried behind veterans, it could be some time before we see a rookie under center.
Notably, every single drafted quarterback made his team's initial 53-man roster to open the season. Not even the late-rounders were waived in an attempt to sneak them through to waivers. Those decisions underscore the importance of developmental QBs. Two undrafted free agents -- Jalon Daniels and Joe Fagnano-- also made the initial 53, with Daniels winning the backup job behind Mayfield in Tampa Bay. As one of the few true first-year QB2s, Daniels actually has a clearer path to potential playing time than most of the drafted rookies.
After doing this exercise in April -- before we knew the schedule or how rosters would shake out -- let's follow up and see where each drafted rookie is post-preseason and when (if) they might see action in 2026.
Draft selection: No. 1 overall (first round)
Preseason Stats: 85 plays, 25-of-45 passing, 55.6%, 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 5.3 YPA, Long: 22 yards, 4 sacks
The No. 1 overall pick flashed a solid arm and fearlessness as a passer in extensive preseason action. However, there were rocky moments that underscore the strides he must make transitioning from a college offense to Klint Kubiak’s pro scheme.
It came as little surprise that several of Mendoza's miscues, including both preseason interceptions, came on under-center play-action calls. It’s one aspect of his transition that was a question mark coming out of the shotgun-prominent Indiana scheme. Mendoza showed strides in that area, given where he was starting, but he still has work to do.
The question for Kubiak will be balancing Mendoza’s development on the sideline with a need to get him live reps. No teacher is better than experience, but the player must also be ready. When will that be for Vegas? I initially pegged Week 5, but after looking at the schedule and watching Mendoza in the preseason, I’m bumping it slightly. The Raiders have a rough stretch from Weeks 4-7 (versus Kansas City, at New England, versus Buffalo, versus Los Angeles Rams). I still believe it behooves Mendoza to play extensively this season. If the Raiders stumble to 2-5 early, Kubiak could be forced to toss in the rookie and let their future learn on the fly.
Starting prediction: Week 8, 2026 ( at Jets)
Draft selection: No. 13 overall (first round)
Preseason stats: 111 plays, 47-of-60 passing, 78.3%, 382 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 6.4 YPA, Long: 24 yards, 0 sacks.
Simpson impressed during preseason action, showing excellent accuracy, including on the move -- his touchdown toss versus the Chargers was a thing of beauty -- good pocket movement and above-average processing speed. Not owning a cannon, Simpson's accuracy will be key to his growth, and for that, he showed good upside. However, he still has things to clean up, and the Rams' simplified scheme in the preseason didn't show any of the big-boy throws Sean McVay deploys with Matthew Stafford.
Simpson’s good preseason didn’t vault him in front of Stetson Bennett as Stafford’s primary backup, underscoring that the Alabama product still needs work. All in all, seeing Simpson perform, even in vanilla preseason settings, helps quiet the noise about L.A. using a first-round pick on a player who likely won't see time this season. But it doesn’t change the expected timeline.
Starting prediction: Compete for backup reps in 2027; full-time starter in 2028
Draft selection: No. 65 overall (third round)
Preseason stats: 40 plays, 15-of-19 passing, 78.9%, 188 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 9.9 YPA, Long: 49 yards, 1 sack
Beck flashed ability in the Hall of Fame Game, then sat out the rest of the preseason slate while nursing a rib injury. Yes, he wowed mostly against players who didn’t make the Panthers’ 53-man roster, but his accuracy and willingness to push the ball downfield will serve well if/when he gets tossed into action this year. The 24-year-old is a well-seasoned passer, and it showed in his one outing.
He was never going to push Jacoby Brissett off the starting job, and the injury ensured he wouldn’t bypass Gardner Minshew for the backup role. Still, there is enough intrigue that the third-rounder is almost sure to see time this season -- unless the Cards shock the prognostics and betting markets by contending for a playoff spot. I’d be tempted to toss him in early if things go sideways quickly. However, given the lack of reps, I doubt we’d see a move to the rookie before Halloween. There isn’t a real soft spot in the Cards schedule until post-Thanksgiving to give Beck a spin. My initial guess was Week 13, but with the Cards having a Week 14 bye, it might make more sense for the club to wait until Week 15 to play the Jets and give the rookie a four-game audition. They need to know what they have in Beck before the 2027 draft.
Starting prediction: Week 15 (vs. Jets)
Draft selection: No. 76 overall (third round)
Preseason stats: 98 plays, 30-of-54 passing, 55.6%, 351 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 6.5 YPA, Long: 74 yards, 3 sacks
Allar flashed early with an impressive first outing before things got more difficult for the third-round pick. His revamped mechanics look significantly improved from what he showed at Penn State. Allar showed the ability to drive the ball into tight spaces, in addition to good short-area strikes and solid pocket mobility. However, he struggled with accuracy, timing, and pressure. I like his upside more than Will Howard's, but the rookie needs time to fully get down his refurbished mechanics and learn the system.
If things completely fall apart in Pittsburgh, I could see them giving Allar a shot in Week 17 or 18. However, given the veteran roster, I don’t foresee them completely crumbling, which means it’s likely a needed redshirt year for Allar.
Starting prediction: In the mix for 2027
Draft selection: No. 110 overall (fourth round)
Preseason stats: 71 plays, 21-of-34 passing, 61.8%, 190 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 5.6 YPA, Long: 22 yards, 4 sacks
Klubnik turned heads in his first preseason performance, looking calm, poised, mobile and accurate to the outside. Things went downhill the rest of the exhibition season. His hesitance to target the middle of the field was glaring and he struggled with his mechanics under pressure. Like many rookies, he fell into the habit of holding the ball too long.
I’m surprised the Jets, with coach Aaron Glenn under pressure entering Year 2, trust Klubnik with the backup job behind Geno Smith instead of adding a veteran. As long as they stick with that plan, Klubnik has a legit shot at seeing more action than most of his class.
Starting prediction: Week 18, 2026, just to see.
Draft selection: No. 178 overall (fifth round)
Preseason stats: 19 plays, 5-of-12 passing, 41.7%, 47 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3.9 YPA, Long: 17 yards, 2 sacks
With the Eagles focusing on their backup competition between Tanner McKee and Andy Dalton, Payton didn’t get as many preseason reps as he could have, and, in reality, needed for his development. The dual threat showed some ability with his legs in limited action, but his throwing mechanics need work, and he’s currently a slow processor. Payton is a legit dual threat with prototypical size, but needs a ton of work. The NFL usually doesn’t have time for the type of development a player like him requires.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 182 overall (sixth round)
Preseason stats: 30 plays, 5-of-7 passing, 71.4%, 27 yards 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 3.9 YPA, Long: 9 yards
With the Browns embroiled in a QB competition above Green on the depth chart, the rookie didn’t see nearly the reps he needed. An enticing athlete, Green played only in the preseason finale and showed off his ability to run the ball -- eight carries for 66 yards -- but isn't much of a real quarterback at this stage. He bounces in the pocket, is quick to flee, and owns an elongated throwing motion. He'd need to clean up all of that before he's a viable backup. Green could be a future wildcat QB, but at this stage needs massive developmental strides to become serviceable. Given that the Browns are still trying to find their franchise QB, do they really have time to also develop a player like Green? I’m not optimistic.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 223 overall (seventh round)
Preseason stats: 119 snaps, 38-of-58 passing, 65.5%, 318 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 5.5 YPA, Long: 37 yards, 5 sacks
Morton flashed a little bit, showing poise in the pocket, never looking too small for the moment and displaying solid accuracy. He did have some turnover-worthy throws while trying to make plays, and his decision-making wavered. The rookie boasts good size and exhibited command in the pocket. His arm is fine but nothing spectacular. Also noteworthy was Morton’s ability to step in as an emergency punter. The more you can do, right? Lesser skills have gotten men backup roles in the past.
Starting prediction: Unlikely
Draft selection: No. 234 overall (seventh round)
Preseason stats: 135 plays, 44-of-70 passing, 62.9%, 370 yards, 0 TDs, 1INT, 5.3 YPA, Long: 20 yards, 2 sacks
Nussmeier looked like Patrick Mahomes' future backup during preseason action. The QB looked comfortable in the offense and showed accuracy on the move. At times he looked like Mahomes-lite rolling off play action and making throws off-balance. His quick whip and control of the offense portend positives for the future. We didn’t see many big plays, partly due to his surroundings and play-calling, and he had some issues under pressure. But Nussmeier looked solid. Assuming Mahomes makes it through the season unscathed, the rookie should be in line for QB2 duties in 2027 with Justin Fields set to be a free agent in the offseason.
Starting prediction: Spot start late in 2027
