Hear me and rejoice: Football is back!
No more burning the midnight oil mock-drafting until your phone dies. No more defending your zero-RB draft strategy while your group chat tries to dissuade you. No more internal conflicts about who to take with your first-round pick.
No more.
You've got your team. Now, the real work begins. Leagues are hardly ever won on draft night, and this year will be no different. The waiver wire must be walked ever so tightly, lest you find yourself at an IHOP with a 24-hour timer that goes down 60 minutes with each pancake consumed.
Week 1 always provides a precarious set of circumstances, but we must try our best to ascertain the fortunes told in even the foggiest of crystal balls.
A season full of sleepers is upon us. Here's the first batch.
NOTE: All statistics come courtesy of Next Gen Stats, unless otherwise noted.
QUARTERBACKS
Goff threw for at least 4,400 yards and 29 touchdowns in each of the last four seasons, never finishing lower than QB10 in fantasy. Over that entire time span, he comfortably led the league in passing yards and touchdowns. Perhaps it's time we all wake up and give the man his flowers. After all, this is about scoring fantasy points, not aura points.
New Orleans is a favorable opening draw for Goff and the 2026 Lions. Brandon Staley's defense ran zone at the third-highest rate in the league in 2025 (81.6%); Goff shredded zone all year long, racking up the second-most passing yards (3,425), touchdowns (19) and total fantasy points (191.0) against the defense, only trailing MVP winner Matthew Stafford in those categories. The Saints may have given up the fourth-fewest passing yards in football last year, but they've since lost Alontae Taylor and will be asking a lot more of their young corners. Advantage: Detroit.
If ever there were a time to buy low on a quarterback, it's right now with Kyler Murray. Heck, that's what the Vikings did by signing him to a veteran-minimum, one-year deal for $1.3 million. Thanks to offset language in Kyler's previous contract with the Cardinals, Arizona's decision to unceremoniously cut bait left the NFL world as Murray’s oyster. What better landing spot than Kevin O'Connell's quarterback rehab program?
It's hard to overstate how much the Micah Parsons-sized void on the edge hurts Green Bay's defense. After the perennial Pro Bowler's ACL tear last December, the Packers averaged nearly two fewer pressures per game while opposing quarterbacks scrambled 4.4% more often against them. Is there a quarterback who likes to scramble playing in this game? Oh, and Kyler is also facing off against the coach who essentially ended his run in Arizona, Jonathan Gannon, now the defensive coordinator in Green Bay. With no Micah and no shortage of motivation, Murray has real QB1 upside in Week 1.
RUNNING BACKS
Knuckles is free from the shadow of Sonic. Don't let the fact that Montgomery has posted career lows in yards in each of the last two seasons fool you. He had fewer than 15 rushes in all but two games in 2025. Now, he gets to be a lead back again. More carries, more yards, more points.
Buffalo ranked 28th in run defense last season (136.2 ypg), tying for last in rushing touchdowns allowed (24) while also finishing 27th in rush yards over expected per play (0.68), 28th in EPA per rush (0.05) and 32nd in yards after contact per carry (3.89). And I simply don't believe the Bills adequately addressed that aspect of their defense this offseason. I'm not saying Knuckles is going to put up Sonic numbers here, but there's a clear path to a productive day on the ground, especially on the goal line.
A popular high-upside draft pick, Tuten was the subject of many a fantasy debate this offseason. Is he the clear RB1 in Jacksonville? Did the Jaguars let Travis Etienne walk in free agency because they're that confident in the 2025 fourth-round pick? How does the addition of Chris Rodriguez Jr. affect his stock? We can't have all the answers.
Between the Jags' bye week and Tuten's finger injury (Weeks 9-15), the rookie back ranked seventh in success rate (47.8%) among RBs with at least 45 carries -- a better figure than peers like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Christian McCaffrey. He was the only back in football in that span (min. 45 carries) with negative yards before contact (-14) and was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on a league-high 60.9% of carries, yet he still turned in the league's fourth-highest missed tackles forced rate (32.6%) and eighth-most yards after contact per carry (3.6). If Tuten gets more pass-catching and goal-line work, he can easily be one of this season's breakouts.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Taking a rookie receiver is one of the unwritten fantasy football commandments, and it makes even more sense when you grab the highest-drafted wideout in the class. As a No. 4 overall pick with a pro-ready game, Tate provides instant promise as Tennessee's new "Z" receiver -- something Cam Ward desperately needed following a difficult rookie campaign.
New Titans OC Brian Daboll historically loves a ball magnet out wide, from Malik Nabers to Stefon Diggs. Just like those established studs, Tate can come down with any ball thrown his way. Projected target volume gives Tate a high enough floor, but the upside as a downfield threat puts his ceiling in the stratosphere. Ward making a sophomore jump certainly wouldn't hurt, either. Playing a defense that gave up the most passing touchdowns last year (36) -- without recording a single interception -- is a good place to start.
Something about these Ohio State receivers who were drafted fourth overall ... Harrison has been reduced to a flex option to open 2026, following a rookie season that didn't live up to sky-high expectations and a sophomore campaign marred by injuries and -- for lack of scientific explanation -- the yips. But I still believe in Marv.
Harrison's raw talent is undeniable, and I think new Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur has the chops to fully unlock that potential. With LaFleur as OC last season, the Rams tied for the league lead with an average of 9.2 air yards per attempt; Harrison ranked seventh among receivers in that category (min. 70 targets) at 13.6, so there's a path to downfield productivity. Jacoby Brissett averaged more than 40 passing attempts per start last season, and with Jeremiyah Love nursing an ankle injury, I expect plenty of passing on Sunday in Los Angeles. Even against a staunch secondary, Marv can restore his Maserati status. I'll even take a Mazda.
TIGHT ENDS
Remember what I wrote above about David Montgomery? I have the same sentiment about Likely: He's finally free to do his own thing in an offense conducive to immediate productivity. In Baltimore, it never felt like Likely truly separated from Mark Andrews, with the former never seeing more than 60 targets in a season despite an enticing athletic profile. Now, Likely might just be the Giants’ second-best pass catcher behind Malik Nabers.
The Cowboys have taken considerable strides to improve a defense that quite plainly ruined their season in 2025. But I'd like to see the new pieces in action before simply declaring that they'll be better, even if the bar is exceedingly low. In any case, Likely is John Harbaugh's guy; the coach brought the tight end with him to the Big Apple for a reason. He'll be a focal point of this passing attack, beginning on Sunday night.
Tyler Shough and Juwan Johnson first linked up in Eugene, Oregon, back in 2019, when the former was in the early stages of a seven-year college career and the latter was wrapping up his five seasons of CFB with the Ducks. Now, a rapport is blossoming in the Big Easy.
In 2025, Johnson posted career highs in catches (77) and yards (889), good for fifth and third, respectively, among tight ends. Only reaching the end zone three times soured his fantasy value, but a full season with Shough provides promise. In games Shough played last year, Johnson's figure of 1.9 yards per route run only ranked below the contemporaneous averages of George Kittle, Colston Loveland and Trey McBride among TEs, while his 9.9 yards per target led all players at the position (min. 200 routes in that span). Facing a Lions defense that gave up the fifth-most explosive plays to tight ends a year ago (24 of 20-plus yards), Johnson has clear TE1 upside in Week 1.
DEFENSES
It might be counterintuitive to list a defense that an aforementioned sleeper is playing against, but here we are. After giving up the most points in franchise history last season, the Cowboys performed an extreme defensive makeover: drafting do-it-all safety Caleb Downs and high-upside edge rusher Malachi Lawrence in the first round; acquiring a series of solid veterans via trade and free agency; and poaching Christian Parker from the Eagles to oversee it all. Add in the positive vibes of Quinnen Williams' nine-figure extension, and it certainly feels like winds of change are blowing into Dallas.
The Cowboys' D struggled mightily against the Giants last year, but things look different now for New York. Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo are both coming off serious injuries, Jaxson Dart has struggled to stay on the field, and Matt Nagy's offenses have left plenty to be desired in the past. This doesn't have to be the Cowboys' performance from the last time they opened the year on a Sunday night in New Jersey to be a streaming success.
Wait, another defense that caught flak earlier in this piece? A defense that just became the first unit in NFL history to go an entire season without an interception? This isn't a sleeper -- it's comatose.
But nothing that's bad stays bad forever, right? New York drafted David Bailey at No. 2 overall, traded for run stuffer T'Vondre Sweat and back-end bandit Minkah Fitzpatrick, and signed playmaker Nahshon Wright (five INTs last year) and veteran leader Demario Davis. Perhaps there's no better way to begin righting the ship than facing an offense that finished last season in the bottom three in points, total yards, rushing yards and passing yards, with a quarterback who led the league in sacks taken. Or perhaps this take will go down as a laugher. Better now than in December!
