Trading in fantasy football is more art than science, which is why NFL.com fantasy analyst Jason B. Hirschhorn is here to give managers some guidance. This week, Hirschhorn advises buying low on Nick Chubb and David Montgomery.
For fantasy managers, avoiding the overreaction to Week 1 can pay huge dividends. The entire football world collapsed upon the Cleveland Browns after their underwhelming play in Week 1. Likewise, the Tennessee Titans put up monster numbers that will enhance the perception of some of their players in fantasy. Some developments from the first week will hold over the course of the year, but many won't. Trust your evaluations from before the season and find the value available on the trade market.
Trade for:
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns: Though far from a poor performance, Nick Chubb didn't light the world on fire in the season opener, finishing with 17 carries for 75 yards and another 10 yards off three receptions. The Browns' offense will improve, but a panicky Chubb owner might overreact to Week 1 and the looming return of Kareem Hunt and deal the running back now. Pounce on him if you can and take advantage of Sunday's matchup with the Jets' defense.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears: For reasons that remain unclear, the Bears gave Mike Davis 12 combined carries and targets last Thursday while David Montgomery saw only seven. That split should change quickly as Montgomery establishes himself as the superior player. Chicago also has matchups with a few porous run defenses over the next month and change, which should help Montgomery live up to his pre-2019 evaluation.
Matt Breida, RB, San Francisco 49ers:Tevin Coleman suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 and will miss at least some time while he recovers. He might not have a starting job by the time he comes back, as Matt Breida showed last year how effective he can play in Kyle Shanahan's offense. If Breida plays to his capabilities, he has No. 2 running back potential in fantasy. And even if prospective Breida owners fear Coleman's eventual return, they can look to trade Breida later on after he boosts his value.
Trade away:
Eric Ebron, TE, Indianapolis Colts: Neither of the Colts' top tight ends produced well in the season opener, but the offense appears to have a pecking order in 2019. Jack Doyle received the lion's share of the work, playing 42 snaps compared to Eric Ebron's 25. Ebron generally went too early in fantasy drafts this year because of his highly unsustainable 13 touchdowns from a year ago. If you made that mistake, see if another team in your league still values Ebron that way.
Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: It only took one week for LeSean McCoy to establish himself as the better running back in Kansas City. McCoy saw fewer combined touches and targets than Damien Williams (11 versus 19), yet he still produced 28 more yards. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will shift more of the focus toward McCoy soon, perhaps as early as the team's Week 2 matchup with the Raiders.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans:Derrick Henry bolstered a solid Week 1 performance with a 75-yard catch and run that reached the end zone. That one play placed him above Dalvin Cook, David Johnson, and a host of other established fantasy running backs. Don't let one play fool you. Henry remains the same plodding, touchdown-dependent back from a season ago. The window to sell high might close quickly here.
Trade-call hotline:
Josh Gordon picked up right where he left off during the Patriots' first game, hauling in three passes for 73 yards and a touchdown. While you don't currently start Gordon and it remains unclear how Antonio Brown, who is being investigated for sexual assualt, will affect his value, he could become a starter for you later in the season. I don't have a problem trading Gordon given your wideout depth, though.
Still, Melvin Gordon and his camp have given no indication that he plans to return to the Chargers in the near future. For you to do this deal, you have to believe that Gordon will change course and report over the next few weeks or the Chargers will trade him to a new team. I don't feel confident enough in either scenario, so I would pass.
While I did recommend trading Williams above, I don't think this trade makes sense for you. The Packers' offense didn't perform well in Week 1 and might struggle again this Sunday against the Vikings' defense. Still, he has the most overall value of any player involved in the proposed deal and you have decent running backs in Aaron Jones and Montgomery. Dalvin Cook delivered one of the best games of his career, but he doesn't play the Falcons' defense every week and has trouble staying on the field.
You have the depth to cover for the loss of Kerryon Johnson and would get Julio Jones, the best player in the deal. The Falcons typically won't turn the ball over three times as they did in Week 1, so Jones shouldn't have much trouble producing his usual numbers. I like Christian Kirk's potential in the Cardinals' new offense, but not enough to kill the trade.
Go for it, Cole. Le'Veon Bell remains a high-volume monster after a year away from the NFL, and he doesn't have to play a defense as good as the Bills every week. Still, Mark Ingram should see plenty of work himself as Week 1 demonstrated. Those who read my Week 1 trade calls already know he has a high ceiling in the Ravens' offense. If you can land Ingram and a top wideout like Keenan Allen for just Bell, you'll probably end up on the right side of this deal.
*Jason B. Hirschhorn is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter: **@byJBH*
