With only a third-down conversion needed to seal a win over the Green Bay Packers, Todd Gurley raced past the sticks and promptly gave himself up just before the goal line. In doing so, the superstar running back eschewed the opportunity to add to his NFL-leading 15 touchdowns, an unselfish decision that garnered glowing praise from the announcers and his teammates. But while the maneuver preserved the Los Angeles Rams' undefeated season, it drew complaints from countless fans hoping for Gurley to pad his already impressive numbers as he chases the record books.
By any objective measure, Gurley has put together a remarkable individual campaign through the first half of 2018. The All-Pro has already amassed 800 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, the best such marks in the league. Even if he didn't record another carry the rest of the way, Gurley would top the leading rusher on 13 teams from a year ago and his rushing touchdowns would exceed that of all but two players from that season.
Gurley's success derives in no small part from the offensive scheme run by head coach Sean McVay. While many contemporary teams utilize various shotgun formations as their primary offense, McVay keeps his quarterback under center in non-obvious passing situations. In fact, 161 of Gurley's 169 totes this season have come with Jared Goff under center. This tactic, combined with Los Angeles' generous use of play action, have kept defenses from loading up against the run. Among backs with at least 100 carries, Gurley has run against the second most fronts with six or fewer defenders (48.5 percent of his carries) andthe fewest boxes with at least eight defenders (9.5 percent). Those clear paths have helped Gurley pile up rushing yardage and points.
Meanwhile, Gurley has also thrived as a receiver, hauling in 31 passes for 351 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. While far from the first running back to carve out a niche as a pass catcher, Gurley transcends the traditional notions of the position. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has played nearly 23 percent of his offensive snaps split out wide as a receiver through eight weeks, an unusually high number for a bell-cow back. With those opportunities augmenting his routes run from behind the offensive line, Gurley has become the eighth most targeted RB in the NFL.
The combination of Gurley's rushing and receiving dominance has put him in rare company. At his present pace, the fourth-year back projects to score 30 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns over 16 games. Only Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson has ever reached that threshold, scoring 31 touchdowns during his MVP-winning 2006 season. That mark has become the logical target for Gurley, who has the talent and organizational infrastructure to become the NFL's new TD king.
However, several hurdles stand in the way of Gurley and the touchdown crown. While he needs only a slight uptick in scoring production to match or exceed Tomlinson, the Rams' upcoming schedule could dampen his pace. Thus far, Gurley has faced just two run defenses currently ranked top-10 by Football Outsiders' DVOA. He'll see three more such units over the next five games, including road matchups with the New Orleans Saints (No. 2 run defense) and Chicago Bears (No. 3). That stretch could put enough of a dent in Gurley's scoring pace to derail his efforts.
But the more difficult obstacle could come from Gurley's own team. The Rams hold the early lead for the top spot in the NFC playoffs after an 8-0 start. Considering the ease of the division -- both the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers look like bottom feeders -- and the abundance of mediocrity within the conference, Los Angeles could conceivably lock up the No. 1 seed with multiple weeks left in the regular season. Only the Saints stand in a decent position to challenge the Rams at present, and the two teams face off on Sunday in Week 9. Should New Orleans fall, the road to the Super Bowl would almost certainly run through Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Locking in the top seed early would likely sound the death knell for Gurley's record chase. Under McVay, the Rams haven't exposed their star players in games deemed unimportant. The team sat Gurley as well as Jared Goff, Aaron Donald and other key starters during the 2017 season finale despite the No. 3 seed remaining in play. Los Angeles doubled down on that approach this past August, waiting until after the preseason to give the first-team offense its first live snaps. That precedent makes clear McVay's preference to preserve stars like Gurley for the playoffs rather than risk them in meaningless games, even if it means angering fans and fantasy players.
Of course, any missed games would quickly end Gurley's hopes of breaking Tomlinson's record. If the Rams sat him for even one week at the end of the season, Gurley would need to average roughly 2.3 touchdowns per game in order to make up the difference. That figure balloons to nearly 2.7 should Gurley rest for two games. Even in Los Angeles' high-powered offense, such numbers fall nearly completely outside the realm of possibility.
In the end, Gurley's decision to give himself up short of the goal line last Sunday might serve as a microcosm of the Rams season. Fans will demand every possible score with an eye on the record books, but the team remains focused on the greater goal: A Super Bowl win.
-- Jason B. Hirschhorn is a fantasy writer at NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter@byJBH.
